Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 : Formosat-5 : SLC-4E Vandenberg : Aug 24, 2017 : DISCUSSION  (Read 169598 times)

Online Joffan

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The Jefferies International launch cost analysis (discussed here) implies that with Stage 1 re-use, the Formosat launch at $23m didn't actually lose money (except in the sense of reduced profit margin), provided SpaceX allow themselves to capitalize the first stage construction cost and recover over 2-3 launches.
« Last Edit: 08/26/2017 02:27 PM by Joffan »
When I say "Jump!", you say "To which orbital inclination?"

Offline titusou

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Here is where that announcement is discussed in the Formosat-5 Discussion thread: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=21984.msg1649492#msg1649492

Regarding the Wired article, it didn't strike me as biased either.  It did say, "SpaceX will pay 1.25 percent of the launch costs back to them for every month that Formosat-5 is delayed, according to the mission’s contract."  I wonder what point that started counting from.

~Kirk

NSPO said (in July) it's still to-be-determined as SpaceX and NSPO was define deadline differently.

IIRC, there was a limit on the penalty amount.

I been told by NSPO it's capped at 10%.


Titus

Offline smoliarm

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It looks like with this launch SpaceX passed another milestone - their year-to-date revenue now is > $1 B.

Of course, the price numbers in the attached table are approximate, and the total estimate about ±10% inaccurate.
However, even if they did not pass this $1 B threshold, they are very close :)
« Last Edit: 08/26/2017 06:01 PM by smoliarm »

Online AncientU

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Should add in all the milestone payments for commercial crew.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline edkyle99

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Even if SpaceX will have no more successful launches this year, they launched more than Arianespace this year: Ariane only has 11 launches (8 done, 3 yet to perform).

2017 versus the main competition launchers: Ariane 5(4) + Atlas V(4) + Delta IV(1) + Proton(2) < Falcon 9(12)

Note:
Landed Boosters: Ariane 5(0) + Atlas V(0) + Delta IV(0) + Proton(0) < Falcon 9(9)
Fair to point out that as of today (August 26, 2017) Ariane 5 has boosted 37.918 tonnes to GTO during 2017 while Falcon 9 has only lifted 27.398 tonnes to GTO. 

Most of Falcon 9's work this year has been to LEO, and most of that for governments.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline smoliarm

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Should add in all the milestone payments for commercial crew.
- I'd love to, I just do not know where to take the numbers.
With previous contract, CCiCap, there was detailed schedule with all milestones and their $ values. But I did not see anything similar for CCtCap.

Offline gongora

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Even if SpaceX will have no more successful launches this year, they launched more than Arianespace this year: Ariane only has 11 launches (8 done, 3 yet to perform).

2017 versus the main competition launchers: Ariane 5(4) + Atlas V(4) + Delta IV(1) + Proton(2) < Falcon 9(12)

Note:
Landed Boosters: Ariane 5(0) + Atlas V(0) + Delta IV(0) + Proton(0) < Falcon 9(9)
Fair to point out that as of today (August 26, 2017) Ariane 5 has boosted 37.918 tonnes to GTO during 2017 while Falcon 9 has only lifted 27.398 tonnes to GTO. 

Most of Falcon 9's work this year has been to LEO, and most of that for governments.

 - Ed Kyle

Ignoring FH Demo for the moment and assuming they maybe slip PAZ to next year, there are 21 flights we might expect SpaceX to perform this year.  Of those there are 10 GTO, basically very similar to 5 flights of Ariane 5 (6 payloads are > 5mT, 4 under).  I wouldn't be shocked if one or two of those slipped into next year, but hopefully they'll manage to get them launched in 2017.  For the other flights you've got 4x CRS, 4x Iridium, 2x NSS to LEO, and Formosat-5.

Arianespace seems to have 6x Ariane 5 GTO flights, plus they launched a couple of the smaller ones on Soyuz, so for the year Arianespace should easily stay ahead of SpaceX for GTO payloads.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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SpaceX's great year continues, looking good to have the most launches of any launch provider globally this year.

China expects about 30 launches.

Quote
Q:  How many launches are you planning for this year?

