Author Topic: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System  (Read 26682 times)

Offline Damon Hill

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US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« on: 08/17/2010 02:24 am »
Somehow, this new system hasn't shown up in discussion here, so I'm kicking off in the commercial launch section even though it's a military system.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/08/10/army-wants-nanomissiles-launch-small-satellites/

Basically a very simple, very modular launch system that in it's full-up version can put 10kg (22 lbs) into orbit.  Built around a self-pressurizing liquid fuel/oxidizer scheme using ethane and nitrous oxide, that can be used to throw everything from smart rocks to tiny recon sats.  It could be the smallest satellite launcher yet (how small can a fully self-contained launch system get?)

Video here:



Don't know if a two stage core could be launched into orbit underneath a F-15 lofting it to Mach 2 and high altitude.   

I'm wondering why a simple system like this wasn't available decades ago, or was it?  Seems like a good sounding rocket system, or commercial tinysat launcher, as well as the obvious military applications.

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #1 on: 08/17/2010 03:12 am »
Google the N.O.T.S. system from the late 50's, all solid air launched system weighted 900kg + aircraft, payload 1kg

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/propilot.htm
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Offline kch

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #2 on: 08/17/2010 03:28 am »

Offline neilh

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #3 on: 08/17/2010 04:18 pm »
The low-cost pressure-fed modules remind me a lot of the ill-fated OTRAG project:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTRAG_(rocket)
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Offline jongoff

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #4 on: 08/17/2010 07:31 pm »
This is a project that my friends at Orion Propulsion (now part of Dynetics) have been working on for a while.  I'm definitely a fan of nanosat launch, and think Tim Pickens' team is great.  Not to mention that Col London literally wrote one of the books on low-cost launch (LEO On The Cheap).  Their idea of launching constellations of nanosats for Army use is pretty clever IMO.  While MNMS isn't exactly the technical approach I would take for nanosat launch (I'm more of a very simple RLV first stage combined with an expendable upper stage sort of guy), it seems to be a reasonable and feasible approach to solving the problem.

What I'm curious if anyone knows how secure their funding situation is.  Last I heard this was initially funded by an earmark from Shelby to a company run by a friend of his (COLSA), and that the earmark for the project had run out earlier this year.  Does anyone have any more recent info?  In one of the articles on this that I saw recently, they mentioned that in addition to the $7M they had already recieved, that they need to raise another $17M to complete the project.  Does anyone know if they're actually actively funded right now, or are they in a fundraising mode?  I guess I could probably ask Tim, I was just curious if anyone on here had more recent info they could share.

~Jon
« Last Edit: 08/17/2010 07:32 pm by jongoff »

Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #5 on: 08/17/2010 07:47 pm »
This is the basic issue, what are the benefits of "constellations of nanosats" to the warfighter.  There is very little a constellations of nanosats can do for a warfighter aside from comm. and there are many other spacecraft than can do that.

Optics are too small for reconn
Aperture too small and orbit too low for sigint.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2010 07:48 pm by Jim »

Online Robotbeat

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #6 on: 08/17/2010 08:34 pm »
This is the basic issue, what are the benefits of "constellations of nanosats" to the warfighter.  There is very little a constellations of nanosats can do for a warfighter aside from comm. and there are many other spacecraft than can do that.

Optics are too small for reconn
Aperture too small and orbit too low for sigint.
Agreed, however this sort of capability might be useful for putting up a rudimentary sat comm network if other spacecraft have been taken out by anti-sat weapons. A strategic capability, not a tactical one.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2010 08:35 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline IsaacKuo

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #7 on: 08/17/2010 08:49 pm »
Comms might be reason enough.  It's not just a question of whether you have comms, but how much you have.  When every soldier, vehicle, drone, and camera has realtime video, the bandwidth requirements would be mindnumbing.

Offline Idol Revolver

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #8 on: 08/17/2010 08:51 pm »
Also seems similar to Scorpius, but on a much smaller scale.
EDIT: There have been two similar projects before: OTRAG and Scorpius. Both got nowhere (admittedly at least partially through lack of funding). Just an observation.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2010 08:53 pm by Idol Revolver »

Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #9 on: 08/17/2010 09:35 pm »
Comms might be reason enough.  It's not just a question of whether you have comms, but how much you have.  When every soldier, vehicle, drone, and camera has realtime video, the bandwidth requirements would be mindnumbing.

And nanosats aren't going to be able to help.  They are low power, low bandwith.  Also how many nanosats would be required for a constellation?  Probably too many to use this method of launch.

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #10 on: 08/17/2010 10:58 pm »
Comms might be reason enough.  It's not just a question of whether you have comms, but how much you have.  When every soldier, vehicle, drone, and camera has realtime video, the bandwidth requirements would be mindnumbing.

And nanosats aren't going to be able to help.  They are low power, low bandwith.  Also how many nanosats would be required for a constellation?  Probably too many to use this method of launch.
Certainly low-bandwidth, no better than something like Orbcomm. You'd need lots of these things, for sure... But the idea would be that they'd be much cheaper, perhaps as cheap or cheaper than an antisatellite weapon system.

