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STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
by
rdale
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:29
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#1
by
Orbiter
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:35
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Basing this off experience - but FL thunderstorms normally don't get a cranking until 4-5 pm. I think 11 am by that time the sea-breeze will be pushing any thunderstorms inland.
Orbiter
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#2
by
rdale
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:41
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That would normally be the case, but there is so much moisture around that it'll likely be fairly cloudy much of the day with generic showers in the morning too.
On the plus side - not as much worry about extreme heat and sunburn issues!
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#3
by
robertross
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:50
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That would normally be the case, but there is so much moisture around that it'll likely be fairly cloudy much of the day with generic showers in the morning too.
On the plus side - not as much worry about extreme heat and sunburn issues!
And brush fires...
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#4
by
rdale
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:52
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True - here's the latest drought monitor for Florida.
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#5
by
psloss
on 04 Jul, 2011 15:21
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Good news and bad news...
Will be interesting to see what they get at the end of the week, but I'll take weather uncertainty over hardware uncertainty.
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#6
by
stuart_wildcat
on 04 Jul, 2011 23:13
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Basing this off experience - but FL thunderstorms normally don't get a cranking until 4-5 pm. I think 11 am by that time the sea-breeze will be pushing any thunderstorms inland.
Orbiter
We went on one of the guided tours Saturday (been trying to see each shuttle on the pad before launch) and the tour guide said that a few days before they couldn't even get off the bus for the 1.75 hour tour because of lightning. This was during the middle of the day 10-11 AM and stayed that way most of the day.
Even though the joke is "it rains every day in Florida" there are slight cycles in the chances. Unfortunately it looks like we will be in the wrong end of a cycle for the first attempt.
The sea-breeze might only affect the direction they are moving at any one time and not prevent them from forming altogether. The launch commit criteria might not give us as much flexibility as we would like.
If someone was taking bets I would bet that weather will delay us at least once. Hate to say that but better that everyone expects this and has plans in place for weather delays.
Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
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#7
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 00:42
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Right now I'd say 20% chance of acceptable launch weather on Friday, ramping up to about 40% by Sunday.
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#8
by
dahacker
on 05 Jul, 2011 02:11
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Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
I've heard through an inside rumor that it likely will be no faster than a three day delay if there is any kind of last minute scrub for any reason. The theory being that traffic around the launch attempt will be so bad that it will take extreme amounts of time for workers to return home and come back for their next shift. I've got reservations through Tuesday.
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#9
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 03:06
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That seems too extreme, as that would eliminate the entire 8-10 option. I can't imagine it would take 12+ hours for a trip home?
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#10
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 05 Jul, 2011 03:17
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Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
I've heard through an inside rumor that it likely will be no faster than a three day delay if there is any kind of last minute scrub for any reason. The theory being that traffic around the launch attempt will be so bad that it will take extreme amounts of time for workers to return home and come back for their next shift. I've got reservations through Tuesday.
Lets keep this particular humor mill closed, shall we. The as-of-3pm-Monday-afternoon option was: scrub before L-4hrs and the possibility for a 24hr scrub turnaround (depending on why we scrubbed) would be entertained. Scrub within 30mins either way of L-4hrs and the launch team would seriously look at turnaround options based on why we scrubbed. Scrub after L-4hrs (and certainly at T-9mins and holding) and it would most certainly be a NET 48-hr turnaround based with deference as to why we scrubbed.
Those are the facts, so we will as a site keep it at that.
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#11
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 11:51
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Launch weather forecast is out on L2, but they're also doing the morning weather briefing...today's look at Friday forecast for launch time:
Should get the info set a little later and a media briefing at 10 am Eastern.
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#12
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:07
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SMG forecast from today for launch time on Friday:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0RTLS forecast is for thunderstorms within 20 nautical miles of the SLF. TALs have a good forecast.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT TUESDAY JULY 05 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT120 BKN250 7 21006P10
TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW040 7 34006P09
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 29005P08
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 7 19008P12
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SCT200 7 15006P09
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW SKC 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 06/1200Z
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
HOETH/WILEY/HOOD
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#13
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:18
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Launch weather forecast is out on L2, but they're also doing the morning weather briefing...today's look at Friday forecast for launch time:
Should get the info set a little later and a media briefing at 10 am Eastern.
45th Weather Squadron forecast is out publicly now:
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf
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#14
by
cd-slam
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:24
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Ugh. But Sunday looks good, 70% go, perhaps NASA might go straight into a 48 hour scrub if Friday doesn't work out?
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#15
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:40
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Ugh. But Sunday looks good, 70% go, perhaps NASA might go straight into a 48 hour scrub if Friday doesn't work out?
It depends on the situation on Friday; we'll have to wait to see.
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#16
by
mirak
on 05 Jul, 2011 13:43
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Just because its rainy or overcast, that doesn't necessarily preclude a launch, right?
If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
I'm not really looking forward to getting up at the crack of dawn and driving out to the Causeway to sit in the rain, all the while knowing its very unlikely the launch will occur. And I sure as heck hope we don't have to do that 3 days in a row! Personally, I think its worth it, but my family would never let me hear the end of it! this is supposed to be our vacation!
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#17
by
kimmern123
on 05 Jul, 2011 14:11
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know
I know the forecasts of today are vastly more accurate and detailed than in the early days of the Shuttle-program, but I think it gives a good example of the unpredictable weather in Florida.
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#18
by
Nickolai
on 05 Jul, 2011 14:22
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If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
As noted earlier, a 48-hour delay is seen as likely since the intense amount of traffic from all the launch viewers will make it difficult for workers to get home and rest before they have to come back.
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#19
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 14:35
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go
Well, forecasting has made a few strides since the 80's so odds are extremely remote of that happening these days. Plus NSF didn't have a staff meteorologist back then
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#20
by
shuttlefanatic
on 05 Jul, 2011 16:32
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go
Well, forecasting has made a few strides since the 80's so odds are extremely remote of that happening these days. Plus NSF didn't have a staff meteorologist back then
Well, shoot. How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday?
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#21
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 16:35
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
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#22
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 16:40
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Well, shoot. How much do we have to pay you to issue, say, an 80% go forecast for Friday?
I can be purchased at a reasonable rate! However I may take advantage of that leftover 20% chance of no-go
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#23
by
gfagley
on 05 Jul, 2011 17:51
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I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
there where launches that had a 100% no-go before.. can't remember the number but I remember that they where prepping for launch and the news crews where wondering whey they where trying to do the countdown knowing it was a 100% no-go but just before the planned launch time the weather cleared up and they launched.. surprised everyone..
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#24
by
jjnodice
on 05 Jul, 2011 18:24
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know
I've seen references for 90% no-go, and that was with a big caveat...which launch(es) went with 100% no-go?
Probably belongs in another thread, but was 51-I one of those missions? The one where Engle called out during the roll maneuver "That cloud is black!"
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#25
by
wechose
on 05 Jul, 2011 18:58
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I always enjoy other posters sense of humor on this site!
watched Kathy Winters giving her update today.......... that NASA spirit will never die!
as usual she based the odds based on a "GO" rather than a "NO GO"
Glass is always half full from NASA,never half empty..don't you just love them?
Kathy is just one of many faces i have grown to love from the Pressers on NTV,We are losing old friends all the time,not just the Orbiters.
best of luck to all who have made hugh efforts to see 135 launch Friday.
