SpaceX COTS Demo 2 Updates

[JNobles]

A few weeks back on SpaceVidCast I heard Bobby Block say he expected COTS 2/3 to go right before the end of the year.  So, before Christmas, hopefully.

[mr. mark]

Update: The plan for the SpaceX COTS demonstration flight(s) will be decided soon:
 
During a June 1 news briefing, NASA Associate Administrator for Space Operation Bill Gerstenmaier said the agency would decide by the end of this month on a launch strategy for the first commercial resupply mission using the SpaceX Dragon.-hobbyspace.com

[docmordrid]

Aviation Week....

>
Gerstenmaier said. “We were thinking around the October/November time frame — maybe September.” Fossum, assisted by Furukawa, is prepared for Dragon’s arrival.
>

[Comga]

Aviation Week....

>
Gerstenmaier said. “We were thinking around the October/November time frame — maybe September.” Fossum, assisted by Furukawa, is prepared for Dragon’s arrival.
>

“It’s my job to reach out and grab it,” Fossum said in a pre-mission  interview in March. “That’s a potentially very challenging task. I’ve  trained hundreds of hours.”

Well, that answers one question about going for berthing on the next Dragon flight.  Fossum has trained for the capture, berthing, and release.  It had been mentioned (can't remember where) that a combined mission was not possible on the previous COTS-2 flight schedule because the trained astronauts were not yet on the ISS.

[gregpet]

Aviation Week....

NASA is leaning toward an initial test flight to demonstrate Dragon’s on-orbit operations, followed by a combining of the second and third of the previously planned SpaceX demonstration missions into a single cargo delivery flight. Dragon will rendezvous with the orbiting science laboratory, easing close enough for the station’s robot arm to grapple and berth the freighter.

Am I missing something...This seems like really big news.  According to the quote, SpaceX will be launching a Dragon demonstration flight (to demonstrate on-orbit operations) then a combined COTS 2/3 with actual NASA cargo.

In other words (the way I am reading this) we will see another Dragon flight before it goes to the space station (for risk reduction) then if all goes well another flight (with real cargo) will complete all COTS 2/3 requirements then berth with the station...

So you still cut out a flight but use the first cargo mission to complete COTS 2/3...

[mr. mark]

You're missing something. The only flights schedules are for COTS 2/3 and the first stage and interstage are at the cape right now awaiting integration for that launch. They already demonstrated on orbit with COTS 1, no need to do a COTS 1 mission profile twice.

[gregpet]

You're missing something. The only flights schedules are for COTS 2/3 and the first stage and interstage are at the cape right now awaiting integration for that launch. They already demonstrated on orbit with COTS 1, no need to do a COTS 1 mission profile twice.

I totally understand what you are saying and you may very well be right but there is a lot of new hardware going on the Dragon (a big one being solar panels) so it doesn't seem completely out of the question for one more risk reduction Dragon flight then use Cargo#1 flight to finish up the COTS 2/3 testing and berth with the station (with actual NASA cargo)...Just my $.02

[psloss]

but there is a lot of new hardware going on the Dragon (a big one being solar panels) so it doesn't seem completely out of the question for one more risk reduction Dragon flight then use Cargo#1 flight to finish up the COTS 2/3 testing and berth with the station (with actual NASA cargo)...Just my $.02

The original plan to fly COTS 2 and COTS 3 separately would effectively be the same thing and that's already part of existing agreements.

The big picture hasn't changed much from Chris's article last month:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/05/nasa-aligning-combine-final-dragon-cots-missions/

[Jason1701]

Am I missing something...This seems like really big news.  According to the quote, SpaceX will be launching a Dragon demonstration flight (to demonstrate on-orbit operations) then a combined COTS 2/3 with actual NASA cargo.

In other words (the way I am reading this) we will see another Dragon flight before it goes to the space station (for risk reduction) then if all goes well another flight (with real cargo) will complete all COTS 2/3 requirements then berth with the station...

So you still cut out a flight but use the first cargo mission to complete COTS 2/3...

It's just Aviation Week missing the boat by half a year. The Dragon on-orbit demonstration flight was C1; the next flight will be C2 with an option to accomplish the C3 berthing objective if all C2 objectives have been met. (My take.)