A telegraph wire is just about infinitely better than nothing.
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Offline Sparky

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #11 on: 08/18/2010 05:14 am »
A couple of thoughts:

1)Nanosats could be used for safely deorbiting other sats. The military might find this useful after the situation involving the deorbit of USA193. The debris left in orbit after that delayed the launch of another DOD sat, so I can see how they might have learned their lesson on that one.

2)Such a deorbiting system might even double as specific kind of antisat weapon, taking out enemy comms while leaving the orbital environment clean for future US sats.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2010 05:15 am by Sparky »

Offline jongoff

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #12 on: 08/18/2010 05:39 pm »
Comms might be reason enough.  It's not just a question of whether you have comms, but how much you have.  When every soldier, vehicle, drone, and camera has realtime video, the bandwidth requirements would be mindnumbing.

And nanosats aren't going to be able to help.  They are low power, low bandwith.  Also how many nanosats would be required for a constellation?  Probably too many to use this method of launch.

You'd be surprised.  I knew some of the guys on the Army side working on this at the time.  They were pretty convinced that they had uses for sats in the 1-10kg range.  The big thing for them is getting something that isn't crumbs left over from the Air Force.  Same reason why the Army is doing so much with UAVs (since they can't own fixed-wing combat aircraft), why they did the Sky Warrior variant on the Predator, etc.  Most of the people I've talked with this on the demand side could understand the picture.

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #13 on: 08/18/2010 06:12 pm »
1)Nanosats could be used for safely deorbiting other sats. The military might find this useful after the situation involving the deorbit of USA193.

Delightfully ironic.


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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #14 on: 08/19/2010 05:22 am »
Another thought: If the Nano sats are small enough, they might be able to escape tracking by enemy nations. This advantage alone might be able to justify recon sats of that size.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #15 on: 08/19/2010 05:29 am »
At 10 kg (estimated) the Kestrel Eye reconnaissance satellite may just fit on a MNMS launch vehicle.

Fact sheet

http://www.smdc.army.mil/FactSheets/KestrelEye.pdf

Video (launched on something else)

« Last Edit: 08/19/2010 05:30 am by A_M_Swallow »

Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #16 on: 08/19/2010 01:36 pm »
At 10 kg (estimated) the Kestrel Eye reconnaissance satellite may just fit on a MNMS launch vehicle.

Fact sheet

http://www.smdc.army.mil/FactSheets/KestrelEye.pdf


There are some basic holes. 

How many spacecraft will it take to be "on demand"?  Tdon't know the answer but it will be too many to be launched by MNWS

What if there is multiple users wanting to task a satellite?

How does one know when a satellite is available?

Small spacecraft aren't going to have the power and bandwith to push the data to the user.

The 10 minute cycle is too fast for the spacecraft to react.
« Last Edit: 08/19/2010 01:39 pm by Jim »

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #17 on: 08/19/2010 01:57 pm »

Though it sounds pie in the sky, I think the big diff between these sats (you will need hundreds) and most imaging sats is they have a narrow field of view and can only look at one object at a time. Basically a fancy iphone inspace, not a landsat...

The questions will be,

How fast can they be assigned a target.
How fast can they get you the data you need. 10 Minutes is a very long time to wait to for an image in ground combat.

I think multiple users is a non issue... It is a matter of juggling priorities.
I also feel if you are taking single snapshots you you are not going to be running into much of a bandwidth issue. Especially if it is transmitting directly to the ground station.

I do agree, it would be better to use a "larger" launcher to deliver multiple payloads, but then you get into the sat needing fuel for station keeping, extra comm for station keeping, ect. The thing will snowball in weight. It always amazes me when someone mentions the weight of a sensor on an earth observing sat and then you notice it is only a small fraction of the weight of actual bus.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #18 on: 08/19/2010 02:15 pm »
At 10 kg (estimated) the Kestrel Eye reconnaissance satellite may just fit on a MNMS launch vehicle.

Fact sheet

http://www.smdc.army.mil/FactSheets/KestrelEye.pdf


There are some basic holes. 

How many spacecraft will it take to be "on demand"?  Tdon't know the answer but it will be too many to be launched by MNWS

What if there is multiple users wanting to task a satellite?

How does one know when a satellite is available?

Small spacecraft aren't going to have the power and bandwith to push the data to the user.

The 10 minute cycle is too fast for the spacecraft to react.

I think they were talking about a reasonable sized constellation.  Something like six planes with 5-12 satellites per plane.  Put up over about a 1-2wk period during the run-up to a conflict.  At a reasonable altitude, that should be able to get you something that has a decent view on a pretty frequent basis.  Nowhere near as good as the AF birds when they're actually overhead, but having 30-72 satellites in the constellation means you're a lot more likely to get intelligence on demand a lot better. 

But your other point, about whether MNMS could really put up that many satellites that quick is a good question.

One of the challenges here is that because you want several different planes, and you can't afford to spend months letting the satellites phase into the right plane, and you can't afford multiple plane change burns to get stuff into the right plane, you're looking at at least six launches to service the need.  With Pegasus/Taurus/Minotaur that would be *way* too expensive.  With Falcon 1, I don't think they could handle that fast of a surge rate.

