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#720
by
nathan.moeller
on 20 Jun, 2011 19:32
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So...from a recent historical perspective(recent history), what are the chances that there will be a technical or a weather scrub for July 8th?
Every mission is unique so this is something that cannot be quantified or gaged. They could get a weather delay, a technical delay or a combination of the two. Or, they could launch right on time into a clear blue sky. There's no way of playing the odds with something like this. It'll happen or it won't.
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#721
by
cocoa cat
on 20 Jun, 2011 19:55
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We have never been to a launch so very excited that we are going to be there....Hopefully! We haven't brought tickets for causeway/VC so were intending to watch from Titusville.
Please can someone fill us in on etiquette for viewing from there i.e can you just park the car at the side of the road/river and sit in front or do you have to be in allocated parking lots and walk to the river front. If you go into one of the parks, how far are the cars parked from good viewing areas? If we get there the suggested 8 -12hrs beforehand will it be ok just to park up somewhere - do the police move you on?
We are travelling with a toddler so it would be useful to be near the car until quite close to the time of the launch or is that too unrealistic.
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#722
by
Andrewwski
on 20 Jun, 2011 20:23
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We have never been to a launch so very excited that we are going to be there....Hopefully! We haven't brought tickets for causeway/VC so were intending to watch from Titusville.
Please can someone fill us in on etiquette for viewing from there i.e can you just park the car at the side of the road/river and sit in front or do you have to be in allocated parking lots and walk to the river front. If you go into one of the parks, how far are the cars parked from good viewing areas? If we get there the suggested 8 -12hrs beforehand will it be ok just to park up somewhere - do the police move you on?
We are travelling with a toddler so it would be useful to be near the car until quite close to the time of the launch or is that too unrealistic.
It all depends on where you are. There are some parks on the riverfront that you can watch from. But a lot of it is businesses, restaurants, etc. Many of them have parking near or on the river and will charge you a nominal fee to park there for the day.
For STS-118, we watched from a place called Paul's Smokehouse. They had a long parking lot that was right next to the river. They charged $10 per car to park, but you were parked within a hundred feet or so of the river, and had access to the restaurant all day. Which was nice, as you could grab lunch, cold drinks, etc, plus it was air conditioned.
If you find a place that is open to park at that time, you can certainly do so. Places like Space View Park and such I'd imagine you can park there any time. Keep in mind that buisnesses along the river though are largely private property, so the property owners may/may not want people parked there that early.
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#723
by
beef5stew
on 20 Jun, 2011 20:37
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FYI: my airline ticket price went up $60 between yesterday and today.
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#724
by
cocoa cat
on 20 Jun, 2011 20:38
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We have never been to a launch so very excited that we are going to be there....Hopefully! We haven't brought tickets for causeway/VC so were intending to watch from Titusville.
Please can someone fill us in on etiquette for viewing from there i.e can you just park the car at the side of the road/river and sit in front or do you have to be in allocated parking lots and walk to the river front. If you go into one of the parks, how far are the cars parked from good viewing areas? If we get there the suggested 8 -12hrs beforehand will it be ok just to park up somewhere - do the police move you on?
We are travelling with a toddler so it would be useful to be near the car until quite close to the time of the launch or is that too unrealistic.
It all depends on where you are. There are some parks on the riverfront that you can watch from. But a lot of it is businesses, restaurants, etc. Many of them have parking near or on the river and will charge you a nominal fee to park there for the day.
For STS-118, we watched from a place called Paul's Smokehouse. They had a long parking lot that was right next to the river. They charged $10 per car to park, but you were parked within a hundred feet or so of the river, and had access to the restaurant all day. Which was nice, as you could grab lunch, cold drinks, etc, plus it was air conditioned.
If you find a place that is open to park at that time, you can certainly do so. Places like Space View Park and such I'd imagine you can park there any time. Keep in mind that buisnesses along the river though are largely private property, so the property owners may/may not want people parked there that early.