A:  Around 30; China has a lot of domestic launch needs. For example, the Beidou navigation constellation is still at the deployment stage to become a global system by 2020. Also, there are some Chinese domestic programs for Earth observation, weather satellites, and also human exploration and deep space exploration programs. All these areas are requiring a significant number of launches. Last year we were on par with the U.S. for 22 launches. I think this year we might be No. 1 in terms of launches. (Editor’s note: this interview was conducted before the July 2 failure of China’s Long March 5 rocket.)

http://spacenews.com/back-to-back-commercial-satellite-wins-leave-china-great-wall-hungry-for-more/
Please note, I've copy/pasted this thread-within-thread discussion, starting with the post quoted above, and continued it in the Chinese launch schedule thread, starting here.

It seems more relevant there.
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Online Lars-J

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It looks like with this launch SpaceX passed another milestone - their year-to-date revenue now is > $1 B.

Of course, the price numbers in the attached table are approximate, and the total estimate about ±10% inaccurate.
However, even if they did not pass this $1 B threshold, they are very close :)

Yes but there are usually milestone payments for all contracts, even commercial. So SpaceX already received some of the funds for launches this before the year started.
« Last Edit: 08/26/2017 10:53 PM by Lars-J »

Offline gongora

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It looks like with this launch SpaceX passed another milestone - their year-to-date revenue now is > $1 B.

Of course, the price numbers in the attached table are approximate, and the total estimate about ±10% inaccurate.
However, even if they did not pass this $1 B threshold, they are very close :)

Yes but there are usually milestone payments for all contracts, even commercial. So SpaceX already received some of the funds for launches this before the year started.

We'll never figure out payment schedules.  Maybe we can just say their launches for the year have generated around $1B of revenue so far and not get hung up on when the money actually arrived  :)

Offline bsegal

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Any word yet on fairing recovery attempt?

Offline Lar

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Quote
Falcon 9 boost stage on droneship Just Read the Instructions

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/900947535358967808

Does it look to folks like this was a square on landing (not much tilt, not much difference in crush zone crushing)?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Kabloona

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Quote
Falcon 9 boost stage on droneship Just Read the Instructions

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/900947535358967808

Does it look to folks like this was a square on landing (not much tilt, not much difference in crush zone crushing)?

The stage is 90 degrees vertical with respect to sea horizon in the pic, to the accuracy of an eyeball and the corner of an index card, so I'd call it square. Also, the vertical velocity and tilt numbers Elon quoted for touchdown seem quite low. Apparently he's bragging, with good reason.

Offline woods170

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Quote
Falcon 9 boost stage on droneship Just Read the Instructions

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/900947535358967808

Does it look to folks like this was a square on landing (not much tilt, not much difference in crush zone crushing)?

The stage is 90 degrees vertical with respect to sea horizon in the pic, to the accuracy of an eyeball and the corner of an index card, so I'd call it square. Also, the vertical velocity and tilt numbers Elon quoted for touchdown seem quite low. Apparently he's bragging, with good reason.
No bragging. This is just the first round in prepping all of us for a surprise.

Offline jpo234

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Should add in all the milestone payments for commercial crew.

And the Fan shop...

Online Barrie

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No bragging. This is just the first round in prepping all of us for a surprise.

Is this your judgement, or do you know something?   ???

Online matthewkantar

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No bragging. This is just the first round in prepping all of us for a surprise.

Is this your judgement, or do you know something?   ???

In my dreams, the roomba thingy on the ASDS will start catching legless F-9 first stages soon.

Matthew

Online wannamoonbase

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No bragging. This is just the first round in prepping all of us for a surprise.

Is this your judgement, or do you know something?   ???

In my dreams, the roomba thingy on the ASDS will start catching legless F-9 first stages soon.

Matthew

I thought Roomba was just securing them after landing.

However, if it was an active device catching them from underneath that would be the most fantastical technology to ever watch do it's magic!  Could save a lot of weight too.

At sea would be much harder than land, however, they would likely need to demonstrate it safely 'not at LZ-1' before they got a license to do it on land.
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

Offline guckyfan

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At sea would be much harder than land, however, they would likely need to demonstrate it safely 'not at LZ-1' before they got a license to do it on land.

Nobody cares about a landing stage destroyed on LZ-1. As long as it hits the concrete circle there is no risk.

Online wannamoonbase

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At sea would be much harder than land, however, they would likely need to demonstrate it safely 'not at LZ-1' before they got a license to do it on land.

Nobody cares about a landing stage destroyed on LZ-1. As long as it hits the concrete circle there is no risk.


Well then lets hope we see a Active Cradle Landing (ACL) at LZ-1 ASAP.

(It would help the whole 24 hr goal too.)
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

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