'Lower Bookend' Beyond Earth Orbit Crewed MissionsDefinition: mission designs using existing, near-existing and/or currently ongoing testing / in-development hardware to achieve,with Orion (or other crewed spacecraft), a given beyond-LEO mission goal by using a minimum of two launches (EELV or vehicles with similar payloads range) at the earliest and most cost-effective possible opportunity.
As noted on past posts, will try to share a few starting assumptions related with this thread’s topic so that:
- other forum participants are able to review the data
- some mission design and implementation constraints are shared
- comparisons with other past or future mission assumptions, documents, etc becomes slightly easier (at least a common ground / numerical starting point is provided for a specific scenario)
For this particular post will only focus on the following case: one launcher delivering an adapted Centaur SE which would act as Departure Stage for the rest of the mission components (crewed spacecraft and perhaps mission specific hardware would be delivered by the second launcher).
Note: on later occasion might focus the attention on Delta IV Heavy Upper Stage being used as EDS but, for the moment, starting then by a lower bookend case…Whenever possible will try to use existing or near-existing hardware and reference to source data. More aggressive assumptions are certainly possible (subjected to the impact on time line + cost, etc…). As a last introductory note, of course that readers are free to review this text but, if doing so, please try to do it with some ‘substance’.
I. Atlas V Centaur US (single engine, adapted for beyond LEO missions) 3500 kg : inert mass
20830 kg : prop. mass (at lift-off)
99200 N : thrust
450.5s : ISP
Notes:- Accordingly with
‘AtlasV Users Guide 2010 (rev11, March)’ inert mass for 5X1 Centaur SE is 2247 kg and, for AtlasV Heavy, such stage mass is given as 2316 kg; on the
‘Centaur Application to Robotic and Crewed Lunar Lander Evolution’ paper, the Centaur SE is 2500 kg: I’m using this latest value together with the addition of 800 kg for an ‘Extended Duration Mission Kit’ (also from public LM/ULA materials) in order to obtain what believe to be a better representation of a Centaur SE stage adapted for operation within 7 days of being launched (equal to say, a better representation for the kind of mission profiles being referenced in this thread…)
- An extra mass of ~200 kg is assumed on the stage’s ‘inert mass’ to account for a passive LIDS (similar to the hardware integrated on HST on STS-125): I’m not sure about the mass of such passive version (feel free to point for a source regarding that value)
- Will also share results calculated by using 450.5s ISP / 0.25% prop. left on departure stage versus 445s ISP / 1% prop. left on the stage, to compare with a more conservative dV budget calculation (and to calculate an average dV budget).
- Boil-off will be assumed at 0.2% / day of the initial LEO delivered prop. load (this assuming that the stage is fully delivered into LEO by the launch vehicle)
Sources:http://www.ulalaunch.com/site/pages/Education_PublishedPapers.shtmlhttp://www.ulalaunch.com/site/pages/Products_AtlasV.shtmlhttp://www.ulalaunch.com/site/docs/product_cards/guides/AtlasVUsersGuide2010.pdf II. Crewed Spacecraft & Mission HardwareII.a) OrionWill assume that some kind of BEO Orion implementation will happen in the future. Because I’m not sure about what is the most current state of Orion mass breakout will use past information / extrapolate eventual Orion mass breakouts for the intended mission profile.
Note: another option would be to look at this as a ‘black box’ (placeholder number) for a given total mass which could represent a generic crewed spacecraft alone (not necessarily Orion) or a crewed spacecraft + mission related module & payloads to, at least, calculate the dV provided by the modified Centaur SE.Orion CM (lunar / BEO variant) has been noted, on earlier iterations, at ~8t… up to ~8.7t up to perhaps 9.3t, at lift-off, for a crew of four astronauts living inside it for periods up to ~18 days (?) (when accounting for Constellation’s Lunar Mission profile and for maximum loiter times on LEO, LOI, TEI phases + when taking in consideration the length of the journey to/from Moon).
Orion SM: have seen estimations ranging from ~3.6t on very early iterations up to ~4.3t up to ~>4.5t (?)… Main prop. load of at least 8t… Will assume main engine at 326s ISP and from 0.25% up to 1% prop. left on the service Module (for FPR / Residuals, etc.)
