Brazilian space plans: from 2011 forward

[Satori]

The space plan of Brazil from 2011 to 2015 (in portuguese).

[Danderman]

It should be noted that this is the INPE 5 year plan, not the AEB plan.

[Satori]

Some information regarding the future Brazilian space plans.

[Salo]

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2011/10/25/brazil-to-boost-space-budget/#more-31257

[Danderman]

Hey, where's Cyclone 4?

 

[Steven Pietrobon]

The link above says

"Goals

    * Increase budget to $ 2.192 billion in the period
    * Ensure the Ukrainian Cyclone-4 rocket by 2012"

[baldusi]

The link above says

"Goals

    * Increase budget to $ 2.192 billion in the period
    * Ensure the Ukrainian Cyclone-4 rocket by 2012"

Both presidents recently made a joint statement where, among other things, stated that they were happy with the project's latest developments. The truth is that until three months ago, the Brazilian government had made something like 90% of their investment, while the Ukranian had made something like 20%. It's sort of a ridiculous situation where the country that would get the most benefit (Ukrania), tries to live off the country that's doing this mainly for strategic reasons. Brazil do have a LV program, and might go with the URM, if successful. But they want this to actually establish themselves as a player in the GTO market, and gain experience in all the other phases of a commercial launch. I doubt they could launch the sort of GTO payloads they need.

[Salo]

Proton LV will be right decision for Alcantara.

[baldusi]

Proton LV will be right decision for Alcantara.

That's not an option. I'm sure they could build pretty fast an Angara pad, too. But Brazil wants to have their own independent technology. They are having an approach of making buys, with successively higher requirements of Brazilian work share. And Russians are known to sell anything, but making basically zero technology transfers. At least on LV.
Most LV from Alcantara would have a very nice boost, but which company would want to actually share most of it's technology, to probably be left out in the future iterations, for a certain level of performance improvement? I can only think of Ukraine. They have the Zenit, but they depend heavily on Russian parts, and can, in effect, only sell them to the Russians.

[Danderman]

Proton LV will be right decision for Alcantara.

Both Proton and Cyclone use nasty propellants, I think that Brazil would be better off with an ethanol-fueled LV.

[baldusi]

Proton LV will be right decision for Alcantara.

Both Proton and Cyclone use nasty propellants, I think that Brazil would be better off with an ethanol-fueled LV.

And they are working on that (look for the L-75 engines). But let's remember that all the nations that start to launch things into space, start with those nasty hypergolics. Both for the simplicity (and reliability) of ignition and for the fact that is a technology to master for anything that stays up for a while (i.e. satellites).
The Argentinian civil program is baselined to hypergolic. Even though I heard a rumor that they are trying to make a kerolox version, they are still officially hypergolic. Specially useful (easy ignition) since the ISCUL is going to be a four stage rocket to get 100kg to a 400km orbit.
In any case, I don't think they had many possible partners willing to share lots of technology. In fact, I don't seen any other partner willing to do this sort of arrangement. I would love them to be successful, since that would mean cheap launchers for Argentinan satellites. And keeping everything in the Mercosur would make things cheaper.

[baldusi]

Since you asked about the Cyclone-4 from Alcantara the Article of the Panorama Espacial Blog says:

Sunday, November 6, 2011
The moment of Alcantara Cyclone Space - Part II

After going through a very turbulent period at the beginning of the year, with words and harsh measures that the Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation (McTier), Mercadante, and the president of the Brazilian Space Agency (AEB), Marco Antonio Raupp (see " The moment of Alcantara Cyclone Space, "July 2011), and the replacement of the director of the binational, Roberto Amaral, the joint Ukrainian-Brazilian venture Alcantara Cyclone Space (ACS) seems to have found one, at least for now, a moment of tranquility.

In early July, a delegation led by the AEB Marco Antonio Raupp was in Ukraine for the purpose, reported the second season of "audit" the course of the project by the Ukrainian side. After the trip, no official with the findings of the Brazilian government has been released. Publicly, few understood the change of position Raupp, before criticism of the binational program, and now sympathetic to the initiative. The comments came from the Blog Space Panorama of people familiar with the matter is that, officially, the prevailing position among the leaders was that the project would already be well advanced by the Ukrainian side, would not justify its abandonment.

Another factor that favored the Ukrainian Kiev was the decision to release resources for the binational (180 or 250 million dollars, depending on the source of information). In Sao Jose dos Campos (SP), a few weeks ago, the blog heard a joke that sums up this question: "Brazil has a check, and Ukrainians came with the check."

During his visit to Brazil last month, Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's president, told reporters that his country "Cyclone 4 project is on schedule." "To date, we are prepared according to the schedule last year," he added. emphasizing that delays last year were due to financial issues.

