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STS-132 Launch Weather Forecast
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2010 11:29
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The 45th Weather Squadron has posted their (approximately) 72-hour forecast:
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdfAs Rob already previewed, not a bad outlook. Currently 30% chance of weather prohibiting launch.
Synoptic Discussion: High pressure is currently dominating Florida and this will continue for the next several days. As a result, favorable weather conditions will persist for pre-launch and launch operations. Early mornings will have light winds with a chance of a coastal rainshower. Winds will be out of the east and increase through the afternoon hours with peak winds near 18 to 22 knots. Partly cloudy and generally dry conditions will dominate the afternoon hours. On launch day, low clouds will form and move into the area due to afternoon heating and convergent low-level flow. This will bring a chance of a low-cloud ceiling in the afternoon. Our primary concern for launch is a low-cloud ceiling. Weather remains similar for a 24-hour and 48-hour delay; however, winds on Sunday will increase enough to make crosswind conditions more of a concern for Return-to-Launch Site (RTLS) operations at the SLF.
Same caution as always: it's still a long ways from scheduled liftoff.
(It does sound like reasonable viewing conditions, though forecast also sounds like there would be a stiff sea-breeze.)
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#1
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2010 14:19
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First SMG forecast is published now, too:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0000
NOUS54 KWNJ 111415
OAVJSC
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 11 2010
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-132
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1820Z
DATE: 05/14/10
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT250 7 10010P17
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA SCT030 BKN050 OVC110 7 30011P18
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SCT025 BKN070 BKN220 7 26009P13
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SCT040 BKN080 BKN200 7 23009P13
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 SCT250 7 10010P17
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 05/14/10 23Z TO 05/15/10 00Z
EDW SKC 7 22010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... PRECIP
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... PRECIP
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 12/1100Z
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
GARNER/VAN SPEYBROECK/WAHNER
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#2
by
cd-slam
on 11 May, 2010 15:11
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TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA SCT030 BKN050 OVC110 7 30011P18
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SCT025 BKN070 BKN220 7 26009P13
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SCT040 BKN080 BKN200 7 23009P13
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
Oh good, does this confirm that Moron is GO for TAL now? Had seen some documentation about work being done on the runway.
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#3
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2010 15:14
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Oh good, does this confirm that Moron is GO for TAL now? Had seen some documentation about work being done on the runway.
Probably not in and of itself; we would have seen something if there'd been any problems. More of a 'no news is good news' thing.
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#4
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 11:39
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#5
by
Tourmaline
on 12 May, 2010 12:59
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Is volcanic ash likely to be a concern for TAL site weather?
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#6
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 13:03
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Is volcanic ash likely to be a concern for TAL site weather?
No effect on TAL site
availability -- the personnel should already be deployed. As for whether the ash has some effect on the weather at the TAL sites on launch day, hard to say, but not particularly relevant. The weather at the sites will either be go or no-go at the time the decision to proceed to liftoff is made, and only one TAL site needs to be go for launch.
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#7
by
ETEE
on 12 May, 2010 17:38
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Is volcanic ash likely to be a concern for TAL site weather?
The main concern for jet aircraft is the intake of particles into the engine, causing turbine blade damage.
A re-entering gliding orbiter would have different concerns, but with the plume at about 10-20,000ft, it would be damage to the aero surfaces that would be important.
BTW the plume was over Spain and Southern France a few days ago, so NASA must have looked at likely volcanic particle impacts.
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#8
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 17:45
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A re-entering gliding orbiter would have different concerns, but with the plume at about 10-20,000ft, it would be damage to the aero surfaces that would be important.
Haven't seen or heard that...is there a reference?
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#9
by
arkaska
on 12 May, 2010 18:08
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http://www.meteo.fr/vaac/einfo.htmlBeyond the potential for a major accident linked to engine failures, volcanic ash can be a considerable threat for other reasons. Ash is very hard and extremely abrasive and therefore erodes airframe, flight surfaces, and jet engine parts. The abrasion of the cockpit windows can lead to reduction or loss of pilots' forward visibility. As volcanic ash is generally too fine to be stopped by normal filtration systems, it can heavily contaminate the cooling system, as well as electrical and avionic units, rendering aircraft control difficult. Lastly, volcanic ash is often accompanied by a very corrosive aerosol of sulphuric acid, H2SO4, coming from oxidation and hydration of SO2 released during the eruption.
I guess the orbiter wouldn't face to much trouble landing even if a heavy ash-cloud is present but it will probably case damage to the orbiter and especially the TPS as they aren't design to handle material impact. So I guess the ash-cloud would have a grave impact on the turn-around time for the next mission. The higher speed of the shuttle will probably be problematic as well since the ash-particles will hit the shuttle with greater speed and force.