Definitely leaves the door open for a high-surge-rate capable nanosat launchers, IMO.

~Jon

Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #19 on: 08/19/2010 02:37 pm »

I think multiple users is a non issue... It is a matter of juggling priorities.
I also feel if you are taking single snapshots you you are not going to be running into much of a bandwidth issue. Especially if it is transmitting directly to the ground station.


I don't think it is going to transmit directly to ground station, that would require maneuvering and a directional antenna.  If it is omni directional, then there will be bandwidth issues.  Cell phone don't transmit that far. 

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #20 on: 08/19/2010 03:45 pm »
One acronym, AEHF ;)

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Offline mike robel

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #21 on: 08/19/2010 03:50 pm »
10 minutes is a long time when in the fight.  However, before we invaded Iraq the first time, we set across the border from them in our attack positions for about 2 weeks.  Plenty of time to put up small satellites to determine/verify the results of ground recon, UAV, and identify enemy reserves outside of our target acquisition range.

If I need info on the enemy 10 minutes out (which works out to about 2.5 km away at normal march rates - more if you are manuvering) a UAV is going to be the platform of choice.

I can see a use for these small sats in the right circumstances, particularly if we (Army units in theatre) can launch them at need, and they downlink to the user in a time-sensitive manner.  I don't see the establishment of big constellations of these, rather they will be launched in theatre to target specific intelligence tasks that cannot be promptly filled by other Army/USAF systems.  I wonder how long you could expect such a small satellite to remain operational and remain in orbit.

I see this targeted at Division and Corps Commander needs, not so much brigade and battalion.  Certainly not company commander level.

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #22 on: 08/19/2010 04:02 pm »
The 10 minute cycle has nothing to do with what is happening around the user.

1.  It does not include ground station setup
2.  It assumes  spacecraft is available and is going to have a ground track near the user.
3. The user knows the targets
4.  The ten minutes is from tasking to receipt of data.  This means that the satellite has propulsive attitude control and cell phone type data rates


Offline XP67_Moonbat

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #23 on: 08/19/2010 05:19 pm »
Heres a fact sheet on the missile:
http://www.smdc.army.mil/FactSheets/MNMS.pdf

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #24 on: 08/19/2010 05:30 pm »
Could it be used suborbitally for single-shot surveillance? Just a thought.
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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #25 on: 08/19/2010 05:41 pm »
Could it be used suborbitally for single-shot surveillance? Just a thought.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #26 on: 08/19/2010 05:47 pm »
Could it be used suborbitally for single-shot surveillance? Just a thought.
Spensive...

Yeah, for that you'd want something that was reusable.  That was TGV's business case.

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #27 on: 08/19/2010 07:09 pm »
{snip}
At a reasonable altitude, that should be able to get you something that has a decent view on a pretty frequent basis.  Nowhere near as good as the AF birds when they're actually overhead, but having 30-72 satellites in the constellation means you're a lot more likely to get intelligence on demand a lot better. 

The bane of the small observing satellite is:
+  Aperture size
+  Pointing ability
+  Data rate (really rate is limited by available xmit power/antenna gain)

Ideally you have all three, though by definition a small satellite cannot have a large aperture.  To make up for the limited space for optics  require extreme pointing capabilities, which generally isn't available in a small sat.

The optics are generally why optical observation birds are the size that they are.

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #28 on: 08/19/2010 11:25 pm »
{snip}
At a reasonable altitude, that should be able to get you something that has a decent view on a pretty frequent basis.  Nowhere near as good as the AF birds when they're actually overhead, but having 30-72 satellites in the constellation means you're a lot more likely to get intelligence on demand a lot better. 

The bane of the small observing satellite is:
+  Aperture size
+  Pointing ability
+  Data rate (really rate is limited by available xmit power/antenna gain)

Ideally you have all three, though by definition a small satellite cannot have a large aperture.  To make up for the limited space for optics  require extreme pointing capabilities, which generally isn't available in a small sat.

The optics are generally why optical observation birds are the size that they are.

So, for something like the KestrelEye, do you think they're being overoptimistic in their spec sheet (I think they claimed 1.5m resolution), or just leaving out details?  You're definitely in a better position to know on things like this than most.

~Jon
« Last Edit: 08/19/2010 11:27 pm by jongoff »

Offline XP67_Moonbat

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #29 on: 08/20/2010 04:02 pm »
Jst slightly off-topic, but a launcher variant of the Pershing missile was looked at back in the day.

http://www.flightglobal.com/pdfarchive/view/1963/1963%20-%200641.html?tracked=1

The Army, theoretically could've had the sort of launch capability back then that they're looking at now with MNMS.
« Last Edit: 08/20/2010 04:43 pm by XP67_Moonbat »

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #30 on: 08/20/2010 04:19 pm »
{snip}
At a reasonable altitude, that should be able to get you something that has a decent view on a pretty frequent basis.  Nowhere near as good as the AF birds when they're actually overhead, but having 30-72 satellites in the constellation means you're a lot more likely to get intelligence on demand a lot better. 

