What's the optimal timing for a SpaceX IPO?

[Zed_Noir]

Don't think the IPO will happen until after the 2nd commercial launch plus a successful Falcon Heavy Demo flight. Money from the IPO after those events should be enough to fund the development of several new major project at SpaceX (FX, Merlin 2, LOX/CH4 engine, etc.) .   My 2 cents.

[Jim]

The optimal time is before the next failure

[Robotbeat]

The optimal time is before the next failure

Of course, unless everyone is going to divest themselves of any stake in SpaceX, a failure after IPO may be even worse for the company.

[go4mars]

The optimal time is before the next failure

The optimal timing really depends on how much Elon believes reusability is possible. 

[Jim]

Of course, unless everyone is going to divest themselves of any stake in SpaceX, a failure after IPO may be even worse for the company.

Unless there was a systematic problem, I disagree with that.  It might chase away new customers in the short term, and maybe a few existing ones too, but they have a pretty full (and growing) manifest to churn through. 

Not really, the few non NASA could disappear real quick

[yg1968]

The optimal time is before the next failure

Musk said that one of the reason for the IPO would be to raise more capital in order to weather a failure should it occur. So you and Musk seem in agreement on this one.

[go4mars]

Musk said that one of the reason for the IPO would be to raise more capital in order to weather a failure should it occur. So you and Musk seem in agreement on this one.

I'm pretty sure he said that before he was a billionaire twice over. 

[Chris-A]

Musk said that one of the reason for the IPO would be to raise more capital in order to weather a failure should it occur. So you and Musk seem in agreement on this one.

I'm pretty sure he said that before he was a billionaire twice over. 

Elon was never a billionaire on the first round.

[dcporter]

That phrase usually means "a guy with enough money to be a billionaire twice over", i.e. $2B or so.

[starsilk]

Elon talking about an IPO in late 2013:

“SpaceX doesn’t absolutely need to go public, so it’s best to delay going public until we have a steady stream of launches occurring,” he said. Late 2013 is the most likely timing, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-09/musk-sees-spacex-ipo-in-2013-as-solarcity-awaits-lease-review.html

[Robotbeat]

“....so it’s best to delay going public until we have a steady stream of launches occurring,” [Elon] said. ...

THIS.

So glad he is well aware of that. Everyone else is, too, of course, but amidst his grand ideas, it's very nice to see he is in touch with reality.

[Mader Levap]

So glad he is well aware of that. Everyone else is, too, of course, but amidst his grand ideas, it's very nice to see he is in touch with reality.

My favourite hypothesis is that he knows very well how his Mars plan sounds. He just love yanking chains of everyone, especially direct competition.
So yes, he IS in touch with reality as any one of us.

[sanman]

Musk has notably stated that he recognizes that markets don't like uncertainty. He doesn't want a SpaceX that suffers from all kinds of fluctuating stock valuations due to markets not having solidified yet.

He's a realist who doesn't want his biplanetary dreams to be hostage to navel-gazers who can't look past the next quarter and the next dividend.

More on a possible SpaceX IPO:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Forget+Facebook,+SpaceX+Success+Has+Market+Thinking+IPO/7484884.html

[kevin-rf]

Cough, Cough, Facebook IPO ... gotta run.

[wolfpack]

It would be ridiculous at this point. IPO would create a massive distraction that would be detrimental to the work being done. Believe me, I've been through them. All the watercooler talk will be IPO this, IPO that, and work will suffer.

The SpX board should delay it as long as possible. If SpaceX is profitable, and it is possible to do so, they should pay dividends to the shareholders (employees and private capital at this point).

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Based on Elon's statement of doing an IPO not until launch rate becomes 1 a month, the manafest shows that occurance NET 2015. Actually 2015 shows 15, some of which may not occur, but deffinitly sufficient generate at least 12 that year and maybe more if Commercial Crew test flights occur that year as well. Which also suggests that IPO timing maybe best after the SpaceX DragonRider test phase has been completed.

[go4mars]

Those ignorants will be the ones putting their money on the IPO. Or did you think this is only an engineering thing?? Elon has to keep doing flashy things to have a strong IPO in 2013-2014, especially after the Facebook over evaluation scam.

Facebook is not the first IPO that was extremely poorly valued, and won't be the last.  A key point that financial analysts will note is that so far, all of Elon's have provided solid returns for investors (reasonable to low valuations).  All IPO's are evaluated individually.  Facebook folly will have no impact on the SpaceX IPO.  Feel free to PM me if you are curious to know more of my thoughts about this.

[fatjohn1408]

2017. This goes for all IPO's. Its when the dow/gold ratio will bottom if you ask me.

[Ludus]

Hopefully they can put off the disruption of an ipo until they are a couple more years into proving they can pull off launches reliably and safely. Falcon heavy would have launched, there would be lots of cool coverage of grasshopper and dragon propulsively landing to make rapid reuse seem plausible. They would have taken their best shot at breaking the ULA monopoly on military contracts. That would be near the first crewed dragon flight, assuming everything goes well, say 2015. So might as well say after the first dragonrider manned mission. That's likely the first private manned mission in history, the first US manned mission in quite a few years and a huge PR boost. I don't see facebook or general market conditions as important factors.

2015 or so would also coincide with late stage grasshopper testing and a decision to go ahead with serious development and testing of a reusable first stage...which is the sort of capital intensive project an ipo would support.

[IRobot]

Those ignorants will be the ones putting their money on the IPO. Or did you think this is only an engineering thing?? Elon has to keep doing flashy things to have a strong IPO in 2013-2014, especially after the Facebook over evaluation scam.

Facebook is not the first IPO that was extremely poorly valued, and won't be the last.  A key point that financial analysts will note is that so far, all of Elon's have provided solid returns for investors (reasonable to low valuations).  All IPO's are evaluated individually.  Facebook folly will have no impact on the SpaceX IPO. 

If you look at the FaceBook financial data, you will see it was evaluated 8x-10x over its worth. Facebook was not poorly valued, it was a deliberate scam. It was a "let's see how high we can pull this and still get away with it."

Facebook will have some impact on SpaceX IPO, but my point is that tech companies are overvalued based on hype. Facebook destroyed part of that general hype.
The more SpaceX shows on the news, the more the IPO will value it.