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#10
by
arkaska
on 12 May, 2010 18:22
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#11
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 18:35
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I guess the orbiter wouldn't face to much trouble landing even if a heavy ash-cloud is present but it will probably case damage to the orbiter and especially the TPS as they aren't design to handle material impact. So I guess the ash-cloud would have a grave impact on the turn-around time for the next mission. The higher speed of the shuttle will probably be problematic as well since the ash-particles will hit the shuttle with greater speed and force.
The question I'd have is how much of an apples-to-oranges comparison this is. I'm looking for a reference to some analysis of an orbiter approach and landing.
The note from today's pre-launch briefing made more sense -- if ash concentrations keep the weather reconnaissance aircraft on the ground, that could be a hypothetical issue. (Didn't sound like that was the case, though.)
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#12
by
rdale
on 12 May, 2010 19:31
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The ash is very fine and not likely to do any damage to the orbiter that I could imagine.
On a launch-related note, I'll throw a token 5% chance of launch weather violation.
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#13
by
robertross
on 12 May, 2010 22:19
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On a launch-related note, I'll throw a token 5% chance of launch weather violation.
fantastic. Appreciate the updates! (can only use my iTouch so I've been close to panic not knowing the latest, but guaranteed the best site has everything covered)
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#14
by
rdale
on 13 May, 2010 12:31
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Morning check shows nothing changing much in my outlook. Airmass is still quite dry (especially for Florida standards this time of year) so no precip threat. I understand USAF's slight concern about clouds, but nowhere near their 30% risk. I suppose maybe a 30% chance the clouds could increase enough to hit the "formal" criteria of concern, but nothing that the STA wouldn't be able to give a clearance for.
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#15
by
psloss
on 13 May, 2010 12:32
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Morning check shows nothing changing much in my outlook. Airmass is still quite dry (especially for Florida standards this time of year) so no precip threat. I understand USAF's slight concern about clouds, but nowhere near their 30% risk. I suppose maybe a 30% chance the clouds could increase enough to hit the "formal" criteria of concern, but nothing that the STA wouldn't be able to give a clearance for.
How's TAL weather looking to you?
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#16
by
rdale
on 13 May, 2010 12:41
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My TAL-ability has become more difficult with time, it seems more European agencies are charging for the "good" data (and my NSF salary doesn't quite cover
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Moron still looks the best, I won't argue with NWS SMG's chance of rain for the other two but I don't forsee a washout so odds are at least one good site.
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#17
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 08:00
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SMG posted their launch forecast for the tanking meeting a few hours ago...don't see any major changes to the weather forecast. No weather violations at the CONUS sites or Moron, chance of violations at Zaragoza and Istres.
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#18
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 08:08
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Academic exercise on the tanking weather; as forecast, no issues.
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#19
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 11:50
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METAR observations in the last hour; still a long ways away:
KSC SLF:
KTTS 141055Z 12006KT 10SM FEW028 FEW170 SCT320 22/20 A3023 RMK SLP237 1CU /0/ 1CS 4CI /2/
MRN:
LEMO 141100Z 29009KT 260V360 9999 FEW032 18/06 Q1017 NOSIG
ZZA:
LEZG 141130Z 32018G28KT 290V350 9999 FEW040 SCT060 13/02 Q1011
FMI:
LFMI 141130Z AUTO 32010KT 290V350 9999NDV FEW027 OVC045 15/08 Q1007
A little windy at Zaragoza as of that report, but KSC and Moron still look good.
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#20
by
TALsite
on 14 May, 2010 12:20
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#21
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 12:23
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pslossA little windy at Zaragoza
Yeahh...
Here is a link to the Spanish weather service:
http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/localidades/zaragoza-50001
Rain probabilities 25%
29 kph NW wind.
This wind is named "Cierzo" and is a guarantee for not rain at all. Hope Cierzo helps.
We'll see what the wind speed and direction are later in the day. Only need one of the three TAL sites to be go.
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#22
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 13:56
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SMG forecast from 1220Z, about 90 minutes ago...no major changes -- the issues at Zaragoza and Istres are a little different, but Moron still forecast to be go.
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#23
by
rdale
on 14 May, 2010 14:42
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The GOES-13 (EAST) satellite is now bring operated in "rapid-scan" mode, which will give us new images every 5-10 minutes instead of every 15. Still no issues that I can see.
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#24
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 14:52
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Chris Ferguson will be flying weather recon at KSC again for this launch.
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#25
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 15:12
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Sounds like T-38 weather recon flight will begin soon...attaching somewhat recent satellite images...
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#26
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 15:24
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Chris Ferguson will be flying weather recon at KSC again for this launch.
Nope -- he just went out with the crew. Lee Archambault is flying weather recon in NASA 960; can hear him on the weather net now.
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#27
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 15:34
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Recent SLF observation:
SPECI KTTS 141525Z 11009G19KT 10SM SCT028 BKN300 27/21 A3028 RMK SLP254 4CU /4/ 3CI /5/ N1211/15 C1309/14 S1109/19
A little gusty...seems bit more at the south end...