Kathy if You read this i hope You are disgraced by Your forecast, just this once!
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#26
by
PostScript
on 05 Jul, 2011 19:03
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
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#27
by
STS-134
on 05 Jul, 2011 19:11
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
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#28
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 05 Jul, 2011 19:22
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
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#29
by
wolfpack
on 05 Jul, 2011 20:03
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
If you built a shuttle launch facility on Wallops Island you could shoot it that way. But I don't think the rollback from 39A to the Virginia Coast could be done in 12 hours.
Let's just hope the weatherman(lady) is wrong on Friday!
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#30
by
jbirdav8r
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:00
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
And a little common sense...astros are not superhuman. Would you want them to fly a night TAL into Timbuktu when they'd been up for ~20 hours?!
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#31
by
janmb
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:16
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If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
As noted earlier, a 48-hour delay is seen as likely since the intense amount of traffic from all the launch viewers will make it difficult for workers to get home and rest before they have to come back.
Keep in mind that this all depends on why the scrub occurs and more importantly how early the scrub is called... Then again, a weather scrub, should there be go for tanking, would be a late decision I guess, making the 48h scenario more likely. But as others have pointed out, that decision will clearly largely depend on the weather prognosis for the weekend, from a Friday perspective - at which point the forecast should at least be somewhat less unreliable than it is 3-4 days out.
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#32
by
LendMeYourYears
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:21
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad? (Rain, wind and temperature may all be dealt with by manning up.
)
Operational concerns come first obviously, but it'd be slightly less poetic (or more [tragically] poetic for those mourning the last STS) if Atlantis' uphill ride was obscured by clouds...
..which seems to be the case according to the 45th Squadron's cumulus and altocumulus forecasts.
Having said that - there were some
RIDICULOUSLY good shots of 134's plume shadow on the clouds...
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#33
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:32
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
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#34
by
SkierDude
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:33
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Hi. How long is the window, by the way? If Fri is scrubbed, then Sat/Sun, do they go in to the following week? I read somewhere that they'd have to wait 2 wks due to another rocket launch.
I'm supposed to return Sat, but might change plans at home and try to stay to Sun. Probably a good idea... Maybe make a refundable plane reservation for the next window too.
Thanks.
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#35
by
Orbiter
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:46
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If there's a scrub on Sunday, they'll stand down to the 16th of July due to conflict with a Delta IV rocket.
Orbiter
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#36
by
LendMeYourYears
on 05 Jul, 2011 21:50
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
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#37
by
STS-134
on 05 Jul, 2011 22:40
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If there is a scrub what would the launch time change by? Is it 10 minutes earlier per day?
I think it's about 23-25 minutes earlier each day. Technically there are two launch windows per day (think of the station orbiting the Earth...KSC passes underneath this orbit TWICE per day, once with the orbit heading NE and the other with the orbit heading SE)...but NASA won't launch to the SE, which means only one usable launch window per day. I don't get why they couldn't, in theory, just set up some TAL sites in Africa though, which would allow for an approximately 12 hr turnaround in the event of a scrub.
A simple and quick search for facts would help here.
It has absolutely nothing to do with TALs to the SE. And for the record, African TALs served a VAST majority of the Shuttle Program.
NASA is not allowed to launch SE of KSC because of that pesky little rule that doesn't let you fly over land and populated areas - which for a SE launch would involve endangering the residents of the Bahamas.
What are they concerned about, an SRB falling through someone's roof in Freeport? (Do the SRBs even have enough fuel to reach Freeport?). Freeport is about 187mi/300km downrange of TTS. Supposedly SRB impact normally occurs about 226km downrange, which gives an almost 75km cushion to make sure that the SRBs don't go falling through someone's roof.
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#38
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 22:45
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Launch times, southeast trajectories, and TALs are all covered in Q&A and other threads. This is weather only, which doesn't care.
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#39
by
TJL
on 05 Jul, 2011 23:35
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Speaking of poor visibility, does anyone remember the launch conditions for the very first ISS crew on Soyuz TM 31?
The fog was so thick, the stack and exhaust was visible for no more than 5 seconds. With the exception of Apollo 12, and STS 51-I, that must have been the shortest view of a manned launch.
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#40
by
jbirdav8r
on 06 Jul, 2011 01:21
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Hang on - while everyone's talking about weather from the LCC perspective, what's the take on visibility (cloud base+ceiling) for the millions of people who're going to be around the launch pad?
It's impossible to predict cloud locations 3 days away... There is an attempt by USAF & SMG already posted a bit back though if you want.
Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
In aviation, forecast visibility is always expressed as "better than six statute miles." It'll likely be better than that.
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#41
by
STS-134
on 06 Jul, 2011 01:35
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Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
In aviation, forecast visibility is always expressed as "better than six statute miles." It'll likely be better than that.
What would you prefer? No haze, but the Shuttle disappears into the clouds 20-25 seconds after launch (like happened on STS-134), or 7-10 miles visibility through haze but otherwise clear skies at the time of launch?
I would guess that, as the Shuttle ascends, it would get easier to see for people especially in the northern areas (Titusville, etc.) because you aren't looking through as much humidity? Most of the really humid, hazy air is in the lowest 2 miles of the atmosphere, correct?
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#42
by
Andrewwski
on 06 Jul, 2011 01:50
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Yup - any word on haze? I read Visibility of 7 miles...which just puts causeway near the edge...
In aviation, forecast visibility is always expressed as "better than six statute miles." It'll likely be better than that.
What would you prefer? No haze, but the Shuttle disappears into the clouds 20-25 seconds after launch (like happened on STS-134), or 7-10 miles visibility through haze but otherwise clear skies at the time of launch?
I would guess that, as the Shuttle ascends, it would get easier to see for people especially in the northern areas (Titusville, etc.) because you aren't looking through as much humidity? Most of the really humid, hazy air is in the lowest 2 miles of the atmosphere, correct?
Yep. STS-118 was a hazy day. I was in Titusville and the view of the pad was a bit blurred by haze. But by the time Endeavour was a few degrees high, it was much, much clearer.
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#43
by
wingsofdana
on 06 Jul, 2011 02:53
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My hubby is currently working a TAL site in Spain......my concern is more selfish than anything. When will the most accurate forecast be available? And how high is the probabilities of a Saturday or Sunday launch?
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#44
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 02:54
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#45
by
wingsofdana
on 06 Jul, 2011 02:56
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Thank you for your response. I was hoping for something more.....but, ok. I am seeing that most of the storms occurring in the area will be after the noon hour....hoping it holds true. Still alot of time left for the sea breezes to reposition as well. Fingers crossed for a Friday launch!
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#46
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 03:00
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I appreciate your excitement about the forecast but there's only so much that can be done in the real world. You are asking someone to predict the location of a possible thunderstorm 60+ hours away. That's physically impossible. At this time odds are against a Friday launch.
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#47
by
wingsofdana
on 06 Jul, 2011 03:20
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How about this one..........What is the probability of wind shear tearing the tropical wave apart?
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#48
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 03:26
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I hate to seem negative - but I'm not quite sure what you are asking. There is a 20-40% chance of launching on Friday. That covers all possible weather outcomes at this point.
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#49
by
STS-134
on 06 Jul, 2011 03:27
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How about this one..........What is the probability of wind shear tearing the tropical wave apart?
