SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates

[Mike_1179]

Why would they need to make the decision this far in advance of the launch?

Crew training?

[Halidon]

Why would they need to make the decision this far in advance of the launch?

Crew training?

I thought a post upthread covered this, the expedition has been trained to grab and berth dragon.

[RocketEconomist327]

Why would they need to make the decision this far in advance of the launch?

I know!  I know!  I know!

They don't.

VR
RE327

[A_M_Swallow]

What difference does it make whether NASA makes a decision now or in two weeks? SpaceX aren't flying anything any time soon in either case.

There is a cut off date after which SpaceX tells NASA what the decision was.

No, there isn't.  Spacex is not going to the ISS if NASA doesn't say so.

If NASA management is too indecisive and weak to make a yes/no decision it will not make an unpopular ban decision that results in personnel blame.  Standard bureaucracy.

[Jim]

just trying to make AM_Swallow make sense.

not possible

[Lurker Steve]

Regardless of whether or not NASA allows SpaceX to combine both the COTS 2 tasks and COTS 3 tasks into a single Falcon 9 / Dragon flight, when will SpaceX actually be ready to perform these tasks ?

When is the absolute earliest date that a completed Dragon will arrive at the Cape that includes the hardware and software necessary to complete the COTS 2 goals ?

When is the absolute earliest date that a completed Dragon will arrive at the Cape that includes the hardware and software necessary to complete the COTS 3 goals ?

How much longer is that first stage going to sit in the hanger ?

[mr. mark]

The only reason I mentioned this is because there is a rash of given dates and expectations from Orbital, Spacex and NASA that will never be met at least on their time frame. I blame alot of this on Elon Musk whose imagination is way head of his own company's ability to produce those results in the near future. I do believe that Dragon can and will berth to the ISS in the near future. But powered landings, going to Mars and building a Vandenberg launch launch complex as well as launching the Falcon Heavy in 2 years time seems alot to ask. A sensible conservative approach with timely satellite launches and ISS cargo would be a better approach to show prospective customers and the public. Let's stop all the Mars business now and just get to Earth orbit.

[SpacemanInSPACE]

The only reason I mentioned this is because there is a rash of given dates and expectations from Orbital, Spacex and NASA that will never be met at least on their time frame. I blame alot of this on Elon Musk whose imagination is way head of his own company's ability to produce those results in the near future. I do believe that Dragon can and will berth to the ISS in the near future. But powered landings, going to Mars and building a Vandenberg launch launch complex as well as launching the Falcon Heavy in 2 years time seems alot to ask. A sensible conservative approach with timely satellite launches and ISS cargo would be a better approach to show prospective customers and the public. Let's stop all the Mars business now and just get to Earth orbit.

The Falcon Heavy is necessary for LEO activity by allowing Spacex a share of the Heavy satellites used by the Air Force, and I don't think anyone is realisticly thinking of using a Falcon Heavy for Manned Mars missions.

[Jason1701]

The only reason I mentioned this is because there is a rash of given dates and expectations from Orbital, Spacex and NASA that will never be met at least on their time frame. I blame alot of this on Elon Musk whose imagination is way head of his own company's ability to produce those results in the near future. I do believe that Dragon can and will berth to the ISS in the near future. But powered landings, going to Mars and building a Vandenberg launch launch complex as well as launching the Falcon Heavy in 2 years time seems alot to ask. A sensible conservative approach with timely satellite launches and ISS cargo would be a better approach to show prospective customers and the public. Let's stop all the Mars business now and just get to Earth orbit.

You're confusing Elon's vision of the future with his immediate company goals.

[hop]

The only reason I mentioned this is because there is a rash of given dates and expectations from Orbital, Spacex and NASA that will never be met at least on their time frame.

In other words, just like almost every other spacecraft development program in human history. It would be far more noteworthy if it wasn't true for the COTS teams.

But powered landings, going to Mars and building a Vandenberg launch launch complex as well as launching the Falcon Heavy in 2 years time seems alot to ask.

Do you have any evidence these things are actually taking resources away from the COTS effort ? As far as I can tell, all the Mars stuff is just talk. FH, VAFB pad and Crew Dragon+LAS could conceivably conflict, but it's not a given.

