Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD  (Read 611283 times)

Offline sdsds

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #200 on: 10/06/2013 11:40 pm »
Enlightening paper about the ongoing showdown between SES  and insurers :
http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/37547ses-approves-satellite-shipment-for-falcon-9-launch-despite-questions

Sounds like a bunch a sour grapes to me.

Very good point. From the article:
"An insurance official said that if SES and its underwriters draw different conclusions from the telemetry data they receive from SpaceX, SES could offer sweeteners such as a guarantee of future insurance business, or an offer of a higher premium, or to self-insure part of the launch risk and reduce underwriters’ exposure."

So if there are concerns, then the last statement would seem to me to be the most likely outcome. SES looks willing to assume some risk, and probably SpaceX would be willing to assume some risk. After all, if everything works as Elon says it will, it will cost them nothing.

Your suggestion seems to be the elepant in the room: is SpaceX willing to underwrite some of the SES mission risk?
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Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #201 on: 10/07/2013 12:22 am »
We can technically do them without a restart, we can do them as a single burn, but it means the satellite has to do more work to change the plane of its orbit to equatorial. So we can do it either way, but the one which is the minimum work for the satellite does require restart.

According to the above statement by Musk at the Cassiope Presser, the could do the mission without a restart if the satellite has enough spare deltav to do the extra maneuvering. I think if an agreement cannot be reached between spacex, SES and their insurers this would be a viable option. It may lower the lifetime of the satellite, but if it nearly guarantees success then it may be worth it considering the satellites often of some contingency fuel.

Anything that reduces the life of a comm sat seems to be a non-starter to me.

Offline MP99

Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #202 on: 10/07/2013 07:52 am »

How about a refurbished Dragon then? Not on a mission to the ISS, send it just to make some orbits and demonstrations, and then come back. Imagine what PR stunt it would be if it is successful. They could even fill it with cheese or souvenirs and then sell the stuff when it returns. And then the reused Dragon can then be sent to a museum.
No idea if they have any suitable for reuse though.

That would have both cost & schedule implications.

If the insurer really baulks, it would probably be cheaper for SpaceX to pay part of that cost to bump up the premium, or cover an excess.

BTW, just a reminder that there are two elements to the risk here that the insurer would be worried about.

1) will the u/s engine restart OK this time?

2) F9 #006 was supposed to burn to depletion to demonstrate how much prop / delta V was remaining after ascent, and loiter / boiloff.

The insurers risk now includes that the u/s may under-perform against it's specification and leave the sat short of its intended apogee.

Counterbalancing this, SES get the full performance of the vehicle without a recovery attempt, so you'd hope it will have plenty of dV in reserve to mitigate that risk.

Cheers, Martin

Offline AnjaZoe

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #203 on: 10/07/2013 10:17 am »
The problem of the falcon is not the underperforming first stage (which may have some reserve if no recovery is attempted, but the non-functioning of the second stage restart, which is required for a GTO insertion.
Leaving the latter task to the satellite will significantly reduce its lifetime, which I find hard to believe an operator like SES would be willing to accept.
To me, the most likely scenario - like already mentioned above - is that SES accepts a higher risk, compensated by low launch costs and insurance coverage. It would not be the first operator to do so in order to create a broader market base, in this case for launch companies. The question really is, will the insurers cover the increased risk or not. I can't imagine SES going ahead for the launch without any insurance at all.
Maybe Space-X would jump in and close the gap left by the insurer. However, I do not think the public will hear a lot about such a deal, it will most certainly be done behind closed doors.

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Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #204 on: 10/07/2013 05:14 pm »
I spoke too generically.  I wouldn't use them in a rocket turbopump application and certain other rotating machinery, where axial shifts and some radial modes of the shaft could affect the precision of the measurement.
I'm not sure how axial shift could cause measurement precision issues here unless we're talking about _a_lot_ of shift, enough to get out of range.

Pickups break or become misaligned.
« Last Edit: 10/07/2013 05:17 pm by Antares »
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Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #205 on: 10/07/2013 05:20 pm »
In case of Delta IV Heavy, again, first flight of a completely new vehicle configuration and it suffered anomalies as well. Didn't prevent DoD from flying a payload on the very next flight after those anomalies were understood/resolved.

It did affect the flight sequence.  DSP-23 flew before L-26.  NRO was unwilling to take the risk.  DSP was willing since it was a less crucial payload, with replacements (follow-ons actually) in the launch queue.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline beancounter

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #206 on: 10/08/2013 03:27 am »
It's well known that SES really really want SpaceX to succeed.  Since that's a given and they have already taken on schedule delays, my belief is that they'll hang in there and wait for SpaceX to characterise the failure conditions.  Even if the underwriters reach differing conclusions to SpaceX I believe SES will still fly their sat' and take on board the risk.
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline clarkeo

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #207 on: 10/08/2013 10:53 pm »
SES seems to have arrived at the launch site! Check out @LH2Padrat's Tweet: https://twitter.com/LH2Padrat/status/387703887257669633

Offline mr. mark

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #208 on: 10/08/2013 11:03 pm »
Orbital and SpaceX teaming up what could be better? A Combined Orbital/SpaceX launch party? Sounds good to me. Like the picture!

