Poll

Ares I - will it survive the Augustine Fallout/Presidential Forward Plan?

Yes
43 (20.8%)
No
144 (69.6%)
Don't know
20 (9.7%)

Total Members Voted: 207

Author Topic: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?  (Read 23044 times)

Offline infocat13

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #40 on: 11/11/2009 09:35 PM »
Voted yes.

I think the 4-seg SRB will retire with the Shuttle. Can't see NASA cancel RSRMV now. DM-2 is in work, aft segment was cast, forward segment cast begins today. 5-seg is the future.

I also think the same goes for the SSME - retired with the Shuttle. What Jeff Hanley said in the leaked email. What Dr. Douglas Stanley said Nov 2nd at the AIAA moderated debate in D.C. What some forum members here are saying.



voted no,
but I see the 5 segment as a pay as you go project on the back burner for any future shuttle derived vehicle,do to development costs the 4 segment would live on for a while post shuttle .Not sure about the J2X or SSME as that depends on what the shuttle derived vehicle would be.on another post Chris and others might be saying the window is closing on ET tank production( restarting) so this would impact the side mount idea.
if its a choice between Ares lite ( a long gap) and a all EELV universe then go with EELV and be done with it.But that perhaps would not fly politically so....................
replace Ares 1 with EELV ( the gap)
"pay as you" go on Ares lite cargoe
Ares lite becomes the human rated "fall back" vehicle
so it would be a punt for future political/ commissions IE it would be a fly off between humans on Ares lite and EELV in the late 2020's when the heavy finally fly's
I see some politically logical flaws in my words above....................
you engineer types are not going to be able to give Utah what they want, continued SRB production. really only shuttle extension would  have done that with side mount maybe direct.The politicians brought this about by not funding you engineer types sooner with something other then Ares V.
so I am feeling gloomy tonight sorry
I am a member of the side mount fanboy universe however I can get excited over the EELV exploration architecture fanboy universe.Anything else is budgetary hog wash
flexible path/HERRO

Offline C5C6

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #41 on: 11/20/2009 07:14 PM »
It will survive despite the disadvantages...strictly political

Offline Pheogh

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #42 on: 11/20/2009 07:18 PM »
It will survive despite the disadvantages...strictly political

When do we start the will Ares V survive poll?

Offline kraisee

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #43 on: 11/20/2009 07:19 PM »
Not a chance for Ares I. 

I have a feeling we'll be seeing more things like this in print:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buzz-aldrin/why-we-need-better-rocket_b_351335.html

Talk about coming out and saying we're on the wrong path with the POR.

What I find facinating is how Buzz´ design is a hybred NSC and DIRECT 2.0.

What I find fascinating is how that design takes all the disadvantages from both of those approaches and combines them into one.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline kraisee

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #44 on: 11/20/2009 07:22 PM »
Not a chance for Ares I. 

I have a feeling we'll be seeing more things like this in print:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buzz-aldrin/why-we-need-better-rocket_b_351335.html

Talk about coming out and saying we're on the wrong path with the POR.

What I find facinating is how Buzz´ design is a hybred NSC and DIRECT 2.0.

What I find fascinating is how that design manages to combine all of the disadvantages from both of those other approaches into one.

You have the high costs to modify the external tank and you have the higher costs to build a new carrier as well.   Yet you don't get any of the safety or performance benefits which are possible.

Ross.
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline robertross

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #45 on: 11/20/2009 07:24 PM »
It will survive despite the disadvantages...strictly political

When do we start the will Ares V survive poll?

Nice Cartoon!
Remembering those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our rights & freedoms, and for those injured, visible or otherwise, in that fight.

Offline kraisee

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #46 on: 11/20/2009 07:41 PM »
Ares-I has got no chance at all of surviving this process.   CxP already accept this internally, though not publicly, yet.   That unpleasant announcement is awaiting a time when it can be made less stressful by timing it with the pleasant announcement of what will be replacing it.   Further, until a new direction is announced, work will still 'continue as normal', simply because you don't want everyone just sitting around playing solitaire all day.

Ares-V might cling-on for a few more years, but the budget realities make it impossible for it to ever be finished or become operational.   It is a dead Dinosaur too.

It is just taking time for some people to wake up to the reality of the difficult budgetary situation they are actually facing.   Its called denial.

Problem is, their only safety net is rapidly going away in the form of Shuttle.

Ross.
« Last Edit: 11/20/2009 07:50 PM by kraisee »
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
-Robert A. Heinlein

Offline Antares

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #47 on: 11/21/2009 04:02 AM »
Ares-I has got no chance at all of surviving this process.   CxP already accept this internally, though not publicly

Is Congress on-board?