The bane of the small observing satellite is:
+  Aperture size
+  Pointing ability
+  Data rate (really rate is limited by available xmit power/antenna gain)

Ideally you have all three, though by definition a small satellite cannot have a large aperture.  To make up for the limited space for optics  require extreme pointing capabilities, which generally isn't available in a small sat.

The optics are generally why optical observation birds are the size that they are.

So, for something like the KestrelEye, do you think they're being overoptimistic in their spec sheet (I think they claimed 1.5m resolution), or just leaving out details?  You're definitely in a better position to know on things like this than most.

~Jon
Jon, it works roughly like this:

resolution=1.22*(altitude)*(wavelength)/(aperture diameter)

They mention 10 inches as roughly the aperture diameter, which is about .25 m, and for a minimum altitude of 200km (2E5m) and a wavelength of about 500nm (5E-7m) , we should get a diffraction limit of about:

1.22*2E5m*5E-7m/.25m=1.22*.1m/.25=.488m

So, 1.5m seems reasonable enough, and because of the low ballistic coefficient of such a low mass but "large" satellite, I would imagine you'd want to be higher than 200km, probably at least 400km. Plus, your wavelength would also be more like 600nm, and combined with imperfect optics, 1.5m seems right on.
see:http://www.google.com/search?q=1.22*500km*(600nm)/(10+inches) gives about 1.44m.
« Last Edit: 08/20/2010 04:23 pm by Robotbeat »
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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #31 on: 08/20/2010 06:26 pm »

resolution=1.22*(altitude)*(wavelength)/(aperture diameter)

They mention 10 inches as roughly the aperture diameter, which is about .25 m, and for a minimum altitude of 200km (2E5m) and a wavelength of about 500nm (5E-7m) , we should get a diffraction limit of about:

1.22*2E5m*5E-7m/.25m=1.22*.1m/.25=.488m


Pure angular resolution isn't the only factor that defines system resolution.  Using only angular resolution implies that  your detector is an array of points, which is never the case.

Typical detectors are CCDs, and the size and sensitivity of the individual pixels are a major contributor to the overall system capability.  Most of the detectors used for this type of application have surprisingly large pixels, and surprisingly long integration times.

You also start to be limited by things like geolocation accuracy and repeatability when you start talking about responsive (near real time) tasking.  If  you can image  1Kmx1Km at .4M resolution, but can only geolocate and point with 12Km accuracy, then you could end up shooting useless targets and/or not know exactly where you imaged.


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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #32 on: 08/20/2010 06:30 pm »

resolution=1.22*(altitude)*(wavelength)/(aperture diameter)

They mention 10 inches as roughly the aperture diameter, which is about .25 m, and for a minimum altitude of 200km (2E5m) and a wavelength of about 500nm (5E-7m) , we should get a diffraction limit of about:

1.22*2E5m*5E-7m/.25m=1.22*.1m/.25=.488m


Pure angular resolution isn't the only factor that defines system resolution.  Using only angular resolution implies that  your detector is an array of points, which is never the case.

Typical detectors are CCDs, and the size and sensitivity of the individual pixels are a major contributor to the overall system capability.  Most of the detectors used for this type of application have surprisingly large pixels, and surprisingly long integration times.
For a day-time, visible image? That is surprising...
Quote
You also start to be limited by things like geolocation accuracy and repeatability when you start talking about responsive (near real time) tasking.  If  you can image  1Kmx1Km at .4M resolution, but can only geolocate and point with 12Km accuracy, then you could end up shooting useless targets and/or not know exactly where you imaged.
Absolutely. But you don't need to say that in your marketing material... :P
« Last Edit: 08/20/2010 06:36 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline simonbp

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #33 on: 08/26/2010 03:33 am »
Pure angular resolution isn't the only factor that defines system resolution.  Using only angular resolution implies that  your detector is an array of points, which is never the case.

Typical detectors are CCDs, and the size and sensitivity of the individual pixels are a major contributor to the overall system capability.  Most of the detectors used for this type of application have surprisingly large pixels, and surprisingly long integration times.

You also start to be limited by things like geolocation accuracy and repeatability when you start talking about responsive (near real time) tasking.  If  you can image  1Kmx1Km at .4M resolution, but can only geolocate and point with 12Km accuracy, then you could end up shooting useless targets and/or not know exactly where you imaged.

If you're only looking for one year of operation, you can probably get away with commercial-grade CCD sensors. 1km square at 1.5m resolution is 0.4 megapixels, and at two pixels per resolution unit (pseudo-nyquist sampling), it's 1.7 megapixels, or less than a quarter of the phone in my pocket.

With such a small aperture and low orbit, the real camera issue isn't resolution, but integration time. That will probably drive them to an astronomical sensor with low-noise amplifier. But again, with ~1 year on orbit, it doesn't need to be rad-hard, so an off-the-shelf commercial astro chip should work.

