What's the optimal timing for a SpaceX IPO?

[go4mars]

Tesla is off-topic for these forums!

Tesla posts that don't directly relate to SpaceX are off topic.
 
The fact that Elon owns a third of a (currently) 10 billion dollar company is related to the future of SpaceX.  There might be tech or process things that relate the two companies also. 

But posts that don't tie info about Tesla to SpaceX are off topic.

[Lar]

Tesla is off-topic for these forums!

Tesla posts that don't directly relate to SpaceX are off topic.
 
The fact that Elon owns a third of a (currently) 10 billion dollar company is related to the future of SpaceX.  There might be tech or process things that relate the two companies also. 

But posts that don't tie info about Tesla to SpaceX are off topic.

Posts that talk about whether posts are off topic or not, are off topic.

I just reported myself.

However the thesis that Tesla wealth gives Musk some additional latitude with SpaceX IS an interesting one, and the recent runup, especially today, is nothing short of breathtaking.

[Dave G]

Elon Musk tweeted 1 hour ago:
"No near term plans to IPO @SpaceX. Only possible in very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

[PreferToLurk]

Elon Musk tweeted 1 hour ago:
"No near term plans to IPO @SpaceX. Only possible in very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

So much for the speculation on what MCT stands for.  Leave it to Elon to squash our guessing games.  I kinda liked "Musk's Colossal Thingamajig" 

[daver]

Elon Musk tweeted 1 hour ago:
"No near term plans to IPO @SpaceX. Only possible in very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

SpaceX won't be IPO'ing in the next few years for sure. 

[GalacticIntruder]

That basically means no IPO for at least another decade and probably much longer or never. Not only does MCT have to be flying people and goods to Mars but it has to be regular enough to have ongoing and predictable revenue.

I can only surmise Elon is confident enough in government and private sector revenue streams plus, the private financial markets and his own wealth to fund his space dreams. Most us assume It will require several billion dollars at the least.

[neilh]

Elon Musk tweeted 1 hour ago:
"No near term plans to IPO @SpaceX. Only possible in very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk

SpaceX won't be IPO'ing in the next few years for sure. 

As noted over in SpaceX F9v1.1 discussion thread, there were actually three relevant tweets in succession by Elon Musk:

No near term plans to IPO @SpaceX. Only possible in very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly.

Easier said than done. There is a lot of pressure from investors. It is hard not to feel super bad if u don't make ur qtr. (note: not sure exactly which tweet this was in reply to)

Yes. Also don't want pressure on the team to do a launch in time for qtr end and maybe miss something. Passing grade for a rocket is 100%.

[QuantumG]

That basically means no IPO for at least another decade and probably much longer or never. Not only does MCT have to be flying people and goods to Mars but it has to be regular enough to have ongoing and predictable revenue.

So.. after Mars One is successful. 

[Lurker Steve]

I wonder how many Space X employees see the IPO as an opportunity to cash in on their long term tenure at SpaceX ? Certainly there can't be more than the first 50 or so employees that will really cash in.

Musk obviously has plenty of personal funds, but that just means he doesn't need a paycheck. They did a supplemental offering at Telsa, so they could pay back the government loans. Then he needed invest an additional 100 million into Telsa, just so his ownership share wouldn't get diluted.

So, what would SpaceX do with the additional capital funding ? Then are already getting a significant portion of their R&D paid for by NASA.

[QuantumG]

I don't know about southern California, but stock options have lost their appeal in Silicon Valley. No-one banks on them, or trades salary for stock options, anymore. It's a nice-to-have, and maybe increases motivation by 1% but, for somewhere like SpaceX, I think the primary motivation is being a part of a great (ad)venture.

[neilh]

I don't know about southern California, but stock options have lost their appeal in Silicon Valley. No-one banks on them, or trades salary for stock options, anymore. It's a nice-to-have, and maybe increases motivation by 1% but, for somewhere like SpaceX, I think the primary motivation is being a part of a great (ad)venture.

I know of (extremely talented) folks in the tech sector here in SoCal who go for a low salary and equity in a company they're passionate about, rather than a higher salary elsewhere. I think the relatively low rent here (compared to Silicon Valley) allows people the flexibility to do this and not have to commit financial suicide.

[jg]

I wonder how many Space X employees see the IPO as an opportunity to cash in on their long term tenure at SpaceX ? Certainly there can't be more than the first 50 or so employees that will really cash in.

Musk obviously has plenty of personal funds, but that just means he doesn't need a paycheck. They did a supplemental offering at Telsa, so they could pay back the government loans. Then he needed invest an additional 100 million into Telsa, just so his ownership share wouldn't get diluted.