It is just taking time for some people to wake up to the reality of the difficult budgetary situation they are actually facing.   Its called denial.

Wow, this long?  The slow bleed started about 20 years ago.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline saturnsky

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #48 on: 11/22/2009 01:12 PM »
First we need some real leadership who understand the importance of not giving up on manned space....

Online Comga

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #49 on: 12/04/2009 05:15 AM »
In the end, I had to vote, "Don't know." Common sense tells me the answer should be, "No," because there are so many better choices, many of which could fly by the end of 2016, at the very latest. Piling money on SpaceX, Orbital, and a combine that works toward Orion-Lite on Atlas V *and* Delta IV should result in at least one HSF to LEO system by 2014-2015. SD-HLV (NSC) and Jupiter-130 (if not -246) could also be ready to go by 2016 at the latest (2014 at the soonest, in a "piling money on" scenario). But I think money piling is unlikely. And I suspect the effect of US politics works powerfully in favor of PoR as-is. So I guess my answer-in-detail is, "50:50."

What he said.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online Comga

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #50 on: 12/04/2009 05:32 AM »
I posted this elsewhere but it applies here, too, in helping answer the question "SHOULD Ares-1 survive?"

This was a slide posted on NASAWatch that was reportedly NOT included in the Ares-1 presentation to the Augustine HSF Review.  A few lines have been added to assist in reading values from the chart.

From the PRA calculations of NASA's contractor, the probability of losing a crew on Ares-1 is one in ~820.  The calculated probability of losing a crew on an EELV based system is ~1/530.

ASSUMING that these were true, and further ASSUMING that NASA were to fly 4 Ares-1 missions a year for 25 years (a wild exaggeration that benefits the Ares-1) the odds of one or more LOC events is ~10.3% for Ares-1 and 17.2% for EELV.  The difference is 6.8%.  (There are more exact ways to do this calculation, but here the small number approximations should be adequate.)

In round numbers, it will probably cost $30B MORE to develop Ares-1 than it would to man-rate an EELV like the Delta-IV Heavy that has already flown, or perhaps the Atlas-V Heavy which has gone through CDR.  That would mean that we would be spending more than $400 Billion per LOC event prevented.  If the number of flights goes down to 50, the cost rises to $800 Billion per prevented LOC.  This is clearly not cost effective.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline jongoff

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #51 on: 12/04/2009 06:15 AM »
I posted this elsewhere but it applies here, too, in helping answer the question "SHOULD Ares-1 survive?"

This was a slide posted on NASAWatch that was reportedly NOT included in the Ares-1 presentation to the Augustine HSF Review.  A few lines have been added to assist in reading values from the chart.

From the PRA calculations of NASA's contractor, the probability of losing a crew on Ares-1 is one in ~820.  The calculated probability of losing a crew on an EELV based system is ~1/530.

ASSUMING that these were true, and further ASSUMING that NASA were to fly 4 Ares-1 missions a year for 25 years (a wild exaggeration that benefits the Ares-1) the odds of one or more LOC events is ~10.3% for Ares-1 and 17.2% for EELV.  The difference is 6.8%.  (There are more exact ways to do this calculation, but here the small number approximations should be adequate.)

In round numbers, it will probably cost $30B MORE to develop Ares-1 than it would to man-rate an EELV like the Delta-IV Heavy that has already flown, or perhaps the Atlas-V Heavy which has gone through CDR.  That would mean that we would be spending more than $400 Billion per LOC event prevented.  If the number of flights goes down to 50, the cost rises to $800 Billion per prevented LOC.  This is clearly not cost effective.

Another wrinkle in all this was pointed out by Brett Alexander yesterday at the show trial...er congressional hearing...Those charts that show the safety of EELVs vs Ares-I are only looking at the case of launching Orion manned, not EELVs launching a commercial earth-to-LEO optimized capsule (like what the A-com was *actually* suggesting).  Most of the commercial ETO capsules that have been discussed in CCDEV and other places are *much* smaller than Orion (since they don't have to have large amounts of delta-V for TEI burns, plane changes, etc, they don't have to operate for months autonomously, they don't have to be controlled out in Lunar Orbit, etc, etc).  Stuff that can fly on single core, no-strap-on versions of Atlas V or Falcon 9.  I wonder how an EELV launching a commercial-size capsule would've compared vs. Ares-I Orion for astronaut launch safety...