Thanks for this - this helps lots. Any other advise anyone else has will be much appreciated. I know its been mentioned that SVP has big screrns but do the parks have facilities like live count down feeds through loud speakers or is that just via local radio.
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#725
by
mdeep
on 20 Jun, 2011 20:44
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Paul's Smokehouse ++
That was my preferred spot when I would view from Titusville. Easy to grab a spot on the water there, just don't wait until the last second obviously.
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#726
by
OneFish
on 20 Jun, 2011 20:54
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@ Andrewwski and Cycleroadie -- Thanks for the input.
I'm expecting a lot of traffic after the launch, but curious as to what I can expect at the CB pier/beach for the rest of the weekend. Any input from folks who stayed in the space coast for the last few launches? I'm in the first condo south of the pier and wondering if I should stock up on food/drinks to avoid fighting with traffic over the weekend following the launch?
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#727
by
John M
on 20 Jun, 2011 21:21
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For those who asked about Titusville, my experience was at Spaceview, well, just down from it. I got there about 745 or so for a 450 launch. The waterfront right at the park wasnt overly crowded, but there was quite a few people there already. I really didnt want to sit there because of the trees, so I went down just below the Wachovia in thesmall grassy area. There were like 40 or so already right at the edge. I sat about half way between there and the road. There is a small public parking area near there, and I was lucky and got a spot there. By 2pm, it was packed where I was. IF I knew how, Id post a vid of the crowd. Another guy I met down there said it was alot more people that usuall, as hes been to several from Titusville. Another guy said that it was normal, so I dont know. I do know, it was faster for me to walk to BK to use the bathroom than to wait in line at the portapotties....
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#728
by
DDG40
on 20 Jun, 2011 21:46
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@ Andrewwski and Cycleroadie -- Thanks for the input.
I'm expecting a lot of traffic after the launch, but curious as to what I can expect at the CB pier/beach for the rest of the weekend. Any input from folks who stayed in the space coast for the last few launches? I'm in the first condo south of the pier and wondering if I should stock up on food/drinks to avoid fighting with traffic over the weekend following the launch?
What I have seen the traffic is a one day pain in the butt. I notice that the traffic on A1A in cocoa beach finally eases after you get past the light at the Publix Super Market which is one block north of the pier. I have heard of people taking State rd 3 to 520 making back to the Hilton on the beach in 45 minutes. My last launch traffic expierence was 2 hours and 30 minute
from KSC VAB parking lot to 528 (no traffic) till I hit the North Banna River drive exit then it was bumber to bumber. My final destination was the Hampton on A1A. Like I stated the traffic flow is normal after you get past the light near the Publix super market.
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#729
by
janmb
on 20 Jun, 2011 22:41
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Does anyone know if Florida is going to close down the toll on 528? THat is usually the bottleneck going back to Orlando.
Pure speculation on my part, but I would say it is a pretty educated guess that they will.... Since they had the sense to do so for 134, I would imagine they know full well that the need is if anything going to be even greater for 135...
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#730
by
janmb
on 20 Jun, 2011 22:48
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Every mission is unique so this is something that cannot be quantified or gaged. They could get a weather delay, a technical delay or a combination of the two. Or, they could launch right on time into a clear blue sky. There's no way of playing the odds with something like this. It'll happen or it won't.
This illustrates a slightly weak understanding of what "odds" really means. No offense at all.
Of course the odds can be gaged! It's only hard, and contains a large uncertainty coefficient. That doesn't mean odds do not exist, nor does it mean it is utterly pointless to work them.
For people who at some point in time, often uncomfortably early, have to choose whether to commit or not, the odds is the single thing to base your decision on.
Yes, there are tons of factors weighing in here, several of which are very hard to say much about at all, but at least you can derive a good deal from simple statistics....
Don't quote me on these numbers, too late for me to look them up, but at least you get the idea:
- something like 30-40% of all scheduled launches happen on time
- when looking at scheduled launches from a 18 days ahead perspective, that percentage will naturally be a little higher
- combining that with a more detailed statistic including the time of year, the odds turn a little worse again (more weather scrubs)
All simple math when you get right down to it.
