Predictions for 2011

[SpacexULA]

Can't beleive we don't have a predictions 2011 thread yet!

Let's try not to beat each other up for predictions, but it's always fun to see the variety of opinions that come out each year on these.

-SpaceX will fly combined COTS2/3 and CRS 1 this year'
-SpaceX will have Falcon 1e at Kwaj by the end of the year
-STS 135 will get funded
-Virgin, Armadillo, and Masten will all reach 100km in 2011
-NASA's final budget will be no more than a 3% increase or degrees over the 2010 budget
-SDHLV will be SSME/J-2X based with upper stage baselined from the beginning
-Orbital's Taurus II/Cygnus maiden flight for COTS1 will go perfect, but not receive the attention that SpaceX COTS1 did.

I hate spell check

[kraisee]

-NASA's final budget will be no more than a 3% increase or degrease over the 2010 budget

That certainly puts an interesting spin on things

Ross.

PS -- I predict C-Star will have "something interesting" to show everyone, before the year is finished.

[Chris Bergin]

I reckon most of that is a good shout!

[gospacex]

-Oribal's Taurus II/Cygnus maiden flight for COTS1 will go perfect, but not receive the attention that SpaceX COTS1 did.

Orbital is not amused.

[Rabidpanda]

Prediction:
The design of the SLS will be finalized.  Bolden and NASA leadership  may or may not propose something non-SDHLV like an Atlas V phase two or a Saturn V remake but congress will step in and mandate an SDHLV with 5 segs, 4-5 SSME's on a stretched core, and a J-2X upper stage.  The ultimate 'political rocket'.

[Space Pete]

From an ISS perspective (as is always the case with me ), I think we'll see the following:

• Both HTV & ATV berthed to ISS simultaneously.
• The first Dragon berthing to ISS.
• The formal completion of the USOS following STS-134.
• STS-135, the return of PMA-3, and the subsequent formal completion of the Shuttle program.

[Danderman]

Charlie Bolden will retire in 2011. Lori Garver will become Acting Administrator during the long search for a permanent Administrator. Some guy named Griffin will throw his hat into the ring.

There will be only 2 Shuttle missions flown in 2011.

The chief of RSC Energia will complain that Energia is not receiving enough cash from Roskosmos, and so work will have to stop on Soyuz and Progress construction.

There will be only one Dragon flight in 2011.

There will be pressure to increase ISS crew size to increase science utilization of the station. There will be counter arguments about the ability of ISS to support a crew of 9, until someone comes up with a way to support a crew of 7 on the station. The latter may not happen until and unless MLM is at ISS.

[Danderman]

PS -- I predict C-Star will have "something interesting" to show everyone, before the year is finished.

What is "C-Star"?   

[jongoff]

Here's my predictions for this year:

1. COTS: Orbital will have a flight of Taurus II that is at least as successful as the first Falcon 9 flight.  SpaceX will have an awesome photo-op of ISS crew members transferring cargo out of Dragon on-orbit sometime before Christmas.  But there will probably be at least one sporty anomaly this year that gives critics grist for their mill, and possibly necessitate either an extra flight, or extra tests on COTS 3 before they'll be allowed to approach the station.

2. Suborbital RLVs: No fully-reusable vehicle (from Masten, Armadillo, Virgin, XCOR, or Blue Origin) will fly to 100km this year, though at least two will fly to over 30,000ft.  Armadillo may fly an HPR-style rocket to 100km, but it won't use powered landing.  At least one or two TLOVs will occur, though with no injuries.  Virgin will do a lot more drop tests, and static firing tests, but won't actually do a successful rocket-powered flight this year.  Blue will fly something, and there may be a video or some pictures, but not much information.  It will be a year of incremental progress, but nobody will actually make it all the way to 100km reusably until 2012.

3. Shuttle will retire successfully after flying 135 late in the year.

4. The restrictions on CxP cancellations will be removed, but not in a normal appropriations bill--it'll be slipped in on some "must pass" legislation like an emergency war supplemental.  Other than that, NASA will be operating under a CR for all of calender year 2011.

5. Obama's FY 2012 NASA budget will be a shocker again.  Probably with a recommended funding level noticeably below the $19B he suggested for FY11, in part of an effort to outmaneuver Republicans on deficit issues.  But no actual appropriation bill for NASA other than CR's will pass next year.

