LIVE: CCDev-2 Awards and Decision Discussion - April 18

[baldusi]

Eventually Dragon / Falcon 9 vs. CST-100 / Atlas 402 seems a likely outcome.

I think everybody is too quick to put the CST-100 on the Atlas. If I were Elon, and couldn't get a paying customer for FH, I would give it for free to Boeing.

[pathfinder_01]

I think everybody is too quick to put the CST-100 on the Atlas. If I were Elon, and couldn't get a paying customer for FH, I would give it for free to Boeing.

CST100 will mass about 13MT it is way too light for FH. Falcon 9 however could carry it.

[ugordan]

I think everybody is too quick to put the CST-100 on the Atlas. If I were Elon, and couldn't get a paying customer for FH, I would give it for free to Boeing.

Overkill.

CST-100 *will* be baselined for Atlas for the foreseeable future. It only makes sense from the risk standpoint. If/when F9 proves itself and if it's still significantly cheaper than Atlas then Boeing will have incentive to switch preferred boosters.

[Robotbeat]

I think everybody is too quick to put the CST-100 on the Atlas. If I were Elon, and couldn't get a paying customer for FH, I would give it for free to Boeing.

Overkill.

CST-100 *will* be baselined for Atlas for the foreseeable future. It only makes sense from the risk standpoint. If/when F9 proves itself and if it's still significantly cheaper than Atlas then Boeing will have incentive to switch preferred boosters.

Also, by the time Falcon Heavy is flying, it may be the case that the Falcon 9 with Merlin 1d is flying, which should have plenty of capacity to get CST-100 to LEO (though let's wait and see... SpaceX has been overoptimistic with performance figures in the past).

[pathfinder_01]

Once there are two LEO capsules in 2017-18 there will be lots of explaining to do to show that there is a need for a third different one for BEO.

Not really. the 737 and 767 do similar things but one is for short to meduim routes and the other for meduim to long route. People don't care about the details just the cost. If you explain that the CST100 cost a lot less and is reusable than Orion but only can support a crew for 2 days they will see that a CST100 wont work for a lunar trip.

[savuporo]

....NASA thought that spending limited funds on a spacecraft made more sense than spending money on another vehicle.

Makes you wonder when does the rest of the organization catch up with that thinking, and when does Congress get the memo.

Also, im sure that the new CSF President is SPRIALLING in joy ..

[Robotbeat]

How much would all the abort testing cost for Orion? I would imagine it could run into the billions of dollars.

In theory yes, but the bigger problem is that the law requires that the MPCV be capable of carring crew to the ISS.

Well, Orion may not be really ready for full abort tests for quite some time, and the law could be changed by then, if it's shown the backup isn't needed (since there may be two viable commercial crew providers before full abort tests on a launch vehicle need to be done). Still need Orion for deep space, though, so maybe the money that would've been spent on the abort tests could be spent on accelerating deep space capability. If commercial crew is successful.

[Ronsmytheiii]

I think I'm starting to fall in love with Dream Chaser

I used to also, before colorado stole it 

(the HL-20 model used to be at the nearby Virginia Air & Space Museum until Dreamchaser used it, darn it I Want it back, precious childhood memories!)

[Robotbeat]

Who would do recovery and refurbishment and operations of CST-100?

[punder]

I'm hoping that Dream Chaser makes it and gives us a reusable runway landing shuttle.  I'm not confident in the future with all of these programs being in such a preliminary stage, with shuttle retirement imminent.  CCDev should've been where it is now about 5 years ago!

Boeing has a flight-tested "reusable runway landing shuttle" right now.  I'm curious as to why the X-37B couldn't be adapted for crew.

[Ronsmytheiii]

Boeing has a flight-tested "reusable runway landing shuttle" right now.  I'm curious as to why the X-37B couldn't be adapted for crew.

It was not designed for people, and you cannot reverse engineer that capacity in.  X-37 is not for crew.

But Boeing dos have a reusable manned spacecraft right now, too bad it did not receive any CCDEV funding.

[Danny Dot]

So we are going to have three or four human spacecraft in development in parallel ? in the current fiscal context ? really ?

Good point.  The very limited money is being spread around too thin.

[rcoppola]

I think I'm starting to fall in love with Dream Chaser

Agreed! I am a huge DreamChaser fan. It's so wonderful to have a craft that can land on any runway a B737 can land on. And if Dragon can eventually do propulsive landings with it's LAS Side Mounted Pusher system, the future sure is looking very interesting indeed.

[Jim]

Who would do recovery and refurbishment and operations of CST-100?

That is for Boeing to determine

[Robotbeat]

Who would do recovery and refurbishment and operations of CST-100?

That is for Boeing to determine

Is it likely for United Space Alliance to get any of this?

[rcoppola]

I have a potentially very bad idea...but hey, it's been a long day.
Seems like Orion will be the only design which uses the throw away Pull LAS and all the inefficiencies and costs that implies. But if Orion can be designed as it was intended as a BEO spacecraft, couldn't we do away with the LAS, launch it unmanned and then send up the DreamChaser, Dragon or CST to dock with it and the EDS, load the crew, some additional supplies and off you go?

Oh boy their are so many holes in that...

[Ronsmytheiii]

So we are going to have three or four human spacecraft in development in parallel ? in the current fiscal context ? really ?

Good point.  The very limited money is being spread around too thin.

Right now the big emphasis is on advancing the designs/business cases for an eventual decision.  Think of this as COTS if SpaceX,Kistler, and OSC had all been chosen initiall, then eventually NASA would select providers in the CRS process (although probably in this case NASA would award the final companies investment dollars as well) Kind of similar to how the JSF was handled except there will not be any flying prototypes.

[robertross]

I have a potentially very bad idea...but hey, it's been a long day.
Seems like Orion will be the only design which uses the throw away Pull LAS and all the inefficiencies and costs that implies. But if Orion can be designed as it was intended as a BEO spacecraft, couldn't we do away with the LAS, launch it unmanned and then send up the DreamChaser, Dragon or CST to dock with it and the EDS, load the crew, some additional supplies and off you go?

Oh boy their are so many holes in that...

Swiss Cheese style 

[Jim]

Who would do recovery and refurbishment and operations of CST-100?

That is for Boeing to determine

Is it likely for United Space Alliance to get any of this?

Up to Boeing

[Chris Bergin]

Here's my article on it all:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/04/four-companies-win-nasas-ccdev-2-awards/