As mentioned above, not very easy to have a clear picture about the current Orion state… Some of its mass growth and configuration changes are/were very closely related with the specific AresI integration, other part of the spacecraft mass growth is ‘natural’ of any development process…
What will present next are then some ‘options’ for several Orion mass breakouts / rough first order performance calculations (kept SM mass the same and varied SM prop for two CM cases)… This might hopefully be representative and conservative enough for a first order estimation (while assuming full LEO delivery of the vehicle)...
22.3t : 9.3t (CM) + 4.5t (SM) + 8.5t (SMprop) ~1515 m/s
21.8t : 9.3t (CM) + 4.5t (SM) + 8.0t (SMprop) ~1443 m/s
20.2t : 9.3t (CM) + 4.5t (SM) + 6.4t (SMprop) ~1203 m/s
21.7t : 8.7t (CM) + 4.5t (SM) + 8.5t (SMprop) ~1568 m/s
21.2t : 8.7t (CM) + 4.5t (SM) + 8.0t (SMprop) ~1495 m/s
20.2t : 8.7t (CM) + 4.5t (SM) + 7.0t (SMprop) ~1343 m/s
Note:- If the total mission scenario would take ~>18 days then the crew would probably have to be reduced to three or even to two astronauts, depending of extra mission requirements (such as desired contingency margins, mission hardware, etc)…
II.b) DragonNot sure about what would be the mass breakout for a lunar Dragon variant: perhaps some of the eventual mass growth could be achieved with crew number considerations and by carrying less cargo on the trunk. For the moment will share a first order estimation of a Dragon mass breakout for LEO, only to provide a starting point for eventual later brainstorms (feel free to correct data):
3250 kg : capsule mass
2500 kg : 7 (?) max. crew or less crew (3?, 4?) + some combination of internal / external cargo, etc
1290 kg : OMS / RCS prop (270s ISP?)
681 kg : Trunk
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7721 kg : Dragon mass (crewed flights)
Falcon9 assumes a payload of ~10450 kg into 200km, 28.8 inc. There seems to exist enough performance margin to either include a standard LAS design (released during ascent) or some kind of dual-duty abort system on the capsule itself (simulations needed!).
Assuming 270s ISP and ~1% left on the integrated SM tanks, the above numbers would result on a dV budget of ~479 m/s.
Only for reference, assuming a cargo only variant (2500 kg internal cargo + equipment, etc and ~2729 kg of external cargo carried on the trunk, for a total cargo of ~5.2t and a total spacecraft mass of ~10450 kg, the dV budget (again keeping 1% prop) could be ~345 m/s.
This all to write that in theory, a lunar Dragon with a crew of ~2 to ~3? astronauts could perhaps have enough resources to return from EML2 (using propulsive swing-by at the Moon): extra study needed about the mass / performance impact of the changes that would be required to transform the conceptual LEO Dragon into an even more conceptual Lunar Dragon.
II.c) Mission HardwareCrew size could also be strongly dependent on the amount of extra mission hardware that would need to be carried in this kind of ‘lower bookend’ missions…
Back to Orion mass breakout examples, the reader can, for example, look at the heavier crew command module and think about reduced crew size (2 astronauts?) and some of that 9.3t mass as being ‘mission hardware’ (either transported inside the CM – such as EVA suits and other tools - or attached to the SM exterior…).
Another option would be to assume an extra mission module… However, such extra module (plus its internal contents / external payloads) could well reach a mass from ~3t up to ~>4t (depending of mission needs)…
… Always depending of extra assumptions – and focusing for the moment only on Orion - I’m not sure for which mission design such extra module would be feasibly integrated IF assuming only two launches of existing EELV / EELV Heavy (or equivalent payload vehicles) and without assuming something else beyond the AtlasV Centaur SE modifications mentioned above… Yes, extra lift capability under the form of EELV upgrades could also be assumed but then all that starts adding to the timeline (I’m already assuming several adaptations to Centaur SE upper stage, its eventual integration on a launcher that might not be an AtlasV, development of Orion for BEO, etc)…
III. Mission Design Constraints (Launch)The mission would start with the launch of the crewed spacecraft or even the departure stage… A good number of extra simulation and related considerations would be needed to decide which payload would be launched first and to also better study injection targets for each payload vs a better definition of rendezvous procedures vs Earth Departure setup requirements…
If adding a mission module of ~3t up to ~>4t, such module could perhaps be launched (depending of mass and launch vehicle choice) together with a non crewed Orion vehicle: in such case, the delivery requirement could be something like ~>25.25t total spacecraft mass (not counting with adapters) into ~250 km altitude…
Will however focus on the ‘no-mission module case’ for this specific scenario where the departure stage would be a modified AtlasV SE US: as roughly represented above, the
Orion could then have a lift-off mass of ~22t for an average dV of ~1500m/s or so...
