Author Topic: What's the optimal timing for a SpaceX IPO? (Read 162517 times)

ChrisWilson68 · « **Reply #280 on:** 09/01/2013 04:53 am »

Quote from: sublimemarsupial on 09/01/2013 04:36 am

Quote from: meekGee on 09/01/2013 04:33 am
Quote from: QuantumG on 09/01/2013 02:20 am
Quote from: oiorionsbelt on 09/01/2013 02:19 am
No IPO until the MCT is working, sounds just right for spaceflight enthusiasts.

MCT might not be as far away as enthusiasts seem to think.

With that, I agree. Their development team can't have been fully occupied with F9 1.1 and Merlin 1D.

There's significant work on Dragon 2.0, I'm sure, but that's not the propulsion people.

Propulsion has some of the biggest changes for Dragon 2.0 with the dev and qual of superdraco plus the alteration of the propellant plumbing systems to be able to supply the superDs and the regular dracos from the same tabks

Also, if and when they get back a flown F9v1.1 first stage, they'll likely be tearing apart those flown engines to see how they fared. And if they can't recover the stages, it's not unlikely it's because the engines didn't survive the trip intact enough to relight for all the burns, which is again on the propulsion teams.

There's also propellant cross-feed for Falcon Heavy, which I imagine takes some time from the propulsion people. And the ongoing ramp-up of the Merlin 1D production rate. And, last I heard there were issues with the composite nozzle extension for the upper stage.

I don't think anyone on the propulsion teams at SpaceX is going to have a lot of free time in the near future.

MikeAtkinson · « **Reply #281 on:** 09/01/2013 06:43 am »

Quote from: sublimemarsupial on 09/01/2013 04:36 am

Propulsion has some of the biggest changes for Dragon 2.0 with the dev and qual of superdraco plus the alteration of the propellant plumbing systems to be able to supply the superDs and the regular dracos from the same tabks

Draco/Superdraco and Merlin almost certainly use separate development teams (Perhaps a few specialists in common). So the work on methane engines could have been going on for quite some time.

oldAtlas_Eguy · « **Reply #282 on:** 09/01/2013 07:41 pm »

Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 09/01/2013 06:43 am

Quote from: sublimemarsupial on 09/01/2013 04:36 am
Propulsion has some of the biggest changes for Dragon 2.0 with the dev and qual of superdraco plus the alteration of the propellant plumbing systems to be able to supply the superDs and the regular dracos from the same tabks

Draco/Superdraco and Merlin almost certainly use separate development teams (Perhaps a few specialists in common). So the work on methane engines could have been going on for quite some time.

The design team and the engine test teams are seperate functions and groups. The busy team at the moment is the test team. The design team is following along the test analysys because no flights yet. Once several flights have been done the reduced analysys effort will reduce the involvement of the design team which will shrink greatly and they will be twiddling their thumbs unless they have something to work on. This should occur by the end of this year. That is not to say that MCT work has not started or has started significantly. We just don't have that much insight into SpaceX.

aero · « **Reply #283 on:** 02/18/2014 03:48 pm »

Did anyone notice interest from Apple?

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/02/apple-may-look-to-acquire-or-partner.html

Just for information.

AncientU · « **Reply #284 on:** 02/18/2014 04:10 pm »

Quote from: aero on 02/18/2014 03:48 pm

Did anyone notice interest from Apple?

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/02/apple-may-look-to-acquire-or-partner.html

Just for information.

...$150B in cash...
That could change MANY games.

Elmar Moelzer · « **Reply #285 on:** 02/18/2014 05:52 pm »

Musk is not going to sell SpaceX as long as he has money to keep it going. As soon as you have to listen to investors and go to board meetings, you have to say bye bye to big dreams and all that matters are profit margins.

AncientU · « **Reply #286 on:** 02/18/2014 06:14 pm »

Quote from: Elmar Moelzer on 02/18/2014 05:52 pm

Musk is not going to sell SpaceX as long as he has money to keep it going. As soon as you have to listen to investors and go to board meetings, you have to say bye bye to big dreams and all that matters are profit margins.

But he might be willing to "rent it out." Just thinking that an APPLE-funded trip to somewhere interesting could be done with the interest on $150B. I suspect the interest is more in the smart car arena with Tesla.

TrevorMonty · « **Reply #287 on:** 02/18/2014 08:52 pm »

If Apple bought Tesla, Elon would have more time and money to spend on rockets and space.

AncientU · « **Reply #288 on:** 02/18/2014 09:09 pm »

Quote from: TrevorMonty on 02/18/2014 08:52 pm

If Apple bought Tesla, Elon would have more time and money to spend on rockets and space.

That would indefinitely postpone an IPO -- $3-5Billion (?) cash would fund some interesting projects and completely eliminate any need for new sources of cash if he again went all-in (maybe keeping back $1B or so for 'spending money').

But I still think Apple is mostly interested in adding intelligence to the vehicles, not manufacturing them.

AJW · « **Reply #289 on:** 02/18/2014 09:16 pm »

I believe that Tesla is also building a fab for batteries, so there could be some interest on Apple's part in working with them in this area.

IRobot · « **Reply #290 on:** 02/18/2014 09:51 pm »

Tesla batteries are not suitable for smartphones. No link there.

I seriously doubt Apple will buy Tesla. Tim Cook is not a visionary and if he acquires a company either he integrates its products within Apple (not the case) or the company must be profitable AND pay itself the cost of acquisition.

Personally I think Mercedes (which already owns part of Tesla) could make that integration and get the money back. But not Apple.

Also Mercedes must keep the Tesla link to keep up to BMW.

Mercedes (actually Daimler AG) is not much smaller than Apple. So, IMO, if someone is to buy Tesla, it will be Mercedes.

M_Puckett · « **Reply #291 on:** 02/18/2014 10:30 pm »

Quote from: Elmar Moelzer on 02/18/2014 05:52 pm

Musk is not going to sell SpaceX as long as he has money to keep it going. As soon as you have to listen to investors and go to board meetings, you have to say bye bye to big dreams and all that matters are profit margins.

If rumors that Google is planning on a thousand-plus broadband/sat phone constellation are true, Elon might have quite the upcoming revenue stream to look forward to in many Billions of dollars in launches.

baldusi · « **Reply #292 on:** 02/18/2014 10:32 pm »

Don't forget the Google car. My guess is that it has a lot to do with it. Thin about the future. Online cars. Not only they drive themselves, but talk among themselves to predict traffic, avoid jams, go around construction and accident s and park themselves at an optimum cost. You work in them, get entertainment and use it to interact. The computer in your car is your access to the cloud. And your car is upgraded with apps.
Tesla currently integrates with Google Maps, and your phone. What if the entertainment system could access your iTunes account? What if you could buy games for your kids, connect your car with the supermarket and simply send the car and the supermarket clerks put the bags on your thunk?
My guess is that this is about that future, who defines the standards, the app interface and generally who owns you as the client.