SpaceX COTS Demo 1 Updates

[Lars_J]

they need to launch whenever they can to maximise their chances of success.

SpaceX needs to launch COTS Demo 1 when the success of that flight will maximize the likelihood of SpaceX building a successful business.

To see this, look at the extremes:  would it be prudent for SpaceX to slip the flight three weeks if doing so substantially increased the probability of a successful flight?  Sure.

Three months, though?  Maybe.  But what about three years?  Surely you agree that in what is ultimately a business decision, other factors come into play eventually?

Of course those factors come into play. But to launch just to beat another LV's scheduled launch - THAT is your suggestion that most of us reacted to.

[kkattula]

...
Three months, though?  Maybe.  But what about three years?  Surely you agree that in what is ultimately a business decision, other factors come into play eventually?

Right now, I think they could delay up to 6 months without significant issues. But they'd need the flight to be successful and do Demo 2 in the second half of next year.  However, the optimum would be a flight in next month or so.

I don't think the FAA would have signed off on Dragon if it wasn't ready, so I expect right now they're working through any remaining 'nits' and practicing procedures, doing simulations, etc. 

Unless something critical shows up, I reckon hotfire this week and launch in two, is highly likely.

[hop]

I don't think the FAA would have signed off on Dragon if it wasn't ready,

AFAIK the FAA only signs off on F9/Dragon having acceptably low odds of harming uninvolved bystanders and their property. Mission success is not their concern.

[ugordan]

SFN reports a change in the launch window, it's now 1403-1722 GMT. Still remains at Dec 7.

[butters]

SFN reports a change in the launch window, it's now 1403-1722 GMT. Still remains at Dec 7.

Well, that could be interpreted as subtly good news wrt the launch date. If they're fine tuning their launch window, then maybe they're done slipping their launch date?

I don't remember for sure what the window used to be, but I think I remember the window opening at around 8:30 EST. Did they just shift it roughly 30 minutes later to wait for better sunlight in the late fall?

[iamlucky13]

I don't think the FAA would have signed off on Dragon if it wasn't ready,

AFAIK the FAA only signs off on F9/Dragon having acceptably low odds of harming uninvolved bystanders and their property. Mission success is not their concern.

Right. Of course there is the possibility of a Dragon malfunction affecting that safety, but that's only a handful of the myriad possible failures that can occur.

Well, that could be interpreted as subtly good news wrt the launch date. If they're fine tuning their launch window, then maybe they're done slipping their launch date?

With 8 days to go, they're making an adjustment to their plans that is not a slip.

At face value, that is a small positive sign. If they were seriously thinking about a slip, there's less reason to bother changing the registered launch window.

Still, it doesn't by any means preclude a slip, either.

[Rocket Guy]

As of today they are planning the test fire Friday and launch on Tuesday.

[Comga]

By your matter-of-fact wording I am assuming that this is real information, not speculation or opinion.   It is a pleasure to read it.  Thank you.

Can I also assume that if you knew a scheduled time for the test fire that you would have included it?

[butters]

As of today they are planning the test fire Friday and launch on Tuesday.

Fabulous news!!

I suppose that time frame indicates that they're loading Dragon propellants before the static fire. They'll probably roll it back into the hangar between the static fire and the launch attempt, though.

So I guess they finally ironed out their hyper loading and finished all their sim work for the third time and now it's time to light the candle. They haven't rushed into this at all, so I like their chances.

Can somebody well-placed please let us know when the stack is vertical?

[SpacexULA]

I know SpaceX hanger is usually a "t-shirt" environment.  while the Dragon is loaded and horizontal, will the need to wear any safety equipment while in the hanger with the Falcon?

[Jim]

I know SpaceX hanger is usually a "t-shirt" environment.  while the Dragon is loaded and horizontal, will the need to wear any safety equipment while in the hanger with the Falcon?

There is no need to wear safety equipment to be around a spacecraft with hypergols loaded on board (this is true at KSC, CCAFS, and even Astrotech).  But there needs to be toxic vapor detectors and ELSA's in  the facilities and sniff checks done periodically.

[sdsds]

to launch just to beat another LV's scheduled launch

Hmm, I take your point.  It isn't a race, and I did not suggest they should "launch just to beat" STS-133.  But with Shuttle not launching there is an open window of opportunity right now.  Sure, there are other windows, but a success during the one that follows STS-133 would not be as big a win.

The stakes they are gambling are frighteningly high.  Forget FY2011.  When do you think the Obama administration will finalize the FY2012 budget proposal they will deliver to Congress on Feb 1, 2011?  Do you think a COTS success before that date could effect the contents of that proposal?

[MP99]

to launch just to beat another LV's scheduled launch

Hmm, I take your point.  It isn't a race, and I did not suggest they should "launch just to beat" STS-133.

OK, I did take that as implied by your post. I agree that a delay of many months would cause concern as to their readiness (eg minor ammunition for anti-Commercial elements in Congress).

But with Shuttle not launching there is an open window of opportunity right now.  Sure, there are other windows, but a success during the one that follows STS-133 would not be as big a win.

The stakes they are gambling are frighteningly high.  Forget FY2011.  When do you think the Obama administration will finalize the FY2012 budget proposal they will deliver to Congress on Feb 1, 2011?  Do you think a COTS success before that date could effect the contents of that proposal?

I would be much more worried that a rushed failure before the FY11 appropriations process is complete would be major ammunition for Congress to bias the budget away from Commercial Crew.

cheers, Martin

PS I'm not suggesting that they are rushing.

[ugordan]

Can somebody well-placed please let us know when the stack is vertical?

Based  on previous experience, I'd assume the stack will go vertical Thursday for a static fire on Friday.

[jabe]

an Aviation week article.
Hope we start hearing about activity at the cape soon....
jb

[ELinder]

I certainly hope they say when in the launch window they're aiming for once they get closer. The window opens just after the KSC Visitor Center opens, but the buses to the Saturn V building don't start until 10am. That's where I watched the first Falcon launch, and it's a great place to watch from.

Erich

[iamlucky13]

It's a good bet they'll aim for the start of the launch window in order to provide time to stop or restart the countdown in case there are complications.

However, it's also a good bet they'll announce the launch time before you need to decide whether to try to get to the Saturn V Center or not.

[jabe]

not sure how new this is..
http://www.nasa.gov/offices/c3po/home/cots_project.html

The first SpaceX Falcon 9 demonstration launch for NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services program is targeted for liftoff on Tuesday, Dec. 7. Liftoff will occur from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The launch window extends from 9:03 a.m. to 12:22 p.m. EST. If necessary, launch opportunities also are available on Dec. 8 and Dec. 9 with the same window.

and this..time stamp of today on it..
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2010/nov/HQ_M10-168_SpaceX_Launch.html

nice little tidbit....

Coverage will include live streaming and text updates of the final five minutes of the countdown. On-demand streaming video, podcast and photos of the launch will be available shortly after liftoff. To access these features, go to NASA’s COTS website at:

[yg1968]

NASA's coverage will start 5 minutes before liftoff. Hopefully, Spacex's own coverage will start before that time.

[notsorandom]

Does anyone know what kind of coverage will be provided throughout the flight? The Aviation Week article said they were looking at reentry after four orbits. If thats the plan it would be nice to see live real time coverage of the various tests and then reentry. Certainly would made an interesting afternoon of watching.