Geolocation is an interesting issue, and one that I'd solve with a combination of cheap MEMS accelerometers (again, cell-phone tech) for pointing and real-time updates on the orbit from Space Command for position. There are probably other ways too, but the trick is remembering that computing is cheap and light, while specialty sensors (e.g. startrackers) are heavy and complex.

Communications is probably through a mesh network, like many ground-based sensor nets. Specifically, you'd have one or two sats imaging at a time, and the rest acting as relays to a ground station or geosync com sat...
« Last Edit: 08/26/2010 03:42 am by simonbp »

Offline Proponent

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #34 on: 08/26/2010 05:06 am »
I imagine this is well off into the realm of science fiction at this stage, but maybe you could have cloud of small sensors that could function as an interferometer.  Quite a few challenges but possible in principle.  Then you could get fantastic resolution and the system would be insensitive largely to the loss of a few components.

Offline Sparky

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #35 on: 08/26/2010 05:34 am »
I imagine this is well off into the realm of science fiction at this stage, but maybe you could have cloud of small sensors that could function as an interferometer.  Quite a few challenges but possible in principle.  Then you could get fantastic resolution and the system would be insensitive largely to the loss of a few components.

Every technological feat was science fiction until somebody did it.

I'm guessing that the real push for this launch system might be for purposes other than purely coms or recon. Such small nanosats could just as easily be piggybacked onto other more conventional launches. The selling points here seem to be its small size and mobility. I wonder if a launch system and sat are small enough, it might be possible to evade tracking. Or, alternatively, if the launch is detected, mobility might lend plausible deniability to whom the the launch was from.

Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #36 on: 08/26/2010 12:58 pm »

1.  Geolocation is an interesting issue, and one that I'd solve with a combination of cheap MEMS accelerometers (again, cell-phone tech) for pointing and

2. real-time updates on the orbit from Space Command for position. There are probably other ways too, but the trick is remembering that computing is cheap and light, while specialty sensors (e.g. startrackers) are heavy and complex.

Communications is probably through a mesh network, like many ground-based sensor nets. Specifically, you'd have one or two sats imaging at a time, and the rest acting as relays to a ground station or geosync com sat...

1.  Cheap MEWS would be accurate enough

2.  Not a given.  The orbit could be such that it is without ground station coverage for many orbits

3.geosync com sat for relay would take a lot more power for the transmitter

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #37 on: 08/26/2010 04:07 pm »
Star trackers don't necessarily have to be that big... It's possible to fit a star tracker on a nanosat, for sure (though ultimate pointing accuracy is probably limited by aperture size... should be able to get to just a fraction of an arc minute in a very small package, smaller than a human eye). And a Sun or Earth sensor can be very small (though accuracy/precision is generally less than a star tracker).
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Offline Blackstar

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #38 on: 08/26/2010 04:44 pm »
This has the look and feel of a pet project that is going to die out in a couple of years.  It's got a number of things working against it.  None of them individually are killers, but collectively they could be a big obstacle.  Just off the top of my head:

-the Army doesn't build space systems, doesn't really have the expertise, and always faces the risk of the Air Force stomping on their programs and getting them shut down.  Yeah, we're talking about small rockets and small satellites here, but that makes them unusual and in some ways makes them sophisticated, which is difficult for a service with no experience base.

-the goal seems pretty ill-defined.  There's no real existence proof.  What exactly is this going to do?  Why is that necessary?  And is there reason to believe that it can be done better with a space system than with terrestrial systems?  Or by other similar existing space systems?  And that also touches on issues of turf.  Before the US Army starts operating its own reconnaissance satellites, they will have to talk to the guys at the National Reconnaissance Office, who will fight them tooth and nail unless they are convinced that this new approach is a) necessary, b) a good idea, c) won't undercut existing NRO programs, and d) is better done by the Army than the NRO.

-the technology is new and still mostly-theoretical.  There are some big questions that follow from my previous point--what is it going to do, and can it actually do that?  Large constellations of satellites are neat in concept, tough in reality.  It takes a lot of effort to manage the GPS constellation, or the Iridium constellation for that matter.  Put a constellation that big into low Earth orbit and you have to manage it.  Even if the satellites are simpler, there's still a ground station challenge that is probably not on anybody's radar right now.  (That's pretty common, actually--lots of people like to design paper rockets and paper satellites and think that stuff like command and control and tracking and data reduction are simply "details" that will be worked out by somebody else.)


If you want a sense of what is going to happen with this initiative, you should look at the Operationally Responsive Space experience.  ORS was birthed around 2000 or so, with some plans to bring down launch costs significantly to enable small satellites and rapid response.  I believe that this is where the Falcon 1 entered the picture, with an original launch cost of around $5 million apiece.  (Anybody know what the list price is for a Falcon 1 now?)

What is going on now?  Launch costs for small satellites have not dropped at all, and in fact in some cases are higher on a per-pound basis than mid-sized rockets (which ain't cheap).  ORS has slowed and regularized into what looks like a project to build perhaps a payload or two a year, if that.  And the initial efforts have not been that promising.  (One built satellite will probably never fly.  The first satellite launched actually did not get used for a number of months due to a policy dispute that should have been worked out beforehand.)  There's also some indication that ORS is simply out of political favor right now.  It's sponsors have left the Pentagon, and it has not yet returned results that are amazing enough to convince all the new people.