I doubt that would ever happen. Wind shear simply prevents waves from developing further (into cyclones, for example), or weakens cyclones back into tropical depressions and tropical waves, but wind shear normally isn't enough to suppress the wave itself. And unfortunately for Shuttle launches, it doesn't take organized cyclone activity to cause a scrub.
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#50
by
mixologist07
on 06 Jul, 2011 03:32
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The thing to remember: 20-40% of acceptable weather Friday. You never know what may happen. This is one of those times of the year where the weather pattern changes frequently and can really surprise you. It makes it hard to predict this far out.
Hang on and remember that there's nothing that anyone, even top-notch forecasters like Mr. Dale, can do to get a 100% accurate picture until we're right up on top of it and the systems and movement of the day can be predicted based on realtime data.
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#51
by
Captain Kirk
on 06 Jul, 2011 04:14
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The thing to remember: 20-40% of acceptable weather Friday. You never know what may happen. This is one of those times of the year where the weather pattern changes frequently and can really surprise you. It makes it hard to predict this far out.
Hang on and remember that there's nothing that anyone, even top-notch forecasters like Mr. Dale, can do to get a 100% accurate picture until we're right up on top of it and the systems and movement of the day can be predicted based on realtime data.
Agreed! But I am amazed at the high accuracy of the predictions on weather in the 24 - 36 hour time frame, even in places like Florida. Forecasters like Mr. Dale do a great job - and many times - a thankless job, too.
We still love and respect you, rdale, whether its "go!" or "no-go" on Friday.
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#52
by
LendMeYourYears
on 06 Jul, 2011 10:52
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Just to get a
mathematical statistical angle on this
@rdale : Don't expect you to know this off the bat - but I guess you could guess. What's the maximum sigma variation that you guys have had thus far between the 48-72 hour forecast, and actual weather? I'm not making a judgement on the models, but would just like to have a rough idea of the error bars (on whichever parameter)
(Btw: Just learnt this from talking to someone from Tessella at the UK Space conference yesterday - Mars atmospheric models for the Beagle-2 were off by about 4 sigma - led to real problems in EDL parachute deployment.
Oh..He also told me that bankers claim that the financial crisis of not so long ago was described as a 27 sigma event. Now I leave it to you to judge the
economists gamblers, if they know what they're doing, if they even HAVE a VAGUE model:P)
(Sigma btw - is standard deviation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:6_Sigma_Normal_Distribution.jpg)
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#53
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 11:40
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Hmm, is there a way you could use that in a sentence for me? I've seen sigma referred to in particular storm features (i.e. "The 500mb heights are 4 sigmas deeper than the mean for this time of year") but not sure how you would phrase it with "My high forecast of 89* could be 4 sigmas off"?
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#54
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 11:51
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Morning forecast from SMG. Not much change... RTLS forecast has showers and thunderstorms, as relating to the launch window on Friday.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JULY 06 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P12
SHRA/TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW040 7 34006P09
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 32005P08
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 7 18008P12
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SCT200 7 15006P09
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW SKC 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 07/1130Z
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#55
by
vanoord
on 06 Jul, 2011 12:25
-
@NASA on Twitter:
Updated STS-135 weather forecast - there is a 30 percent chance of favorable weather for Friday’s 11:26 a.m. EDT launch of shuttle Atlantis.
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#56
by
LostInSpace
on 06 Jul, 2011 12:30
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Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 70%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers/Thunderstorms within 20NM of the SLF, Flight Through Precipitation, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
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#57
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 12:42
-
For the synopsis, etc., the 45th Weather Squadron forecast is available here:
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdfLooks like with the showers now in the forecast, that brings the flight through precip violation on the launch side.
Also looks like the forecast is for a little worse weather on Saturday and Sunday...looks like that's with the forecast for the wave to stall.
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 70%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers/Thunderstorms within 20NM of the SLF, Flight Through Precipitation, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
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#58
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 12:52
-
Nothing changing from my vantage point other than the rest of the weekend looking worse than my original forecast. I wouldn't even go with a 50/50 shot on Sunday.
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#59
by
jsmjr
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:03
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Nothing changing from my vantage point other than the rest of the weekend looking worse than my original forecast. I wouldn't even go with a 50/50 shot on Sunday.
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD? Does it take a 100% chance of negative conditions or something else? Do they wait until tanking at T-6 hours? Until RSS retract at T-11 hours?
(This is NASA, so I'm sure there's a 50-page document answering these questions in detail.)
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#60
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:10
-
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD?
The Mission Management Team decides -- the standard L-2 meeting is today, so they're already working. (At KSC, the MMT is chaired by Mike Moses...no change there.) They'll meet in the hold prior to tanking and decide -- as they always do -- whether or not to proceed.
There are decision points prior to the tanking meeting, too. They could choose earlier, in consultation with the weather folks (45th Wx Squadron and SMG), but there's no guarantee they would. The tanking meeting is generally when they decide.
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#61
by
spacedog71
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:17
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Nothing changing from my vantage point other than the rest of the weekend looking worse than my original forecast. I wouldn't even go with a 50/50 shot on Sunday.
Question about process: As the forecast seems to be worsening as we get closer to the original launch window, there presumably comes a point where they make a pre-emptive decision not to try, right? Since we're beyond the last FRR, is this a decision by the NTD? Does it take a 100% chance of negative conditions or something else? Do they wait until tanking at T-6 hours? Until RSS retract at T-11 hours?
(This is NASA, so I'm sure there's a 50-page document answering these questions in detail.)
it happened on november 4th, 2010 for STS-133.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/11/sts-133-live-attempt-one/and the 45th forecast the day before was (drum roll)... 80% against.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=23118.msg655107#msg655107
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#62
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:21
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Or 99% against, depending on your source
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#63
by
vanoord
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:26
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#64
by
spacedog71
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:31
-
for those attempting to leverage statistics against friday, posts of the 45th's forecasts are archived in the forums as a matter of record.
slips/scrubs due to weather events in the past two years include STS-133 on 11/4/2010, STS-130 on 2/7/2010, STS-128 on 8/24/2009, and STS-127 from 7/11-13/2009.
(statistically, four out of the last seven launches have had at least one weather delay, and it took three tries to get an orbiter off of the ground the last time they tried a july launch.)
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#65
by
rdale
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:32
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Presumably the 40% probability prohibiting tanking was also a significant concern / contraint to tanking starting?
Probably not, since by the time they meet for tanking that 40% is much closer to 0 or 100.
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#66
by
vanoord
on 06 Jul, 2011 13:36
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Presumably the 40% probability prohibiting tanking was also a significant concern / contraint to tanking starting?
Probably not, since by the time they meet for tanking that 40% is much closer to 0 or 100.
That thought crossed my mind after I'd posted!
I suppose that in reality, as no decision has to be made until tanking, there's not much point in making that decision early, as the weather situation has the possibility of change between now and then.
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#67
by
spacecane
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:18
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
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#68
by
Orbiter
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:24
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
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#69
by
spacecane
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:30
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
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#70
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:32
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
The traditional pre-launch news conference is in about an hour -- if the MMT decided anything, we'll hear about it then.
Edit -- as Chris just posted, the MMT decided to continue (as expected):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=25342.msg767238#msg767238Re: range priority, the Delta/ULA folks have priority after the 10th. It's up to them and their customer whether they would yield to Shuttle.
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#71
by
DaveJSC
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:37
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
Tell your friend to stop telling you nonsense. And this site reported the GUCP issue way before 20 minutes on the official announcement, so I doubt he did more than read this site and pretend he's in the loop.