So, what would SpaceX do with the additional capital funding ? Then are already getting a significant portion of their R&D paid for by NASA.

There might be possibilities for employees to get some money out of their stock if there are private stock placements between now and the IPO.  You will note that such private placements saved Musk's posterior anatomy during the financial crisis; some of his friends traded cash for stock (at least in Tesla) when Elon had committed all the cash he had.

I think Elon Musk's point is that he definitely wants control of SpaceX until that date.  This can be handled, if necessary, with more than one class of stock.

 

[Avron]

lets read on.. tweets..

Easier said than done. There is a lot of pressure from investors. It is hard not to feel super bad if u don't make ur qtr.

@elonmusk Why don't you launch 10 Year Mars Fund: Minimum investment term is one decade?

We don't need cash (right now), but I wd like to find a way for those who care to participate. Will consider.

--->> I dont see control and I see  cash need as not now..

[A_M_Swallow]

This website has some ideas on selling shares in a private company (like SpaceX).
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/privatecompanystock.asp

SpaceX could set up a share buy back system or its own private stock market.

[R7]

That basically means no IPO for at least another decade and probably much longer or never. Not only does MCT have to be flying people and goods to Mars but it has to be regular enough to have ongoing and predictable revenue.

So.. after Mars One is successful. 

And not until Heisenberg compensators and pattern buffers hit TRL 4+. Hyperloop is obviously codename for short distance trials.

"Mars Colonial Transporter"

[Lobo]

I don't know about southern California, but stock options have lost their appeal in Silicon Valley. No-one banks on them, or trades salary for stock options, anymore. It's a nice-to-have, and maybe increases motivation by 1% but, for somewhere like SpaceX, I think the primary motivation is being a part of a great (ad)venture.

I know of (extremely talented) folks in the tech sector here in SoCal who go for a low salary and equity in a company they're passionate about, rather than a higher salary elsewhere. I think the relatively low rent here (compared to Silicon Valley) allows people the flexibility to do this and not have to commit financial suicide.

There's a old axiom that you never put your retirement investment where you collect your paycheck, because if something goes bad (Enron) then you loose your job -and- retirement...

[krytek]

I was going to buy $25k tesla stock, but need another way to participate.

[tigerade]

Good interview with Elon that is mostly Tesla related but he does mention why he's against a SpaceX IPO in the short term:

See 24:10 in this video for SpaceX comments

http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=share&cid=1090140&shareToken=MzoyNmJlOWFiMC01MzMxLTRjMTYtYmRlZS05MjNlMWFhZjgwZmM%3D

Elon's comments
- Stock market is very short term oriented, Mars is a long term goal
- Had conversations with investors
- 12 years or so for Mars missions
- Sees a window of opportunity, not sure how long it'll be open
- SpaceX cash flow positive/profitable for about 5 years
- Might be able to accrue enough revenue through comsat launches, may not need additional investment
- Doesn't want to explain to public investors why the company wants to go to Mars
- Thinks Mars and space exploration is inspiring, great adventure, brighter future

[woods170]

Good interview with Elon that is mostly Tesla related but he does mention why he's against a SpaceX IPO in the short term:

See 24:10 in this video for SpaceX comments

http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=share&cid=1090140&shareToken=MzoyNmJlOWFiMC01MzMxLTRjMTYtYmRlZS05MjNlMWFhZjgwZmM%3D

Elon's comments
- Stock market is very short term oriented, Mars is a long term goal
- Had conversations with investors
- 12 years or so for Mars missions
- Sees a window of opportunity, not sure how long it'll be open
- SpaceX cash flow positive/profitable for about 5 years
- Might be able to accrue enough revenue through comsat launches, may not need additional investment
- Doesn't want to explain to public investors why the company wants to go to Mars
- Thinks Mars and space exploration is inspiring, great adventure, brighter future

All the right reasons. Good for him.

[ChrisWilson68]

I don't know about southern California, but stock options have lost their appeal in Silicon Valley. No-one banks on them, or trades salary for stock options, anymore. It's a nice-to-have, and maybe increases motivation by 1% but, for somewhere like SpaceX, I think the primary motivation is being a part of a great (ad)venture.

I work at a start-up in Silicon Valley, and I can tell you that's not true.  The emphasis on stock options has diminished somewhat, but it's still a very big thing for many people here.  Those people tend to join smaller companies.  The smaller the start-up, the lower the salary tends to be but the higher the potential pay-off of the options.