Poll

Ares I - will it survive the Augustine Fallout/Presidential Forward Plan?

Yes
43 (20.8%)
No
144 (69.6%)
Don't know
20 (9.7%)

Total Members Voted: 207

Author Topic: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?  (Read 23034 times)

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #20 on: 11/10/2009 03:31 AM »

 Can't see NASA cancel RSRMV now. DM-2 is in work, aft segment was cast, forward segment cast begins today.

That is no guarantee.  See ASRM.

Or the Filament-wound cases (as in bent metal erm carbon)
And this is a good reminder that just because one of your fellow space enthusiasts occasionally voices doubts about the SpaceX schedule announcements or is cautious about believing SpaceX has licked a problem before actually seeing proof that's true, it doesn't mean they hate SpaceX.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #21 on: 11/10/2009 03:52 AM »
 I see no reason to reinvent the EELV as ULA can and will gladly sell you a 24T payload LV today.
There just is not money to be building a more expensive version of something you can already buy.
I'm sure or at least I hope the people in the congress and senate can see this too.
This would not be the end of SDLV's.
 The side mount or Jupiter will likely get built to fill the need for large cargo and to keep the SRB supply chain employed.

Offline madscientist197

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #22 on: 11/10/2009 07:16 AM »
I voted yes because I have no faith in government. I believe Ares I will survive because it has inertia; not because it is good and definitely not because it will help the space programme.

I believe that in 20 years time it will be looked back on as the single worst mistake that NASA has ever made. Without an improbable funding increase Ares I is worse than nothing -- it will maintain the standing army and suck up all the money. Ultimately I suspect the uninspiring nature of Ares I/ISS will conspire with the current budgetary realities to progressively shrink NASA's budget even further.

We may end up looking back on this as a golden age of cheap and frequent spaceflight... It's all so depressing :(
« Last Edit: 11/10/2009 07:26 AM by madscientist197 »
John

Offline Hungry4info3

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #23 on: 11/10/2009 07:30 AM »
I voted "I don't know"
Because I don't know.
And I was surprised more people didn't pick that one.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #24 on: 11/10/2009 11:12 AM »
I honestly have to say that I don't know. 

The budgetary, schedule and mission capability arguments are all strongly for cancellation and replacement with something either directly shuttle-derived or EELV-derived.  However, there is a lot of political inertia behind Ares-I and combining it with a long shuttle extension and cancellation of HLV (use multiple EELV-heavies as CaLVs instead) seems to be the lowest-inertial change decision that still addresses the budgetary, scheduling and mission capability issues.

A lot depends on whether the President really wants a fight with the special interests in Congress over space policy so soon after this bruising fight over health-care and with another fight over AfPak policy looming very close on the horizon.  Obama could easily view this as another chance to be seen as a reforming visionary.  On the other hand, he could see it as picking an unnecessary fight when there are a lot more critical and important issues on which to spend his political capital.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

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DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline Analyst

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #25 on: 11/10/2009 11:18 AM »
A lot depends on whether the President really wants a fight with the special interests in Congress over space policy so soon after this bruising fight over health-care and with another fight over AfPak policy looming very close on the horizon.  Obama could easily view this as another chance to be seen as a reforming visionary.  On the other hand, he could see it as picking an unnecessary fight when there are a lot more critical and important issues on which to spend his political capital.

Very well said. It is worth any fighting? I don't think so. Is fighting by him really needed to change anything? I don't know.

Analyst

Offline I14R10

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #26 on: 11/10/2009 11:20 AM »
I woted yes because if we abandon Ares I now, NASA won't have human rated launcher until 2025 and NASA will return on the Moon by 2035 and on Mars by 2060. That's my opinion.
"In memory of those who made the ultimate sacrifice so others could reach for the stars"

Offline Downix

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #27 on: 11/10/2009 11:24 AM »
I woted yes because if we abandon Ares I now, NASA won't have human rated launcher until 2025 and NASA will return on the Moon by 2035 and on Mars by 2060. That's my opinion.
Depends on the path, as there are options which give us a man-rated vehicle by 2013.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline Analyst

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #28 on: 11/10/2009 11:30 AM »
Depends on the path, as there are options which give us a man-rated vehicle by 2013.

Only one: Keep the current vehicle.

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Offline Downix

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #29 on: 11/10/2009 11:38 AM »
Depends on the path, as there are options which give us a man-rated vehicle by 2013.

Only one: Keep the current vehicle.

Analyst
I can think of four, two not politically viable but could be done technically.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline Analyst

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #30 on: 11/10/2009 11:50 AM »
Such as?

Analyst

Offline William Barton

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #31 on: 11/10/2009 12:21 PM »
In the end, I had to vote, "Don't know." Common sense tells me the answer should be, "No," because there are so many better choices, many of which could fly by the end of 2016, at the very latest. Piling money on SpaceX, Orbital, and a combine that works toward Orion-Lite on Atlas V *and* Delta IV should result in at least one HSF to LEO system by 2014-2015. SD-HLV (NSC) and Jupiter-130 (if not -246) could also be ready to go by 2016 at the latest (2014 at the soonest), in a "piling money on" scenario. But I think money piling is unlikely. And I suspect the effect of US politics works powerfully in favor of PoR as-is. So I guess my answer-in-detail is, "50:50."

