-
#60
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:10
-
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD?
The Mission Management Team decides -- the standard L-2 meeting is today, so they're already working. (At KSC, the MMT is chaired by Mike Moses...no change there.) They'll meet in the hold prior to tanking and decide -- as they always do -- whether or not to proceed.
There are decision points prior to the tanking meeting, too. They could choose earlier, in consultation with the weather folks (45th Wx Squadron and SMG), but there's no guarantee they would. The tanking meeting is generally when they decide.
-
#61
by
spacedog71
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:17
-
Nothing changing from my vantage point other than the rest of the weekend looking worse than my original forecast. I wouldn't even go with a 50/50 shot on Sunday.
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD? Does it take a 100% chance of negative conditions or something else? Do they wait until tanking at T-6 hours? Until RSS retract at T-11 hours?
(This is NASA, so I'm sure there's a 50-page document answering these questions in detail.)
it happened on november 4th, 2010 for STS-133.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/11/sts-133-live-attempt-one/and the 45th forecast the day before was (drum roll)... 80% against.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23118.msg655107#msg655107
-
#62
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:21
-
Or 99% against, depending on your source
-
#63
by
vanoord
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:26
-
-
#64
by
spacedog71
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:31
-
for those attempting to leverage statistics against friday, posts of the 45th's forecasts are archived in the forums as a matter of record.
slips/scrubs due to weather events in the past two years include STS-133 on 11/4/2010, STS-130 on 2/7/2010, STS-128 on 8/24/2009, and STS-127 from 7/11-13/2009.
(statistically, four out of the last seven launches have had at least one weather delay, and it took three tries to get an orbiter off of the ground the last time they tried a july launch.)
-
#65
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:32
-
Presumably the 40% probability prohibiting tanking was also a significant concern / contraint to tanking starting?
Probably not, since by the time they meet for tanking that 40% is much closer to 0 or 100.
-
#66
by
vanoord
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:36
-
Presumably the 40% probability prohibiting tanking was also a significant concern / contraint to tanking starting?
Probably not, since by the time they meet for tanking that 40% is much closer to 0 or 100.
That thought crossed my mind after I'd posted!
I suppose that in reality, as no decision has to be made until tanking, there's not much point in making that decision early, as the weather situation has the possibility of change between now and then.
-
#67
by
spacecane
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:18
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
-
#68
by
Orbiter
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:24
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
-
#69
by
spacecane
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:30
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
-
#70
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:32
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
The traditional pre-launch news conference is in about an hour -- if the MMT decided anything, we'll hear about it then.
Edit -- as Chris just posted, the MMT decided to continue (as expected):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=25342.msg767238#msg767238Re: range priority, the Delta/ULA folks have priority after the 10th. It's up to them and their customer whether they would yield to Shuttle.
-
#71
by
DaveJSC
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:37
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
Tell your friend to stop telling you nonsense. And this site reported the GUCP issue way before 20 minutes on the official announcement, so I doubt he did more than read this site and pretend he's in the loop.
Don't post stupid rumors which aren't true on here.
-
#72
by
spacecane
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:43
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
Tell your friend to stop telling you nonsense. And this site reported the GUCP issue way before 20 minutes on the official announcement, so I doubt he did more than read this site and pretend he's in the loop.
Don't post stupid rumors which aren't true on here.
If I knew it wasn't true or thought it was a rumor then I wouldn't have posted it. The way he told me sounded legit. I do apologize.
Back to the weather.......
-
#73
by
Chris Bergin
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:45
-
Whoa, everyone calm down.
Welcome to the site's forum Spacecane. Yeah, that's not true, and that certainly isn't something that's come from SSP. However, I assume that is good news for you then!
Usually best to ask, rather than say "I'm the bringer of bad news" when it's not news in the first place
-
#74
by
stuart_wildcat
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:53
-
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 70%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers/Thunderstorms within 20NM of the SLF, Flight Through Precipitation, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
With these chances I doubt they would delay for weather until in the T-9 minute hold and it is obvious that they can't launch due to weather. These chances show that tanking is very unlikely to have weather problems. They are going to tank and proceed to launch because these chances are just that, chances. If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.
For all of our desire to get an "early" delay so traffic isn't bad, buses don't go to causeway, etc I don't think weather will fit into that category. It almost never has. Especially with the conflicts on the range with the Delta I'm sure they are going to do everything they can to use the days they have available. Imagine "wasting" one of those days with an early weather scrub and then it turns out weather wouldn't have been a constraint.
Also, no use in thinking "maybe they will delay Friday before tanking because chances Sat. and Sun. are better". Assuming no changes to the Delta schedule, the only way they have two guaranteed chances is Fri/Sun if you factor in likely 48 hour delays when it comes late due to weather.
-
#75
by
mheney
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:24
-
Add to that the fact that getting a "+1" day on the mission depends in part on launching on time Friday, with fully topped-off fuel cell cryo tanks. And the above-mentioned Delta conflict after Sunday. There's every reason to work toward a Friday launch - it maximizes what they get out of this last mission.
That said, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the weather to be just good enough for them to go this weekend.
-
#76
by
joseamatos
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:29
-
:-[Why does nature has to be so cure?!
-
#77
by
Chris Bergin
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:31
-
:-[Why does nature has to be so cure?!
Cruel? I think those who people in the southern states might have something to say about that with the tornados and such!
-
#78
by
mheney
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:38
-
Better question is "Why did they build a spaceport in a place with such lousy weather?"
-
#79
by
Orbiter
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:45
-
Atlantis hasn't scrubbed since November 2007, doesn't look Atlantis will maintain that track record.
Orbiter