Don't post stupid rumors which aren't true on here.
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#72
by
spacecane
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:43
-
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (and it's bad news for me personally) but I'm hearing a high likelihood of 48 hour delay. I hope they negotiate for the range priority from Delta iv if they can't launch Sunday.
Where did you hear this?
Orbiter
Friend at KSC that has a good friend in Shuttle Program. Same person that told me about STS-133 GUCP scrub 20 minutes before announcement. Keeping my fingers crossed it doesn't happen. He didn't say definite and info was from before the L-2 meeting
Tell your friend to stop telling you nonsense. And this site reported the GUCP issue way before 20 minutes on the official announcement, so I doubt he did more than read this site and pretend he's in the loop.
Don't post stupid rumors which aren't true on here.
If I knew it wasn't true or thought it was a rumor then I wouldn't have posted it. The way he told me sounded legit. I do apologize.
Back to the weather.......
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#73
by
Chris Bergin
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:45
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Whoa, everyone calm down.
Welcome to the site's forum Spacecane. Yeah, that's not true, and that certainly isn't something that's come from SSP. However, I assume that is good news for you then!
Usually best to ask, rather than say "I'm the bringer of bad news" when it's not news in the first place
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#74
by
stuart_wildcat
on 06 Jul, 2011 14:53
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Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 70%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers/Thunderstorms within 20NM of the SLF, Flight Through Precipitation, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 40%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10%
Primary concern(s): Showers within 20NM of the SLF, Cumulus Clouds
With these chances I doubt they would delay for weather until in the T-9 minute hold and it is obvious that they can't launch due to weather. These chances show that tanking is very unlikely to have weather problems. They are going to tank and proceed to launch because these chances are just that, chances. If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.
For all of our desire to get an "early" delay so traffic isn't bad, buses don't go to causeway, etc I don't think weather will fit into that category. It almost never has. Especially with the conflicts on the range with the Delta I'm sure they are going to do everything they can to use the days they have available. Imagine "wasting" one of those days with an early weather scrub and then it turns out weather wouldn't have been a constraint.
Also, no use in thinking "maybe they will delay Friday before tanking because chances Sat. and Sun. are better". Assuming no changes to the Delta schedule, the only way they have two guaranteed chances is Fri/Sun if you factor in likely 48 hour delays when it comes late due to weather.
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#75
by
mheney
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:24
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Add to that the fact that getting a "+1" day on the mission depends in part on launching on time Friday, with fully topped-off fuel cell cryo tanks. And the above-mentioned Delta conflict after Sunday. There's every reason to work toward a Friday launch - it maximizes what they get out of this last mission.
That said, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the weather to be just good enough for them to go this weekend.
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#76
by
joseamatos
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:29
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:-[Why does nature has to be so cure?!
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#77
by
Chris Bergin
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:31
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:-[Why does nature has to be so cure?!
Cruel? I think those who people in the southern states might have something to say about that with the tornados and such!
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#78
by
mheney
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:38
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Better question is "Why did they build a spaceport in a place with such lousy weather?"
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#79
by
Orbiter
on 06 Jul, 2011 15:45
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Atlantis hasn't scrubbed since November 2007, doesn't look Atlantis will maintain that track record.
Orbiter
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#80
by
psloss
on 06 Jul, 2011 16:14
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If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.
Mike Moses said something along these lines, but added the important caveat that he's keeping his options open. They don't have to make a decision on tanking -- or other go/no-go decisions with a big weather component -- until later.
Atlantis hasn't scrubbed since November 2007, doesn't look Atlantis will maintain that track record.
Weather or other short-term delays of a day or two are dwarfed by bigger issues that sometimes happen before a Shuttle-stack gets to launch count. Such as with Atlantis prior to STS-125.
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#81
by
Keyman
on 06 Jul, 2011 16:25
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
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#82
by
Harold KSC
on 06 Jul, 2011 16:32
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
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#83
by
bookemdano
on 06 Jul, 2011 17:29
-
So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
I think he was making a joke
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#84
by
Retired Downrange
on 06 Jul, 2011 18:01
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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#85
by
Keyman
on 06 Jul, 2011 20:05
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So...NASA can 'publicly' announce a delay (while secretly keeping the NSF in the know they plan to continue). A gazillion people don't show up (but WE all do). Then if they do indeed have a weather issue on Friday, the low traffic will allow a 24 hour turn around, instead of 48, and they can go again on Saturday.
Of course, fooling the plebes again on Saturday to get a 24 hour turn to Sunday would be tricky.
I think you've got confused somewhere. The delay was a rumor posted by someone on the other page. Chris and one of the SSP guys posted it was false and it was false.
If there's a technical issue, this site will be first as this site knows a lot of the Firing Room and MMT guys, easily more than other media, all my team only read this site for example. By the time it gets to PAO or the PAO in the Firing Room they have to be careful to get more details before they can say on NASA TV there's a problem, it can be minutes to a lot of minutes difference. L2's coverage is near to live as if you were in the MMT etc, but Chris is fast to post the big problems into the public forum.
Go on some previous scrub threads and see the difference between when this site notes an issue and when it is said on NASA TV.
I think he was making a joke
Yep. Sorry, I forgot to turn on the sarcasm font.
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#86
by
stuart_wildcat
on 06 Jul, 2011 22:00
-
If they decide not to tank because it LOOKS bad they have a 100% chance of not launching that day.
Mike Moses said something along these lines, but added the important caveat that he's keeping his options open. They don't have to make a decision on tanking -- or other go/no-go decisions with a big weather component -- until later.
I don't think I said my line above in the best way possible. What I was implying is that if they try to make an early call based only on weather and don't tank there is 0% chance of launch (with no fuel) as opposed to what we are seeing with the weather right now which is 30-40% chance of launch.
I took what Mike said to mean it's not like they wouldn't call it off early due to weather if we had a huge blanket of powerful thunderstorms in the area but they are unlikely to call anything early due to weather alone if it is just marginal.
So I think everyone worrying about the weather should do as we've always done, don't assume the launch isn't happening but do find out what you will need to do (rebook LTT to causeway, etc) in case it does get scrubbed late. Weather scrubs will likely be late scrubs and the later the scrub the more confusion ensues when it happens so have your game plan in place before then.
Hopefully we will all be saying Friday afternoon, "and then the clouds parted and Atlantis roared through one final time!" (and we were all able to see more than 20-30 seconds)
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#87
by
wingsofdana
on 06 Jul, 2011 23:31
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
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#88
by
Furner
on 06 Jul, 2011 23:38
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
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#89
by
mixologist07
on 06 Jul, 2011 23:48
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
I think we're too far out to be getting excited over a computer-generated model that disagrees with highly trained human prediction, but not bad news, certainly.
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#90
by
shuttlefanatic
on 07 Jul, 2011 00:15
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So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/423407main_weather-rules-feb2010.pdfReally Short Version: No clouds below 8000 unless the layer is less than 500 ft thick (launch constraint) and the bases are above 5000 (RTLS constraint). No clouds meeting certain (electrical storm) criteria within 10 miles of flight path. No flight through rain. No lightning within 10 miles within 30 minutes of launch time.
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#91
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 00:41
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The good news about "spaghetti" models? They have a neat name. And used correctly they help a human make a forecast...
