Author Topic: Falcon 1 - Post Failure thread (Read 134933 times)

JesseD · « **Reply #220 on:** 03/28/2006 10:19 pm »

heh! If they launch an F9 from the same launch site as they did last week, they'll burn off half the trees on the island!!!!

Seriously, I wonder if they did have any problems with fire on the last launch. The webcast certainly showed a lot of fire and dirt being tossed around, and the big picture on the SpaceX home page shows a huge cloud of (I assume) dust the launch kicked up.

-Jesse

aero313 · « **Reply #221 on:** 03/28/2006 10:27 pm »

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JesseD - 28/3/2006 5:19 PM

and the big picture on the SpaceX home page shows a huge cloud of (I assume) dust the launch kicked up.

Actually that's mainly steam. They used a crude water suppression system. There were a lot of rocks kicked up, but that's not unusual.

amon · « **Reply #222 on:** 03/28/2006 11:00 pm »

Comparing an image not long before the engine event, I would say the track is from the center of the island in about the 4'o'clock direction on Braddocks photo of the island. It looks well out to sea before the sideways plume, so I think when someone said it was on the reef, they did not mean as close as some of you are assuming... the whole island and the waters around it are a reef. I'll bet for impact a mile or more offshore.

Hmm. I got a rotation error here. May still be over the island in the last image I see. It's very hard to tell, even with the landmarks lined up.

DaveS · « **Reply #223 on:** 03/28/2006 11:09 pm »

The dead reef that the Falcon landed was only 250 ft(75 m) from the launch pad, so it didn't get very far.

amon · « **Reply #224 on:** 03/28/2006 11:31 pm »

I take it no new footage has been released yet?

blueguitarbob · « **Reply #225 on:** 03/29/2006 04:32 am »

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braddock - 28/3/2006 3:57 PM

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blueguitarbob - 28/3/2006 2:04 PM
From the video, it looks like the launch pad is not at the northern end of the island, so I'd guess either option 1 or 4. Also in appendix B of the report, option 4 is referred to many times as the "preferred alternative". I'm assuming that the layout is option 4.

I haven't looked at the environmental report yet, but maybe this aerial of Omelek helps. This photo never made the SpaceX web site, but we ran it in a story last year.

I'm not sure you could lay three Falcon 9's end to end across that tiny island, I don't know how they are going to launch Falcon 9 from there.

Ok, so they went with "none of the above". The aerial photo shows that both the office and the launch control van are in different locations than in options 1 or 4. I guess they wanted the sleeping quarters as close to the bathrooms as possible. Everything else looks the same as #1.

Well, I'm glad that important piece of data is settled... man that place is small.

One other interesting (and extremely trivial) slice of info from the environmental report: the red team evacuates before the launch by _motorboat_ to Meck. During the countdown, I assumed helo... and I couldn't figure out why there was such a time lag between the authorization of the evac and their arrival on Meck. Motorboat. It makes sense, seeing how close the helo pad is to the GSE. They also get back on Omelek post-launch the same way, for close out...

mapson · « **Reply #226 on:** 03/29/2006 04:34 pm »

Where is the environmental impact study that everybody keeps talking about. I have gone back and re-read every entry in this thread and cannot find it.
Thanks

Crispy · « **Reply #227 on:** 03/29/2006 05:14 pm »

All this talk of tiny islands and boating around to get clear of the pad makes me even more jealous of the spacex guys out there. It must be one hell of a holiday. Nice weather, spot of diving, maybe go for a fish and then on the weekend launch a rocket

I could live a life like that...

braddock · « **Reply #228 on:** 03/29/2006 07:25 pm »

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mapson - 29/3/2006 11:34 AM
Where is the environmental impact study that everybody keeps talking about. I have gone back and re-read every entry in this thread and cannot find it.

Welcome to the site. You must have missed it, it was on page 14 in the post by hyper_snyper with the old pictures of the Falcon 1.
Link: http://www.smdcen.us/pubdocs/files/spacex_final_ea_signed_fnsi_13dec04.pdf

vf500f85 · « **Reply #229 on:** 03/29/2006 07:32 pm »

Not, all rsb need thermal blankets necessarily.

The Orbital OSP program uses GFE (government furnished equipment) motors, in this case decommissioned icbm motors. The optimal performance temp range for these motors is narrow since it was normally launched from a silo environement which is why you need a thermal blanket.

