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#20
by
shuttlefanatic
on 05 Jul, 2011 16:32
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go
Well, forecasting has made a few strides since the 80's so odds are extremely remote of that happening these days. Plus NSF didn't have a staff meteorologist back then 
Well, shoot. How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday?
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#21
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 16:35
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
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#22
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 16:40
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Well, shoot. How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday?
I can be purchased at a reasonable rate! However I may take advantage of that leftover 20% chance of no-go
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#23
by
gfagley
on 05 Jul, 2011 17:51
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I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
there where launches that had a 100% no-go before.. can't remember the number but I remember that they where prepping for launch and the news crews where wondering whey they where trying to do the countdown knowing it was a 100% no-go but just before the planned launch time the weather cleared up and they launched.. surprised everyone..
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#24
by
jjnodice
on 05 Jul, 2011 18:24
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
Probably belongs in another thread, but was 51-I one of those missions? The one where Engle called out during the roll maneuver "That cloud is black!"
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#25
by
wechose
on 05 Jul, 2011 18:58
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I always enjoy other posters sense of humor on this site!
watched Kathy Winters giving her update today.......... that NASA spirit will never die!
as usual she based the odds based on a "GO" rather than a "NO GO"
Glass is always half full from NASA,never half empty..don't you just love them?
Kathy is just one of many faces i have grown to love from the Pressers on NTV,We are losing old friends all the time,not just the Orbiters.
best of luck to all who have made hugh efforts to see 135 launch Friday.
Kathy if You read this i hope You are disgraced by Your forecast, just this once!
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#26
by
PostScript
on 05 Jul, 2011 19:03
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
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#27
by
STS-134
on 05 Jul, 2011 19:11
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
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#28
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 05 Jul, 2011 19:22
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
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#29
by
wolfpack
on 05 Jul, 2011 20:03
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
If you built a shuttle launch facility on Wallops Island you could shoot it that way. But I don't think the rollback from 39A to the Virginia Coast could be done in 12 hours.
Let's just hope the weatherman(lady) is wrong on Friday!
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#30
by
jbirdav8r
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:00
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
And a little common sense...astros are not superhuman. Would you want them to fly a night TAL into Timbuktu when they'd been up for ~20 hours?!
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#31
by
janmb
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:16
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If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
As noted earlier, a 48-hour delay is seen as likely since the intense amount of traffic from all the launch viewers will make it difficult for workers to get home and rest before they have to come back.
Keep in mind that this all depends on why the scrub occurs and more importantly how early the scrub is called... Then again, a weather scrub, should there be go for tanking, would be a late decision I guess, making the 48h scenario more likely. But as others have pointed out, that decision will clearly largely depend on the weather prognosis for the weekend, from a Friday perspective - at which point the forecast should at least be somewhat less unreliable than it is 3-4 days out.
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#32
by
LendMeYourYears
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:21
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad? (Rain, wind and temperature may all be dealt with by manning up.
)
Operational concerns come first obviously, but it'd be slightly less poetic (or more [tragically] poetic for those mourning the last STS) if Atlantis' uphill ride was obscured by clouds...
..which seems to be the case according to the 45th Squadron's cumulus and altocumulus forecasts.
Having said that - there were some
RIDICULOUSLY good shots of 134's plume shadow on the clouds...
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#33
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:32
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
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#34
by
SkierDude
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:33
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Hi. How long is the window, by the way? If Fri is scrubbed, then Sat/Sun, do they go in to the following week? I read somewhere that they'd have to wait 2 wks due to another rocket launch.
I'm supposed to return Sat, but might change plans at home and try to stay to Sun. Probably a good idea... Maybe make a refundable plane reservation for the next window too.
Thanks.
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#35
by
Orbiter
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:46
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If there's a scrub on Sunday, they'll stand down to the 16th of July due to conflict with a Delta IV rocket.
Orbiter
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#36
by
LendMeYourYears
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:50
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
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#37
by
STS-134
on 05 Jul, 2011 22:40
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
What are they concerned about, an SRB falling through someone's roof in Freeport? (Do the SRBs even have enough fuel to reach Freeport?). Freeport is about 187mi/300km downrange of TTS. Supposedly SRB impact normally occurs about 226km downrange, which gives an almost 75km cushion to make sure that the SRBs don't go falling through someone's roof.
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#38
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 22:45
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Launch times, southeast trajectories, and TALs are all covered in Q&A and other threads. This is weather only, which doesn't care.
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#39
by
TJL
on 05 Jul, 2011 23:35
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Speaking of poor visibility, does anyone remember the launch conditions for the very first ISS crew on Soyuz TM 31?
The fog was so thick, the stack and exhaust was visible for no more than 5 seconds. With the exception of Apollo 12, and STS 51-I, that must have been the shortest view of a manned launch.
)