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#92
by
wingsofdana
on 07 Jul, 2011 00:57
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Yes, my husband is a forecaster at AFTAC(here in southern FL) and they rely heavily on spaghetti models. I'm trying to find a shred of hope, somewhere.
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#93
by
Furner
on 07 Jul, 2011 01:34
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There is still plenty of hope. Just be well-prepared. Luck favors the prepared.
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#94
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 01:44
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That isn't a shred of hope, it's just a computer program. One of dozens. Spaghetti models are never to be used on their own.
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#95
by
STS-134
on 07 Jul, 2011 02:08
-
So I found a local spaghetti model and pulled up the futurecast for the launch site and time......guess what!!!!!!!! Cloud cover in the area, but no rain at launch time. There is rain at 0300, and then it is gone til 1800.
Still need to worry about cloud cover for a possible RTLS. I cant speak for the rules on clouds, but it is a concern.
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/pdf/423407main_weather-rules-feb2010.pdf
Really Short Version: No clouds below 8000 unless the layer is less than 500 ft thick (launch constraint) and the bases are above 5000 (RTLS constraint). No clouds meeting certain (electrical storm) criteria within 10 miles of flight path. No flight through rain. No lightning within 10 miles within 30 minutes of launch time.
Why are launches allowed with RH of 0-10% down to 48F, but if the RH is 90-100%, down to 44F? And why does the minimum acceptable temperature
decrease as wind increases?
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#96
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 02:16
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Offhand only-slightly-educated guess and I'll take the second one first since I have better confidence.
On a very calm day, if you have very cold temps on a surface (think ice-forming areas) it can cool the air nearby below it's ambient temperature, and enhance the icing process. If you have wind constantly blowing the cooler air away from the surface and replacing with warmer air, it won't ice as fast. Think of sitting in a pool by yourself - your body heat warms the immediate area. If you're in a river, that warm air near you is blown away. So reverse this setup to bring it back to shuttle.
My guess on the RH is brittleness? Things that need to be flexible (rubber) grow harder in cold dry air than cold moist air. So if the RH is high, it can be a little more chilled in the air.
I know I have documents somewhere with more of an explainer, if no experts chime in I'll dig around.
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#97
by
STS-134
on 07 Jul, 2011 02:46
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Offhand only-slightly-educated guess and I'll take the second one first since I have better confidence.
On a very calm day, if you have very cold temps on a surface (think ice-forming areas) it can cool the air nearby below it's ambient temperature, and enhance the icing process. If you have wind constantly blowing the cooler air away from the surface and replacing with warmer air, it won't ice as fast. Think of sitting in a pool by yourself - your body heat warms the immediate area. If you're in a river, that warm air near you is blown away. So reverse this setup to bring it back to shuttle.
My guess on the RH is brittleness? Things that need to be flexible (rubber) grow harder in cold dry air than cold moist air. So if the RH is high, it can be a little more chilled in the air.
I know I have documents somewhere with more of an explainer, if no experts chime in I'll dig around.
Yeah but on the other hand, a higher RH value makes ice that much
more likely to form in large amounts, doesn't it? I mean, if the RH is 0% or very close to it, it doesn't matter how cold it is -- you just won't get any ice forming at all. And wind is something that I see as transporting a larger volume of air past the points where ice form more quickly (which means more water has the opportunity to condense out and freeze). If I have two cooling coils that are below freezing, one just sitting in still air and another with a fan blowing on it, the one with the fan blowing on it is going to have a lot more ice form on it after a given amount of time.
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#98
by
TFGQ
on 07 Jul, 2011 10:58
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where are we with the weather situation as far as tanking and launch
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#99
by
MrSweets
on 07 Jul, 2011 11:11
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NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
630 AM CDT THURSDAY JULY 07 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P13
SHRA/TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW035 FEW100 7 33009P13
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 31007P10
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 FEW120 7 19010P14
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 BKN080 BKN250 7 21008P13
SHRA/TSRA WI 30NM
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW FEW080 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
NOR ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 08/0320
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#100
by
vanoord
on 07 Jul, 2011 12:06
-
@NASA on Twitter:
The updated STS-135 weather forecast remains the same as yesterday with a 30 percent prediction for favorable launch weather.
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#101
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 12:32
-
where are we with the weather situation as far as tanking and launch
Exactly the same as where I said we would be in post #1. No sense in reposting that over and over, as mentioned then I'll let you know if it changes.
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#102
by
rdale
on 07 Jul, 2011 20:37
-
Since people worry that I'm too quiet with a critical launch less than 24 hours away, I thought I'd drop by and make those people happy
Looks pretty bad tomorrow. I'm tempted to reduce my 20% of launch to 10%. I don't see anything that would make tomorrow's weather different from today's, and there never was a slot today when we could have launched. No significant change into the weekend.
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#103
by
beef5stew
on 07 Jul, 2011 21:02
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Sounds like it's time to make cancellable hotel reservations for the next attempt after this weekend. That's next weekend right?
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#104
by
MadameConcorde
on 07 Jul, 2011 21:05
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Looks pretty bad tomorrow. I'm tempted to reduce my 20% of launch to 10%. I don't see anything that would make tomorrow's weather different from today's, and there never was a slot today when we could have launched. No significant change into the weekend.
I will certainly not contradict you regarding what you have just said about today's weather and any chances they might launch tomorrow.
My idea is NIL.
I have been thinking that the whole afternoon.
I don't see how anyone would even want to risk spending all that time driving to KSC and back for what will probably be a zero chance of launch.
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#105
by
cycleroadie
on 07 Jul, 2011 21:09
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Since people worry that I'm too quiet with a critical launch less than 24 hours away, I thought I'd drop by and make those people happy
About time !! LOL !!
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#106
by
spacecane
on 07 Jul, 2011 21:27
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I don't see how anyone would even want to risk spending all that time driving to KSC and back for what will probably be a zero chance of launch.
I don't particularly want to but on the miniscule chance that the weather clears just enough at just the right time it would really be horrible not to be there if they do launch. I'm just bringing a book knowing full well that there's about a 95% chance that I'll spend a lovely drizzly rainy few hours sitting out on the causeway only to have a scrub called during the T-9 minute hold polling.
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#107
by
beef5stew
on 07 Jul, 2011 21:47
-
My wife is a reporter for the CBS Affiliate in Baltimore. They did a full special report on the Launch today and had an entire team of meterologist agreeing that there is almost no chance of a launch this weekend. kinda disappointing, but it is further confirmation of things not looking too good.
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#108
by
spacedog71
on 07 Jul, 2011 21:56
-
so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday, we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
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#109
by
rtphokie
on 07 Jul, 2011 22:12
-
so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday, we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
I guess the 45th weather squadron will update us tomorrow.
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#110
by
psloss
on 07 Jul, 2011 22:22
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so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday, we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
I guess the 45th weather squadron will update us tomorrow.
Yes, and also SMG. The trick to this is show up for all tankings and don't get ahead of the forecasts or the forecasters. Also resist the urge to get ahead of MMT decisions.
The ascent flight control team will get an initial briefing when they come on-shift overnight. The crew will also get the standard weather briefing prior to heading out to the pad.
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#111
by
rindsay
on 07 Jul, 2011 22:28
-
Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
Thank you! This thread is so incredibly helpful.
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#112
by
Furner
on 07 Jul, 2011 22:29
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Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
Thank you! This thread is so incredibly helpful.
Follow @NASASpaceFlight on twitter with text updates.