So when somebody comes in excited and with a great new idea, it helps to wait until they have stopped panting and then asked them to answer all of these kinds of questions.

Offline go2mars

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #39 on: 08/26/2010 08:53 pm »
-the Army doesn't build space systems, doesn't really have the expertise, and always faces the risk of the Air Force stomping on their programs and getting them shut down. 
-the goal seems pretty ill-defined.  What exactly is this going to do?  Why is that necessary?  And is there reason to believe that it can be done better with a space system than with terrestrial systems?  Or by other similar existing space systems?  And that also touches on issues of turf.  Before the US Army starts operating its own reconnaissance satellites, they will have to talk to the guys at the National Reconnaissance Office, who will fight them tooth and nail unless they are convinced that this new approach is a) necessary, b) a good idea, c) won't undercut existing NRO programs, and d) is better done by the Army than the NRO.

If a foe sets off an EMP, or otherwise removes the majority of US satellites from usefulness, you can bet that the army would rather have a bunch little crappy cameras with them in the field, ready for quick-launch than nothing at all.  Plus at 10 kg, they would be smaller targets if it was ground based ASAT.  If the satellites are taken out/blinded by other little enemy satellites (rumoured to exist), then you might be able to have more cameras to launch than they have of little predator satellites.   

It also could be used to test technologies for small hypersonic ground-ground or ground-air missiles (scram/ram).

  I believe that this is where the Falcon 1 entered the picture, with an original launch cost of around $5 million apiece.  (Anybody know what the list price is for a Falcon 1 now?)

Falcon 1 is a lot bigger/less transportable.  It costs $10.9 million for 1010 kg.  This other system is talking about ~10 kg.  One needs liquid oxygen, the other just needs ethane and nitrous oxide.  Far different uses/mobility levels.

My best guess is that its to see how cats like space.  :)
« Last Edit: 08/26/2010 09:03 pm by go2mars »

Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #40 on: 08/26/2010 09:07 pm »

If a foe sets off an EMP, or otherwise removes the majority of US satellites from usefulness, you can bet that the army would rather have a bunch little crappy cameras with them in the field,

And those in the field would not be able to find the targets because
a.  GPS would be knocked ou
b. Comsats would be too

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #41 on: 08/26/2010 09:19 pm »

If a foe sets off an EMP, or otherwise removes the majority of US satellites from usefulness, you can bet that the army would rather have a bunch little crappy cameras with them in the field,

And those in the field would not be able to find the targets because
a.  GPS would be knocked ou
b. Comsats would be too
I imagine that the army would be interested in having a few backup batches of GPS (even if relatively crude) and comm sats available for those reasons. If most of your bombs and UAVs suddenly become useless, you're kind of screwed, aren't you?

I don't know if MNMS would be able to provide anything like that (and, as Blackstar points out, there's a lot of details to work out for launching a satellite constellation on short notice), but I suspect that's a large part of the motivation for this project.
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Offline Jim

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #42 on: 08/26/2010 09:56 pm »
I imagine that the army would be interested in having a few backup batches of GPS (even if relatively crude) and comm sats available for those reasons. If most of your bombs and UAVs suddenly become useless, you're kind of screwed, aren't you?
t.

This can't replace comsats and GPS spacecraft

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #43 on: 08/26/2010 10:13 pm »
I imagine that the army would be interested in having a few backup batches of GPS (even if relatively crude) and comm sats available for those reasons. If most of your bombs and UAVs suddenly become useless, you're kind of screwed, aren't you?
t.

This can't replace comsats and GPS spacecraft
I realize that, but they could replace something like the ORBCOMM network (~40kg microsats), and the satellite phone LEO constellations are able to do crude positioning within a few kilometers, though obviously that precision leaves much to be desired.
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Offline Blackstar

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #44 on: 08/27/2010 01:17 am »
I realize that, but they could replace something like the ORBCOMM network (~40kg microsats), and the satellite phone LEO constellations are able to do crude positioning within a few kilometers, though obviously that precision leaves much to be desired.

Wow, kilometer accuracy.

Look, this is not a replacement for GPS.  And it's not a replacement for traditional comm.  The key question is what is it good for?

Offline Blackstar

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #45 on: 08/27/2010 01:24 am »
This can't replace comsats and GPS spacecraft

It's worth repeating (I'm sure Jim knows this, so I'm repeating this for everybody else): GPS is the size it is because they couldn't make it any smaller.  They've tried.  The equipment, the altitude and power requirements, all drive it to the size that it's at.

GPS has been around for several decades now (the first test launches were in the 1970s) and the fact that it's a constellation of identical satellites has made it attractive for innovative thinkers in the Pentagon, and over the years various people have come up with clever ideas for GPS--the same ideas again and again.  The most common idea is to host other payloads on them, like a comm package.  It always gets shot down, because doing that would require both a bigger satellite and is ultimately not attractive in that orbit.  But the reverse is also true--people have tried to come up with ways of making GPS smaller and cheaper and that hasn't worked either.