The
AtlasV Centaur SE based departure stage could have a total mass of ~24.33t…
Both these payload targets seem to be feasible (need to double-check / simulation work needed) for Delta IV Heavy (which in this time frame would use RS-68A): it would perhaps require dual launch within up to ~5 days (extra study needed, have somewhere a pdf about AresI+V regarding this issue of launch order vs lunar mission). If using dual Delta IV Heavy, one of them would need Human Rated Kit (as well related facilities adaptations).
Another Heavy vehicle option (perhaps AtlasV Heavy… or Falcon9 Heavy!, or AresI!... although AresI injection would be sub-orbital and require a few extra considerations, etc) or some other EELV upgraded iteration could also be assumed (which, depending of specific assumption, would also add to development and/or timeline and/or cost)…
Please remember that I’m still only talking here about an entry level for lower bookend type of missions. This all needs to be taken in consideration…
Yet another ‘nearer-time’ alternative could be to assume Delta IV Heavy launching the AtlasV upper stage (which poses its own integration challenges), something like an AtlasV 552 launching ~21t Orion with no crew (the dual Centaur would have to be fielded…) and ‘something else’ (not many options left, really...) launching the crew… although this would become a 3 launch scenario with things starting to complicate… near-ISS space could also be used as a stationary / assembly point for the crew to wait for the Earth Departure Stack docking but that would introduce yet another layer of complications for this type of ‘lower bookend’ missions... better to avoid that for this specific case.
Given all the constraints, not sure when even this kind of lower bookend mission would be possible… maybe I’m being pessimist…
Summing up, would perhaps then baseline two launches of the heaviest EELV (or similar class) possible vehicles available at the date: one perhaps launching EDS alone, the other – human rated - launching the crewed spacecraft. Considerations about which launch would be first or about eventual mission module would need a much better definition of mission requirements, mission hardware and specific simulation work. III. Mission Design Constraints (dV budgets)Regarding the dV budget, under what have assumed:
3500 kg : AtlasV Centaur SE US + Kit + Passive LIDS
20538 kg : Centaur main prop. load (after 7 days @ ~0.2% boil-off / day)
20900 kg : Orion: 9.3t (CM+mission hardware?) + 4.5t (SM) + 7.1t (SMprop, after rendezvous, initial load would be ~>8t, simulation needed)
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44938 kg : total mass at start of departure burn
Depending of how math is made:
dV1 (Centaur): ~2688 m/s (450.5s ISP / ~0.25% prop. left)
dV1 (Centaur): ~2661 m/s (450.5s ISP / ~1.00% prop. left)
dV1 (Centaur): ~2656 m/s (445s ISP / ~0.25% prop. left)
dV1 (Centaur): ~2629 m/s (445 ISP / ~1.00% prop. left)
dv2 (Orion): ~1311 m/s to 1322 m/s (depending of FPR, etc)
This all gives about ~3975 m/s total dV budget (in average) for the above Centaur SE + Orion assumptions (two launches).
III.a) Performance Comments- Such kind of average dV estimation and ~18 day journey duration could be compatible with a 3 astronauts crew delivery into EML2 and return from there:
~1 x 3148.5 m/s : TLI (shared by Centaur SE + Orion)
+2 x 184.1 m/s : propulsive swing-by at the Moon (In/Out)
+2 x 147.5 m/s : EML2 (In/Out)
(with ~163 m/s available for MCC, station keeping)…
Source: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=1337.msg18213#msg18213
(RE: An Alternative Lunar Architecture)It would be better if the crew could have ‘something’ waiting for them at EML2, else they would arrive there only to return on the next hours (and if that would be the mission objective perhaps a simpler lunar fly-by profile would be better)
- Such kind of ~3975 m/s dV and more than 18 day mission having EML2 (or EML1, also using swing-by, see pdf below) could perhaps also be achieved by a reduced crew of just two astronauts while, at the same time, perhaps also carrying a little of extra mission specific payload (IF the goal of the mission would be to service something at EML2, for example): not sure however how much payload would be feasible (depending of assumptions for the crewed spacecraft, etc).
