Armadillo Aerospace Update Thread

[savuporo]

Which is what I said! savuporo was wondering why Armadillo hasn't quadrupled their funding and got things moving faster.. his conclusion that it is a lack of funding is wrong. Their saga is now over 13 years old because they're trying to crack a tough nut and so far they haven't done it.

I didnt conclude that they lack funding. I suggested that funding constraints DO force them into suboptimal decisions sometimes, as they do for everyone else. The fact that STIG-B doesnt have a spare ready to go indicated that they dont have "all the money they want".

I recall a quote where JC stated the approximate cost of their vehicles has jumped from a BMW to Ferrari, which makes them much more cautious about lithobraking or somesuch, but i can't find a link right now.

EDIT: from aRocket

John Carmack
3/28/11

Things are looking good for an attempt at flying over 100,000’ this weekend with our big tube rocket.
 
For reasons that still aren’t exactly clear to me, this vehicle took longer to build than any of our previous ones.  With all the full time salaries, that also makes it the most expensive vehicle we have made.  I have said that watching one of our serial-produced mods crash from an altitude flight is “like watching a BMW fall out of the sky”.   Losing this vehicle will be more like planting a Ferrari.  A turbo Ferrari. Realistically, it is almost inevitable.  If we get a successful first flight, everything will work out fine, but I imagine the mood in the shop will be pretty grim while building up a new version of this vehicle if all we got out of the previous one was a couple hover tests and a crash.
 
Despite being extremely upset with how long it took us to get to flight-ready, I find myself now wishing we had another week to run additional tests, but we have already postponed launch once at Spaceport America, and we really should take our shot now.
 
If we get the vehicle back and it performs as expected, we should be able to take it over 100km by upgrading various parts of the vehicle in a couple months.
 
John Carmack

[QuantumG]

The fact that STIG-B doesnt have a spare ready to go indicated that they dont have "all the money they want".

Why would you have a spare ready to go on a research vehicle?

They're only flying it to learn how hard it is to fly.

Your thesis is wrong.

[savuporo]

Why would you have a spare ready to go on a research vehicle?

To not stall your research project in the event of inevitable mishap, adjust, fix the problem and move on. Members of Armadillo team, and other teams building experimental vehicles have all stated on numerous occasions that they really would prefer to have multiple copies of flight hardware plus a healthy stock of long lead parts.
Probably every hobbyists building actual hardware will tell you the same, it's pretty obvious to me as i am letting magic smoke out of various electronics components myself on a regular basis and im not going to argue this further with you.

[Robotbeat]

The fact that STIG-B doesnt have a spare ready to go indicated that they dont have "all the money they want".

Why would you have a spare ready to go on a research vehicle?

They're only flying it to learn how hard it is to fly.

Your thesis is wrong.

So is yours. They've got paying customers to fly payloads on STIG variants. It's not just research. (And that's probably a good thing, as it keeps them a little more focused.)

[QuantumG]

They've got paying customers to fly payloads on STIG variants. It's not just research. (And that's probably a good thing, as it keeps them a little more focused.)

They customers know what they're buying.

Building two of a prototype is a waste. You'd only do it if time was more important to you than money.

[savuporo]

Another recent interesting tidbit from aRocket was this:

Total expenditures on Armadillo over the last twelve years are nearly $10 million -- almost eight figures.  I think I could orbit something for less than another $10 million, but the credibility on that should be rather low, considering I thought that Stig would be successfully flying payloads after $2 million in development costs.

Saying you could build a nanosat launcher for $10 million is not certifiably insane, but it is very aggressive, and very likely to fail.  Thinking you can do it for less than $1 million is out of touch with reality.

John Carmack

[savuporo]

Building two of a prototype is a waste. You'd only do it if time was more important to you than money.

I dont think Neil Milburn was reading what internet quarterbacks are posting on various forums, but here you go:
http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home/News?news_id=430

The game plan moving forward is to build a mini fleet of at least three or possibly more STIG vehicles. This will allow us to campaign the STIG vehicle for commercial scientific payloads and even suffer some damage or loss of vehicle without having to halt the campaign for any considerable period of time. There will also be some modest reductions in vehicle costs by buying some components in quantity and simply by batch production.

[QuantumG]

Building two of a prototype is a waste. You'd only do it if time was more important to you than money.

I dont think Neil Milburn was reading what internet quarterbacks are posting on various forums, but here you go:
http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home/News?news_id=430

The game plan moving forward is to build a mini fleet of at least three or possibly more STIG vehicles. This will allow us to campaign the STIG vehicle for commercial scientific payloads and even suffer some damage or loss of vehicle without having to halt the campaign for any considerable period of time. There will also be some modest reductions in vehicle costs by buying some components in quantity and simply by batch production.

Yes, exactly. I don't know how I can make this more clear: once they work out the kinks they intend to use this vehicle line for the Flight Opportunities Program and other commercial flights, but they haven't done that yet. There is no intention to build multiple prototype vehicles of an identical design in order to do more testing faster, which was (somehow) savuporo's argument for why Armadillo needs more money.