Edit: AvW lets Gaetano post everywhere; how credible can they be?

[mmeijeri]

Am I missing something...This seems like really big news.  According to the quote, SpaceX will be launching a Dragon demonstration flight (to demonstrate on-orbit operations) then a combined COTS 2/3 with actual NASA cargo.

I think Jason is right, the test flight is the flight we saw late last year. If not, what would be the difference between what you're describing and COTS 1, 2, 3 as initially planned?

[gregpet]

Am I missing something...This seems like really big news.  According to the quote, SpaceX will be launching a Dragon demonstration flight (to demonstrate on-orbit operations) then a combined COTS 2/3 with actual NASA cargo.

I think Jason is right, the test flight is the flight we saw late last year. If not, what would be the difference between what you're describing and COTS 1, 2, 3 as initially planned?

For the record I think you are all correct (and I fell victim to some lazy reporting by Aviation Week). 

[mr. mark]

Simply put, they don't have time for another risk mitigation flight. The astronauts who are trained to do and are going to perform the Dragon berthing are arriving at the ISS via Soyuz TONIGHT. That's TONIGHT. So most likely NASA is going to give the go ahead for a combined COTS 2/3 flight in a few weeks. Chris has said documents pointing to this have been passing through the NASA chain of command.

[psloss]

Simply put, they don't have time for another risk mitigation flight. The astronauts who are trained to do and are going to perform the Dragon berthing are arriving at the ISS via Soyuz TONIGHT.

The next Station Expedition crews are probably getting (or have already gotten) similar training for berthing both CRS vehicles.  Crew training isn't likely to be a central factor in the decision on combining SpaceX COTS 2 and 3.

[Antares]

For NASA, it's the calendar time. For SpaceX it's the cost of another Falcon and Dragon stack.

[NotGncDude]

You're missing something. The only flights schedules are for COTS 2/3 and the first stage and interstage are at the cape right now awaiting integration for that launch. They already demonstrated on orbit with COTS 1, no need to do a COTS 1 mission profile twice.

Oh lordy. COTS 1 had very little to do with what goes on during AR&D. It was a very basic functionality test. Not saying they can't argue they can do it on the first try (see OSC), but they definitely haven't demonstrated it.

[NotGncDude]

For NASA, it's the calendar time. For SpaceX it's the cost of another Falcon and Dragon stack.

Yup yup, it's $$ for spacex

[clarkeo]

Dragon will be sent to the ISS at the end of this year, NASA Associate Administrator for Space Operations William Gerstenmaier told a press conference
The spacecraft will fly next autumn, maybe in November-December, he said.

http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/162275.html

Is this confirmation of COTS2/3? its not very specific?
It seems like a long time to wait before another launch perhaps they are planning to launch a commercial payload between now and then seeing they've already shipped the first stage to the cape... thats just my speculation or more correctly what I would like to see them do seeing they seem to have from what has been said recently, enough stages in the pipe it just seems to be dragon testing and software holding them up. But then again there hasn't been word on the payload fairing in quite a while.

[majormajor42]

Yep. Just saw Jeff Foust tweet this.

So big announcement came out of Russia. I guess they did have some final concerns and now gave the okay?

[Jason1701]

perhaps they are planning to launch a commercial payload between now and then seeing they've already shipped the first stage to the cape... thats just my speculation or more correctly what I would like to see them do seeing they seem to have from what has been said recently, enough stages in the pipe it just seems to be dragon testing and software holding them up. But then again there hasn't been word on the payload fairing in quite a while.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like any commercial payloads are ready. The ORBCOMM demo sats will launch with the next Dragon; the MDA payload follows C2/3 and ORBCOMM on their manifest, but that's been bumped for years now and will probably continue to slip. Besides those, there's nothing commercial until SES hardware arrival in 2013.

[psloss]

Yep. Just saw Jeff Foust tweet this.

So big announcement came out of Russia. I guess they did have some final concerns and now gave the okay?

No, Mr. Gerstenmaier was just answering a question about the current plan, which hasn't changed.  (Still looking to combine the missions, but no decision yet -- still pointing at the end of the month to assess.  Still looking at end of November timeframe.)