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STS-132 Launch Weather Forecast
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2010 11:29
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The 45th Weather Squadron has posted their (approximately) 72-hour forecast:
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdfAs Rob already previewed, not a bad outlook. Currently 30% chance of weather prohibiting launch.
Synoptic Discussion: High pressure is currently dominating Florida and this will continue for the next several days. As a result, favorable weather conditions will persist for pre-launch and launch operations. Early mornings will have light winds with a chance of a coastal rainshower. Winds will be out of the east and increase through the afternoon hours with peak winds near 18 to 22 knots. Partly cloudy and generally dry conditions will dominate the afternoon hours. On launch day, low clouds will form and move into the area due to afternoon heating and convergent low-level flow. This will bring a chance of a low-cloud ceiling in the afternoon. Our primary concern for launch is a low-cloud ceiling. Weather remains similar for a 24-hour and 48-hour delay; however, winds on Sunday will increase enough to make crosswind conditions more of a concern for Return-to-Launch Site (RTLS) operations at the SLF.
Same caution as always: it's still a long ways from scheduled liftoff.
(It does sound like reasonable viewing conditions, though forecast also sounds like there would be a stiff sea-breeze.)
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#1
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2010 14:19
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First SMG forecast is published now, too:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0000
NOUS54 KWNJ 111415
OAVJSC
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 11 2010
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-132
EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1820Z
DATE: 05/14/10
RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT250 7 10010P17
TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA SCT030 BKN050 OVC110 7 30011P18
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SCT025 BKN070 BKN220 7 26009P13
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SCT040 BKN080 BKN200 7 23009P13
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC SCT030 SCT250 7 10010P17
PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 05/14/10 23Z TO 05/15/10 00Z
EDW SKC 7 22010P17
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... PRECIP
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... PRECIP
THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 12/1100Z
KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEZG
MRN...MORON SPAIN
ICAO ID IS LEMO
FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
ICAO ID IS LFMI
GARNER/VAN SPEYBROECK/WAHNER
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#2
by
cd-slam
on 11 May, 2010 15:11
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TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES
ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA SCT030 BKN050 OVC110 7 30011P18
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SCT025 BKN070 BKN220 7 26009P13
ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SCT040 BKN080 BKN200 7 23009P13
CHC SHRA WI 20NM
Oh good, does this confirm that Moron is GO for TAL now? Had seen some documentation about work being done on the runway.
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#3
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2010 15:14
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Oh good, does this confirm that Moron is GO for TAL now? Had seen some documentation about work being done on the runway.
Probably not in and of itself; we would have seen something if there'd been any problems. More of a 'no news is good news' thing.
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#4
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 11:39
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#5
by
Tourmaline
on 12 May, 2010 12:59
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Is volcanic ash likely to be a concern for TAL site weather?
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#6
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 13:03
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Is volcanic ash likely to be a concern for TAL site weather?
No effect on TAL site
availability -- the personnel should already be deployed. As for whether the ash has some effect on the weather at the TAL sites on launch day, hard to say, but not particularly relevant. The weather at the sites will either be go or no-go at the time the decision to proceed to liftoff is made, and only one TAL site needs to be go for launch.
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#7
by
ETEE
on 12 May, 2010 17:38
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Is volcanic ash likely to be a concern for TAL site weather?
The main concern for jet aircraft is the intake of particles into the engine, causing turbine blade damage.
A re-entering gliding orbiter would have different concerns, but with the plume at about 10-20,000ft, it would be damage to the aero surfaces that would be important.
BTW the plume was over Spain and Southern France a few days ago, so NASA must have looked at likely volcanic particle impacts.
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#8
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 17:45
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A re-entering gliding orbiter would have different concerns, but with the plume at about 10-20,000ft, it would be damage to the aero surfaces that would be important.
Haven't seen or heard that...is there a reference?
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#9
by
arkaska
on 12 May, 2010 18:08
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http://www.meteo.fr/vaac/einfo.htmlBeyond the potential for a major accident linked to engine failures, volcanic ash can be a considerable threat for other reasons. Ash is very hard and extremely abrasive and therefore erodes airframe, flight surfaces, and jet engine parts. The abrasion of the cockpit windows can lead to reduction or loss of pilots' forward visibility. As volcanic ash is generally too fine to be stopped by normal filtration systems, it can heavily contaminate the cooling system, as well as electrical and avionic units, rendering aircraft control difficult. Lastly, volcanic ash is often accompanied by a very corrosive aerosol of sulphuric acid, H2SO4, coming from oxidation and hydration of SO2 released during the eruption.
