Author Topic: SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates (Read 448922 times)

mr. mark · « **Reply #600 on:** 07/08/2011 02:39 am »

Well, we will find out soon enough about COTS 2/3. In the meantime there's the last shuttle flight about to launch. It's the end of an era and hopefully the beginning of a bright new one. Right now, near term, the destination is the ISS. I'm looking forward to Spacex playing a part in it.

Antares · « **Reply #601 on:** 07/08/2011 02:53 am »

Quote from: corrodedNut on 07/08/2011 12:13 am

one of which fell off after the last launch for reasons unknown.

To be clear, the blogosphere doesn't know, but the blogosphere can't say whether or not SpaceX knows.

mr. mark · « **Reply #602 on:** 07/08/2011 04:48 pm »

Lori Garver was also at pad 40 inspecting the COTS 2 first stage and participating in the discussion.

SpacemanInSPACE · « **Reply #603 on:** 07/09/2011 06:28 am »

What is the current status on the Dragon? Anyone know?

mr. mark · « **Reply #604 on:** 07/09/2011 02:07 pm »

Dragon systems on the new COTS 2 capsule were first tested about 2 weeks ago and everything went great according to a report. I'm sure at this point it is undergoing further testing.

Jason1701 · « **Reply #605 on:** 07/09/2011 08:38 pm »

It will be doing software testing and simulations from now until Nov-Dec, with a break sometime for shipping.

mr. mark · « **Reply #606 on:** 07/10/2011 03:18 pm »

If Spacex stated correctly, the second stage for COTS 2 should have arrived at pad 40 and is in the hangar.

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #607 on:** 07/11/2011 02:35 pm »

Quote from: Jason1701 on 07/09/2011 08:38 pm

It will be doing software testing and simulations from now until Nov-Dec, with a break sometime for shipping.

So, that pretty much rules out any launches this year.

mr. mark · « **Reply #608 on:** 07/11/2011 04:33 pm »

I'm not sure if that is correct. Several NASA officials have said that the next launch would be late 2011. You have to remember a lot of what is being posted is speculative as Spacex has not had an update on their website since very early May. They did state that the second stage was being shipped and would arrive around the time of the shuttle launch. That we know. So, by their account it SHOULD be there. But, unless we get a picture update or walk into the hangar at pad 40, there is no way of knowing for sure.

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #609 on:** 07/11/2011 04:40 pm »

Quote from: mr. mark on 07/11/2011 04:33 pm

I'm not sure if that is correct. Several NASA officials have said that the next launch would be late 2011. You have to remember a lot of what is being posted is speculative as Spacex has not had an update on their website since very early May. They did state that the second stage was being shipped and would arrive around the time of the shuttle launch. That we know. So, by their account it SHOULD be there. But, unless we get a picture update or walk into the hangar at pad 40, there is no way of knowing for sure.

Well, if they are still performing their software testing in December, then I assume it is still technically possible for them to launch sometime around the holidays, but I don't see that happening.

Comga · « **Reply #610 on:** 07/11/2011 04:59 pm »

Quote from: Lurker Steve on 07/11/2011 02:35 pm

Quote from: Jason1701 on 07/09/2011 08:38 pm
It will be doing software testing and simulations from now until Nov-Dec, with a break sometime for shipping.

So, that pretty much rules out any launches this year.

Coiuld he have meant instead that they will be testing almost until launch?
Jason?

Nate_Trost · « **Reply #611 on:** 07/11/2011 08:05 pm »

Quote from: mr. mark on 07/11/2011 04:33 pm

I'm not sure if that is correct. Several NASA officials have said that the next launch would be late 2011.

What is this "would be" business? Considering the NET dates I've seen on the NASA documentation (which I think is all L2 level), if it is a combined mission, and you're going to bet on the launch not slipping into 2012, you're essentially betting that everything comes up roses over the next four months for SpaceX on their most challenging mission yet. Which given past history, is quite a leap of faith. There is also the issue of the additional testing milestones NASA commissioned. While they may do good things for mission assurance, they of course do so at the risk of slipping the schedule if issues are uncovered in testing.

mr. mark · « **Reply #612 on:** 07/11/2011 08:42 pm »

I'm not personally stating anything, just quoting what other ranking NASA official have said. My opinion is just that and I'm not stating it at least on this. Like I said before, there have been no Spacex updates for over 2 months now so everything is completely speculative. What we do know is this, there is a first stage and interstage in the hangar at pad 40. We also know that the second stage was supposed to be delivered about 2 days ago. We heard from a second hand source that Dragon COTS 2 start up went well with no issues. That's about all we know as of now. So lot's of speculation and some hardware at the pad, that's it. Jim's always been good at guessing dates for launches. He has a good degree of knowledge about software issues with new spacecraft and has said that software is most often the long pole in spaceflight. Maybe he can chime in and give a best guesstimate on 2011-2012.

hop · « **Reply #613 on:** 07/11/2011 09:11 pm »

Quote from: mr. mark on 07/11/2011 08:42 pm

I'm not personally stating anything, just quoting what other ranking NASA official have said.

AFAIK the combined COTS 2/3 has always been NET late 2011 since the idea was proposed. In a development program, the smart money doesn't bet on the NET date. I wouldn't take some NASA official not spelling out the NET as an indication the date was firm.