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #209 on: 10/08/2013 11:55 pm »
padrat's going to be even more confused if they launch a satellite built by Boeing or LM

Offline rcoppola

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #210 on: 10/09/2013 12:13 am »
Orbital and SpaceX teaming up what could be better? A Combined Orbital/SpaceX launch party? Sounds good to me. Like the picture!
Going to love the fairing decals!
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #211 on: 10/09/2013 12:28 am »
SES seems to have arrived at the launch site! Check out @LH2Padrat's Tweet: https://twitter.com/LH2Padrat/status/387703887257669633

If you look closely at the spherical LOX tank you can make out part of the SpaceX logo not far from the very clear Orbital logo on the shipping enclosure.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline ChefPat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #212 on: 10/09/2013 01:19 am »
Orbital and SpaceX teaming up what could be better? A Combined Orbital/SpaceX launch party? Sounds good to me. Like the picture!
Going to love the fairing decals!

I can't wait to get the patch. ;)
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Offline ww2planes1

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #213 on: 10/09/2013 01:25 am »
Orbital and SpaceX teaming up what could be better? A Combined Orbital/SpaceX launch party? Sounds good to me. Like the picture!
Going to love the fairing decals!

Sadly, I don't think that'll be the case.  All of the SES launches I've seen (or seen picture of) don't carry the satellite manufacturer decals on the fairing.

Offline mlindner

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #214 on: 10/09/2013 02:08 am »
I spoke too generically.  I wouldn't use them in a rocket turbopump application and certain other rotating machinery, where axial shifts and some radial modes of the shaft could affect the precision of the measurement.
I'm not sure how axial shift could cause measurement precision issues here unless we're talking about _a_lot_ of shift, enough to get out of range.

Pickups break or become misaligned.

A broken pickup wouldn't affect the precision. It would make the data point read nothing. Very obvious in the data and obviously ignorable by any decent algorithm. Misalignment wouldn't affect frequency unless its on the edge of barely reading and getting intermittent signals. Can you just admit already that you're trying to make a ridiculous argument just for the sake of being confrontational?
« Last Edit: 10/09/2013 02:12 am by mlindner »
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Offline padrat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #215 on: 10/09/2013 02:50 am »
padrat's going to be even more confused if they launch a satellite built by Boeing or LM

Wouldn't that be some irony. Although something about a snowball's chance in a very warm place comes to mind.




I do hear that Boeing could be looking for a taxi service in the future though.....
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Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #216 on: 10/09/2013 06:19 am »
I spoke too generically.  I wouldn't use them in a rocket turbopump application and certain other rotating machinery, where axial shifts and some radial modes of the shaft could affect the precision of the measurement.
I'm not sure how axial shift could cause measurement precision issues here unless we're talking about _a_lot_ of shift, enough to get out of range.
Pickups break or become misaligned.
A broken pickup wouldn't affect the precision. It would make the data point read nothing. Very obvious in the data and obviously ignorable by any decent algorithm. Misalignment wouldn't affect frequency unless its on the edge of barely reading and getting intermittent signals. Can you just admit already that you're trying to make a ridiculous argument just for the sake of being confrontational?

I'm sorry, sir.  I'm only speaking out of experience.  If you're in Ann Arbor, I guess your current experience is academic.  In the real world, things break.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline StarryKnight

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #217 on: 10/09/2013 11:45 am »
padrat's going to be even more confused if they launch a satellite built by Boeing or LM

Wouldn't that be some irony. Although something about a snowball's chance in a very warm place comes to mind.

This is not at all that unlikely. While there are commercial contracts require the satellite manufacturer to provide a turnkey solution (i.e. deliver the satellite on-orbit and the satellite owner doesn't care how it gets there), more often than not these days, the satellite operator specifies to the manufacturer which launcher to use. This latter situation was the case in both the SES-8 and Thaicom-6 programs.
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #218 on: 10/09/2013 01:01 pm »
padrat's going to be even more confused if they launch a satellite built by Boeing or LM

Wouldn't that be some irony. Although something about a snowball's chance in a very warm place comes to mind.

This is not at all that unlikely. While there are commercial contracts require the satellite manufacturer to provide a turnkey solution (i.e. deliver the satellite on-orbit and the satellite owner doesn't care how it gets there), more often than not these days, the satellite operator specifies to the manufacturer which launcher to use. This latter situation was the case in both the SES-8 and Thaicom-6 programs.

Um Boeing satellites are already on SpaceX's manifest. See Asian Broadcast/Satmex.

Relevant thread: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=28328.msg872332#msg872332
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Offline padrat

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - SES-8 - DISCUSSION THREAD
« Reply #219 on: 10/10/2013 12:13 am »
Sorry, I haven't paid that much attention to the manifest to keep track of who built which satellite, other than Dragons. I'm still new to the whole world of commercial payloads....
If the neighbors think you're the rebel of the neighborhood, embrace it and be the rebel. It keeps them wondering what you'll do next...

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