SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates

[mr. mark]

First stage at the cape today. Second stage arrives tomorrow (Friday, July 8th)

[Jason1701]

Nice picture! Were you there in person?

[mr. mark]

No, Just off the internet. Wish I could go. It's interesting about the second stage. Spacex reported just the 60 second test of the second stage. Wondering if they performed a full duration burn or if that is even necessary? Good news about the second stage arriving tomorrow.
 

[mr. mark]

This just in....

The agency is “awfully close” to agreeing on the proposal (combining COTS 2/3) after considering it for about seven months, said Allard Beutel, a NASA spokesman.

[tigerade]

This just in....

The agency is “awfully close” to agreeing on the proposal (combining COTS 2/3) after considering it for about seven months, said Allard Beutel, a NASA spokesman.

I'm assuming that SpaceX wished to combine COTS2/3 to save money and time.  But at this point, has it really saved either?  Wouldn't it have been better to keep separate missions?

[ugordan]

It saves them money, not time.

[mr. mark]

Interesting thought, after the last shuttle launch all cargo delivered to the ISS will be automated by the Russian, European and Japan space agencies as well as Spacex Dragon and Orbital Science's Cygnus. Reduces the risk of manned spaceflight considerably. That's a good thing and makes manned ISS runs for taxi purposes only.   

[baldusi]

It saves them money, not time.

They did had to do a lot more risk reduction testing and demonstrations (asked and payed by NASA). But the good thing is that if the combined mission is successful, they will be on time (around Dec 2011), but with a lot more testing. If it's not successful, it will have cost the same than the dual mission, but with a lot less risk. So this saves them money and risk. The second stage issue didn't helped, either.

[Lurker Steve]

Interesting thought, after the last shuttle launch all cargo delivered to the ISS will be automated by the Russian, European and Japan space agencies as well as Spacex Dragon and Orbital Science's Cygnus. Reduces the risk of manned spaceflight considerably. That's a good thing and makes manned ISS runs for taxi purposes only.   

It doesn't reduce the risk of manned spaceflight. It just reduces the actual number of manned spaceflights. Since we are actually flying less often, one could argue that there is a potential for the risk to be greater, since we are less practiced in the skill of manned spaceflight.

[baldusi]

Interesting thought, after the last shuttle launch all cargo delivered to the ISS will be automated by the Russian, European and Japan space agencies as well as Spacex Dragon and Orbital Science's Cygnus. Reduces the risk of manned spaceflight considerably. That's a good thing and makes manned ISS runs for taxi purposes only.   

It doesn't reduce the risk of manned spaceflight. It just reduces the actual number of manned spaceflights. Since we are actually flying less often, one could argue that there is a potential for the risk to be greater, since we are less practiced in the skill of manned spaceflight.

The rate of manned flight will be about the same, four times per year to the ISS (that's two for each supplier or crew launch). The LV will have dual use as satellite launchers (F9 and Atlas 5), so the rate of launches will greatly be enhanced. How would you feel to fly in an Altas 5 given its track record? I would feel pretty confident.
In the case of Dragon (if elected for Crew), it would also use basically the same capsule on those cargo runs. So you'd be basically tripling the launches, and docking/berthing events per year. So your chances of an undiscovered failure affecting a crewed vehicle go down to 33% And that's assuming another four cargo runs, many people consider that more cargo would be need for full utilization. And thus, that probability might go even lower. The Atlas 5 is launching some five times a year, too.
I would be surprised if after CrewDev, the next cargo competition is a combined cargo/crew offer (like Cargo/Crew Dragon on Falcon 9 and Cargo/Crew CST-100 on Atlas 5). Can't get better redundancy than that and at "relatively" low cost.

[Jason1701]

Interesting thought, after the last shuttle launch all cargo delivered to the ISS will be automated by the Russian, European and Japan space agencies as well as Spacex Dragon and Orbital Science's Cygnus. Reduces the risk of manned spaceflight considerably. That's a good thing and makes manned ISS runs for taxi purposes only.   

It doesn't reduce the risk of manned spaceflight. It just reduces the actual number of manned spaceflights. Since we are actually flying less often, one could argue that there is a potential for the risk to be greater, since we are less practiced in the skill of manned spaceflight.