Note that the non-combined COTS 2 was penciled in for the middle of this month, according to Chris's May article: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/05/nasa-aligning-combine-final-dragon-cots-missions/

Jason1701 · « **Reply #614 on:** 07/11/2011 09:23 pm »

Quote from: Comga on 07/11/2011 04:59 pm

Quote from: Lurker Steve on 07/11/2011 02:35 pm
Quote from: Jason1701 on 07/09/2011 08:38 pm
It will be doing software testing and simulations from now until Nov-Dec, with a break sometime for shipping.

So, that pretty much rules out any launches this year.

Coiuld he have meant instead that they will be testing almost until launch?
Jason?

Correct. IIRC, the months of delay to COTS 1 were caused by the need to test the Dragon's software and how it interacted with the launch vehicle and Mission Control. And, of course, COTS 2 is a far more complicated mission; Dragon will need to talk with ISS as well.

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #615 on:** 07/14/2011 09:25 pm »

Quote from: hop on 07/11/2011 09:11 pm

Quote from: mr. mark on 07/11/2011 08:42 pm
I'm not personally stating anything, just quoting what other ranking NASA official have said.
AFAIK the combined COTS 2/3 has always been NET late 2011 since the idea was proposed. In a development program, the smart money doesn't bet on the NET date. I wouldn't take some NASA official not spelling out the NET as an indication the date was firm.

Note that the non-combined COTS 2 was penciled in for the middle of this month, according to Chris's May article: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/05/nasa-aligning-combine-final-dragon-cots-missions/

And it's come up during the STS-135 MSB presser. The FD noted the plan is to combine and that the launch date is being evaluated, expected to be December or early 2012.

I don't think this is an official SOMD type decision yet, just the work to plan ahead of that formal announcement.

Garrett · « **Reply #616 on:** 07/15/2011 10:43 am »

Not sure where to post this question as I haven't seen a dedicated SpaceX CRS thread.

SpaceX's launch manifest includes one resupply mission to ISS in 2011*, and then three per year thereafter. My questions are: if the first resupply mission is significantly late** (say, three to six months), would it make sense for NASA/SpaceX to aim for shorter intervals in between launches to make up for lost time? Or is the flight rate of roughly one launch every four months more desirable for NASA?

*SpaceX specifies that the target date indicates hardware arrival at launch site.
**following from the above statement, the definition of "late" is not clear-cut. Also, as far as I understand it, the current Shuttle mission has carried one year of supplies to absorb some delay with the resupply missions. I am assuming a CRS-1 launch in Jan 2012 to be "on-time", so April 2012 would be 3 months late.

Cheers,
Garrett

Lurker Steve · « **Reply #617 on:** 07/15/2011 01:46 pm »

Quote from: Garrett on 07/15/2011 10:43 am

Not sure where to post this question as I haven't seen a dedicated SpaceX CRS thread.

SpaceX's launch manifest includes one resupply mission to ISS in 2011*, and then three per year thereafter. My questions are: if the first resupply mission is significantly late** (say, three to six months), would it make sense for NASA/SpaceX to aim for shorter intervals in between launches to make up for lost time? Or is the flight rate of roughly one launch every four months more desirable for NASA?

*SpaceX specifies that the target date indicates hardware arrival at launch site.
**following from the above statement, the definition of "late" is not clear-cut. Also, as far as I understand it, the current Shuttle mission has carried one year of supplies to absorb some delay with the resupply missions. I am assuming a CRS-1 launch in Jan 2012 to be "on-time", so April 2012 would be 3 months late.

Cheers,
Garrett

I believe an "on-time" CRS flight would have occurred sometime in 2009. The Q1 2012 date is just the latest iteration of the schedule that has already been shifted to the right multiple times.

Garrett · « **Reply #618 on:** 07/15/2011 03:55 pm »

Quote from: Lurker Steve on 07/15/2011 01:46 pm

I believe an "on-time" CRS flight would have occurred sometime in 2009. The Q1 2012 date is just the latest iteration of the schedule that has already been shifted to the right multiple times.

Ok, let's define "on-time" as being something different to being "on-schedule". In this case, on-time means occurring within a time-frame that allows NASA to have a substitute cargo vehicle after the Shuttle's retirement. NASA have bought some time for SpaceX (and the other CRS contractors) with the current cargo aboard STS-135, with provisions until late Q2 2012. SpaceX have been promising a 2011 arrival at the launch pad for the past year I believe, so NASA is well aware of what "on-time" means.

So to summarize, I would define late Q2 2012 as too close to the wire to be called on-time. Early Q1 2012, would, I presume, be satisfactory for ISS resupply needs, so I consider it on-time.

I also need to restate my initial question: would resupply flights with shorter intervals than four months, so as to "catch-up" on lost time, be of practical use to NASA/ISS?

Lee Jay · « **Reply #619 on:** 07/15/2011 04:08 pm »

Quote from: Garrett on 07/15/2011 10:43 am

Also, as far as I understand it, the current Shuttle mission has carried one year of supplies to absorb some delay with the resupply missions. I am assuming a CRS-1 launch in Jan 2012 to be "on-time", so April 2012 would be 3 months late.

At one of the briefings yesterday, it was said that the successful completion of STS-135 places them into a position where they wouldn't run out of supplies through the end of 2012 even if nothing else went up except for the Russian Progress resupply vehicles. ATV and HTV add additional margin on top of this, and any CRS flights would continue extending this out farther.

I don't know how accurate this is, but that's what was said.