Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (1)

[baldusi]

This means 84 flights of six passengers. That's ~1.2M per flight of total revenue. What's the life of each airframe? How much does it costs each engine fill? What's the life of an engine? 1.2M per flights isn't a lot if any of these questions gives the wrong answer. What's more, how much have they spent designing and certifying the system?
What's more, at about 100 passengers per year, they would have 17 flights per year (one each three weeks) and 20M per year of revenue. I still think it's a very razor thin project, any problems and your profitability is bust. Of course, if you consider it as a marketing investment, that's a whole different issue.

[Robotbeat]

This means 84 flights of six passengers. That's ~1.2M per flight of total revenue. What's the life of each airframe? How much does it costs each engine fill? What's the life of an engine? 1.2M per flights isn't a lot if any of these questions gives the wrong answer. What's more, how much have they spent designing and certifying the system?
What's more, at about 100 passengers per year, they would have 17 flights per year (one each three weeks) and 20M per year of revenue. I still think it's a very razor thin project, any problems and your profitability is bust. Of course, if you consider it as a marketing investment, that's a whole different issue.

Airlines run on razor thin margins. No different, IMHO.

[pippin]

Airlines have an established business model, huge revenues and lots of competition. Not quite comparable.
And still they go bankrupt all the time.

For something new like this you need hefty margins.

[Robotbeat]

Airlines have an established business model, huge revenues and lots of competition. Not quite comparable.

For something new like this you need hefty margins.

Not entirely disagreeing, but space tourism just isn't viable with typical aerospace margins. They need to "make it up in volume" like airlines, as well.

That's why we're talking about passenger volumes in the hundreds and thousands.

[savuporo]

Of course, if you consider it as a marketing investment, that's a whole different issue.

I think thats very obviously the key. This venture, if successful, will probably have massive secondary revenue streams besides ticket sales.

[QuantumG]

Hopefully Virgin Galactic won't be the metric for profitability.

[Danderman]

This means 84 flights of six passengers. That's ~1.2M per flight of total revenue. What's the life of each airframe? How much does it costs each engine fill? What's the life of an engine? 1.2M per flights isn't a lot if any of these questions gives the wrong answer. What's more, how much have they spent designing and certifying the system?
What's more, at about 100 passengers per year, they would have 17 flights per year (one each three weeks) and 20M per year of revenue. I still think it's a very razor thin project, any problems and your profitability is bust. Of course, if you consider it as a marketing investment, that's a whole different issue.

A lot of this type of analysis depends on the initial assumptions. VG claims they will be flying every day, not once every 3 weeks, for example.

I have no idea how VG will do, they may have an accident on their first operational flight, and that could be that. However, it is unlikely that suborbital spaceflight will suffer the fate of the dirigible industry.

The US government seems much more optimistic about the future of this industry, however:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/21/uk-usa-space-tourism-idUSLNE82K01420120321

"The Obama administration is preparing for a space tourism industry that is expected to be worth $1 billion in 10 years, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration's commercial space office said on Tuesday."

[bolun]

Virgin announces plans for Spaceport Abu Dhabi

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/virgin-announces-plans-for-spaceport-abu-dhabi.html

[catdlr]

Your Journey To Space Starts Here June 2013

Published on Jun 11, 2013
The latest version of Virgin Galactic's 'Your Journey To Space Starts Here' - June 2013

[Lar]

Your Journey To Space Starts Here June 2013

Published on Jun 11, 2013
The latest version of Virgin Galactic's 'Your Journey To Space Starts Here' - June 2013

What a fun vid. They know PR (and how to use the same bit of footage over and over

[catdlr]

Virgin Galactic - Dreams June 201

Published on Jun 17, 2013
The latest version of our 'Dreams' film

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Richard Brason has announced the 600th Virgin Galactic customer; a British woman Marsha Waters:

http://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/the-next-generation-of-women-in-space

A few years ago VG said they were aiming for 700 customers before going operational. Looks like they won't be too far off.

[mr. mark]

Wondering out loud, what is the hold up with the next powered flight test? Didn't think it would take this long to get SS2 back in the air.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Wondering out loud, what is the hold up with the next powered flight test? Didn't think it would take this long to get SS2 back in the air.

I remember seeing rumors of SS2 making its 2nd powered flight during the Paris Airshow. Now the air show has ended and nothing yet.....

[mr. mark]

Wondering out loud, what is the hold up with the next powered flight test? Didn't think it would take this long to get SS2 back in the air.

I remember seeing rumors of SS2 making its 2nd powered flight during the Paris Airshow. Now the air show has ended and nothing yet.....

Guess I had not had my coffee this morning, California time. But, this rumor is a little on the crazy side. Who would test fly a vehicle at an airshow? You might as well test fly SS2 at LAX. Hope that the flight tests resume at Mojave where a "proper" test regiment can be continued. 

[e of pi]

Guess I had not had my coffee this morning, California time. But, this rumor is a little on the crazy side. Who would test fly a vehicle at an airshow? You might as well test fly SS2 at LAX. Hope that the flight tests resume at Mojave where a "proper" test regiment can be continued.

Not that they would test at Paris, just during Paris. It's a major business event in aeropsace, a lot of companies save major announments or events (like the A350 flight) until the airshow is going on to tap into the press coverage.

[Robotbeat]

I'm talking to some of the higher-ups at Virgin in about 15-30 minutes. Anyone have good questions they want answered?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I'm talking to some of the higher-ups at Virgin in about 15-30 minutes. Anyone have good questions they want answered?

Thanks for asking!

Without naming names, is anyone else expressing real interest in buying WK2/SS2 systems? Or do Virgin only expect enquiries if/when SS2 is operational?

[thydusk666]

I'd be curious to know if they plan flying from Europe. Thanks.

[Robotbeat]

I'm talking to some of the higher-ups at Virgin in about 15-30 minutes. Anyone have good questions they want answered?

Thanks for asking!

Without naming names, is anyone else expressing real interest in buying WK2/SS2 systems? Or do Virgin only expect enquiries if/when SS2 is operational?

According to what they said, Virgin isn't looking at selling to private companies because it'd be enabling their competition, but there is the possibility of selling to gov'ts and the like, so maybe NASA would have a pair for the astronaut corp or something.

I didn't ask the Europe question, but they are very serious about the 250kg to LEO LauncherOne project and have been doing some serious work on that. It sounds like their next big strategic goal is the Mach 20+ suborbital point-to-point which feeds right into orbital HSF, though it doesn't really sound like they are very close to that. The in-house liquid propulsion experience they're building with LauncherOne (including some people who used to work for SpaceX) is going to feed into the p2p and orbital stuff (they aren't planning on buying, say, Russian engines like Kistler).

I asked about SS3, and if they are developing it, they didn't tell us.