Or you could say that from now on, 100% of manned orbital spaceflights will have a launch abort system.

[mr. mark]

New Spacex launch facilities videos and COTS 2 videos.










 

[Jason1701]

Thanks so much for the links.

[Antares]

Since we are actually flying less often, one could argue that there is a potential for the risk to be greater, since we are less practiced in the skill of manned spaceflight.

Disagree.  The skills lost are unique to the system/hardware.  SpaceX has the people they need to fly the system they have.  If anyone can do a job at SpaceX as well or better than the people there, SpaceX is constantly hiring.

[Lurker Steve]

Since we are actually flying less often, one could argue that there is a potential for the risk to be greater, since we are less practiced in the skill of manned spaceflight.

Disagree.  The skills lost are unique to the system/hardware.  SpaceX has the people they need to fly the system they have.  If anyone can do a job at SpaceX as well or better than the people there, SpaceX is constantly hiring.

If the Russians continue their Soyuz flights at the current pace, then there are really only 2 or 3 US manned flights per year. Now, the hope is that someone other than NASA will purchase additional flights, but 2 or 3 flights spread across several vendors makes a very infrequent flight rate.

My point is that a team that performs a task 5-6 times per year is more practiced in that skill  a team that performs that task once per year. I'm not convinced that their ability to launch cargo enhances their ability to launch humans.

Now if SpaceX would finally launch something, so we can get back on topic...

[Robotbeat]

Since we are actually flying less often, one could argue that there is a potential for the risk to be greater, since we are less practiced in the skill of manned spaceflight.

Disagree.  The skills lost are unique to the system/hardware.  SpaceX has the people they need to fly the system they have.  If anyone can do a job at SpaceX as well or better than the people there, SpaceX is constantly hiring.

If the Russians continue their Soyuz flights at the current pace, then there are really only 2 or 3 US manned flights per year. Now, the hope is that someone other than NASA will purchase additional flights, but 2 or 3 flights spread across several vendors makes a very infrequent flight rate.

My point is that a team that performs a task 5-6 times per year is more practiced in that skill  a team that performs that task once per year. I'm not convinced that their ability to launch cargo enhances their ability to launch humans.

Now if SpaceX would finally launch something, so we can get back on topic...

Cargo Dragon is going to do most of the same things crew Dragon (if chosen) would do. Many of the "extra" things needed for crew capability (such as LAS, manual control backup) would only be required in an emergency, thus wouldn't be exercised in any case.

And, of course, there will likely be many other launches with whatever vehicles are used with commercial crew. That's a large part of the experience right there with significant exercising more than just once or twice a year.

[corrodedNut]

Looks like the transporter/erector has been beefed up, or at least redesigned.  I'm referring to the gripper-arms, one of which fell off after the last launch for reasons unknown. This component has been changed three times in as many launches. You can see the old gripper arms via google Earth, lying in the SpaceX "boneyard" in the NW of the pad.

I'm not complaining, I just enjoy watching the design of the vehicle and it's systems evolve. Hope they stay on this time!

[mr. mark]

To me launch pad operations were mostly the only black market in the COTS 1 flight. Getting it right this time along with a successful flight goes a long way toward operational status. Let's hope for a major success!

[RocketEconomist327]

<snip>

Now if SpaceX would finally launch something, so we can get back on topic...

SpaceX is no longer the hold up.  NASA is reviewing and validating data from SpaceX.  Once the data is validated, then SpaceX will be assigned a slot to fly to station.

SpaceX can fly a lot sooner.  However, we all know about the bubble around ISS and what is required to berth.

VR
RE327

[hop]

SpaceX is no longer the hold up.  NASA is reviewing and validating data from SpaceX.  Once the data is validated, then SpaceX will be assigned a slot to fly to station.

^{[citation needed]}

Seriously, you are making a whole bunch of assumptions there. Even if SpaceX is actually "done" the process between NASA and SpaceX has to be iterative: NASA finds some area of concern, SpaceX goes off and looks into it, adjustments are made, rinse repeat.