But yes, any sort of prediction, regardless of how it is made, by whom, or how long in advance, will clearly never reach 100% until SRB ignition.
I really wish people would get past the idea that lack of certainty meaning you can't derive any odds at all. Of course you can. They are just less than 100% certain (and in this case a lot less than 100%)
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#731
by
gracet
on 20 Jun, 2011 23:50
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The ODDs for a launch day success would be based on past missions,
I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
MISSION DATE REASON OF DELAY
-------- ------ ----------
STS-134 APR 29 fault two week delay
MAY 16 success
STS-133 NOV 1 fault
NOV 2 fault
NOV 3 fault
NOV 4 weather
NOV 5 fault 3 month delay
FEB 24 success
STS-132 MAY 14 success
STS-131 APR 5 success
STS-130 FEB 7 weather
FEB 8 success
STS-129 NOV 14 LAUNCH almost delayed to NOV 17 due
to a “other” schedule problems.
STS-128 AUG 25 weather
AUG 26 fault 2 day slip
AUG 28 success
STS-127 JUNE 13 fault 4 day slip
JUNE 17 fault 1 month slip
JULY 11 weather
JULY 12 weather
JULY 13 weather 2 day slip
JULY 15 success
STS-126 MAY 11 success
STS-119 MARCH 11 fault delay is 4 days
MARCH 15 success
STS-118 NOV 14 success
STS-124 MAY 31 success
STS-123 MARCH 11 success
STS-122 DEC 7 fault 2 day slip
DEC 9 fault 2 month slip
FEB 7 success
STS-120 OCT 23 success
STS-118 AUG 8 success
STS-117 JUNE 8 success
STS-116 DEC 7 weather 2 day slip
DEC 9 success
STS-115 SEP 8 fault
SEP 9 success
STS-121 JULY 1 weather
JULY 2 weather 2 day slip
JULY 4 success
STS-114 JULY 13 fault 13 day slip
JULY 26 success
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#732
by
SkierDude
on 21 Jun, 2011 00:16
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Hi all. I'm relatively new to this forum, so I have a question about ticket transaction etiquette. Sorry for putting this out there, but I'd rather ask up front as opposed to offending or upsetting anyone later.
In a prior post I mentioned having extra tickets. I got a PM asking about them. What I don't know is this: if the other person is interested in them after I give the price, how does the financial transaction take place? Do I just write back with the price or is there an etiquette of "back and forth" that happens first? Do I ask for a check or do this via PayPal or something?
Thanks.
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#733
by
idisneyfan
on 21 Jun, 2011 00:26
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The ODDs for a launch day success would be based on past missions,
I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
MISSION DATE REASON OF DELAY
-------- ------ ----------
STS-134 APR 29 fault two week delay
MAY 16 success
STS-133 NOV 1 fault
NOV 2 fault
NOV 3 fault
NOV 4 weather
NOV 5 fault 3 month delay
FEB 24 success
STS-132 MAY 14 success
STS-131 APR 5 success
STS-130 FEB 7 weather
FEB 8 success
STS-129 NOV 14 LAUNCH almost delayed to NOV 17 due
to a “other” schedule problems.
STS-128 AUG 25 weather
AUG 26 fault 2 day slip
AUG 28 success
STS-127 JUNE 13 fault 4 day slip
JUNE 17 fault 1 month slip
JULY 11 weather
JULY 12 weather
JULY 13 weather 2 day slip
JULY 15 success
STS-126 MAY 11 success
STS-119 MARCH 11 fault delay is 4 days
MARCH 15 success
STS-118 NOV 14 success
STS-124 MAY 31 success
STS-123 MARCH 11 success
STS-122 DEC 7 fault 2 day slip
DEC 9 fault 2 month slip
FEB 7 success
STS-120 OCT 23 success
STS-118 AUG 8 success
STS-117 JUNE 8 success
STS-116 DEC 7 weather 2 day slip
DEC 9 success
STS-115 SEP 8 fault
SEP 9 success
STS-121 JULY 1 weather
JULY 2 weather 2 day slip
JULY 4 success
STS-114 JULY 13 fault 13 day slip
JULY 26 success
Thank you so much for this post. It really helped me understand the previous launches. I too had been wondering the success rates. It looked to me that when it came to weather, the delay is only a day or so. When it becomes mechanical, it can be one day or months. I am glad that I added a few days into my trip plans just in case it does come down to a day or so due to weather!