Also, there is a meeting at 1:30am to decide how to proceed.
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#113
by
shuttlefanatic
on 07 Jul, 2011 22:50
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Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
Note at the end of the longline forecast they indicate an update at 0320Z (1120PM EDT)
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
630 AM CDT THURSDAY JULY 07 2011
...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 08/0320
... And for what it's worth, the aviation weather forecast from a few hours ago. Calling for a 5000' foot ceiling (same as STS-134) with added layers above and some scattered cumulonimbus at 2500', plus some thundershowers in the vicinity. What a mess...
KTTS 0718/0818 18006KT 9999 VCTS FEW012 FEW030CB SCT050 BKN190 OVC250 QNH2993INS WND 110V230
TEMPO 0718/0724 VRB10G15KT 1600 +TSRA BKN012 OVC025CB
BECMG 0723/0724 19004KT 9999 VCSH SCT012 SCT025 BKN050 BKN190 OVC250 QNH2989INS
TEMPO 0801/0804 VRB06KT 2400 SHRA VCTS BKN012 OVC025CB
BECMG 0814/0815 20010G18KT 9999 VCTS FEW012 SCT025CB BKN050 BKN150 OVC250 QNH2986INS T29/0818Z T24/0810Z LAST NO AMDS AFT 0802 NEXT 0812
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#114
by
Orbiter
on 08 Jul, 2011 00:26
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So much for no development expected..
000
ABNT20 KNHC 072351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Orbiter
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#115
by
mgoblue94
on 08 Jul, 2011 00:28
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How ironic. Waiting in Denver Airport for a flight to Orlando. Tstorm has diverted my plane to Albuquerque. Hopefully I can get to Orlando by 4am. DAMN weather!
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#116
by
rindsay
on 08 Jul, 2011 00:31
-
Does anyone know about what time we should get a weather update? I'm on Pacific Time -- trying to figure out how early I should wake up to check for a go/no-go...
Note at the end of the longline forecast they indicate an update at 0320Z (1120PM EDT)
I had no idea that's what that was -- but now I do! Thanks very much and sorry for the newbie question. :X
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#117
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 01:22
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so instead of going from a three in ten chance tomorrow to a six in ten chance sunday
My forecast was never that optimistic.
we've gone to virtually no chance at all, all weekend long?
Virtually no change is not the same as no change.
And the possible tropical system is not a concern either way - the impacts to KSC would be the same whether it develops or not. Rain and clouds.
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#118
by
Austin
on 08 Jul, 2011 01:28
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I'm just bringing a book knowing full well that there's about a 95% chance that I'll spend a lovely drizzly rainy few hours sitting out on the causeway only to have a scrub called during the T-9 minute hold polling.
You might get word of a scrub sooner than that.
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#119
by
Roci Stone
on 08 Jul, 2011 02:22
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Any words yet on Tanking weather?
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#120
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 02:25
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Not sure what you are asking... The meeting is hours away still. Tanking weather is still expected to be fine.
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#121
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 03:07
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Stayed up to watch the latest data come in - and no change. It may not be wet, but it will likely remain quite cloudy. I'll check back in the morning.
Saturday may be starting to look a little better at the expense of a bad Sunday.
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#122
by
RafaelCE
on 08 Jul, 2011 03:11
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It wouldn't be that bad to enjoy a saturday launch during Silverstone qualifyng
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#123
by
RafaelCE
on 08 Jul, 2011 03:48
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Weren't we going to get an update by 11:20 EDT?
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#124
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 04:31
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Weren't we going to get an update by 11:20 EDT?
They issued it at 10:29pm. No change.
Click the link in the very first message, that's why I post them there. The link never changes as the data is updated.
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#125
by
lcs
on 08 Jul, 2011 04:37
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Radar still show precip coming up from the south. Can tanking commence with any precip falling? The NASA docs seem unclear on that to me.
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#126
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 04:39
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Weren't we going to get an update by 11:20 EDT?
They issued it at 10:29pm. No change.
Heh -- was just going to post. That forecast appears to be for the MMT tanking meeting...another one supposedly coming up soon -- but may not be much change.
At this point, we're waiting to see what the MMT decides on tanking.
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#127
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 04:42
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Rain is not a tanking issue.
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#128
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 05:35
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Looks like the weather briefing is underway...as Rob noted, current weather not a constraint; however, this might be more of a big picture decision.
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#129
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 05:37
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FWIW, Sunday fcst officially at 50/50.
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#130
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 05:39
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No change to the Ops fcst for the launch window today.
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#131
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 10:16
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Weather overview...TALs really do look good on satellite...KSC not quite so good, but we'll see.
About 40 minutes to the crew weather brief.
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#132
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 10:56
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Looking at RTLS weather/approaches.
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#133
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 11:00
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Doing the crew weather briefing...
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#134
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 11:51
-
Looks like kind of a hole over the area right now...
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#135
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 12:07
-
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#136
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 12:15
-
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#137
by
Hog
on 08 Jul, 2011 12:31
-
What do the green areas actually represent? Moisture, clouds, electrical activity?
thanks
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#138
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 12:33
-
What do the green areas actually represent? Moisture, clouds, electrical activity?
For most of the displays, moisture/precip.
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#139
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 12:43
-
Some light showers moving into the area
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#140
by
Mike_1179
on 08 Jul, 2011 12:48
-
What do the green areas actually represent? Moisture, clouds, electrical activity?
thanks
The post you are referring to (with green) is a water vapor plot. Brown is low water vapor and green is high.
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#141
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 13:19
-
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#142
by
Bubbinski
on 08 Jul, 2011 13:33
-
Are the odds still 70% no go? Or have they improved?
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#143
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 13:36
-
I might improve them in an hour but want to see what the morning sun starts doing with clouds... Certainly not out of the woods with all the moisture in place.
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#144
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 13:54
-
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#145
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 13:55
-
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#146
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 14:05
-
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#147
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 14:36
-
Still plenty of rain showers in the RTLS zone. They are light enough that it's possible the STA could clear the area anyways, but right now it's a red on paper. Unfortunately the scanner feed that normally carries weather recon is streaming NASA TV, so we won't hear them. I just dropped the provider a note to see if he can lock out NASA TV.
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#148
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 14:47
-
Plenty of lighting near Tampa but that should stay far enough west to not be an impact of anvil clouds. Not much cloudiness to worry about otherwise, it's just a wait-n-see on the showers.
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#149
by
PahTo
on 08 Jul, 2011 14:48
-
PAO Diller just said "cautiously optimistic" IF there's no convective build up with expected passing zones of moisture. STA has the waiver book out for sure!
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#150
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 14:54
-
Looking at that little area over Merritt Island...Weather recon checking that out. The large area to the NW doesn't appear to be a problem.
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#151
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 15:05
-
That area does appear to have dissipated...the weather seems about as good as it could be given the overall conditions.
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#152
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 15:06
-
There are some weak echoes aloft that the KSC radar is too close to see. But if they aren't reaching the ground that's good.
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#153
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 15:13
-
More sprinkles quickly forming in the area.
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#154
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 15:16
-
Could be some showers but anything bad enough to prevent RTLS should not be a concern.
