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#740
by
stuart_wildcat
on 21 Jun, 2011 07:15
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The ODDs for a launch day success would be based on past missions,
I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
MISSION DATE REASON OF DELAY
-------- ------ ----------
STS-134 APR 29 fault two week delay
MAY 16 success
STS-133 NOV 1 fault
NOV 2 fault
NOV 3 fault
NOV 4 weather
NOV 5 fault 3 month delay
FEB 24 success
STS-132 MAY 14 success
STS-131 APR 5 success
STS-130 FEB 7 weather
FEB 8 success
STS-129 NOV 14 LAUNCH almost delayed to NOV 17 due
to a “other” schedule problems.
STS-128 AUG 25 weather
AUG 26 fault 2 day slip
AUG 28 success
STS-127 JUNE 13 fault 4 day slip
JUNE 17 fault 1 month slip
JULY 11 weather
JULY 12 weather
JULY 13 weather 2 day slip
JULY 15 success
STS-126 MAY 11 success
STS-119 MARCH 11 fault delay is 4 days
MARCH 15 success
STS-118 NOV 14 success
STS-124 MAY 31 success
STS-123 MARCH 11 success
STS-122 DEC 7 fault 2 day slip
DEC 9 fault 2 month slip
FEB 7 success
STS-120 OCT 23 success
STS-118 AUG 8 success
STS-117 JUNE 8 success
STS-116 DEC 7 weather 2 day slip
DEC 9 success
STS-115 SEP 8 fault
SEP 9 success
STS-121 JULY 1 weather
JULY 2 weather 2 day slip
JULY 4 success
STS-114 JULY 13 fault 13 day slip
JULY 26 success
Thank you so much for this post. It really helped me understand the previous launches. I too had been wondering the success rates. It looked to me that when it came to weather, the delay is only a day or so. When it becomes mechanical, it can be one day or months. I am glad that I added a few days into my trip plans just in case it does come down to a day or so due to weather!
If you look at the subset of June/July/August launches the chance for weather delay is much greater. That is the important thing as thunderstorm season has started in earnest here in Florida.
Also, a weather delay is something where they will usually wait until the last minute before calling it off. About the only exception to that would be if weather prevented the filling of the external tank with fuel. Since there is such a small window to launch and intercept the space station weather scrubs can be trickier.
Combine that with the fact that if the launch is scrubbed last minute they are almost certain to call a 48 hour delay to account for the traffic making it tough for people who work the launch to get home and get rest we could have some significant weather problems this launch.
But of course rdale has already said the 27 day forecast is clear so no worries...
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#741
by
LostInSpace
on 21 Jun, 2011 12:48
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I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
Well this launch campaign is already an outlier, because--
Aw, forget it.
I think we're safe - the AccuWeather 27 day forecast says all clear 
LIS is rolling on the floor in tears. Too funny!!!
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#742
by
janmb
on 21 Jun, 2011 13:45
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I think we're safe - the AccuWeather 27 day forecast says all clear
That's great to know
So whose backside do we kick when we get a weather scrub on the 8th?
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#743
by
janmb
on 21 Jun, 2011 13:48
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Mine are still pretty stable but I know I need to book ASAP at this point.
My options:
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/11 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $225
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/12 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $247
I know we're not going to avoid any catastrophic delays by extending an extra day but I'm also afraid the airfare will spike if I don't book very soon.
Soooo wise folks on this board... what say ye?
In comparison, here is my own travel plan, not going for any half measures this time:
- Landing in Orlando late on the 6th (to accommodate any trouble with delayed flights etc)
- Departe from Orlando: When Atlantis is no longer on the ground
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#744
by
janmb
on 21 Jun, 2011 13:54
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The ODDs for a launch day success would be based on past missions,
I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
Good to see my gut feeling matched up that well
Slightly small statistical base though, but stil gives an idea. And as others (and myself) have already pointed out, that statistic gets a little different when narrowing the criteria somewhat, such as time of year (negative) and time to launch (positive).
