Author Topic: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates  (Read 448907 times)

Offline JayP

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #780 on: 08/15/2011 09:42 pm »
Some notes/questions:

There's also at least one window missing, compared to the last flight.

I can't find my photos at the moment, But as I recall, there wasn't a window on this side on the first one, just the window in the hatch and the one on the opposite side from this view.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #781 on: 08/15/2011 09:45 pm »
Some notes/questions:

There's also at least one window missing, compared to the last flight.

I can't find my photos at the moment, But as I recall, there wasn't a window on this side on the first one, just the window in the hatch and the one on the opposite side from this view.


Nope, see my linked image in the last post of the previous tab - The window was there. COTS 1 Dragon had three windows. (hatch plus one on each side) I'm starting to think COTS 2/3 will only have one window in the hatch. (and even that one might disappear)
« Last Edit: 08/15/2011 09:49 pm by Lars_J »

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #782 on: 08/15/2011 09:46 pm »
Was very glad to see this update.

Things of note:

Lots of progress being made on factory ramp. Things really kicking into high gear at the Hawthorne facility. I was impressed to see how much stuff and staff they have there and the production rates they are aiming for.

Was really happy to see things appear to be coming along nicely for November, we may see a Launch as early as Nov 3 after all. Can't wait to see how this missions goes, its going to be the first big development towards returning to manned flight and at the very least, cargo flight by this country since Shuttle retired.
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Offline apace

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #783 on: 08/15/2011 09:46 pm »
But the Dragon looks much more finished now with the new surroundings around the Dracos...

Offline docmordrid

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #784 on: 08/15/2011 09:55 pm »
I did some image processing/cropping on the trunk image to bring those solar panel covers out of the shadows a bit.  Hope it's of use....
DM

Offline apace

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #785 on: 08/15/2011 09:57 pm »

A soon as Dragon is in reach of the ISS we should have good pictures of it ;-)

Offline JayP

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #786 on: 08/15/2011 10:09 pm »
Some notes/questions:
There's also at least one window missing, compared to the last flight.
I can't find my photos at the moment, But as I recall, there wasn't a window on this side on the first one, just the window in the hatch and the one on the opposite side from this view.
Nope, see my linked image in the last post of the previous tab - The window was there. COTS 1 Dragon had three windows. (hatch plus one on each side) I'm starting to think COTS 2/3 will only have one window in the hatch. (and even that one might disappear)
Yes, your right. There isn't much point for the side windows on a cargo flight. The hatch window makes sense if the're returning any cargo. The ground crew would want to be able to look in and see if any cargo came loose and was resting on the hatch before opening it.

Offline corrodedNut

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #787 on: 08/15/2011 10:10 pm »
The TPS just got a lot "sexier", didn't it? IIRC, during the COTS 1 post flight press conference, Elon said that the backshell TPS proved to be thicker than necessary, so a reduction might be what we're seeing here.

Also, when berthed to the ISS, the Dragon-side CBM hatch is slid back and stowed along the inside of the Dragon. It's possible it would block one of the windows in this position anyway. SpaceX could have decided to delete the window for this reason.

Online kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #788 on: 08/15/2011 10:50 pm »

Yes, your right. There isn't much point for the side windows on a cargo flight. The hatch window makes sense if the're returning any cargo. The ground crew would want to be able to look in and see if any cargo came loose and was resting on the hatch before opening it.
Windows also weigh more...
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Offline sdsds

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #789 on: 08/15/2011 11:17 pm »
they could easily be making as many as they can as fast as they can [based on] cost reduction reasoning.

Yes, and it is clearly Elon's "style" to do so.  He comes from an industry where the marginal cost of producing one more unit is very low ... often essentially nil.  (How much does it cost Paypal to handle one additional transaction?)  He is clearly trying to move space launch in that direction, i.e. low marginal costs to perform each additional launch.

Automating manufacturing is a piece of that.  What we still need to see  -- and hopefully COTS demo 2 will begin to show -- is something like that for the actual launch process!
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Offline Antares

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #790 on: 08/16/2011 12:43 am »
So let me pass this one on to Elon.   I get bad "vibes" about the Nov 30th launch date.   Why because it comes in the middle of the next US political sandstorm ahead.   The US super Congress report is due around that time.

IMHO, the Sept-Oct timeframe would have been better.  But what do I know?  Maybe this is NASA's way to take the interest off the Super Congress, as long as the mission goes as planned.
That is ridiculous
This launch will not be affected by it nor will this launch affect it.
Don’t dismiss this out of turn Jim
You don’t have access to the WH, or meetings between the WH and NASA management.
Sorry I just don’t have your “faith” in Washington or NASA management. What can be seen is just about everything is becoming political.

Arguably the worst societal upheavals in the 20th Century in America happened in 68 and 69.  So did Apollo 8 and Apollo 11.
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Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #791 on: 08/16/2011 12:51 am »
So let me pass this one on to Elon.   I get bad "vibes" about the Nov 30th launch date.   Why because it comes in the middle of the next US political sandstorm ahead.   The US super Congress report is due around that time.

IMHO, the Sept-Oct timeframe would have been better.  But what do I know?  Maybe this is NASA's way to take the interest off the Super Congress, as long as the mission goes as planned.
That is ridiculous
This launch will not be affected by it nor will this launch affect it.
Don’t dismiss this out of turn Jim
You don’t have access to the WH, or meetings between the WH and NASA management.
Sorry I just don’t have your “faith” in Washington or NASA management. What can be seen is just about everything is becoming political.

Arguably the worst societal upheavals in the 20th Century in America happened in 68 and 69.  So did Apollo 8 and Apollo 11.
interesting, I was thinking about Apollo 8 today.
 