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#155
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 15:43
-
Weather was no-go at launch time due to RTLS showers, but we launched anyways so everyone wins
SPECI KTTS 081529Z 20014G20KT 10SM FEW015 FEW032 BKN120 BKN150 BKN200 29/24 A2997 RMK SLP149 1CU 1CU /0/ 5AC 1AC 7CS /7/ N2014/20 C2012/17 S1708/14
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#156
by
stuart_wildcat
on 08 Jul, 2011 19:45
-
Weather was no-go at launch time due to RTLS showers, but we launched anyways so everyone wins
SPECI KTTS 081529Z 20014G20KT 10SM FEW015 FEW032 BKN120 BKN150 BKN200 29/24 A2997 RMK SLP149 1CU 1CU /0/ 5AC 1AC 7CS /7/ N2014/20 C2012/17 S1708/14
Sure...use that trick to pad your stats! Definitely a testiment to everyone on this thread saying "hang on" to the people saying "why even bother?"
Going out to the Astronaut Hall of Fame I still wasn't very positive but things got brighter as the morning wore on. I had been thinking "rdale is going to have to eat crow for this one" but I see he finds a way to avoid that. Just kidding, great work for everyone giving us the info on the weather and keeping the ray of hope the last few days.
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#157
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 19:53
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Thank goodness for those RTLS sprinkles
My guess is that the tropical wave to the west drew the moisture in more on that side of the state so allowed the east side to clear out.
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#158
by
robertross
on 08 Jul, 2011 20:15
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Thanks for the weather updates Rob.
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#159
by
srm
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:30
-
Ddale, we were the stupid-idiots who listened to you last night and decided not to waste our time by making the 4-hour drive to Orlando for our Gator connection. From what we witness on TV this morning, which showed a huge crowd at Kennedy Space Center, maybe the only idiots who hung onto your words since they were spoken by a man-in-the-know, an expert. Yes, it was our decision not to go…..but weren’t you aware that people (as stupid as us) were following you and believed in your professional opinion. Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
I cannot believe we bought causeway tickets and missed the last launch EVER…..lesson learned. If there is even a .0000005% chance of a favorable outcome, we’re taking it.
Now back to moping…
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#160
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:34
-
Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
I NEVER said 100% chance of weather violating launch criteria. Regardless, the weather at launch time violated launch criteria. Was it as bad as everyone expected? Nope. People who are part of the actual launch team on the L2 side here were certain last night it wouldn't be going.
If I were 4 hours away would I have been making the trip? Absolutely. I wouldn't consider you an idiot, but you did make a bad decision.
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#161
by
Longhorn John
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:35
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Where did he say zero percent? And since when did anyone take 100 percent notice of a weather guy.
My wife is a reporter for the CBS Affiliate in Baltimore. They did a full special report on the Launch today and had an entire team of meterologist agreeing that there is almost no chance of a launch this weekend. kinda disappointing, but it is further confirmation of things not looking too good.
Oh yeah, that's right.
Also, why didn't you follow this site. As soon as they went for tanking, 12 hours before launch, you'd think that was an indication there was more than zero percent chance?
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#162
by
subisnack
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:42
-
Ddale, we were the stupid-idiots who listened to you last night and decided not to waste our time by making the 4-hour drive to Orlando for our Gator connection. From what we witness on TV this morning, which showed a huge crowd at Kennedy Space Center, maybe the only idiots who hung onto your words since they were spoken by a man-in-the-know, an expert. Yes, it was our decision not to go…..but weren’t you aware that people (as stupid as us) were following you and believed in your professional opinion. Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
I cannot believe we bought causeway tickets and missed the last launch EVER…..lesson learned. If there is even a .0000005% chance of a favorable outcome, we’re taking it.
Now back to moping…
I don't think the anger is pointed in the right direction. That really stinks you missed the launch, but I don't recall ever hearing a 0%. IF it was (and doing a quick scan I can't find where that was ever mentioned), it was a number of days ago, which is always pointed out...weather forecasting is a science that is never 100%. The forecast given was no worse than that of NASA and SMG. And notice that it was technically "no go" with a waiver written. Also in this very thread a number of instances of near 100% no go instances were pointed out as finding a hole in the weather and making it. Taking your frustration (and I can only imagine the frustration!) on a member of the site is taking it in the wrong direction.
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#163
by
Chris Bergin
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:44
-
It was a 70 percent chance of no go. It was all over my articles for sure, as I remember writing it.
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#164
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:46
-
Well I was at 80% at one point so I'll take credit/blame for that, but nobody in their right mind ever said 0% chance of launch.
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#165
by
Chris Bergin
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:47
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Well I was at 80% at one point so I'll take credit/blame for that, but nobody in their right mind ever said 0% chance of launch.
Oh no, 80 percent? Wow, if I knew that I wouldn't of bothered coming on site for coverage today
Look, it sucks srm, I feel for you, but don't go running on here and blaming Rob on a weather thread, where it's just an interesting expansion on all the forecasts with rolling updates. The master forecast comes from Kathy Winters (who, ironically, was more than negative through the week). They pulled off a minor miracle today, but don't go lashing out.
They ALWAYS say, you go to KSC with the potential bonus you'll get to see a launch.
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#166
by
rdale
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:50
-
That must have been why SFN went down for a bit
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#167
by
psloss
on 08 Jul, 2011 22:58
-
As soon as they went for tanking, 12 hours before launch, you'd think that was an indication there was more than zero percent chance?
Bingo. If they tank, you go.
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#168
by
Melroy Fan
on 08 Jul, 2011 23:15
-
Ddale, we were the stupid-idiots who listened to you last night and decided not to waste our time by making the 4-hour drive to Orlando for our Gator connection. From what we witness on TV this morning, which showed a huge crowd at Kennedy Space Center, maybe the only idiots who hung onto your words since they were spoken by a man-in-the-know, an expert. Yes, it was our decision not to go…..but weren’t you aware that people (as stupid as us) were following you and believed in your professional opinion. Remember, you said at one time….zero probability!
I cannot believe we bought causeway tickets and missed the last launch EVER…..lesson learned. If there is even a .0000005% chance of a favorable outcome, we’re taking it.
Now back to moping…
Agreed that your anger/disappointment/frustration is pointed in the wrong direction. Rob provides us wonderful information to supplement what we hear from Kathy Winters and her team. He's a tremendous asset to our forum.
Sorry you missed the launch. But please, enjoy the remainder of this mission, the incredible NASA team and the magnificent national treasure, Atlantis.
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#169
by
srm
on 08 Jul, 2011 23:52
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OK...I wasn't going to respond but.......you did say zero (not 0%) launch probability yesterday. I have been religiously following all the spaceflight.com since sts134, so I am not a newbie here. I have really enjoyed Chris's and all the articles.
My anger is directly aimed at ME for being so damn stupid that I didn't disregard the ...it's not going tomorrow folks....forecast. I didn't know that “no go” really meant “go” from an expert until today's post!
As far as ….why didn’t you drive-up at tanking time….our scheduled pickup in Orlando was 2am, so it was too late to catch the Gator bus.
I wish that rDale’s positivity for a favorable launch could have transpired last night, even a glimpse of hope.
Ultimately, the bad decision was ours…no matter what information we based it on. No one can be as angry with us as we are. We blame only ourselves for being persuaded.
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#170
by
rdale
on 09 Jul, 2011 00:03
-
you did say zero (not 0%) launch probability yesterday.
No, I didn't. I'll be more than happy to take the blame when appropriate, but I'm not falling here. You are completely and absolutely verifiably wrong.
I don't see how anyone would even want to risk spending all that time driving to KSC and back for what will probably be a zero chance of launch.