I guess the orbiter wouldn't face to much trouble landing even if a heavy ash-cloud is present but it will probably case damage to the orbiter and especially the TPS as they aren't design to handle material impact. So I guess the ash-cloud would have a grave impact on the turn-around time for the next mission. The higher speed of the shuttle will probably be problematic as well since the ash-particles will hit the shuttle with greater speed and force.
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#10
by
arkaska
on 12 May, 2010 18:22
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#11
by
psloss
on 12 May, 2010 18:35
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I guess the orbiter wouldn't face to much trouble landing even if a heavy ash-cloud is present but it will probably case damage to the orbiter and especially the TPS as they aren't design to handle material impact. So I guess the ash-cloud would have a grave impact on the turn-around time for the next mission. The higher speed of the shuttle will probably be problematic as well since the ash-particles will hit the shuttle with greater speed and force.
The question I'd have is how much of an apples-to-oranges comparison this is. I'm looking for a reference to some analysis of an orbiter approach and landing.
The note from today's pre-launch briefing made more sense -- if ash concentrations keep the weather reconnaissance aircraft on the ground, that could be a hypothetical issue. (Didn't sound like that was the case, though.)
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#12
by
rdale
on 12 May, 2010 19:31
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The ash is very fine and not likely to do any damage to the orbiter that I could imagine.
On a launch-related note, I'll throw a token 5% chance of launch weather violation.
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#13
by
robertross
on 12 May, 2010 22:19
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On a launch-related note, I'll throw a token 5% chance of launch weather violation.
fantastic. Appreciate the updates! (can only use my iTouch so I've been close to panic not knowing the latest, but guaranteed the best site has everything covered)
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#14
by
rdale
on 13 May, 2010 12:31
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Morning check shows nothing changing much in my outlook. Airmass is still quite dry (especially for Florida standards this time of year) so no precip threat. I understand USAF's slight concern about clouds, but nowhere near their 30% risk. I suppose maybe a 30% chance the clouds could increase enough to hit the "formal" criteria of concern, but nothing that the STA wouldn't be able to give a clearance for.
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#15
by
psloss
on 13 May, 2010 12:32
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Morning check shows nothing changing much in my outlook. Airmass is still quite dry (especially for Florida standards this time of year) so no precip threat. I understand USAF's slight concern about clouds, but nowhere near their 30% risk. I suppose maybe a 30% chance the clouds could increase enough to hit the "formal" criteria of concern, but nothing that the STA wouldn't be able to give a clearance for.
How's TAL weather looking to you?
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#16
by
rdale
on 13 May, 2010 12:41
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My TAL-ability has become more difficult with time, it seems more European agencies are charging for the "good" data (and my NSF salary doesn't quite cover
)
Moron still looks the best, I won't argue with NWS SMG's chance of rain for the other two but I don't forsee a washout so odds are at least one good site.
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#17
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 08:00
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SMG posted their launch forecast for the tanking meeting a few hours ago...don't see any major changes to the weather forecast. No weather violations at the CONUS sites or Moron, chance of violations at Zaragoza and Istres.
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#18
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 08:08
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Academic exercise on the tanking weather; as forecast, no issues.
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#19
by
psloss
on 14 May, 2010 11:50
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METAR observations in the last hour; still a long ways away:
KSC SLF:
KTTS 141055Z 12006KT 10SM FEW028 FEW170 SCT320 22/20 A3023 RMK SLP237 1CU /0/ 1CS 4CI /2/
MRN:
LEMO 141100Z 29009KT 260V360 9999 FEW032 18/06 Q1017 NOSIG
ZZA:
LEZG 141130Z 32018G28KT 290V350 9999 FEW040 SCT060 13/02 Q1011
FMI:
LFMI 141130Z AUTO 32010KT 290V350 9999NDV FEW027 OVC045 15/08 Q1007
A little windy at Zaragoza as of that report, but KSC and Moron still look good.
)