Author Topic: When its all said and done.....  (Read 7065 times)

Offline JohnF

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When its all said and done.....
« on: 07/04/2010 01:31 PM »
My opinion, when its all said and done about an HLV, seems a version of Jupiter/Direct/Ares V will be whats chosen, based on what Sen. Nelson has said, I'm betting he and Obama have worked this out to where they can claim  everybody is happy -One more Shuttle flight in 2012, commercial for cargo first and maybe crew to ISS (If they can get certified), sped up HLV development using Shuttle Ares & Constellation workforce using Orion for BEO, which says in line SD HLV using 5 seg solids to wherever NASA would like to send astronauts-Moon/Asteroid/Mars, starting test flights in 2014, this way they will claim the gap was shrunk to 2 yrs all due to bipartisan working together, see isn't sausage making wonderful....again only my opinion, which isn't worth a poot.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #1 on: 07/04/2010 02:22 PM »
I agree that an SSME-powered 8.4m-diameter core with SRM boosters is the most likely compromise.  In many ways, it meets all the current political requirements of a state-funded space program.

However, as politically perfect it is, it still requires some to swallow their pride and others to allow something that they find philosophically distressing.  My big concern is that an "Ares Direct" compromise might ultimately be bogged down by continued arguments, especially from the feircest partisans of other paths.  I also suspect that funding may not be as bountiful as even CxP enjoyed.
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Offline Longhorn John

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #2 on: 07/04/2010 02:30 PM »
How is this worth a new thread?

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #3 on: 07/04/2010 02:30 PM »
I think the argument will continue until the whole HLV plan quietly dies (several years down the road): Once CST-100 on Atlas V or Dragon on F9 has sucessfully delivered the first US crew to ISS, the media will play this up to the hilt as "the USA is back in space",  people will say "NASA's back in business" and "USA! USA!". Then, ISS will be extended to 2028 (a move marketed as keeping our international partners happy) and HLV will be pushed down the line (as a post-ISS project), probably via another 5-year study on breakthroughs.

Then, it's 2028, ISS is splashed and we go back to capsule rendez-vousing with capsule in LEO. Welcome to 1966.

Offline douglas100

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #4 on: 07/04/2010 06:46 PM »
This is looking like a rehash of arguments on other threads about whether an HLV is needed at all. There is a substantial opinion out there that an HLV is not needed for crew exploration.

As far as 2028 is concerned the only prediction I would venture to make is that it will not be 1966 again.
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Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #5 on: 07/04/2010 09:26 PM »
My opinion, when its all said and done about an HLV, seems a version of Jupiter/Direct/Ares V will be whats chosen, based on what Sen. Nelson has said, I'm betting he and Obama have worked this out to where they can claim  everybody is happy -One more Shuttle flight in 2012, commercial for cargo first and maybe crew to ISS (If they can get certified), sped up HLV development using Shuttle Ares & Constellation workforce using Orion for BEO, which says in line SD HLV using 5 seg solids to wherever NASA would like to send astronauts-Moon/Asteroid/Mars, starting test flights in 2014, this way they will claim the gap was shrunk to 2 yrs all due to bipartisan working together, see isn't sausage making wonderful....again only my opinion, which isn't worth a poot.
Look like maybe a  (mandated) addition of 2 more fligths (135+136 (2012 for 136). IDK nor does anyone yet. But it would certainly be a "mandated" situation.
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Offline MP99

Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #6 on: 07/05/2010 02:36 PM »
I think the argument will continue until the whole HLV plan quietly dies (several years down the road): Once CST-100 on Atlas V or Dragon on F9 has sucessfully delivered the first US crew to ISS, the media will play this up to the hilt as "the USA is back in space",  people will say "NASA's back in business" and "USA! USA!". Then, ISS will be extended to 2028 (a move marketed as keeping our international partners happy) and HLV will be pushed down the line (as a post-ISS project), probably via another 5-year study on breakthroughs.

If NASA sticks with the LEO taxi / Orion CRV plan, I wonder whether the initial SDHLV might be a J-120 instead of J-130.

Launch an MPLM with each CRV Orion. With no LAS, and possibly a lighter Orion, that seems more of a J-120 payload.

Build J-130 & J-24x as a later Block when Orion CEV is available for exploration missions - eg Lunar flyby, etc.

cheers, Martin

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #7 on: 07/05/2010 03:55 PM »
If NASA sticks with the LEO taxi / Orion CRV plan, I wonder whether the initial SDHLV might be a J-120 instead of J-130.

I'm pretty sure that SDLV will be a cargo-only booster if the commercial crew taxi remains the primary crew launch strategy.  Mission vehicles will launch uncrewed and the crew will be sent up later.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

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Offline MP99

Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #8 on: 07/05/2010 07:30 PM »
If NASA sticks with the LEO taxi / Orion CRV plan, I wonder whether the initial SDHLV might be a J-120 instead of J-130.

I'm pretty sure that SDLV will be a cargo-only booster if the commercial crew taxi remains the primary crew launch strategy.  Mission vehicles will launch uncrewed and the crew will be sent up later.

If Orion block 0 remains CRV-only (ie "commercial crew taxi remains the primary only crew launch strategy"), then I could see the block I SDHLV being cargo-only. Implied by my post, but I should have stated it explicitly.