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Offline Danderman

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #792 on: 08/16/2011 04:33 pm »

So let me pass this one on to Elon.   I get bad "vibes" about the Nov 30th launch date.   Why because it comes in the middle of the next US political sandstorm ahead.   The US super Congress report is due around that time.

IMHO, the Sept-Oct timeframe would have been better.  But what do I know?  Maybe this is NASA's way to take the interest off the Super Congress, as long as the mission goes as planned.

COTS Demo 2 will happen at least a week after the Super Congress finishes its work; given the SpaceX Time Dilation Effect, it would be poor planning for anyone to expect SpaceX to actually launch on November 30, and instead they should expect that COTS 2 would probably really happen days or weeks later, and it may or may not actually work.

Even if COTS Demo 2 happens on Nov 30 it would get 1% of the coverage of the Super Congress.
« Last Edit: 08/16/2011 04:37 pm by Danderman »

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #793 on: 08/16/2011 06:21 pm »
they could easily be making as many as they can as fast as they can [based on] cost reduction reasoning.

Yes, and it is clearly Elon's "style" to do so.  He comes from an industry where the marginal cost of producing one more unit is very low ... often essentially nil.  (How much does it cost Paypal to handle one additional transaction?)  He is clearly trying to move space launch in that direction, i.e. low marginal costs to perform each additional launch.


This is the worst comparison I have ever heard. How can you compare the manufacture of a spacecraft with the automated processing of electronic payments ? There is an significant incremental cost for building each unit. Even if you just add up the cost of the materials, that's a significant chunk of capital sitting in inventory. Accountants DO NOT like companies that hold huge inventory balances.

Sure, you need to pay the manufacturing staff whether or not they are actively fabricating parts, but that staff should be sized to the actual production volume, so they don't have a ton of idle time. Otherwise, you just build a "standing army" that is just standing around.

It costs close to NOTHING to process additional PayPal transactions. The only cost comes when they actually have to cut a paper check and run it through a MICR printer. The volume of that stuff is extremely low.

The only thing that Elon proves, is that Software guys can master other disciplines. Please don't make him out to be some sort of manufacturing process expert based on PayPal. He hasn't even built up enough volume experience in any of his other businesses (Solar City / Telsa) to make these types of statements.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #794 on: 08/16/2011 07:05 pm »

So let me pass this one on to Elon.   I get bad "vibes" about the Nov 30th launch date.   Why because it comes in the middle of the next US political sandstorm ahead.   The US super Congress report is due around that time.

IMHO, the Sept-Oct timeframe would have been better.  But what do I know?  Maybe this is NASA's way to take the interest off the Super Congress, as long as the mission goes as planned.

COTS Demo 2 will happen at least a week after the Super Congress finishes its work; given the SpaceX Time Dilation Effect, it would be poor planning for anyone to expect SpaceX to actually launch on November 30, and instead they should expect that COTS 2 would probably really happen days or weeks later, and it may or may not actually work.

Even if COTS Demo 2 happens on Nov 30 it would get 1% of the coverage of the Super Congress.

I don't know, there's a reasonable chance they could launch on November 30th. They already had the wet dress rehearsal (which I remember covering in the past), so we're getting pretty close to launch. The time dilation factor becomes less the closer you get to launch. Since the WDR, they probably are quite aware of just how close they are to launch. Quite different than their optimistic timelines when they initially announce a new vehicle of some type.
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Offline fbruckm

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #795 on: 08/16/2011 10:19 pm »
Does somebody know what type of 2nd stage engine nozzle extension they will fly on this mission?
I think that someone wrote during COTS1, after the extension was trimmed, that there is the possibility that they will use the shortened version for the next flights?

PS: I am reading this great site and forum for a long time - great community with a lot of information!

Offline Lars_J

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #796 on: 08/16/2011 11:01 pm »
No, that was an aberration, caused by a damaged nozzle. I would be shocked if they didn't fly with a full nozzle for maximum performance.
« Last Edit: 08/16/2011 11:02 pm by Lars_J »

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #797 on: 08/16/2011 11:11 pm »
COTS Demo 2 will happen at least a week after the Super Congress finishes its work; given the SpaceX Time Dilation Effect, it would be poor planning for anyone to expect SpaceX to actually launch on November 30, and instead they should expect that COTS 2 would probably really happen days or weeks later, and it may or may not actually work.

Even if COTS Demo 2 happens on Nov 30 it would get 1% of the coverage of the Super Congress.

I wish I had your faith that the "Super Congress" will do anything, let alone anything of significance, buy the end of November.  On the other hand, I am OK not sharing your belief that they are relevant to SpaceX in the short term, and the COTS-2/3 flight in particular.

Note that this flight is unlike any previous launch for SpaceX.  The time dilation factor may not be allowed.  Traffic at the ISS is intensly coreographed and scheduled.  While it may be necessary and possible to jump to a later time, it will not be possible for SpaceX to slip day-for-day.  This is a totally new challenge for SpaceX, and we will see if they can meet it.

Note that even the most recent update says that NASA has "agreed in principle" to merging COTS 2 & 3.  It is still not approved, and may not be before the launch, which is now 15 weeks away
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Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #798 on: 08/16/2011 11:30 pm »
The SpaceX hype has started and its not even near Nov.
 
Pulled up Yahoo News today and it was on Page 1.
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Offline Mindbuilder

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Re: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates
« Reply #799 on: 08/17/2011 12:54 am »
Does anyone know what those little yellow squares are stuck all over Dragon in the latest SpaceX update?

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