All in all I for one would not go for any more than 50% chance right now, maybe even a bit less considering some of the IPRs who leave some uncertainty regarding the pad flow leading up to the 8th
Then again, the odds for an on-time launch should be less important to most spectators, since everyone with a little sense will strive to have a few more days to spend in Florida for this...
If you allow a week or two (or preferably all of July) the odds for making the launch obviously look a LOT better.
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#745
by
seattlite
on 21 Jun, 2011 14:58
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FYI: my airline ticket price went up $60 between yesterday and today.
Mine are still pretty stable but I know I need to book ASAP at this point.
My options:
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/11 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $225
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/12 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $247
I know we're not going to avoid any catastrophic delays by extending an extra day but I'm also afraid the airfare will spike if I don't book very soon.
Soooo wise folks on this board... what say ye?
From my experience with STS-134, I would want to be as flexible as possible. I would buy one way tickets. Make the arrangements for the return trip after launch, or fly SWA where there are no change fees.
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#746
by
cycleroadie
on 21 Jun, 2011 15:41
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In comparison, here is my own travel plan, not going for any half measures this time:
- Landing in Orlando late on the 6th (to accommodate any trouble with delayed flights etc)
- Departe from Orlando: When Atlantis is no longer on the ground
Be careful, I was at 133, and it took two trips. Using your departing criteria, I would have been there for over 4 months. Of course that would have been all winter, and since I live in New York state, that would have been AOK, :-)
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#747
by
Sarah
on 21 Jun, 2011 16:17
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Does anyone have an idea about what time we will need to be in line at the visitor center to go to the causeway? I want to do the shuttle launch experience this time but I'm not sure with the crowds expected that will work out time wise.
You will get that information when you board the bus. Welcome to the forum!
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#748
by
Champ7AC
on 21 Jun, 2011 16:32
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From my experience with STS-134, I would want to be as flexible as possible. I would buy one way tickets. Make the arrangements for the return trip after launch, or fly SWA where there are no change fees.
Hmm, not sure if that's possible (one-way) for me on Delta. I've got some credits/certificates I want to use up with them, so that's part of it.
Otherwise, I'd be all over flying SW for the reasons mentioned above...
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#749
by
SkierDude
on 21 Jun, 2011 16:48
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Hi, this will be my first launch viewing, so I'm getting pretty psyched.
In regards to travel plans, I'm cutting it pretty tight, as there are cost issues... hotel fees add up fast. I'm arriving early Thurs am and departing after my lunch w/ astronaut on Sat.
About the causeway:
I read the fine print about being on the causeway. It said no big shade umbrellas, but I'm certain I saw a pic from 134 that showed people under a tent-like "EZ up" thing for shade. I thought of bringing a little shade tent, but wanted to check w/ you guys first.
Another causeway question: I got causeway tix, a friend got VC. If there's likely a scrub, last minute due to weather, my causeway tix can't be reused on the causeway, correct? So here's my question: if the LTT is considered used in full once we board the bus, and there's a scrub, how do people get to view from the causeway for the next attempt?
I wonder if it would be better to dump the causeway tix and just view from the VC. Or, is the view SO much better that it's worth the chance?
Thanks for tolerating my questions.
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#750
by
cycleroadie
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:14
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Hi, this will be my first launch viewing, so I'm getting pretty psyched.
In regards to travel plans, I'm cutting it pretty tight, as there are cost issues... hotel fees add up fast. I'm arriving early Thurs am and departing after my lunch w/ astronaut on Sat.
About the causeway:
I read the fine print about being on the causeway. It said no big shade umbrellas, but I'm certain I saw a pic from 134 that showed people under a tent-like "EZ up" thing for shade. I thought of bringing a little shade tent, but wanted to check w/ you guys first.
Another causeway question: I got causeway tix, a friend got VC. If there's likely a scrub, last minute due to weather, my causeway tix can't be reused on the causeway, correct? So here's my question: if the LTT is considered used in full once we board the bus, and there's a scrub, how do people get to view from the causeway for the next attempt?