6. NASA and Congress will continue to have fights over SDLVs vs. non-SD HLVs.  If Congress does pass any language "clarifying" the situation in the favor of SDHLVs (which will be more Ares-V like than DIRECT-like), it will once again be as a rider to some "must pass" bill, not some honest indication of widespread congressional support outside of HSF districts--but it will nonetheless be painted as such an indication.  Work will start to some degree on an SD-HLV by the end of the year. 

7. All of the various small technology development programs under the OCT will be initiated, but with relatively little fanfare.  At least three new Centennial Challenges will be announced, with at least one of them regarding small payload return from ISS or propellant depots.

8. Russians will boost the price of Soyuz after Shuttle retires to somewhere in the $60-80M per seat range.

9. Either Bolden, Garver, or Holdren will step down by the end of the year.  If it is Bolden, Obama won't actually nominate someone to replace him. 

Decided to add this a few minutes later:

10. Someone else will come freaky-close on their predictions this year (maybe Jim?), and people will ask questions like "will Jon get his predictions mojo back for 2012?"

Note: I tried to make predictions of what I think will happen--not necessarily what I'd like to see happen.

~Jon

[kraisee]

What is "C-Star"?   

I guess you could call C-Star Aerospace the "Son of DIRECT".   Kinda.   Sorta.

Ross.

[2552]

PS -- I predict C-Star will have "something interesting" to show everyone, before the year is finished.

What is "C-Star"?   

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22381.msg647873#msg647873

Over the past four years, the DIRECT Team assembled a talented team from across the entire American aerospace industry. Following the successful conclusion of the DIRECT effort, the team has decided not to disband.  The team has chosen to refocus the enormous wealth of talent that has been collected, and channel this expertise in a completely new direction. Ross Tierney, original founder of the DIRECT Team said “Today, the DIRECT Team is pleased to announce the formation of a new space technology company: C-Star Aerospace, LLC.”

The core of the C-Star Aerospace team brings with them decades of experience and leadership in the space industry. The new team has already begun developing a variety of innovative new capabilities and technologies for both government and commercial industry. Over the next year, the company will be expanding its executive team and building a highly skilled workforce to ensure the success of this new commercial space enterprise.

[butters]

We are about to seat the most dysfunctional and paralyzed Congress in American history since the Civil War. Nothing will move except continuing resolutions, war supplementals, and the debt ceiling (although not without political theater).

NASA will find it extremely difficult to plan appropriately under these conditions, the operations workforce will become more anxious than ever as Shuttle runs out the clock a bit slower than expected (STS-135 in Sept/Oct), and they'll mostly blame Obama, particularly as the White House goes into campaign mode.

As part of his reelection strategy, Obama will propose a reconnaissance-centric approach to counter-terrorism as troop presence in Afghanistan is scaled back, and a new generation of spy satellites will be commissioned.

ULA and PWR will escalate their political assertiveness as a result of uncertainties in NASA planning, playing the DoD against NASA for maximum effect.

SpaceX will get approval for a combined COTS-2/3, but some anomaly during the orbit ops will cause the rendezvous to be aborted out of conservatism. Dragon will berth to the ISS successfully on the subsequent flight, NET Nov and likely slipping into 2012.

[Space Pete]

Another big issue to consider in 2011 that I forgot to mention: Will ESA receive backing from all its member nations to continue ISS operations until 2011?

They failed to get backing in a December 23rd meeting. If they can't get backing, it will be very bad news for ISS. My prediction: Don't count on the UK for support.