It makes a lot of sense (per DIRECT) to HR a later block of the SDHLV once Orion becomes CEV (ie can launch with a crew) and is used for exploration missions.

cheers, Martin

Offline John Duncan

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #9 on: 07/06/2010 01:25 PM »
The future is much too murky to make out any path right now.
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Offline douglas100

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #10 on: 07/06/2010 01:32 PM »
Exactly.
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Offline spacenut

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #11 on: 07/07/2010 03:04 PM »
We need leadership with vision.  I don't see any in the near future.  Leadership by committee is what we have now.  A camel is a horse designed by committee.  No one is in charge of anything who has executive experience right now.  From the white house on down.  Leadership will supply a vision and choose a path to follow.  This has not been done. 
« Last Edit: 07/07/2010 03:49 PM by spacenut »

Offline Downix

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #12 on: 07/07/2010 04:16 PM »
We need leadership with vision.  I don't see any in the near future.  Leadership by committee is what we have now.  A camel is a horse designed by committee.  No one is in charge of anything who has executive experience right now.  From the white house on down.  Leadership will supply a vision and choose a path to follow.  This has not been done. 
You're pushing a minority viewpoint which was proven incorrect.  Instead of trying to re-fight old fights, focus on the today, the here and now, and figure out a solution instead.

Did you realize that NASA is now organizing in-orbit fuel depot demonstration, with missions to the Moon and Mars utilizing them? 

Did you realize that there is more crew access potential under the new plan?

Yes, I don't think the plan is a great one, but judging it on its merits, it's not gloom and doom by a long shot.  Instead, I see a much more interesting program.
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Offline luke strawwalker

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #13 on: 07/08/2010 04:33 AM »
We need leadership with vision.  I don't see any in the near future.  Leadership by committee is what we have now.  A camel is a horse designed by committee.  No one is in charge of anything who has executive experience right now.  From the white house on down.  Leadership will supply a vision and choose a path to follow.  This has not been done. 
You're pushing a minority viewpoint which was proven incorrect.  Instead of trying to re-fight old fights, focus on the today, the here and now, and figure out a solution instead.

Did you realize that NASA is now organizing in-orbit fuel depot demonstration, with missions to the Moon and Mars utilizing them? 

Did you realize that there is more crew access potential under the new plan?

Yes, I don't think the plan is a great one, but judging it on its merits, it's not gloom and doom by a long shot.  Instead, I see a much more interesting program.

Reason to hope, anyway...

Of course it's all subject to the whims of the political (funding) winds over the coming years...

There always seems to be no shortage of terrific proposals and plans, but few actually end up implemented, and fewer still end up turning out as they were intended when proposed. 

That's what history teaches, anyway... :)  OL JR :)
NO plan IS the plan...

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Offline alexw

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #14 on: 07/08/2010 05:04 AM »
We need leadership with vision.  I don't see any in the near future.  Leadership by committee is what we have now.  A camel is a horse designed by committee.  No one is in charge of anything who has executive experience right now.  From the white house on down.  Leadership will supply a vision and choose a path to follow.  This has not been done. 
   Why is "leadership" a panacea? Under Griffin, NASA had distinct leadership, from a leader with executive experience, who did not (purportedly) lead by committee, who was absolutely in charge, who supplied a vision, who chose a path to follow, and it was enforced on down. 
    How'd that work out?
    -Alex

Offline edkyle99

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #15 on: 07/08/2010 05:50 AM »
We need leadership with vision.  I don't see any in the near future.  Leadership by committee is what we have now.  A camel is a horse designed by committee.  No one is in charge of anything who has executive experience right now.  From the white house on down.  Leadership will supply a vision and choose a path to follow.  This has not been done. 
   Why is "leadership" a panacea? Under Griffin, NASA had distinct leadership, from a leader with executive experience, who did not (purportedly) lead by committee, who was absolutely in charge, who supplied a vision, who chose a path to follow, and it was enforced on down. 
    How'd that work out?
    -Alex
Under Griffin, NASA and its contractors were employed developing new rocket motors, rocket engines, launch vehicles, spacecraft, spacecraft escape and recovery systems, test stands, launch pads, factories, manufacturing processes, and ground support infrastructure.

Under Bolden/Garver/Obama, NASA and its contractors are laying off thousands and shutting down all of the above.  The Agency seems to have been directed to rapidly form itself into a decaying representation of U.S. national decline. 

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 07/08/2010 05:52 AM by edkyle99 »

Offline douglas100

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #16 on: 07/08/2010 07:00 AM »
Quote
Under Griffin, NASA and its contractors were employed developing new rocket motors, rocket engines, launch vehicles, spacecraft, spacecraft escape and recovery systems, test stands, launch pads, factories, manufacturing processes, and ground support infrastructure.

True. But they were trying to redo Apollo which was never intended as a means to open the Solar System to manned exploration. Constellation was never going to be viable long term (just my humble opinion, with hindsight.)
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Offline kkattula

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #17 on: 07/08/2010 10:13 AM »
... more is said than done.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #18 on: 07/08/2010 10:25 AM »
... more is said than done.

And that has always been my concern.

My worry is that these 'flagship demos' of new technologies like propellent transfer, NEP and so on will end up being defunded into paper studies.  Thus, in 2015, NASA will end up having to select a completely conventional HLV using a completely conventional chemical-powered EDS with a compltely conventional expendable mission vehicle.  Five years will have been lost, momentum will have been lost and NASA's budget may have ended up being permanently cut all for no tangible return.

That is why, although I'm a DIRECT fan, I would just as gladly accept an EELV and commercial-centric HSF plan so long as there is an immediate start rather than waiting until 2015 or afterwards.  Modify Orion for Atlas-VH now.  Issue an HLV requirement now.  Whichever path chosen, the alternative is a fatal loss of momentum, political support and, very likely, funding.
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Offline kkattula

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Re: When its all said and done.....
« Reply #19 on: 07/08/2010 10:29 AM »
... more is said than done.

And that has always been my concern.
...

Actually, I was taking a swipe at all the pontificating we do here on the forum. :)

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