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STS-135 Launch Weather Thread
by
rdale
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:29
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#1
by
Orbiter
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:35
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Basing this off experience - but FL thunderstorms normally don't get a cranking until 4-5 pm. I think 11 am by that time the sea-breeze will be pushing any thunderstorms inland.
Orbiter
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#2
by
rdale
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:41
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That would normally be the case, but there is so much moisture around that it'll likely be fairly cloudy much of the day with generic showers in the morning too.
On the plus side - not as much worry about extreme heat and sunburn issues!
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#3
by
robertross
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:50
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That would normally be the case, but there is so much moisture around that it'll likely be fairly cloudy much of the day with generic showers in the morning too.
On the plus side - not as much worry about extreme heat and sunburn issues!
And brush fires...
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#4
by
rdale
on 04 Jul, 2011 14:52
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True - here's the latest drought monitor for Florida.
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#5
by
psloss
on 04 Jul, 2011 15:21
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Good news and bad news...
Will be interesting to see what they get at the end of the week, but I'll take weather uncertainty over hardware uncertainty.
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#6
by
stuart_wildcat
on 04 Jul, 2011 23:13
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Basing this off experience - but FL thunderstorms normally don't get a cranking until 4-5 pm. I think 11 am by that time the sea-breeze will be pushing any thunderstorms inland.
Orbiter
We went on one of the guided tours Saturday (been trying to see each shuttle on the pad before launch) and the tour guide said that a few days before they couldn't even get off the bus for the 1.75 hour tour because of lightning. This was during the middle of the day 10-11 AM and stayed that way most of the day.
Even though the joke is "it rains every day in Florida" there are slight cycles in the chances. Unfortunately it looks like we will be in the wrong end of a cycle for the first attempt.
The sea-breeze might only affect the direction they are moving at any one time and not prevent them from forming altogether. The launch commit criteria might not give us as much flexibility as we would like.
If someone was taking bets I would bet that weather will delay us at least once. Hate to say that but better that everyone expects this and has plans in place for weather delays.
Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
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#7
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 00:42
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Right now I'd say 20% chance of acceptable launch weather on Friday, ramping up to about 40% by Sunday.
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#8
by
dahacker
on 05 Jul, 2011 02:11
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Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
I've heard through an inside rumor that it likely will be no faster than a three day delay if there is any kind of last minute scrub for any reason. The theory being that traffic around the launch attempt will be so bad that it will take extreme amounts of time for workers to return home and come back for their next shift. I've got reservations through Tuesday.
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#9
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 03:06
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That seems too extreme, as that would eliminate the entire 8-10 option. I can't imagine it would take 12+ hours for a trip home?
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#10
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 05 Jul, 2011 03:17
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Remember that a weather delay (unless it prevents tanking) will likely be one of those last minute scrubs that forces a 48-hour delay.
I've heard through an inside rumor that it likely will be no faster than a three day delay if there is any kind of last minute scrub for any reason. The theory being that traffic around the launch attempt will be so bad that it will take extreme amounts of time for workers to return home and come back for their next shift. I've got reservations through Tuesday.
Lets keep this particular humor mill closed, shall we. The as-of-3pm-Monday-afternoon option was: scrub before L-4hrs and the possibility for a 24hr scrub turnaround (depending on why we scrubbed) would be entertained. Scrub within 30mins either way of L-4hrs and the launch team would seriously look at turnaround options based on why we scrubbed. Scrub after L-4hrs (and certainly at T-9mins and holding) and it would most certainly be a NET 48-hr turnaround based with deference as to why we scrubbed.
Those are the facts, so we will as a site keep it at that.
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#11
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 11:51
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Launch weather forecast is out on L2, but they're also doing the morning weather briefing...today's look at Friday forecast for launch time:
Should get the info set a little later and a media briefing at 10 am Eastern.
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#12
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:07
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SMG forecast from today for launch time on Friday:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0RTLS forecast is for thunderstorms within 20 nautical miles of the SLF. TALs have a good forecast.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT TUESDAY JULY 05 2011
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-135
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1526Z
DATE: 07/08/11
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT120 BKN250 7 21006P10
TSRA WI 20NM
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA FEW040 7 34006P09
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 29005P08
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI FEW035 7 19008P12
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
NOR SCT200 7 15006P09
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 07/08/11 20Z TO 07/08/11 21Z
EDW SKC 7 23010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 06/1200Z
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
HOETH/WILEY/HOOD
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#13
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:18
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Launch weather forecast is out on L2, but they're also doing the morning weather briefing...today's look at Friday forecast for launch time:
Should get the info set a little later and a media briefing at 10 am Eastern.
45th Weather Squadron forecast is out publicly now:
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf
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#14
by
cd-slam
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:24
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Ugh. But Sunday looks good, 70% go, perhaps NASA might go straight into a 48 hour scrub if Friday doesn't work out?
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#15
by
psloss
on 05 Jul, 2011 12:40
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Ugh. But Sunday looks good, 70% go, perhaps NASA might go straight into a 48 hour scrub if Friday doesn't work out?
It depends on the situation on Friday; we'll have to wait to see.
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#16
by
mirak
on 05 Jul, 2011 13:43
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Just because its rainy or overcast, that doesn't necessarily preclude a launch, right?
If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
I'm not really looking forward to getting up at the crack of dawn and driving out to the Causeway to sit in the rain, all the while knowing its very unlikely the launch will occur. And I sure as heck hope we don't have to do that 3 days in a row! Personally, I think its worth it, but my family would never let me hear the end of it! this is supposed to be our vacation!
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#17
by
kimmern123
on 05 Jul, 2011 14:11
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go, so you never know
I know the forecasts of today are vastly more accurate and detailed than in the early days of the Shuttle-program, but I think it gives a good example of the unpredictable weather in Florida.
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#18
by
Nickolai
on 05 Jul, 2011 14:22
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If the launch does scrub, what is more likely, a 24 or 48 hour delay?
As noted earlier, a 48-hour delay is seen as likely since the intense amount of traffic from all the launch viewers will make it difficult for workers to get home and rest before they have to come back.
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#19
by
rdale
on 05 Jul, 2011 14:35
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Launches have occured when the forecast was 0% go and been scrubbed at 100% go
Well, forecasting has made a few strides since the 80's so odds are extremely remote of that happening these days. Plus NSF didn't have a staff meteorologist back then