[Bubbinski]

I'll throw this out there:

- STS-133, 134, and 135 all fly successful missions to close out the shuttle program.
- Dragon gets COTS 2 and 3 approved as a "conditional" single flight dependent on meeting certain goals to go all the way to the ISS.  The flight itself goes well and Dragon becomes an operational vessel.
- SLS becomes something like the Jupiter 130, 4 seg SRB's and no upperstage for now with upperstage and 5 seg SRB's as future options, as Congress wants to at least make a passing effort to cut spending.
- Budget is flattish, some programs get cut (climate science, cheapest shuttle derived SLS only, future planetary mission maybe axed, etc.)
- Commercial crew approved, with one spacecraft only, probably Dragon as it's actually flying.
- Orbital Taurus/Cygnus fly successfully.
- Mars Rover Opportunity arrives at Endeavour Crater and finds something that will radically rewrite the textbooks - I will be very bold and say a fossil find.
- Mars Rover Spirit will not revive.
- Another "earth analog" will be found that will be much closer to the "holy grail".
- Virgin Galactic gets SpaceShipTwo to past the 100KM mark by end of year.  Another private space company will fly something past there as well.
- Juno and Curiosity both successfully launch and will be well on their way.

- And on a personal level I will finally get off the schneid and finish some major shuttle models I want to build before the program ends.  I'll get either a "six pack" of shuttles done or a 1/144 shuttle docked to a fully finished ISS.  I will have at least something really good to show in the NSF NASA modeling thread.
- I will also try to make one of the final shuttle launches in FL though it is not guaranteed.

[Orbiter]

- STS-133, 134, 135 will wrap up the shuttle program all 3 with success.
- Michael Griffin will still be beating the Ares dead horse.
- SpaceX will have another glorious year, Falcon 9 flies 3 times. COTS 2 and 3 merge, Dragon goes to Space Station on its 2nd flight in the April - July time frame.
- Appropriations bill will be delayed and delayed until by only 10 or so votes passing in the senate sometime in 2011. DIRECT becomes new launch vehicle.
- New Horizons will pass the orbit of Uranus.
- FGB 2 will be pushed to 2014.
- NASA approves first test flight of Orion on Delta IV (more of a wish than a guess)

Orbiter

[Patchouli]

The shuttle program will conclude with 3 successful missions.

Spacex will have a very great year with several successful launches.

SNC will do some full scale glide tests with DreamChaser.

OSC will have a successful test flight of Taurus II and Cygnus followed by announcement of a high energy upper stage for Taurus II for their lifting body crew vehicle.

One of the commercial companies likely Spacex or SNC will announce a cheap way to perform an Apollo 8 type mission.
Boeing would be a dark horse candidate here as there has to be a reason why they choose the Apollo shape other then saving CFD time.
Nasa will fund Orion on the Delta IV-H.

Armadillo will pitch a light weight lunar lander concept.

SS2 will have a successful test flight.

[SpacexULA]

My isn't every a lot more bullish this year than last.

[cd-slam]

OK, I'm feeling bold this Boxing Day.

1) NASA flies the last three shuttle missions successfully, with enormous media coverage on the last flight focusing on the glum workers packing up and leaving.

2) One month later, China launches the Shenzhou 8 mission unmanned to a successful docking with the Tiangong module. Plans are announced for manned space stations and other "space spectaculars" (this is hardly a prediction, it's already well known).

3) These events lead to a visceral reaction among the American public decrying the end of US leadership on the world stage. None of this will lead to significant change to the current US programs other than some fiery speeches.

Less controversial predictions:
5) Messenger's flight to Mercury and Dawn's mission to Vesta will reignite interest in planetary exploration.

6) 1 successful SpaceX mission to the ISS this year, possibly following some anomalies in the rendezvous mission. Cygnus delayed to 2012.

7) Russian MLM pushed even further out to 2013 or later. More interest in Russian commercial plans and potential for a Russian BEO manned commercial mission (in the longer term). The price for a Soyuz seat increases dramatically.

Successful launch of Soyuz at Kourou.

9) Further Russian-Chinese co-operation on lunar and planetary missions. Talk of manned missions will come to nothing due to Chinese military involvement.

10) More Earth-sized planets to be discovered around other stars.

11) "Planet X"/"Nemesis" Earth-sized KBO will NOT be found; interest in KBOs will diminish as a result.

12) Pluto will not be reinstated as a planet, but will lead to many new books and increase interest in astronomy.