GPS is a highly mature system now.  It can be improved, but it is not going to be changed substantially.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #46 on: 08/27/2010 01:29 am »
Wow, kilometer accuracy.

Look, this is not a replacement for GPS.  And it's not a replacement for traditional comm.  The key question is what is it good for?

Over the horizon communication between missiles and the operator aiming them?
« Last Edit: 08/27/2010 01:29 am by A_M_Swallow »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #47 on: 08/27/2010 01:30 am »
1-If a foe sets off an EMP, or otherwise removes the majority of US satellites from usefulness, you can bet that the army would rather have a bunch little crappy cameras with them in the field, ready for quick-launch than nothing at all.  Plus at 10 kg, they would be smaller targets if it was ground based ASAT.  If the satellites are taken out/blinded by other little enemy satellites (rumoured to exist), then you might be able to have more cameras to launch than they have of little predator satellites.   

2-It also could be used to test technologies for small hypersonic ground-ground or ground-air missiles (scram/ram).


1-If a foe "removes the majority of US satellites from usefulness," then we won't need an army.  Any foe capable of doing this would have to be pretty damned capable.  After all, the US military currently has over 100 operational satellites in orbit.  That's a lot of stuff to take out.

As for EMP?  An EMP is a nuke.  If a foe uses a nuke, do you think we are going to need that army?  Do you think that a foe would use the nuke for an EMP and then not nuke the army?  (Do you think a foe would waste a nuke on an EMP unless they had a lot of them?)

And note that although the individual satellites might be simpler, if you put a whole bunch of them into space, you've created a complex constellation that has to be controlled and used effectively.  How do you do that against a foe that has an EMP?

2-I assume you are referring to the rocket here?  There are other ways to test such missiles.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #48 on: 08/27/2010 01:35 am »
  I believe that this is where the Falcon 1 entered the picture, with an original launch cost of around $5 million apiece.  (Anybody know what the list price is for a Falcon 1 now?)

Falcon 1 is a lot bigger/less transportable.  It costs $10.9 million for 1010 kg.  This other system is talking about ~10 kg.  One needs liquid oxygen, the other just needs ethane and nitrous oxide.  Far different uses/mobility levels.

You've missed my point here.  I was not trying to compare Falcon 1 to this other system.  I was pointing out that ORS, and Falcon 1, were touted as wonder systems that would do many of the same things that people here are saying that this new technology will do.  And they did not do that.  Falcon 1 did not achieve its cost goals. 

My point is that if you're going to try and predict what will happen here, then the ORS experience is a good guide--it promised a lot, did not deliver, and now is either in a state of limbo, or even decline (when measured against the original promise).

I'm not opposed to small satellites.  But small inevitably means less capable.  You have to ask if those lower capabilities are still worth the cost.  ORS has been going for almost a decade now and still has not demonstrated that to such an extent that they've convinced a lot of people.  You can manufacture a better dog food, but the proof is if the dogs come running to eat it.

Offline go2mars

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #49 on: 08/27/2010 03:29 am »
If the satellites are taken out/blinded by other little enemy satellites (rumoured to exist), then you might be able to have more cameras to launch than they have of little predator satellites.   

1-If a foe "removes the majority of US satellites from usefulness," then we won't need an army.  Any foe capable of doing this would have to be pretty damned capable.  After all, the US military currently has over 100 operational satellites in orbit.  That's a lot of stuff to take out.

As for EMP?  An EMP is a nuke.  If a foe uses a nuke, do you think we are going to need that army?  Do you think that a foe would use the nuke for an EMP and then not nuke the army?  (Do you think a foe would waste a nuke on an EMP unless they had a lot of them?)

And note that although the individual satellites might be simpler, if you put a whole bunch of them into space, you've created a complex constellation that has to be controlled and used effectively.  How do you do that against a foe that has an EMP?

I think an EMP (nuke) is less likely than predatory satellites or ground-based ASAT for 2 reasons: 
1 The aggressor's satellites would also be taken out if EMP were used.
2 Really bad PR.  Suddenly they have zero allies.

But even if someone did a space EMP, that certainly doesn't mean that they would necessarily use one on the earth's surface.   The threat of retaliation in kind goes way up with action that direct.
« Last Edit: 08/27/2010 03:30 am by go2mars »

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #50 on: 08/27/2010 04:50 am »
This can't replace comsats and GPS spacecraft

It's worth repeating (I'm sure Jim knows this, so I'm repeating this for everybody else): GPS is the size it is because they couldn't make it any smaller.  They've tried.  The equipment, the altitude and power requirements, all drive it to the size that it's at.
...
I totally accept that, BTW. There may be other ways you could design a GNSS that would allow you to build it differently, but it would mean (if in LEO instead of MEO) many more satellites (over a couple hundred?) needed for continuous coverage (but would allow lower power... perhaps one hundredth or even less... and thus be smaller per satellite), or perhaps a larger receiver (receivers nowadays are built into just about any new cellphone you can buy, it seems). EDIT: Also, the constellation wouldn't need a very long lifetime. A year would be plenty of time, as opposed to the dozen years for current GNSS satellites.

