Author Topic: Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (1) (Read 255451 times)

js117 · « **Reply #400 on:** 09/08/2011 10:53 pm »

Quote from: mr. mark on 09/08/2011 09:45 pm

If the engine tests are working out well, Virgin Galactic and Scaled is getting very close to the beginning of commercial suborbital spaceflight operations. We may be talking present tense very soon and not some far off future date.

I will be surprised if they fly commercial suborbital spaceflight before
2013.

spacetraveler · « **Reply #401 on:** 09/12/2011 12:47 am »

Quote from: mr. mark on 09/08/2011 09:45 pm

If the engine tests are working out well, Virgin Galactic and Scaled is getting very close to the beginning of commercial suborbital spaceflight operations. We may be talking present tense very soon and not some far off future date.

They've done around a dozen drop tests I believe. They will probably do quite a few powered test flights as well, plus they still a lot of red tape to get through with the FAA and other agencies before they can launch anyone. It could easily be at least 1-2 years before they are flying paying customers, and that's assuming all of the powered flights go well and no problems develop.

simonbp · « **Reply #402 on:** 09/12/2011 04:15 pm »

But then, noone else is even close to as far ahead as they are, so there isn't much rush...

woods170 · « **Reply #403 on:** 09/14/2011 07:23 am »

Nice little snippet about the expected G-load environments on future Virgin Galactic flights:

http://twitter.com/#!/AstroSamantha/status/112526012302114817

The tweet comes from someone at ESA operations.

MrAnthonyDR · « **Reply #404 on:** 09/15/2011 03:14 pm »

Quote from: js117 on 09/08/2011 10:53 pm

Quote from: mr. mark on 09/08/2011 09:45 pm
If the engine tests are working out well, Virgin Galactic and Scaled is getting very close to the beginning of commercial suborbital spaceflight operations. We may be talking present tense very soon and not some far off future date.
I will be surprised if they fly commercial suborbital spaceflight before
2013.

When you say that, are you referring to paying customers flying to space? Or are you including the first test flight(s) to pass the Karman line?

I'm hoping to see some powered flights approaching 80-100km by Q2/Q3...is that ambitious?

Anthony

mr. mark · « **Reply #405 on:** 09/15/2011 03:23 pm »

I was referring to test flights particularly, flights up to the proposed suborbital altitude. To me, this would be the dividing line. Once a system is operational that would be the start of the commercial space age not when a vehicle carries paying passengers. Remember Spaceship 2 can also carry science experiments so passengers are only one type of cargo.

Moe Grills · « **Reply #406 on:** 09/15/2011 08:58 pm »

Isn't Virgin Galactic planning 100 suborbital test flights of the SS2
to receive FAA certification to allow them to carry 'paying' passengers?

If Virgin Galactic needs to carry out 100 suborbital test-flights of the SS2,
then assuming the first powered flight of the of the SS2 is next month (a very good bet); and the SS2 goes supersonic before Christmas, and achieves 100km+ sometime next February, then 100 suborbital test flights, at an average of one or two per week would result in the SS2 receiving passenger carrying certification from the FAA sometime?.....between the first quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 by my calculations.

MrAnthonyDR · « **Reply #407 on:** 09/16/2011 09:31 am »

Quote from: Moe Grills on 09/15/2011 08:58 pm

Isn't Virgin Galactic planning 100 suborbital test flights of the SS2
to receive FAA certification to allow them to carry 'paying' passengers?

If Virgin Galactic needs to carry out 100 suborbital test-flights of the SS2,
then assuming the first powered flight of the of the SS2 is next month (a very good bet); and the SS2 goes supersonic before Christmas, and achieves 100km+ sometime next February, then 100 suborbital test flights, at an average of one or two per week would result in the SS2 receiving passenger carrying certification from the FAA sometime?.....between the first quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 by my calculations.

Thanks for the logical extrapolation. I agree with this timeline; as I mentioned in a previous post, my prediction since Dec last year was that the first powered flights to reach Kraman line should occur in Q2/Q3 2012.

I would say that your estimate of Feb 2012 is a best case scenario (as you said). I'm expecting at least some minor bugs and delays to crop up, but VG have been quick to resolve issues thus far.(http://www.space.com/8989-virgin-galactic-spaceship-launching-jet-damaged-minor-runway-accident.html) If I were a betting man I'd say first flight to break 100km would be July; they may even time it for the Apollo 11 anniversary.

aquarius · « **Reply #408 on:** 09/16/2011 07:17 pm »

Virgin aims for first space launch within a year

http://www.france24.com/en/20110915-virgin-aims-first-space-launch-within-year-0

js117 · « **Reply #409 on:** 09/17/2011 02:06 am »

Quote from: aquarius on 09/16/2011 07:17 pm

Virgin aims for first space launch within a year

http://www.france24.com/en/20110915-virgin-aims-first-space-launch-within-year-0

Quote from: MrAnthonyDR on 09/15/2011 03:14 pm

Quote from: js117 on 09/08/2011 10:53 pm
Quote from: mr. mark on 09/08/2011 09:45 pm
If the engine tests are working out well, Virgin Galactic and Scaled is getting very close to the beginning of commercial suborbital spaceflight operations. We may be talking present tense very soon and not some far off future date.
I will be surprised if they fly commercial suborbital spaceflight before
2013.

