Author Topic: What's the optimal timing for a SpaceX IPO? (Read 162511 times)

shuttle_buff · « **Reply #100 on:** 04/04/2011 11:55 pm »

So what is A R M ?

I think of "Active Risk Management"

So I don't probably understand your A R M

Nate_Trost · « **Reply #101 on:** 04/05/2011 12:08 am »

It's just silly to try and draw parallels between Tesla and SpaceX.

Tesla is a more traditional VC model startup to IPO/acquisition path in a global industry where the heavyweights combine for several hundred billion dollars a year in annual sales. It's pretty much an established endgame that if Tesla executes, one of the big players buys them for a substantial sum. That they haven't reached profitability at the time of the IPO isn't relevant, it's the growth potential, and to a lesser extent, the tech.

SpaceX is in a sector where investors have gotten burned numerous times by projected estimates of growth that didn't pan out. When you exclude US government business, the global commercial launch business is what, a couple billion dollars a year? And not all of that is even available for SpaceX to try and win.The prospects for growth by Wall Street desires are anemic at best, Elon isn't going to sell the company (even if he did, who would want to buy it?), or give up a controlling interest so he doesn't have to maximize profitability at the expense of his personal desires and interests. That's not an IPO that's going to raise a lot of money or a stock that is going to set the world on fire. It still might happen at some point in the future, I don't know how heavily stock options have been placed with employees, but when you consider the downsides of being a publically listed company, don't hold your breath too much.

Downix · « **Reply #102 on:** 04/05/2011 12:12 am »

Quote from: shuttle_buff on 04/04/2011 11:55 pm

So what is A R M ?

I think of "Active Risk Management"

So I don't probably understand your A R M

ARM is a processor family, which effectively took over from MIPS for the lower end mobile market. TI was an early adopter of ARM technology, and as a result now has a controlling lead in the mobile marketplace of smartphones and other low power devices. Their Beagleboard prototyping board has become a nerdgasm of the modding market. Brilliant strategy, I'll admit to owning two myself.

shuttle_buff · « **Reply #103 on:** 04/05/2011 12:22 am »

So Nate_Trost,

When Ford buys Tesla, you are going to buy me beer?

It's the Elon strategy. It's perfectly clear to me?

Why would someone start three companies?

Hoping one company actually took-off!

Now that all three have taken-off Elon has to manage damage control (his effort managing all three).

His heart is in SpaceX so the other two will be sold or Elon will die of a heart-attack! (or some over stressed condition)

shuttle_buff

Dave G · « **Reply #104 on:** 04/05/2011 02:31 am »

Quote from: shuttle_buff on 04/05/2011 12:22 am

Why would someone start three companies?

Elon Musk started SpaceX.

Martin Eberhard started Tesla. Elon provided early funding. Elon never wanted to run Tesla, but that's what happened.

The Rive brothers started Solar City, with funding from Elon. Elon has very little to do with the daily operations of Solar City.

mlorrey · « **Reply #105 on:** 04/06/2011 03:59 am »

Elon's press conf today, he said that they've been discussing an IPO, with no firm decisions, but if they were to do one it would happen at the end of 2012, when he expects the company to have a very consistent revenue stream going.

Ergo, my original prediction...

docmordrid · « **Reply #106 on:** 04/06/2011 06:04 am »

And what some IPO forecasters have been predicting.

R.Simko · « **Reply #107 on:** 04/06/2011 11:45 pm »

Quote from: shuttle_buff on 04/05/2011 12:22 am

So Nate_Trost,

When Ford buys Tesla, you are going to buy me beer?

It's the Elon strategy. It's perfectly clear to me?

Why would someone start three companies?

Hoping one company actually took-off!

Now that all three have taken-off Elon has to manage damage control (his effort managing all three).

His heart is in SpaceX so the other two will be sold or Elon will die of a heart-attack! (or some over stressed condition)

shuttle_buff

I don't know how stressed he is, but he is certainly looking younger all the time.

He doesn't by chance own a "Fountain of Youth" company that I'm not aware of, does he?

Edit: Forgot to put in the smiley face.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #108 on:** 04/06/2011 11:59 pm »

No one told you that his rockets travel at relativistic speeds? Hence the time dilation you are seeing

Robotbeat · « **Reply #109 on:** 04/07/2011 12:17 am »

Quote from: kevin-rf on 04/06/2011 11:59 pm

No one told you that his rockets travel at relativistic speeds? Hence the time dilation you are seeing

LOL!!! That totally explains the SpaceX multiplier!

Hmmm... dt/dt'=1/sqrt(1-v^2/c^2)....
If the multiplier (dt/dt') is equal to 2.4, then...

1/2.4^2=1-v^2/c^2
...
sqrt(1-1/2.4^2)=v/c...
so, SpaceX's rockets must be going at about 91% of the speed of light...

Comga · « **Reply #110 on:** 04/07/2011 03:56 am »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/07/2011 12:17 am

Quote from: kevin-rf on 04/06/2011 11:59 pm
No one told you that his rockets travel at relativistic speeds? Hence the time dilation you are seeing
LOL!!! That totally explains the SpaceX multiplier!