I wonder if it would be better to dump the causeway tix and just view from the VC. Or, is the view SO much better that it's worth the chance?
Thanks for tolerating my questions.
Ok, I have not seen tents on the causeway other than the ones vendors use and ones setup for VIPs. It's only a couple hours wait out there, slather on the sunscreen and enjoy the Florida sunshine.
Casueway is the best view, period, you can see the Shuttle on the pad, see Main Engine start, see it emerge from the steam cloud. There is no comparison between the VC and the causeway simply put. You couldn't pay me to trade down to VC.
As far as getting new LTT tickets in the event of a scrub, slips will be handed out for you to purchase another LTT, which can be purchased at the Visitors Center (If you are straight KSC tickets), or via your Bus Tours' website, etc. if on a bus tour.
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#751
by
LoveMrEd
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:15
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Another causeway question: I got causeway tix, a friend got VC. If there's likely a scrub, last minute due to weather, my causeway tix can't be reused on the causeway, correct? So here's my question: if the LTT is considered used in full once we board the bus, and there's a scrub, how do people get to view from the causeway for the next attempt?
I wonder if it would be better to dump the causeway tix and just view from the VC. Or, is the view SO much better that it's worth the chance?
Thanks for tolerating my questions.
Read page 10 of this thread for more info---
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#752
by
beef5stew
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:19
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1) bring a regular umbrella if you need shade. There will not be room for a tent.
2) Stick with causeway
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#753
by
DrGuano
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:22
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I wonder if it would be better to dump the causeway tix and just view from the VC. Or, is the view SO much better that it's worth the chance?
The Causeway is definitely the place to be.
But if you do decide to dump the causeway tickets, you've come to the right place.
Thanks for tolerating my answers (and see you on the Causeway!)
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#754
by
Champ7AC
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:28
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STS-135 UPDATE: SSME-3's MFV is about to be removed, will head to Canoga Park, CA. Retests at weekend - http://t.co/xREG0gI #STS135
Anyone with more knowledge care to comment as to how this may impact the launch date?
Curious newbies (a.k.a. me) would like to know!
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#755
by
cycleroadie
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:29
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STS-135 UPDATE: SSME-3's MFV is about to be removed, will head to Canoga Park, CA. Retests at weekend - http://t.co/xREG0gI #STS135
Anyone with more knowledge care to comment as to how this may impact the launch date?
Curious newbies (a.k.a. me) would like to know!
Unless issues are encountered in the change / retest, there should be no impact to the 7/8 targeted date.
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#756
by
Champ7AC
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:47
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Unless issues are encountered in the change / retest, there should be no impact to the 7/8 targeted date.
That's what I thought I was gathering from the detailed article... thanks!
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#757
by
SkierDude
on 21 Jun, 2011 17:51
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THANKS!
Causeway it is...
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#758
by
SkierDude
on 21 Jun, 2011 19:52
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Hi, I looked at the info and bookmarked some things on page 10. Thanks.
I know the LTT buses go to the causeway around 2 hrs prior to launch. How soon after launch do they return? I have a buddy w/ 1:50 tickets to the Today and Tomorrow tour. Surprised they're doing the tour right after a launch. Not sure why I'm surprised, just surprised.
I'm guessing it's better to stick around a while then to leave KSC right away. Or, maybe everyone else will think that too.
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#759
by
stuart_wildcat
on 21 Jun, 2011 19:54
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FYI: my airline ticket price went up $60 between yesterday and today.
Mine are still pretty stable but I know I need to book ASAP at this point.
My options:
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/11 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $225
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/12 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $247
I know we're not going to avoid any catastrophic delays by extending an extra day but I'm also afraid the airfare will spike if I don't book very soon.
Soooo wise folks on this board... what say ye?
I would say leave on 7/12 if those are your only two options.
Leaving on 7/12 gives you three launch opportunities assuming 48 hour scrubs each time. Also, the launch time gets earlier each day of delay so hopefully a 6PM flight from Melbourne would be OK even if it launched on 7/12.