[Ben the Space Brit]

NASA/Government Space-flight
1. Due to problems with the ET, STS-135 does not fly as one ET proves to be in an unflyable condition;
2. There is an unseemly tussle between the international partners as to who gets the 'privilege' of spending money on increased flights to fill the 'shuttle cargo gap';
3. NASA recommends either a HEFT 5/5 (A-251SH) or a Saturn-V Redux; However, it immediately runs into budget brick wall - what could be described as a '5/4', something similar to the J-130H/-241H, is proposed as a low-budget fall-back and is eventually selected (but not until the end of FY2011).  This is portrayed as a victory for SDHLV by pro-DIRECT commentators and a defeat for SDHLV by anti-SDLV commentators;
4. ULA continues to perform well with all NASA and USG flights proceeding without noticeable issues, meaning that the only time the company is in the news is the increase in EELV launch costs due to trickle-down of ATK prices for GEM solid motors;
5. Juno and MSL launch more-or-less on schedule;
6. JWST is subject to several NASA and Congressional inquiries and is put indefinitely 'on hold' pending review;
7. ESA suffers a vicious budget cut, ruling out a flight rate increase of ATV and putting full ISS utilisation on shaky ground.  Ariane-6 is cancelled on the drawing board and the subsidy on Ariane-5 is cut significantly, leading Arianespace to lose several commercial customers;
8. Russian governmental space continues to run along more-or-less on momentum.  The Soyuz replacement continues to be funded as mostly a study;
9. The Chinese Tiangong project suffers at least one major setback; China continues to talk a good game and flies nothing in HSF terms;
10. Various leaks reveal that NASA has been working with ULA on a MPCV/EELV-H system as a 'fall back' because of a complete lack of confidence in the SLS on the part of the upper echelons of the agency.

Commercial space
1. SpaceX flies four missions in 2011 - COTS 2 and 3, the long-anticipated MDA Corp commercial launch and the Falcon-1e inaugural flight.  Falcon-1e still suffers the staging lateral wobble, but achieves its planned orbit without further incident.
2. Orbital flies Taurus-II and Cygnus for the first time;
3. Virgin Galactic meets its hardware test schedule but runs into several regulatory problems that promise to delay passenger flights;
4. ILS and Land Launch benefit greatly from the Arianespace subsidy cut; Orbital and SpaceX are both approached by ILS to provide launch vehicles, however, they are informed that a high-energy upper stage is a prerequisite.  Raptor thus emerges as a more important commercial objective for SpaceX than Crewed Dragon;
5. Commercial crew is funded but at a far lower level than hoped.  At this stage, NASA only requires concept studies - no money for hardware beyond CCDev2 is available.

Space Politics
1. Charles Bolden retires.  Pres. Obama does not nominate a replacement, leaving Lori Garver effectively the unconfirmed Chief Administrator;
2. NASA, ESA, JAXA and Roscosmos reveal that they are working on a multi-national moonbase project based on propellent transfer, lunar ISRU and multi-national hardware.  There is a great deal of excitement until it is realised that this is nothing but an advanced paper study;
3. At least one new nation develops orbital launch capability and demonstrates it during the year;
4. NASA runs the entire year on a series of CRs.  Congressional activity on NASA is restricted to a continual battle between factions that wish to de-fund the agency in favour of the 'proven' commercial providers and those who wish to de-fund the 'amateurs' of commercial space in favour of the 'professionals' of NASA;
5. ULA finally admits that it is part of commercial space and NASA reluctantly admits that it wouldn't be able to function without them.  These revelations stun the semi-informed elements of the political leadership who have to revise several assumptions about how NASA works.
6. At least one major space advocacy group announces that 'Human BEO Spaceflight is dead';
7. The FY2012 budget includes some hefty cuts, most of which is aimed at HSF, with huge RIFs of operations personnel as no further USG crewed flights from KSC are anticipated until 2015 at the earliest.


[edit]
Fixed typo

[Rabidpanda]

3. NASA recommends either a HEFT 5/5 (A-251SH) or a Saturn-V Redux; However, it immediately runs into budget brick wall - what could be described as a '5/4', something similar to the J-130H/-241H, is proposed as a low-budget fall-back and is eventually selected (but not until the end of FY2011).  This is portrayed as a victory for SDHLV by pro-DIRECT commentators and a defeat for SDHLV by anti-SDLV commentators;

I don't get this one.  Why would 'anti-SDHLV commentators' proclaim a 5/4 vehicle to be a 'defeat' for SDHLV?  That doesn't make any sense, unless I'm misunderstanding what you wrote.