But your point about how much money we're trying to spend to avoid a theoretically extremely small difference in probabilities of losing people is also good.  Spending $30B to decrease the probability of losing 4 people every 25 years by 6% really does seem to be a really crappy abuse of public funds.

~Jon

Offline woods170

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #52 on: 12/04/2009 06:16 AM »
I voted yes, because I think they are that naive.

Ditto.

Offline Michael Bloxham

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #53 on: 12/04/2009 06:55 AM »
I voted "I don't know"
Because I don't know.
And I was surprised more people didn't pick that one.

Yeah me too. On the one hand it seems ridiculous to me that the Ares I program can continue to be funded despite of its inherent illogicality. But then on the other hand I have to recognize that the foolishness of government can't be underestimated... At least in regards to the latter I am more certain! :-p

Online MP99

I posted this elsewhere but it applies here, too, in helping answer the question "SHOULD Ares-1 survive?"

This was a slide posted on NASAWatch that was reportedly NOT included in the Ares-1 presentation to the Augustine HSF Review.  A few lines have been added to assist in reading values from the chart.

From the PRA calculations of NASA's contractor, the probability of losing a crew on Ares-1 is one in ~820.  The calculated probability of losing a crew on an EELV based system is ~1/530.

ASSUMING that these were true, and further ASSUMING that NASA were to fly 4 Ares-1 missions a year for 25 years (a wild exaggeration that benefits the Ares-1) the odds of one or more LOC events is ~10.3% for Ares-1 and 17.2% for EELV.  The difference is 6.8%.  (There are more exact ways to do this calculation, but here the small number approximations should be adequate.)

In round numbers, it will probably cost $30B MORE to develop Ares-1 than it would to man-rate an EELV like the Delta-IV Heavy that has already flown, or perhaps the Atlas-V Heavy which has gone through CDR.  That would mean that we would be spending more than $400 Billion per LOC event prevented.  If the number of flights goes down to 50, the cost rises to $800 Billion per prevented LOC.  This is clearly not cost effective.


...also, Shuttle pLOV ("Shuttle Ascent (QRAS)") is shown as almost 1:200, which is better than Ares I. The other image linked in that NASAWatch article shows a Shuttle enhanced with a LES, but bases it on the all-of-mission pLOV, not ascent-only:-



...I think the chart should have looked like this:-



IE with a 0.8 effective LES, Shuttle would be safer during ascent than Ares I + LAS.



Since both J-130 & NSCbI are basically simplified Shuttles, it seems to me that these might have even better pLOV ratings than Shuttle.



Up until now, everyone has been assuming ~0.9 figures for LAS effectiveness. If EELV is any measure of effectiveness from a more conventional rocket (lower T/W, and can be throttled off if Vehicle Monitoring detects a problem), then J-130 may gain further over Ares I. (It's hard to speculate much re NSCbI aborts, due to the side-mount config).

cheers, Martin

PS adding abort-effectiveness to Shuttles all-of-mission Loss figure implies that it's possible to abort at any point in the mission. Struggling to imagine what an abort during re-entry might look like!

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #55 on: 12/04/2009 09:19 PM »
{snip} Struggling to imagine what an abort during re-entry might look like!

A re-entry abort from say the Moon could fly to the ISS, stay in LEO or bounce off the atmosphere into an elliptical orbit.  At the ground the abort could be a splashdown rather than landing on the designated runway.

Offline pierogoletto

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #56 on: 12/05/2009 07:17 PM »
Do you think that NASA could be Going "Direct" instead to be "stuck to the stick"?
Anyway Ares I-X has been a good test.
Piero Giuseppe Goletto

Offline Hopf

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #57 on: 12/06/2009 01:02 PM »
First we need some real leadership who understand the importance of not giving up on manned space....

What does real leadership mean?  Believing everything that NASA politicians say and blindly throwing more money at the problem?  Or going back to the fly-off planned by Admiral Steidle and allowing demonstrated performance define the future?

Offline Analyst

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #58 on: 12/06/2009 02:47 PM »
Good points (and questions).

Analyst

Offline robertross

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #59 on: 12/06/2009 03:59 PM »
First we need some real leadership who understand the importance of not giving up on manned space....

What does real leadership mean?  Believing everything that NASA politicians say and blindly throwing more money at the problem?  Or going back to the fly-off planned by Admiral Steidle and allowing demonstrated performance define the future?

I'm with Analyst too, very good questions.

That's a muti-thread discussion for sure.
Remembering those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our rights & freedoms, and for those injured, visible or otherwise, in that fight.

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