GPS can be used for incredibly precise measurements right now... down to centimeters or even millimeters for surveying. This is done by having a stable frequency source (atomic clock) and careful elimination of the various different kinds of errors. All of this is not simple. EDIT:However, decently accurate atomic clocks have (in the last less than ten years) become incredibly small (<10 mm^3) and low-power (75mW) : http://tf.nist.gov/ofm/smallclock/Welcome.html
EDIT: And I should mention, GPS satellites tend to have multiple atomic clocks in each satellite, so the mass of the clocks is significant.


However, one wonders whether a simpler system might feasibly give a usable lock in location to within a distance of a few hundred meters (or less) to allow vehicles to still be able to navigate in case of problems with the GPS constellation. Same with very-low data-rate communications. The idea wouldn't be to replace GPS or military comm-sats, but to allow units in the field to still be functional in case the GPS system is taken down, even at a reduced capacity. If the enemy knows he can't take down the ability to navigate or communicate globally with a surprise ASAT attack, the enemy will be less likely to develop such a capability. Otherwise, the space assets are a ripe target in any large conflict between two space-capable powers, especially if one side is far more dependent on space assets than the other.

That said, I have no idea if they are planning to use the MNMS for something like that or not.
« Last Edit: 08/27/2010 05:54 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline mlorrey

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #51 on: 08/27/2010 05:38 pm »
  I believe that this is where the Falcon 1 entered the picture, with an original launch cost of around $5 million apiece.  (Anybody know what the list price is for a Falcon 1 now?)

Falcon 1 is a lot bigger/less transportable.  It costs $10.9 million for 1010 kg.  This other system is talking about ~10 kg.  One needs liquid oxygen, the other just needs ethane and nitrous oxide.  Far different uses/mobility levels.

You've missed my point here.  I was not trying to compare Falcon 1 to this other system.  I was pointing out that ORS, and Falcon 1, were touted as wonder systems that would do many of the same things that people here are saying that this new technology will do.  And they did not do that.  Falcon 1 did not achieve its cost goals. 

My point is that if you're going to try and predict what will happen here, then the ORS experience is a good guide--it promised a lot, did not deliver, and now is either in a state of limbo, or even decline (when measured against the original promise).

I'm not opposed to small satellites.  But small inevitably means less capable.  You have to ask if those lower capabilities are still worth the cost.  ORS has been going for almost a decade now and still has not demonstrated that to such an extent that they've convinced a lot of people.  You can manufacture a better dog food, but the proof is if the dogs come running to eat it.

Well, with constantly shrinking technology, really the primary limitations on satellite capability is power, since you need x square meters of solar cells to generate power for y watts of radio transmissions, or x square meters of optical collection for y meters of ground resolution (or the equivalent for radar), or both. Both of these have rather strict diminishing returns curves on technological advances.

Ultimately, you are going to hit a limit with your 10kg package where the entire satellite is a big fold-out sheet with a phased array radar on one side, multiband photovoltaic cells on the other, and all your processing circuitry sandwiched in between. Even with this completely optimised design, you are going to be limited to 1-3 kw of power per sat. You would need a flock of 10-20 of these operating as a radar interferometer to be at all useful, and their low mass to cross sectional area means they will have serious stationkeeping issues in any orbit below ~600 miles.
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Offline Blackstar

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #52 on: 09/12/2010 10:11 pm »
http://blog.al.com/huntsville-times-business/2010/09/huntsville_company_working_to.html

Huntsville company working to get Army satellites into orbit 'on the cheap'

Published: Sunday, September 12, 2010, 6:00 AM
Kenneth Kesner, The Huntsville Times

Their goal was to put a small satellite into orbit, take the ultimate high ground and forever change the ways we think about Earth and space.

It's happening again.

Engineers at Dynetics are working with the Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Forces Strategic Command, leading a team to create a rocket system that can very quickly and very cheaply place "nanosatellites" into orbit.

Tim Pickens, chief propulsion engineer at Dynetics, said a relatively low launch cost - about $1 million - is the revolutionary idea driving the project, "not technology, not high performance. Could it be done on the cheap? Those were the considerations."

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #53 on: 09/12/2010 10:59 pm »
Why would the Army be in charge of this system?  I thought the USAF was in charge of SLV's and ballistic missiles.  The army currently is only tasked with air defense (ie Patriots) and attack munitions (MLRS)

Offline simonbp

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #54 on: 09/12/2010 11:45 pm »
Why would the Army be in charge of this system?  I thought the USAF was in charge of SLV's and ballistic missiles.  The army currently is only tasked with air defense (ie Patriots) and attack munitions (MLRS)

I think it's the same loophole that lets them run recon UAVs...

Offline bad_astra

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #55 on: 09/15/2010 04:56 pm »
I didn't know Tim Pickens was involved. Excellent.
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Online kevin-rf

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Re: US Army MNMS Nanomissle Launch System
« Reply #56 on: 09/15/2010 06:02 pm »
Apparently he bought the remains of the DC-X ... http://realrocketman.tripod.com/uncletim.htm

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