MadameConcorde, who has no experience or knowledge in weather, said it. I had 80% chance of launch weather violation, for a measly 10% chance difference than USAF/SMG forecasters who DEVOTE THEIR PROFESSIONAL LIVES to nothing but forecasting for the KSC area. Not bad if I say so myself...
I didn't know that “no go” really meant “go” from an expert until today's post!
Again - the launch weather violated launch criteria. So the forecast verified. As was mentioned COUNTLESS times in this and every other weather thread, it only takes a 30 minute well timed gap in the weather to allow a launch. It's happened before when USAF/KSC was very pessimistic about a launch but I was optimistic that the gap would come, and it did.
In this case, there was a gap. It was bigger than expected, but there is no way on God's green earth that you can show me the setup again and I would say "It'll be dry and mostly sunny through the morning."
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#171
by
bookemdano
on 09 Jul, 2011 00:25
-
srm I understand why you must be frustrated. It's not like you'll get another chance to make up for your bad decision. I took a similar gamble for STS-133 during the November 4th attempt (which ended up being scrubbed prior to tanking). But part of my rationale for that decision was that in the off chance it did end up going up, I still had opportunities to see STS-134 and 135.
I followed this thread religiously, and I never saw rdale say zero percent chance of launch. Even still, I don't think I would have based my plans on what any one person said, given that this was the final launch and are no more opportunities once it does go up.
I was as pessimistic as anyone that this launch wasn't going to happen today. But probability is just that--probability. Not certainty. Even an 80% no go forecast means that two times out of ten it will go.
I feel very bad for you and your family--if I were in your shoes I would be heartbroken. But lashing out at rdale is not an appropriate response and frankly I think you owe him an apology.
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#172
by
LendMeYourYears
on 09 Jul, 2011 01:03
-
@srm - you know it was your call, and if you've been round here long enough - you know how things work. The following line, heard
so many times during bad weather, by every student skydiver trying to plan travel between university and the drop zone; echoes the right approach to these things.
"We don't know if you'll be able to jump if you stay... but you definitely won't be jumping if you're not."
But yeah, I guess you need somewhere/thing/one to vent at to kind of justify what you did to yourself. But
retract that vent arm soon, before you get scrubbed
.
I didn't get to go to the launch either - visa issues - even though I'd been counting on it for months, and even had a causeway ticket. But I managed to sell my ticket to a high-schooler, and I've made my peace with the fact that this might've atleast added to the ranks of space-fanatics, rather than make an existing space-fanatic happier.
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#173
by
stuart_wildcat
on 09 Jul, 2011 06:22
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Or 99% against, depending on your source
OK, so I found where Rob made his "no chance" prediction. Of course that was in jest and technically even then there was a 1% chance. It was also from two days ago. It probably is not even a prediction but was more in response to someone who said "what if there is 100% chance against?" implying that a weatherman would never say 0% or 100%.
I wasn't going to jump into the discussion since several people have already rightly come to Rob's defense but my wife had been studying meteorology so I know what it takes to do what Rob does and also the (undeserved) reputation it has sometimes as a "fake" science.
Rob was actually pretty consistent with his predictions of 70-80% chance of weather that would prevent launch. I think Thursday there were a lot of posts that were very pessimistic (me included) because the weather that day was so bad. Rob actually stuck to his guns though and even though he said he was tempted to lower his chance of good weather to 10% I don't think he did. Even if he had though there would have been 1/10 chance of launching according to him and obviously that is where we ended up.
The posts that said there was "no chance" were largely:
- Posts by people without weather experience
- Posts wondering if they would even tank if there were "no chance"
Even with that pessimisim though there were lots of other posts that:
- Pointed out there have been launches with even worse forcasts going in
- Pointed out that they might as well tank and take a chance because you never know what will happen
- Pointed out that a weather scrub would likely be a late scrub so you should still come out for launch but figure out what will happen if that occurs.
Feel a little like I am beating a dead horse here but I think there is a big difference in some light-hearted ribbing at Rob's expense and flat out "blame" for using this info to make a bad decision. After all, weather info is only one factor in the whole process and certainly not something to use as the only factor in the decision to come to the launch.
We still love ya rdale!
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#174
by
Albireo
on 09 Jul, 2011 10:18
-
I can only agree with stuart_wildcat... And from my side I would like to say that I couldn't believe my eyes when I was back at the hotel and reading that the conditions would have been no-go for RTLS at launch... but you can't imagine how really thankful I am for that decision and the fact that our good girl Atlantis didn't need the RTLS option!
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#175
by
rdale
on 09 Jul, 2011 12:35
-
Thanks for the kind words everyone... Granted this won't go down in my "Hall of Fame" forecast book, but when a forecast doesn't pan out there are two bins to put them in:
1) Everyone else got it right so I must have missed something obvious and need to go back and check my data again ...or...
2) Everyone else missed it too, so we'll chalk that up to not knowing and observing absolutely everything there is to know and observe about the atmosphere.
This was a #2 case. There isn't one source of forecasting information that even the night before indicated "It'll be a beautiful launch setup with just a few sprinkles in the area, but STA will get a waiver to clear them. No worries."
I also need to remind my new friend of the VERY first post in this thread made 4 days prior:
On the good side, it's not a tropical system, it's not a front, so the storms won't be continuous or run all day. There's always a chance to get a nice break for a few hours.
I've enjoyed my "NSF Forecasting Career" even after the demotion to Assistant post-Ike
Florida weather is far from my area of expertise but it's been an exciting challenge, and I will miss it. Even when the next generation of human spaceflight starts up, the requirements will be much more relaxed so I'm not sure how valuable the NSF Meteorology Department will be.
And to make the end come even sooner - I'll be up north sitting on a lake with limited Internet access in the landing timeframe (barring a +4 extension) so psloss will take the reigns as chief for that one...
Thanks again. It's been a pleasure!
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#176
by
lsullivan411
on 09 Jul, 2011 12:44
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If I can remind you of your post of July 4th --
Right now I'd say 20% chance of acceptable launch weather on Friday, ramping up to about 40% by Sunday.
So your forecast was not wrong -- you hit it just right knowing there was at least a small chance of the weather cooperating!
As I got soaked waiting for the security dogs heading out for RSS retract, and as I sat at my hotel listening to the heavy rain outside, I'd never have thought we would get to the launch, but it's Florida and that's what happens here.
From my standpoint your weather calls have been more accurate than most of the local forecasters here. Thanks much for all you've done for the weather world here on NSF -- very much appreciated, and we look foreward to whatever forecasts you may have for us in the future.
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#177
by
psloss
on 09 Jul, 2011 13:20
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And to make the end come even sooner - I'll be up north sitting on a lake with limited Internet access in the landing timeframe (barring a +4 extension) so psloss will take the reigns as chief for that one...
I'm not likely to be able to for EOM. And given the grief and over-reaction, maybe it's better not to post, anyway.
Thanks for the insight over the many countdowns and landing days, Rob.
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#178
by
mirak
on 09 Jul, 2011 14:22
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I put the computer away early Friday morning and actually went outside to judge for myself. Sky was mostly clear, and I knew right away that something wasn't jibing with the forecasts. Forecasts are just educated guesses. Use your eyes and trust your gut.
Bottom line is, if someone missed the last launch because they were worried about the potential or even likely inconvenience of a scrub, then that shows their priorities, and they have no right to complain no matter what a weather forecast said.
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