[savuporo]

There is no intention to build multiple prototype vehicles of an identical design in order to do more testing faster

Thats exactly their stated intent, in the paragraph above.

[QuantumG]

There is no intention to build multiple prototype vehicles of an identical design in order to do more testing faster

Thats exactly their stated intent, in the paragraph above.

Reading comprehension.. get some.

[Robotbeat]

They said they wished they had built more copies of STIG already, including the "prototype" one they just flew (and crashed).

[Robotbeat]

Once they get the kinks out, they'll only need one...

[QuantumG]

If you're going to claim they said something, quote it, otherwise you're just making it up.

[Robotbeat]

If you're going to claim they said something, quote it, otherwise you're just making it up.

I read it on ARocket. Can't link to it. I'm not even sure I can quote it, as it isn't public (you have to join the list to even see the archive). And I certainly am not going to look through hundreds of emails to "prove someone is wrong on the internet." You don't have to believe me, but that's what I read.

[QuantumG]

I read it on ARocket. Can't link to it.

Tell me the date and who was speaking.

And I certainly am not going to look through hundreds of emails to "prove someone is wrong on the internet." You don't have to believe me, but that's what I read.

No I don't.

If you're not willing to back up your statements of fact with evidence, just keep quiet.

[Lars_J]

The latest Armadillo news update has something to say about the recent discussion:

http://www.armadilloaerospace.com/n.x/Armadillo/Home/News?news_id=430

The game plan moving forward is to build a mini fleet of at least three or possibly more STIG vehicles. This will allow us to campaign the STIG vehicle for commercial scientific payloads and even suffer some damage or loss of vehicle without having to halt the campaign for any considerable period of time. There will also be some modest reductions in vehicle costs by buying some components in quantity and simply by batch production. The one other major change that we are considering for STIG is to increase propellant tank sizes to offset the mass creep experienced with STIG B. This simple change, potentially with an increase in helium tank capacity, will allow the next generation of STIG vehicles to readily reach space with substantially larger payloads.

[QuantumG]

Already quoted. Did you even read the thread before posting?

[Lars_J]

Already quoted. Did you even read the thread before posting?

Apparently not! And are people always so grumpy down in Aussie-land? 

[Robotbeat]

I read it on ARocket. Can't link to it.

Tell me the date and who was speaking.

And I certainly am not going to look through hundreds of emails to "prove someone is wrong on the internet." You don't have to believe me, but that's what I read.

No I don't.

If you're not willing to back up your statements of fact with evidence, just keep quiet.

It was Carmack relatively recently (within the last month). Going off of memory.

[QuantumG]

Already quoted. Did you even read the thread before posting?

Apparently not! And are people always so grumpy down in Aussie-land? 

Sorry Lars_J. I shouldn't snap at you.

Allow me to remind myself of some famous advice:

I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken! - Oliver Cromwell

So what's the argument here?

Im surprised that noone has approached Armadillo yet with a proposal to quadruple their funding to get things moving faster. Their saga is now over 13 years old.

It seems like with a bit of a funding boost they could make more bold choices like following the rule of always building 2.5x ( 2 whole, plus a set of critical spares ) flight hardware units and not getting stalled.

I think savuporo is using terrible logic because, frankly, I think making two vehicles only to discover that it has a fatal design flaw or two - especially when you expect it will have a fatal design flaw or two because you're only just learning how to make reusable launch vehicles - is a big waste of money. But what if I'm wrong?

savuporo thinks I am. He thinks Armadillo would love to make multiple vehicles and they need more funding to do it. He presents evidence of this, which is the same quote you provided Lars_J.

The game plan moving forward is to build a mini fleet of at least three or possibly more STIG vehicles. This will allow us to campaign the STIG vehicle for commercial scientific payloads and even suffer some damage or loss of vehicle without having to halt the campaign for any considerable period of time. There will also be some modest reductions in vehicle costs by buying some components in quantity and simply by batch production. The one other major change that we are considering for STIG is to increase propellant tank sizes to offset the mass creep experienced with STIG B. This simple change, potentially with an increase in helium tank capacity, will allow the next generation of STIG vehicles to readily reach space with substantially larger payloads. -

I think Neil Milburn is actually talking about the game plan for the commercial campaign after they get a successful space shot and vehicle recovery. So this quote doesn't validate savuporo's argument that Armadillo would love to be building multiple prototype vehicles to avoid "getting stalled".  But what if I'm wrong?

That would mean Armadillo has heeded savuporo's sage advice and is now "following the rule of always building 2.5x". In fact, they're building more than 2.5x! But that also means they have the funding to do that, right now. As I said:

Heh. John Carmack has all the money he wants. Armadillo is progressing at the pace he dictates.

I don't think I'm wrong, but by thinking it possible I've shown that savuporo has to be either way.