On my humble opinion and under my clumsy first order considerations, little else could perhaps be assumed (do not see great opportunities for reaching a BEO object) unless going for more capable launch vehicles and/or more capable propulsion stage assumptions and/or optimized spacecraft assumptions and/or depots and/or using specific date geometries together with extra trajectory tweaks for intended mission objectives…
… Each or several groups of those extra assumptions would need to be taken in account in order to better compare implementation constraints, but all that would add to the time line of the ‘simplest’ case that have tried to very preliminarily study and share here (extra study, assumptions refinement, simulation work and more specific design assumptions would be needed).
So, summing up, have tried to share some considerations about:- AtlasV Centaur SE (with kit + passive LIDS) fully delivered into LEO
- Orion (also fully delivered into LEO) launched within ~5 days or so and rendezvous, within ~2 days, with departure stage
- departure dV provided by upper stage burn + Orion undocking and making the final commitment for such burn
- Orion making rest of middle course correction / main burns
- mission duration of ~18 days for crew of 3?
- mission duration of ~>18 days for crew of 2? (+ X? payload?)
III.b) Related readings and final comments:http://servicingstudy.gsfc.nasa.gov/presentations_final/day2/Harley_Thronson/Thronson_servicing_workshop.pdf(
http://servicingstudy.gsfc.nasa.gov/workshop_1_presentations.htm)
DOES THE NASA CONSTELLATION ARCHITECTURE OFFER OPPORTUNITIES TO ACHIEVE SPACE SCIENCE GOALS IN SPACE?http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20080032732_2008031420.pdf(IAC-08-A5.3.6)
A few differences on the
IAC-08-A5.3.6 pdf (versus what I have written above) are:
- No boil-off assumed? (absence of long duration kit on Centaur?)
- Quick (next orbit?) back-to-back launch of dual AresI from both KSC pads 39 (instead of assuming other launch vehicles) + rendezvous within hours (instead of allowing for up to ~5 days difference between launches, from the moment the Centaur would be launched?)
Comment: If using aggressive mission components delivery, the crewed spacecraft (perhaps launched first into a lower orbit) could rendezvous within hours with the departure stage but that does not leave much margin for unexpected events…
… On another hand if using slightly less aggressive rendezvous assumptions, the departure stage would need addition of extra boil-off reduction kit (probably similar to what I have assumed) and rendezvous time line of mission components could be a little more relaxed although the kit assumption would have impact on how early such boil-off reduction kit would be available for operational use… as far as I’m aware, an early sun shield demo is expected for ~2011 (that would be only one component of the kit).
- Inert mass for Centaur SE of ~1.8t (I have used ~2.5t for a modified Centaur SE + 800 kg Kit)
- Lower Orion mass breakouts (CM + SM) than what I have assumed: it would be really interesting to have an update regarding Orion status, despite all the indefinition we are experimenting nowadays…
- ~>2.7t airlock module (the differences on Centaur assumptions + CM + SM almost cover the minimum module mass range): on the IAC-08-A5.3.6 paper the AresI also seems to be defined as a ~>26t payload vehicle
- Different dV calculation methods and trajectory assumptions: haven’t fully verified those. On my calculations tried to keep some FPR / Residuals on departure stage, SM, etc, not sure if that was the case on the pdf. This post is already long enough (!!!): feel free to define ground rules, compare and refine estimations and methods.
Real Final Comments:Quick note about assuming the crewed spacecraft with a total mass of ~15t instead: this could allow the Centaur to make full TLI. Such crewed spacecraft could look like an Orion CM with a smaller SM or like a Shenzhou with larger SM or with an extra mini-stage (or, more relevant, Lunar Dragon with some kind of SM connected to the trunk: mission capability would depend of assumptions).
To end, could also write a similar preliminary analysis / references about a possible brainstorm 'next level' (using / adapting DeltaIV Heavy Upper Stage, based on some pdf / past notes / simulation work / math) but that text could probably reach a point where it would be 'simply' better to start assuming or a new stage development or heavier lift capability than the one expected for Delta IV Heavy (or similar EELV-class) or both those changes and/or even several other extra assumptions...
So, will save forum space and, at least for now, post just this ‘lower bookend’ case where the Departure Stage would be an adapted AtlasV Centaur SE... At the same time provided a few related links / references and some numbers about what could be the mass breakout of such adapted stage, Orion, Dragon, etc which might provide a good starting point if someone else wishes to further refine calculations and mission design / implementation constraints for this kind of lower bookend cases.
Thanks,
António
PS: this was a loooong post: my apologies in advance for any less clear text / math / errors and/or typos (wrote this in pieces and then did a bit of intensive final copy+paste)