Armadillo Aerospace Update Thread

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Carmack tweeted a bit of clarity to his new role at Oculus among his other jobs, saying, "My time division is now Oculus over Id over Armadillo. Busy busy busy!"

Which sadly means no work on AA for probably a couple of years or more. As he seems more passionate about VR than rockets now, I wonder if he'll ever seriously return to AA?

[QuantumG]

The changes away from VTVL were driven by the requirement of actually flying something for a customer. The customer wants altitude and that's how you get it. Masten, on the other hand, went and found a customer who wanted the vehicles they actually build (they're flying Mars reentry trajectory simulations for JPL, for anyone who didn't know).
 

[Lurker Steve]

, waiting for either Carmack to get free time and money or "someone with a few million dollars who wants to build rockets".

Oh, but some very wise people here were saying that Carmack had "all the money he wanted".

and I stand by it. That's why he's not out raising money. Carmack don't work that way. If it can't be done with his out-of-pocket he simply doesn't do it. AA is being slow walked now because Carmack has come to the startling conclusion that this rocket stuff *really is hard*.

I would think that if it was my money involved in the project, I would want to share in the fun. Why contribute millions of dollars, just so someone else can have fun with rockets ?

Now that I know Armadillo was run by the guy from ID, I can see why he's in no rush.

[Robotbeat]

I liked the approach that they were doing.

It's possible Armadillo will rise again. I bet Carmack will have some other idea he wants to try out eventually.

[Paul Adams]

Going out on a limb here - would this be a good crowd soured funding project? If he has only spent $2,000,000 to date, what could be done with another $2,000,000?

How many on NSF would be willing to donate $30 - $100?

Apologies if this has been raised previously.

[R7]

Another way to get it would have been by clustering their VTVL modules together.  And that was the way they originally intended to deal with the need for greater delta-v.

Eventually people (re)discover the drag, and reasons why sleek pointy things work best.

[Lars_J]

Another way to get it would have been by clustering their VTVL modules together.  And that was the way they originally intended to deal with the need for greater delta-v.

Eventually people (re)discover the drag, and reasons why sleek pointy things work best.

Sure... But as grasshopper shows - tall, thin, and pointy rockets can be VTVL too. I'm surprised they abandoned it, when the software for VTVL control seemed to be a significant part of Carmacks passion.

[Moe Grills]

Another way to get it would have been by clustering their VTVL modules together.  And that was the way they originally intended to deal with the need for greater delta-v.

Eventually people (re)discover the drag, and reasons why sleek pointy things work best.

Sure... But as grasshopper shows - tall, thin, and pointy rockets can be VTVL too. I'm surprised they abandoned it, when the software for VTVL control seemed to be a significant part of Carmacks passion.

I still think space-gliders (VLOHL) beat the hell out of any VTOVL craft
of the same mass and size as far as the theoretical number of passengers that can be lofted into space is concerned.

[Lars_J]

What does that have anything to do with Armadillo?

[savuporo]

If he has only spent $2,000,000 to date,

He has spent far more ( and also had some revenue )
The estimated figures can be found in the thread

[KelvinZero]

When people say he had a bad business model, well yeah, but how much market is there for this sort of thing anyway? four years ago it might have looked different. My first though was, another victim of congress axing Obama's tech development plan. I just don't think a market for lunar landers exists outside of that.

If an obvious market existed I would feel much better, because the date at which regular commercial access to the moon arrived would be on the way and the only question affected by business competence would be which company got the lions share of this market. I don't feel that at all.

[QuantumG]

Customers are where you find you them.

[Moe Grills]

When people say he had a bad business model, well yeah, but how much market is there for this sort of thing anyway? four years ago it might have looked different. My first though was, another victim of congress axing Obama's tech development plan. I just don't think a market for lunar landers exists outside of that.

First: Let's give credit to Mr. Carmack for actually building rocket hardware, not vaporware.
Second: And he actually send up some rockets close to the Karman Line; how many private individuals and corporations have done that over 60 years? Did you say, not many?