Hmmm... dt/dt'=1/sqrt(1-v^2/c^2)....
If the multiplier (dt/dt') is equal to 2.4, then...
1/2.4^2=1-v^2/c^2
sqrt(1-1/2.4^2)=v/c...
so, SpaceX's rockets must be going at about 91% of the speed of light...

That's very, very good. Thank you.

beancounter · « **Reply #111 on:** 04/07/2011 06:55 am »

Quote from: Comga on 04/07/2011 03:56 am

Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/07/2011 12:17 am
Quote from: kevin-rf on 04/06/2011 11:59 pm
No one told you that his rockets travel at relativistic speeds? Hence the time dilation you are seeing
LOL!!! That totally explains the SpaceX multiplier!

Hmmm... dt/dt'=1/sqrt(1-v^2/c^2)....
If the multiplier (dt/dt') is equal to 2.4, then...
1/2.4^2=1-v^2/c^2
sqrt(1-1/2.4^2)=v/c...
so, SpaceX's rockets must be going at about 91% of the speed of light...

That's very, very good. Thank you.

Yes I'm very impressed. Would you care to elaborate on the latest advances in String Theory as well?

david1971 · « **Reply #112 on:** 04/08/2011 04:15 am »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/07/2011 12:17 am

Quote from: kevin-rf on 04/06/2011 11:59 pm
No one told you that his rockets travel at relativistic speeds? Hence the time dilation you are seeing
LOL!!! That totally explains the SpaceX multiplier!

Hmmm... dt/dt'=1/sqrt(1-v^2/c^2)....
If the multiplier (dt/dt') is equal to 2.4, then...

1/2.4^2=1-v^2/c^2
...
sqrt(1-1/2.4^2)=v/c...
so, SpaceX's rockets must be going at about 91% of the speed of light...

So they have been running with stretched tanks...

mlorrey · « **Reply #113 on:** 04/08/2011 07:21 pm »

Quote from: docmordrid on 04/06/2011 06:04 am

And what some IPO forecasters have been predicting.

Yes, and I'll note that my original prediction here was pretty roundly thrashed by certain persons who remain silent.

Nate_Trost · « **Reply #114 on:** 04/08/2011 07:38 pm »

Quote from: mlorrey on 04/08/2011 07:21 pm

Quote from: docmordrid on 04/06/2011 06:04 am
And what some IPO forecasters have been predicting.

Yes, and I'll note that my original prediction here was pretty roundly thrashed by certain persons who remain silent.

I think going public might be some time in late 2009 ... something on that order," he said in a telephone interview from his headquarters in Hawthorne, California. -- Elon Musk, December 2007

It's all wishful thinking until the prospectus is out.

RocketEconomist327 · « **Reply #115 on:** 04/10/2011 03:38 am »

Quote from: Nate_Trost on 04/08/2011 07:38 pm

Quote from: mlorrey on 04/08/2011 07:21 pm
Quote from: docmordrid on 04/06/2011 06:04 am
And what some IPO forecasters have been predicting.

Yes, and I'll note that my original prediction here was pretty roundly thrashed by certain persons who remain silent.

I think going public might be some time in late 2009 ... something on that order," he said in a telephone interview from his headquarters in Hawthorne, California. -- Elon Musk, December 2007

It's all wishful thinking until the prospectus is out.

I would just add the VERY NEXT Paragraph to your post... sir.

Quote from: (Reuters) - Jim Wolf

<snip>

"I think going public might be some time in late 2009 ... something on that order," he said in a telephone interview from his headquarters in Hawthorne, California.

But Musk said he was in no rush, did not need funds and was keen to get at least two successful launches of the Falcon 9 rocket under his belt before an initial public offering.

He doesn't need it yet. If Dragon gets CCDEV-2 monies then the IPO could be delayed. Even if awarded CCDEV-2 monies, but they are not enough, the IPO could go forward.

For the record I sincerely hope SpaceX stays private as long as celestially possible. The longer Elon is running the show and does not have to answer to "corporate" and the "share holders" the better off SpaceX is.

VR
TEA
RE327

neilh · « **Reply #116 on:** 04/14/2011 05:43 pm »

Reuters article on potential IPO toward the end of next year:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/04/12/us-spaceexploration-idUKTRE73B7US20110412

Quote

"I think there's a decent chance of an IPO toward the end of next year," Musk told a media briefing on Tuesday at the National Space Symposium conference in Colorado Springs, Colorado. "It's something that we are considering."

go4mars · « **Reply #117 on:** 02/10/2012 03:51 am »

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/musk-sees-good-chance-of-spacex-stock-offering-by-next-year.html?cmpid=msnmoney

kevin-rf · « **Reply #118 on:** 02/10/2012 12:28 pm »

I said it in another thread that has the same link, with the SpaceX time dilation factor, that will be about 2015...

subzero788 · « **Reply #119 on:** 02/10/2012 01:51 pm »

The IPO seems to be slipping to the right at the same rate as the manifest. I recall hearing maybe 2-3 years ago that they would likely go public after the second successful F9 launch. Not that there's any rush.