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#28
by
rdale
on 14 May, 2010 15:42
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STA reports clouds are very dynamic, occasional obscuration of the navaids but nothing notable. "Big picture is that navaids look pretty good."
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#29
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 15:44
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Report from weather recon in NASA 960 (T-38) to weather CapCom: Big picture 3/8 coverage, navaids look pretty good. 33 navaids partially obscured, 15 navaids ok. A little more coverage over Merritt Island, but it's dynamic.
Coverage could be down to 1/8 in an hour...
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#30
by
rdale
on 14 May, 2010 15:50
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T38: No vertical development in any of the clouds.
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#31
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 15:51
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STA: No vertical development in any of the clouds.
Trivia nit: still in the T-38 (NASA 960). Will switch to one of the STAs at some point.
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#32
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 15:55
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Sounds like NASA 960 is heading for approach and land on Rwy 15...tower calls winds 120 at 11 knots gust to 16 (or 15, may have misheard).
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#33
by
rdale
on 14 May, 2010 16:00
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KTTS 141555Z 11010G15KT 080V150 10SM SCT028 BKN300 27/21 A3027 RMK
SLP251 3CU /3/ 2CI /5/ N1110/15 C1209/16 S1210/16=
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#34
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:05
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Moron still looks good, too...hour ago:
METAR LEMO 141500Z 30012KT 280V360 9999 FEW040 20/05 Q1018 NOSIG
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#35
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:08
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KSC landing convoy doing comm checks on the purge and cool nets now...
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#36
by
saturnsky
on 14 May, 2010 16:23
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Weather recon bird made low level pass over causeway. Wowed the crowd!!
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#37
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:32
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Sounds like NASA 947 is the weather recon STA today; believe I heard cleared for takeoff.
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#38
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:38
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SLF observation from a few minutes ago:
SPECI KTTS 141625Z 13009G16KT 100V180 10SM SCT028 BKN300 27/21 A3027 RMK SLP251 3CU /3/ 3CI /5/ N1109/16 C1211/17 S1309/16
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#39
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:41
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Lee Archambault now in NASA 947, called the weather coordinator that he's wheels up and headed out over the water. Will climb up to 8-10kft. Reported the same scattered clouds at about 2800 feet in the SLF observations.
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#40
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:44
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Weather recon (NASA 947) reporting about the same conditions, big picture -- 3/8 coverage, less north of the field, about 1/8 coverage.
Crystal clear at the pad, scattered about halfway between the coast and the SLF. Around the Indian River and Titusville looked like no more than 2/8 coverage.
Saying it's a little better than the earlier T-38 flight...only pockets of 3/8 coverage, maybe 2/8 at the SLF.
Going to setup for a left into 33 first.
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#41
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 16:58
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Sounds like NASA 947 is proceeding on to the next dive, into 15. KSC weather still looks favorable.
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#42
by
rdale
on 14 May, 2010 17:08
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Winds actually lighter now at the landing site. Unless I see anything changing, I'm about done with a met analysis and will let psloss handle the weather recon comms.
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#43
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 17:09
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Winds actually lighter now at the landing site. Unless I see anything changing, I'm about done with a met analysis and will let psloss handle the weather recon comms.
Recent SLF observation:
METAR KTTS 141655Z 12008KT 080V150 10SM SCT028 BKN300 28/22 A3027 RMK SLP251 3CU /3/ 6CS /4/ N1210/16 C1010/16 S1208/1
Still looks good. Not sure there's much to report...sounds like the net is busier with other traffic (doesn't sound totally related to launch ops, either).
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#44
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 17:25
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Landing convoy deploying to mid-field.
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#45
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 17:27
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Weather recon reporting overall coverage of no worse than 2/8. "Great before, even better now."
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#46
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 17:32
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Going to stick with Rwy 33 for (hypothetical) RTLS.
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#47
by
rdale
on 14 May, 2010 18:00
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KTTS 141755Z 09008KT 050V140 10SM FEW028 BKN300 28/22 A3026 RMK
SLP247 2CU /2/ 7CS /4/ N0811/19 C1010/16 S0908/14 58007=
Light winds and practically no clouds. No threat of a weather issue today.
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#48
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 18:02
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KTTS 141755Z 09008KT 050V140 10SM FEW028 BKN300 28/22 A3026 RMK
SLP247 2CU /2/ 7CS /4/ N0811/19 C1010/16 S0908/14 58007=
Light winds and practically no clouds. No threat of a weather issue today.
Yeah, and all the TAL sites are good enough to support.
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#49
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 18:28
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Launch observation at the SLF:
SPECI KTTS 141820Z 11009G16KT 10SM FEW028 BKN300 28/22 A3026 RMK SLP247 1CU /1/ 7CS /3/ N1208/17 C1210/15 S1109/16
With the negative return call, the landing convoy at the SLF can stand-down from RTLS. Waiting for OMS-2 before AOA release.
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#50
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 19:05
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Now negative AOA with the good OMS-2 burn. Edwards is PLS for Saturday and Sunday.
)