Some observers saw the recent appointment of Brigadier Reginaldo dos Santos of booking, summa cum laude at the Institute of Aeronautical Technology (ITA) and former rector of the institution for the general management of ACS as an attempt to approach the project with the Air Force Command something that the blog has doubts. The views of McTier and the Air Force Command in relation to the ACS never converged. The vision pravelecente of the main sectors of the Brazilian Space Program is the binational dispute resources with other projects (satellites, launchers) - and has achieved some success, but without tangible returns in terms of development and technological training.

Despite the good news and the relative peace-building, the ACS still have to deal with very sensitive issues. In September, one of the workshops that the Brazilian Association Aerospace (BAE) has promoted this year on the Brazilian Space Program, the spatial agreement with Ukraine was one of the topics discussed. The list below is not exhaustive, lists some critical topics for the bi-national project presented and discussed by those present:

- No provisions for technology transfer, there are issues of protection of the MTCR [Missile Technology Control Regime];
- The business plan was made about 10 years ago, the forecast was to launch satellites of the Iridium system replacement;
- Little participation of domestic industry, for now at least;
- Cyclone 4 is 60 to 70% qualified; necessary to integrate the schedule of the vehicle with the infrastructure's;
- There was mo provision for personnel to operate the base, the Ukranian part thought the Air Force Command personnel would run it, which seems to have been a misunderstanding;
- The propellant for the Cyclone 4 will be acquired in the world market. The first supply offer was obtained from China;
- ACS will generate more resources for Ukraine in terms of manufacturing of the rocket. This imbalance exists. Brazil wins its viability as a launch country, but dependent on only one country and not on several;
- There is block to U.S. satellite launches U.S. on Brazilian soil. The Foreign Ministry began efforts to obtain that permission.

Most is a Google translation. I tweaked the conclusions of the workshop. So, in general the project seems to have been put on track. But they lost some precious years and the market changed a lot. You have to put into the context of the constant ITAR problems that Brazil has faced in the past. And their close ties to China.

[baldusi]

According to this Press Release from the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry, the Cyclone-4 is supposed to launch on November 15 of 2013, which is a national holiday in Brazil. Whatever that means.

[Danderman]

According to this Press Release from the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry, the Cyclone-4 is supposed to launch on November 15 of 2013, which is a national holiday in Brazil. Whatever that means.

That's 2 years from now.

Cyclone 4 is generally quoted as being 3 years from launch, so this may be an improvement in hypothetical schedules.

[baldusi]

According to this Press Release from the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry, the Cyclone-4 is supposed to launch on November 15 of 2013, which is a national holiday in Brazil. Whatever that means.

That's 2 years from now.

Cyclone 4 is generally quoted as being 3 years from launch, so this may be an improvement in hypothetical schedules.

Brazil did invest over 250M, which in these latitudes go a loooong way. In the last six months, there has been a lot of Brazil/Ukraine meeting and visits. A lot of those were officially "factory visits", which I would take as light auditing. And they have been talking about the advances made just in the last four months. Just before this there was a sort of very serious ultimatum from Brazil.
It's the ridiculous situation where the country to reap the most income from the project (Ukraine) was also trying to freeload on the Brazilian money. Apparently, they made the numbers and decided to actually do the investment.
I'm happy because this might mean cheap launches for our national satellites. We have a lot of complement between the space agencies and this will help us.

[Danderman]

Did Brazil spend its money on Brazil infrastructure that exists today, or transfer the money to the Ukraine, to be used to develop Cyclone-4?

[baldusi]

Did Brazil spend its money on Brazil infrastructure that exists today, or transfer the money to the Ukraine, to be used to develop Cyclone-4?

I completely ignore it. But I'm assuming it was mostly range and infrastructure investment. And the Binational Entity for the Cyclone project, I assume. I know they lack a fuel factory and the first bid was won by China. I also know that Argentina has been developing the factory for this sort of fuels for its own Tronador II project, so I'm assuming Brazil shouldn't need to invest in that area.
I've also read that the Brazilian industry had serious regrets about the level of involvement in the LV side of things. But the MTCR is very strict there, and luckily all in our region have signed into it. So there's not much they can do. I'm completely ignorant of how did they pulled ahead in the last six months, so I wouldn't discard at least some financing. But Brazil has very intelligent leaders, and if they sent any money to Ukraine, they will more than make it up in the future.

[Satori]

Actual satellite and rocket development in Brazil..

[Danderman]

Sigh, Cyclone 4 is still 2 years away.

[baldusi]

Actual satellite and rocket development in Brazil..

The satellite part is pretty spot on. The LV is more an expression of desire.