SpaceX COTS Demo 1 Updates

[Lee Jay]

A small bit of math tells me that the probability of an out-of-control Dragon that makes it to the ground intact hitting one of the people on this planet is about 1 in 4000.  And that's if everyone is outside unprotected by any shelter.

[hop]

Would the shuttle come down in a stable, heat shield first configuration if it went out of control?

Seems unlikely, but I'm not sure an SSME powerhead would put much less of a dent in your day than an intact Dragon...

[boaorm]

The list of arguments given by Spacex to FAA when asking for a waiver was (argument #1 kind of backs up Ms. Shotwells hope of an eventual break-up of the capsule n case of a non-controlled reentry:)

(as linked here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22769.msg666957#msg666957 )

1. Dragon's thermal protection system has been modified so that if it enters facing down it will burn and demise.

2. Dragon can keep orbiting in order to increase the probability of initiating a safe reentry.

3. Dragon will automatically vent its propellants if it is not able to reenter as planned. Venting occurs autonomously, but SpaceX has the ability to issue a back-up command from the ground.

4. In the case of a failed or degraded deorbit burn, Dragon automatically drains propellants and subsequently deploys its parachutes.

5. A ground command received through one of three receivers and through multiple RF links, via TDRSS and multiple ground stations, can command the venting of any remaining fuel and the draining of battery power to reduce the possibility of explosion or toxic fumes when Dragon lands.

6. Dragon has the ability to autonomously guide itself to a predetermined site located more than 780 km from the coastline.

7. Dragon has the ability to monitor its safety-critical systems in real-time.

8. Dragon has over 100% margin on both power and propellant budgets.

9. Dragon has a space-grade Inertial Measurement Unit and space-grade flight computer, both of which have extensive flight heritage including use on the International Space Station.

10. Dragon has redundant drogue parachutes and dual redundant main parachutes.

11. The vehicle's thrusters are plumbed such that Dragon can deorbit and reenter with the loss of any two entire propulsion modules.

12. The vehicle has backup capabilities within all of its major subsystems.

[Robotbeat]

The list of arguments given by Spacex to FAA when asking for a waiver was (argument #1 kind of backs up Ms. Shotwells hope of an eventual break-up of the capsule n case of a non-controlled reentry:)

(as linked here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22769.msg666957#msg666957 )
...

Thank you very much!

6. Dragon has the ability to autonomously guide itself to a predetermined site located more than 780 km from the coastline.
...

That's an interesting one. So, under what circumstance would Dragon autonomously land in the ocean?

[ugordan]

Press kit:

[tobi453]

Oh, look at the Isp Values! Second stage engine only 336s!!!

[Swatch]

A little apples and oranges.  SpaceX does these things late in the flow.

Quite. I can understand reviewing just the static fire data this late in the game, but the vehicle has been sitting integrated for what - months?

http://twitpic.com/3dk7i2

I would think it would be normal to give everything one last glance as you're closing everything up.  Also, they did static fire recently.

[Robotbeat]

Oh, look at the Isp Values! Second stage engine only 336s!!!

That's compared to 342s for the predicted Isp. Not terribly different, IMHO... Overly-optimistic predicted performance for a rocket engine seems to be par for the course. You should never trust a quoted Isp at least until that engine has seen a mission or two.

In the case of Merlin Vacuum, it hadn't even been test-fired in a vacuum before Falcon 9 first launched.

[joshcryer]

SpaceX answering questions: http://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/posts/173436672676788

Nothing we haven't already seen in this thread, just thought it was noteworthy.

[ugordan]

SpaceX answering questions: http://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/posts/173436672676788

Nothing we haven't already seen in this thread, just thought it was noteworthy.

Including one individual who's not overly interested in the launch, rather she wants to know if Eric will come back home from sea (presumably crewing one of the recovery vessels) for her birthday.

You gotta love Facebook. Or not.

[Retired Downrange]

The Merlin vacuum expansion nozzle used on the second stage measures nine feet tall.

There is a photo of this nozzle on page ten of the press kit.

[joshcryer]

Including one individual who's not overly interested in the launch, rather she wants to know if Eric will come back home from sea (presumably crewing one of the recovery vessels) for her birthday.

You gotta love Facebook. Or not.

Eh, grad student, I'll give her a pass. I just have been observing that the FB updates are more frequent than the Twitter updates. Maybe because the person doing them is using it as an excuse to check FB, who cares.

If you're really wanting to keep up, keep the SpaceX FB page open and the SpaceXer Twitter feed open (plus SpaceXMissions), you'll see them update in real time. It's really fun stuff.

[2552]

http://twitter.com/#!/NASAKennedy

SpaceX now says the Falcon 9 rocket launch for NASA's COTS program is no earlier than Wednesday. Earlier it was estimated to be Thursday.

[Robotbeat]

http://twitter.com/#!/NASAKennedy

SpaceX now says the Falcon 9 rocket launch for NASA's COTS program is no earlier than Wednesday. Earlier it was estimated to be Thursday.

On Facebook, SpaceX still says Thursday:
"Now targeting launch no earlier than this Thursday, Dec. 9. Taking some time to look at 2nd stage nozzle, will keep you posted on schedule as able--thanks for the support!"
http://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/posts/173436672676788
3 hours ago

[Robotbeat]

http://twitter.com/#!/NASAKennedy

SpaceX now says the Falcon 9 rocket launch for NASA's COTS program is no earlier than Wednesday. Earlier it was estimated to be Thursday.

On Facebook, SpaceX still says Thursday:
"Now targeting launch no earlier than this Thursday, Dec. 9. Taking some time to look at 2nd stage nozzle, will keep you posted on schedule as able--thanks for the support!"
http://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/posts/173436672676788
3 hours ago

More recently on Facebook (in response to that post http://www.facebook.com/SpaceX/posts/173436672676788 ):

‎@Ben, thanks for the help @Muttley, Ben is correct, we take closeout photos as part of our final review process and the engineers want to take a look at the 2nd stage nozzle. @Gregg, you are also correct, NASA has said as early as Wednesday, but we need more details before we can really make a call. @Lars, not sure how long that takes or if its necessary here, but we'll keep you updated on the schedule as we hear--thansk everyone!
about an hour ago ·

And also, it looks like they're inspecting the nozzle while the rocket is still raised:
http://twitpic.com/3dk7i2

[joshcryer]

I think it's still too early to say whether or not they can get it flown on Wednesday, I hope so, but I'm not holding my breath.

[rdale]

I think it's still too early to say whether or not they can get it flown on Wednesday

Josh - how is the analysis going so far? Is there a particular area you think could be the cause of a NET Thursday versus Wednesday?

[KSC Engineer]

Nice looking patch.   Does anyone know the derivation of the Dragon symbol and logo?

Um . . . what? It's a dragon. 

Right above the word SpaceX on their patch is a dragon which is their nomenclature and name for their spacecraft.   I was wondering if anyone knew the derivation of the dragon name, why they selected that name etc?  Just curious.

[MP99]

Press kit:

The result is the most advanced heat shield ever to fly, it can potentially be used hundreds of times for Earth orbit reentry with only minor degradation each time (like an extreme version of a Formula 1 car's carbon brakepads) and can even withstand the much higher heat of a moon or Mars velocity reentry.

"potentially be used hundreds of times for Earth orbit reentry" - I had not realised that!

cheers, Martin

[corrodedNut]

Right above the word SpaceX on their patch is a dragon which is their nomenclature and name for their spacecraft.   I was wondering if anyone knew the derivation of the dragon name, why they selected that name etc?  Just curious.

Really, I'm not kidding.