Later

braddock · « **Reply #230 on:** 03/29/2006 08:08 pm »

Just for fun, I though I'd see what a Falcon 9-S9 heavy would look like on that island, using the 40' shipping containers for approximate scale...if anything I think I made it too small. Not much room to maneuver there.

Maverick · « **Reply #231 on:** 03/29/2006 09:00 pm »

Heh. They'd also need a huge amount of extra propellant stored on the island too>?

dmc6960 · « **Reply #232 on:** 03/29/2006 09:33 pm »

Great picture putting the F9 on there! Any word yet on getting more videos and photos of the launch last week?

Damon Hill · « **Reply #233 on:** 03/29/2006 11:15 pm »

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Maverick - 29/3/2006 3:00 PM

Heh. They'd also need a huge amount of extra propellant stored on the island too>?

Looks like they'd need to have a barge or two to haul in and store propellant, maybe at
the landing lagoon? Otherwise a tank farm. Looks a bit tight and awkward on that little
flyspeck of an island.

blueguitarbob · « **Reply #234 on:** 03/30/2006 12:41 am »

In another thread (page 3, question 6) Elon clarified that SpaceX _is_ planning on Falcon 9 flights from Kwaj. This was in January of this year, so that's pretty recent info. He's a pretty straightforward guy, though... so I'd assume there is a plan.

Now, it seems completely insane to launch anything larger than Falcon 1 from Omelek. Besides, the environmental impact report covering the use of Omelek only discussed Falcon 1. If you read the _extensive_ discussion regarding the use of the island, it is obvious that more extensive "modification" of the island (ie, paving it over) is a non-starter. The Fish and Wildlife Service wanted them to re-use existing building sites, and build a fence across the island so that nobody could wander into the forest on the north side to "collect or molest the wildlife", for goodness sakes. As the model of the F9 superimposed on the aerial photo shows, they are _at least_ going to need to knock down a few trees just to turn the thing around. That's not covered by this application, and the various agencies will certainly require another review before expanding the facilities at Omelek, if even technically possible.

There are other islands in Kwaj besides Omelek, no? To me, the facilities on Omelek have a temporary look to them. They built just enough there to handle Falcon 1, and just barely. My guess is that the SpaceX strategy is to get to orbit and prove their concepts, then -- after a round of public financing -- they build a bigger launch site elsewhere in the atoll. I don't know enough about Kwaj to speculate on location. Anybody?

By the way, I would imagine the environmental scrutiny will be more intense in the future for SpaceX, post-failure. The report is filled with fussy little regulations regarding the use of Omelek for launch operations, such as only using freshwater for firefighting operations to avoid the buildup of salts in island soils. SpaceX just crashed a 60,000 pound vehicle onto a coral reef a couple hundred feet offshore, probably containing a nearly-full propellant load. That's gotta be a horrible mess; a worst-case, serious environmental event for Omelek. The excess buildup of salts and molestation of island fauna looks pretty small by comparison. I'm pretty sure that the next time SpaceX is up for environmental approval, the heat is going to be higher. Since I used to be involved with this, I would be _very_ interested in a story regarding the environmental cleanup of the crash.

braddock · « **Reply #235 on:** 03/30/2006 03:14 am »

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blueguitarbob - 29/3/2006 7:41 PM
There are other islands in Kwaj besides Omelek, no? To me, the facilities on Omelek have a temporary look to them.

I like your analysis.

When Elon first said Falcon 9 launches for Kwaj back in that Q&A piece we did in January, I was sure he had mis-understood the question, and asked for and got confirmation. But, you are very right...he never said OMELEK.

The other, perhaps more realistic, option is Cape Canaveral.

Gwynn Shotwell (SpaceX): "I will guarantee that we will go to the Cape. That isn't a question of if, that is a question of when. Something pretty dramatic would have to happen for us not to build a site there." (SpaceX press call on Friday)

blueguitarbob · « **Reply #236 on:** 03/30/2006 05:16 am »

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braddock - 29/3/2006 9:14 PM

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blueguitarbob - 29/3/2006 7:41 PM
There are other islands in Kwaj besides Omelek, no? To me, the facilities on Omelek have a temporary look to them.