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#734
by
Chris Bergin
on 21 Jun, 2011 01:01
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The ODDs for a launch day success would be based on past missions,
I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
MISSION DATE REASON OF DELAY
-------- ------ ----------
STS-134 APR 29 fault two week delay
MAY 16 success
STS-133 NOV 1 fault
NOV 2 fault
NOV 3 fault
NOV 4 weather
NOV 5 fault 3 month delay
FEB 24 success
STS-132 MAY 14 success
STS-131 APR 5 success
STS-130 FEB 7 weather
FEB 8 success
STS-129 NOV 14 LAUNCH almost delayed to NOV 17 due
to a “other” schedule problems.
STS-128 AUG 25 weather
AUG 26 fault 2 day slip
AUG 28 success
STS-127 JUNE 13 fault 4 day slip
JUNE 17 fault 1 month slip
JULY 11 weather
JULY 12 weather
JULY 13 weather 2 day slip
JULY 15 success
STS-126 MAY 11 success
STS-119 MARCH 11 fault delay is 4 days
MARCH 15 success
STS-118 NOV 14 success
STS-124 MAY 31 success
STS-123 MARCH 11 success
STS-122 DEC 7 fault 2 day slip
DEC 9 fault 2 month slip
FEB 7 success
STS-120 OCT 23 success
STS-118 AUG 8 success
STS-117 JUNE 8 success
STS-116 DEC 7 weather 2 day slip
DEC 9 success
STS-115 SEP 8 fault
SEP 9 success
STS-121 JULY 1 weather
JULY 2 weather 2 day slip
JULY 4 success
STS-114 JULY 13 fault 13 day slip
JULY 26 success
That's cool. Don't think I've seen that list before.
By the way, I see a lot of new members on this thread. Welcome to the site's forum
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#735
by
psloss
on 21 Jun, 2011 01:08
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I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
Well this launch campaign is already an outlier, because--
Aw, forget it.
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#736
by
rdale
on 21 Jun, 2011 01:16
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I dont remember where i got this but or how accurate, spot checks seem ok. i added 134. Note this is enough data to develop a success rate to work with and i does appear to be about %40.
Well this launch campaign is already an outlier, because--
Aw, forget it.
I think we're safe - the AccuWeather 27 day forecast says all clear
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#737
by
LoveMrEd
on 21 Jun, 2011 01:31
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I think we're safe - the AccuWeather 27 day forecast says all clear
Well does anyone have the odds on how long it will be until somebody quotes this as gospel?
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#738
by
Constitution
on 21 Jun, 2011 01:39
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Does anyone have an idea about what time we will need to be in line at the visitor center to go to the causeway? I want to do the shuttle launch experience this time but I'm not sure with the crowds expected that will work out time wise.
Thank you Sarah for hooking me up with this site. I enjoyed your company on the bus for STS-134. Good times! Maybe we'll run into each other at STS-135.
Go Atlantis!
-Tom
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#739
by
Champ7AC
on 21 Jun, 2011 03:37
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FYI: my airline ticket price went up $60 between yesterday and today.
Mine are still pretty stable but I know I need to book ASAP at this point.
My options:Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/11 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $225
Arrive on Thu 7/7 ... Depart on Mon 7/12 (6pm / Melbourne) ... $247
I know we're not going to avoid any catastrophic delays by extending an extra day but I'm also afraid the airfare will spike if I don't book very soon.
Soooo wise folks on this board... what say ye?