[Lurker Steve]

The only reason I mentioned this is because there is a rash of given dates and expectations from Orbital, Spacex and NASA that will never be met at least on their time frame.

In other words, just like almost every other spacecraft development program in human history. It would be far more noteworthy if it wasn't true for the COTS teams.

But powered landings, going to Mars and building a Vandenberg launch launch complex as well as launching the Falcon Heavy in 2 years time seems alot to ask.

Do you have any evidence these things are actually taking resources away from the COTS effort ? As far as I can tell, all the Mars stuff is just talk. FH, VAFB pad and Crew Dragon+LAS could conceivably conflict, but it's not a given.

I guess it all depends on whether there is a separate hardware / software team for the Crew Dragon and the Cargo Dragon. If the Software team needs to be modifying the software to handle multiple configurations, especially as hardware components of the Crewed-version are still being defined / changed / modified, then this adds to the development time, plus it adds to the number of required testing paths exponentially.

[pathfinder_01]

I guess it all depends on whether there is a separate hardware / software team for the Crew Dragon and the Cargo Dragon. If the Software team needs to be modifying the software to handle multiple configurations, especially as hardware components of the Crewed-version are still being defined / changed / modified, then this adds to the development time, plus it adds to the number of required testing paths exponentially.

I would rather doubt seperate hardware/software teams for both. Musk's goal is to keep the two or three different versions of dragon as alike as possible. He basically is going to evolve the crew Dragon using the cargo one that might risk delaying the cargo flights a bit but it should control his costs and give him confidence about his equipment.

[go4mars]

I don't think anyone is realisticly thinking of using a Falcon Heavy for Manned Mars missions.

I think you're wrong. 

[baldusi]

I don't think anyone is realisticly thinking of using a Falcon Heavy for Manned Mars missions.

I think you're wrong. 

I don't know for Mars. I do know that the project for using the flat pad at KSC LC 39 did included a figure of an astronaut over a Falcon Heavy. Why would you use a FH for launching an astronaut, I don't know. It should be able to launch slightly beefed Dragon on TLI, though.

[SpacemanInSPACE]

I don't consider Dr. Zubrin's 4 FH Mars mission as realistic, but perhaps i'm wrong, I would gladly be blown away   Anyways, about the Demo 2 flight, anyone have any news of how high a priority 1st stage recovery will be?

[jabe]

Anyways, about the Demo 2 flight, anyone have any news of how high a priority 1st stage recovery will be?

i remember reading somewhere (don't ask me weere) that they are delaying trying to recover the 1st stage for while..too much on their plate is my guess
jb

[Antares]

IMEO, SpaceX is managing their internal resources well against near-term needs and long-term goals.

Downside is, are they, with their Falcon Heavy pronouncements, setting up their fans and Capitol Hill overseers for unrealistic expectations that cannot be met?

[beancounter]

Isn't this supposed to be an 'COTS Demo 2 Updates' thread?  So far, nearly all of it's been speculation and discussion which more correctly belongs in a general SpaceX discussion thread surely. 
I don't check all that often so it's annoying to troll through pages of this stuff just to find the occassional piece of actual update.
Cheers.

[MKremer]

Isn't this supposed to be an 'COTS Demo 2 Updates' thread?  So far, nearly all of it's been speculation and discussion which more correctly belongs in a general SpaceX discussion thread surely. 
I don't check all that often so it's annoying to troll through pages of this stuff just to find the occassional piece of actual update.
Cheers.

I agree. This is mostly filled with wishes/what-ifs/speculations/criticisms. Hardly any actual news and updates that the thread was meant for.

(Make a separate "SpaceX Free-for-all" thread for all this other stuff.)

[Nomadd]

Isn't this supposed to be an 'COTS Demo 2 Updates' thread?  So far, nearly all of it's been speculation and discussion which more correctly belongs in a general SpaceX discussion thread surely. 
I don't check all that often so it's annoying to troll through pages of this stuff just to find the occassional piece of actual update.
Cheers.

I agree. This is mostly filled with wishes/what-ifs/speculations/criticisms. Hardly any actual news and updates that the thread was meant for.

(Make a separate "SpaceX Free-for-all" thread for all this other stuff.)

You mean like the last two posts? (Three counting this one)