Also, don't blame government for AA's collapse
AA courageously took financial and engineering risks, and you know the rest. Some gotta win, some gotta lose. Cry the blues.

Remember, Mr. Carmack started this effort when the XPrize was offered
and eventually won by his rival, Mr Rutan and company.
 

[Moe Grills]

What does that have anything to do with Armadillo?

VTVL, or VTOVL?
It's a dead-end technology for this one-gee planet. I don't know why Mr. Carmack pursued that VTVL/VTOVL path when space gliders are the way to go, either for suborbital
or orbital flights for as many passengers as you can cram into one of them.
I'm exaggerating a little with the word 'cram'.
See if you have a sense of humor.

[R7]

I don't know why Mr. Carmack pursued that VTVL/VTOVL path when space gliders are the way to go

Perhaps because he was pursuing the prize purse of Lunar Lander Challenge?

[Lars_J]

What does that have anything to do with Armadillo?

VTVL, or VTOVL?
It's a dead-end technology for this one-gee planet. I don't know why Mr. Carmack pursued that VTVL/VTOVL path when space gliders are the way to go, either for suborbital
or orbital flights for as many passengers as you can cram into one of them.
I'm exaggerating a little with the word 'cram'.
See if you have a sense of humor.

I have a sense of humor... But I fail to appreciate the comedy in your posts. What does a glider have to do with Armadillo? Did I miss their memo about building a glider? And if not, what makes your comment amusing despite its off topic-ness?

[KelvinZero]

First: Let's give credit to Mr. Carmack for actually building rocket hardware, not vaporware.
Second: And he actually send up some rockets close to the Karman Line; how many private individuals and corporations have done that over 60 years? Did you say, not many?

Also, don't blame government for AA's collapse
AA courageously took financial and engineering risks, and you know the rest. Some gotta win, some gotta lose. Cry the blues.

Remember, Mr. Carmack started this effort when the XPrize was offered
and eventually won by his rival, Mr Rutan and company.

This is true, and what QuantumG said is also true. Thing is I want to see someone landing stuff on the moon. Im not confident customers are there to find just yet and Im not confident that Armadillo failing simply changes the name of the group that will begin regular landings there.

The issue of whether we should have a NASA that uses tax payers money is wider than this thread. I think that if the direction taken with the lunar lander challenges had been continued we could have got these regular landings at a moderate cost compared to other NASA expenditures and the spaceflight industry today would be more interesting than it is.

[tobi453]

Here's my personal assessment: in my opinion the problem was that they didn't recognize the potential of a pump in the design. Yes a rocket engine with pump is much more complex, but even more powerful. Apart from the isp, it is the pump that makes liquids so much more powerful compared to solids or hybrids. With a pressure fed design they couldn't really separate themselves from sounding rockets with solids. There are sounding rockets much more powerful out there than STIG. They can reach 1000km with one stage and are not that expensive.

So which "new space" companies in the rocket business have a pump in their design? SpaceX and XCOR.

My bet is that those have a very promising future.

[mr. mark]

I think it would have been very hard for Armadillo's STIG suborbital research rocket to close a business case around it. Has anyone crunched the numbers say a STIG versus a UP aerospace research rocket. Not sure the numbers  would justify reuse.

[Robotbeat]

What does that have anything to do with Armadillo?

VTVL, or VTOVL?
It's a dead-end technology for this one-gee planet. I don't know why Mr. Carmack pursued that VTVL/VTOVL path when space gliders are the way to go, either for suborbital
or orbital flights for as many passengers as you can cram into one of them.
I'm exaggerating a little with the word 'cram'.
See if you have a sense of humor.

Good one.





Carmack is very close to being vindicated in his choice of VTVL for reusable launch vehicle. Give it a year or two for SpaceX's first stage vertical landing or, should SpaceX fail, five (for Blue Origin).