Offline William Barton

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #32 on: 11/10/2009 12:26 PM »
I will add this. The current odds favor the Republicans taking control of the US House of Representatives (but not the US Senate) at the end of next year. That could change *whatever* decisions are made by the Obama administration. Spending bills originate in the House. The "house divided" aspects of US politics that have evolved over the past 20+ years are pushing us in the direction of, "all plans fail."

Offline Downix

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #33 on: 11/10/2009 01:42 PM »
Such as?

Analyst
1) Extend shuttle

2) purchase a man-rated lifter from a foreign entity, namely Russia

3) NASA contract to push development of SpaceXś Dragon/Falcon9

4) Gemini-like programme to create a rapid-development capsule to go on top of an Atlas, the ¨Orion Lite¨ which has been bantered about before.

As I said, two are right-out due to political needs.  You may note I did not put DIRECT in there, because with DIRECT the long-pole is Orion, which will not be ready until 2014/2015, so even if we could crash-build DIRECTś J130, we would be left without a crew capsule for a period of time.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline scotty125

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #34 on: 11/10/2009 04:38 PM »
By all rights, the answer should be "NO," and that's how I voted.  Unfortunately, Ares is a rocket in search of a mission, as it doesn't appear it will be ready to go and make contributions to the ISS program much before we de-orbit the darn thing.  I have always thought you should develop the rocket for the mission, or develop them concurrently, not come up with a mission for the rocket...that seems to be the ultimate "Cart Before the Horse" method.

Whether it lives or dies, I think it will be a protracted struggle.  I had the privilege to hear Charlie Bolden speak Saturday night at the ASF Apollo 12 40th Aniversary Gala.  He stressed the "tortoise and the hare," saying that the ultimate decision has not been made, but assuring everyone in attendance (including Neil Armstrong and a large contingent of Apollo & Shuttle astronauts) that while it might be a slow process, we would end up with "an exploration program all of us can be proud of."  I know he's a man of his word, I just hope he can pull it off, regardless of what launch vehicle is ultimately selected...
"He who will not, when he may, when he should, he shall have nay."
TV Commercial - Gulf Oil during Apollo Landings

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #35 on: 11/10/2009 05:09 PM »
I just hope he can pull it off, regardless of what launch vehicle is ultimately selected...

Unfortunately, he is only the guy who is tasked with doing the job.  The decisions are in other hands.  If you excuse my tone, it is in the hands of people, some of whom think 'honour' is something that you do to checks.
"Oops! I left the silly thing in reverse!" - Duck Dodgers

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The time for words has passed; The time has come to put up or shut up!
DON'T PROPAGANDISE, FLY!!!

Offline scotty125

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #36 on: 11/10/2009 05:29 PM »
I won't disagree with you there.  And that raises the ultimate question which is "How much micromanagement will be inflicted by the President & Congress?"  The options range from "Charlie, here's $5B per year for the next 10 years...get the most out of it you can" through "Whatever you do needs to be shuttle-derived to preserve the workforce" to "We favor Jupiter 241 over Jupiter 246."  The most effective program would come from somewhere between the first 2 scenarios, but the most likely outcome will probably be between 2 & 3...  Sorry if this wandered off-topic.
"He who will not, when he may, when he should, he shall have nay."
TV Commercial - Gulf Oil during Apollo Landings

Offline texas_space

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #37 on: 11/10/2009 05:34 PM »
Not a chance for Ares I. 

I have a feeling we'll be seeing more things like this in print:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buzz-aldrin/why-we-need-better-rocket_b_351335.html

Talk about coming out and saying we're on the wrong path with the POR.
"We went to the moon nine times. Why fake it nine times, if we faked it?" - Charlie Duke

Offline Downix

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #38 on: 11/10/2009 05:47 PM »
Not a chance for Ares I. 

I have a feeling we'll be seeing more things like this in print:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/buzz-aldrin/why-we-need-better-rocket_b_351335.html

Talk about coming out and saying we're on the wrong path with the POR.

What I find facinating is how Buzz´ design is a hybred NSC and DIRECT 2.0.
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline Integrator

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Re: Poll: Augustine Fallout - Poll 1 - Will Ares I survive?
« Reply #39 on: 11/11/2009 09:34 PM »
I point readers to this and similar SE texts:

Title:   Pre-milestone A and early-phase systems engineering: a retrospective review and benefits for future Air Force systems acquisition

Author:   National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Pre-Milestone A Systems Engineering: A Retrospective Review and Benefits for Future Air Force Systems Acquisition
Publisher:   National Academies Press, 2008
ISBN:   0309114756, 9780309114752
Chapter 2: "Relationship between Systems Engineering and Program Outcome"

Based on past experience and historical trends, it is too late for Ares-1.  Requirements are not stable because the SDR phase was not executed properly, PDR has not been passed due to late awareness of the TO issues which are adding significant design complexities to both vehicle and payload, insufficient performance and power margin is being carried in many subsystems, critical ground and flight testing is being cut to meet increasingly tight budget constraints and schedule is slipping farther and farther to the right.  Furthermore, and most importantly, the larger exploration architecture this vehicle was supposed to support is now seen to be impractical, problematic and ill-advised.

It's time to STOP - cut our losses, re-vector and start over.
INTEGRATOR
"Daddy, does that rocket carry people?"
"No buddy, just satellites."
"Why not?"
   --- 5 year old son of jjnodice,  21.01.2011

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