When Elon first said Falcon 9 launches for Kwaj back in that Q&A piece we did in January, I was sure he had mis-understood the question, and asked for and got confirmation. But, you are very right...he never said OMELEK.

The other, perhaps more realistic, option is Cape Canaveral.

Although I'm sure that SpaceX will use the Cape eventually, I think that they are now in the position where they have to build a major site at Kwaj, for all their launch vehicles. Last week's failure sealed their fate.

No matter how many simulations and static tests they do, regulatory officials will always remember how Falcon 1 failed: crashing intact, with a load of propellant, a few hundred feet downrange. Although a coral reef was probably damaged, it happened at a remote site in the middle of the ocean, away from population and the media. After the failure, there was sadness over the lost opportunity, loss of the payload; it was disappointing, but not tragic. The only people who really knew about it were a few thousand rocket geeks (myself included). However, at any launch location in the states, last week's failure would have been a horrendous public relations disaster, with possible loss of life. Cable would be showing video 24/7, calling for Elon's head. The company might have folded. When you think about it, its a miracle for SpaceX that their first flight was forced to launch at Omelek. Its the best place for them, at this stage in development.

SpaceX just doesn't have the resources to conduct the testing that it would take to guarantee a high probability of success at first flight, like NASA does. They have to try it for real, and correct after failure. That works, of course, but it's rather hard on the people around the launch pad. Elon's been saying this since day one, but I don't think the range safety implications sunk in. Well, they are pretty obvious now. No CYA-minded regulator is going to allow Falcon 1, 5, or 9 to fly on their range until they have a decent number of launches under their belt. If I were in their shoes, I can't say that I would take the risk, either.

Since Falcon 5 and 9 are significantly different from Falcon 1, it won't be sufficient for SpaceX to fly a few successful F1 missions out of Omelek as a demonstration. Maybe if Falcon 1 would have flown perfectly the first time... but that opportunity is gone. No, people are going to want to see Falcon 5 and 9 fly successfully, too. The only place where that has a hope of happening, in my opinion, is Kwaj. It's the only place where they have the freedom to fail, without significant consequence... besides money.

So, SpaceX builds another temporary launch site on another island in the atoll, for F5 and F9? I'm not sure they can do that. The larger vehicles are just too big, and the ground support requirements too extensive for a larger version of Omelek. It would have to be more substantial. And here's the catch-22: when you've done that, what's the attraction for launching anywhere else? Why not just continue to do everything at Kwaj?

The only reason I see for going through the trouble of launching at the Cape -- ever -- is public relations; actually a very specific public: stock market analysts. If a rocket launches at the historic Cape, then they are a "real" rocket company. That would have meant lots of money, if timed for the IPO. Now, Elon will just have to show them their shiny facility in the south pacific. It can still work.

If Falcon 1 would have been a clear success, then they would have had options. However, now they've painted themselves into a corner. Maybe Elon will find a way to launch outside of Kwaj, but I don't see it in the near future.

DaveS · « **Reply #237 on:** 03/30/2006 09:45 am »

I have used the Omelek island overview photo and approximated the Falcon 1 flight path based on view seen in the launch video. Flight path is the red line.

Benny · « **Reply #238 on:** 03/30/2006 10:00 am »

I am sorry this might be common knowledge but is it true that SpaceX is already manufacturing
the Falcon 5 ? Or are they waiting for a successfull first attempt of Falcon 1?

Falcon 5 and 9 being very independent from the Falcon 1 design I would hope that they are putting
some effort in manufacturing Falcon 5 and Falcon 9.
Bigelow Aerospace and others are waiting for SpaceX to get their Falcons airborne.

...no pain - no glory...

Tap-Sa · « **Reply #239 on:** 03/30/2006 10:07 am »

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blueguitarbob - 30/3/2006 3:41 AM
The Fish and Wildlife Service wanted them to re-use existing building sites, and build a fence across the island so that nobody could wander into the forest on the north side to "collect or molest the wildlife", for goodness sakes.

An F9 launch would level the 'forest' and blow all the wildlife into the sea. F9 is a big rocket and will require a 'real' pad. Little concrete slab, few beams and garden hose 'deluge' won't work. First F9 flight is supposed to happen about year from now, they better start pouring concrete real soon now.