When you say that, are you referring to paying customers flying to space? Or are you including the first test flight(s) to pass the Karman line?

I'm hoping to see some powered flights approaching 80-100km by Q2/Q3...is that ambitious?

Anthony

Quote

Quote from: Moe Grills on 09/15/2011 08:58 PM

Isn't Virgin Galactic planning 100 suborbital test flights of the SS2
to receive FAA certification to allow them to carry 'paying' passengers?

If Virgin Galactic needs to carry out 100 suborbital test-flights of the SS2,
then assuming the first powered flight of the of the SS2 is next month (a very good bet); and the SS2 goes supersonic before Christmas, and achieves 100km+ sometime next February, then 100 suborbital test flights, at an average of one or two per week would result in the SS2 receiving passenger carrying certification from the FAA sometime?.....between the first quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 by my calculations.

From the other article
AFP - British business magnate Richard Branson hopes to launch a vessel into space within the next 12 months, kicking off an era of commercial space travel.
i
"The mother ship is finished... The rocket tests are going extremely well, and so I think that we're now on track for a launch within 12 months of today," he told CNN's Piers Morgan late Wednesday.

This would require them to fly 2 test flights a week to meet this

mto · « **Reply #410 on:** 09/20/2011 01:15 pm »

It's not strictly a Virgin Galactic story but from the Los Angeles Times September 20, 2011(link)

Quote

Firm completes spacecraft factory in Mojave
The facility will be home to Spaceship Co., a joint venture of Scaled Composites and British billionaire Richard Branson's space tourism company, Virgin Galactic. The company expects to begin production at the end of the month.

MrAnthonyDR · « **Reply #411 on:** 09/20/2011 03:17 pm »

To summarise the two last updates:

1) Current expectation of Mr Branson is for VSS Enterprise to launch within 12 months
http://www.spacenews.com/commentaries/110916-fromwires-virgin-targets-launch-12-months.html

2) A new facility has been acquired by VG for dedicated spaceship production allowing them to "build a fleet of passenger craft"
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spaceship-factory-20110920,0,855510.story

I would take both 'updates' with a pinch of salt, as previously stated it's unlikely that the Enterprise will have customers flying on it before 2014.

The next major update that would be a true indication of progress towards the Kraman line would be an announcement of successful installation of the motor to the Enterprise.

Does anyone know if its likely that VG would do a (static) ground test of the motor after installation to the Enterprise, or would all testing need to be drop-test based? I'm guessing that the Enterprise was not designed to withstand a static ground firing as the motor was never intended to operate on the ground (unlike, say, the XCOR Lynx)

Garrett · « **Reply #412 on:** 09/20/2011 03:47 pm »

Quote from: MrAnthonyDR on 09/20/2011 03:17 pm

Does anyone know if its likely that VG would do a (static) ground test of the motor after installation to the Enterprise, or would all testing need to be drop-test based? I'm guessing that the Enterprise was not designed to withstand a static ground firing as the motor was never intended to operate on the ground (unlike, say, the XCOR Lynx)

The motor was developed and hot-fire tested on the ground, so from the motor's standpoint there's nothing wrong with ground testing.
Scaled have engineers that are more than capable of reproducing flight conditions on the ground. I would imagine that initial ground testing to check out vibration levels would be quite important. I would presume that Scaled will perform progressive ground hot-fire tests before testing at altitude with a pilot.
Just shooting from the hip, but that's what would make sense to me.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #413 on:** 09/20/2011 03:48 pm »

Quote from: Moe Grills on 09/15/2011 08:58 pm

Isn't Virgin Galactic planning 100 suborbital test flights of the SS2
to receive FAA certification to allow them to carry 'paying' passengers?

If Virgin Galactic needs to carry out 100 suborbital test-flights of the SS2,
then assuming the first powered flight of the of the SS2 is next month (a very good bet); and the SS2 goes supersonic before Christmas, and achieves 100km+ sometime next February, then 100 suborbital test flights, at an average of one or two per week would result in the SS2 receiving passenger carrying certification from the FAA sometime?.....between the first quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014 by my calculations.

It was only six and a half months from the first powered flight of SpaceShipOne until it broke the Karman Line. I don't expect SpaceShipTwo to take really longer than that, once it starts powered flights.

You are right that it's going to take a while to get 100 flights under their belts. But, one must assume that they have designed SpaceShipTwo for just this sort of high flight-rate. I don't see why, after they get a few flights to 100+km and analyze the results, they couldn't do a flight every day there's clear weather, thus theoretically they could get it done within a year. But realistically, I'll be very surprised if they carry paying customers before 2013.

Jason1701 · « **Reply #414 on:** 09/20/2011 06:13 pm »

Source for the 100 test flights?

Garrett · « **Reply #415 on:** 09/21/2011 08:35 am »

Quote from: Jason1701 on 09/20/2011 06:13 pm

Source for the 100 test flights?

A very good question, and one I was considering asking as well. I doubt that the FAA has a simple "100 flights and you're good to go" policy. I imagine that somebody somewhere mentioned a ballpark figure of 100 flights. Only time will tell whether it'll take 50 or 150 flights to satisfy FAA requirements.

Now I'll probably waste the next hour or two trawling through the Internet to see how the FAA sets about certifying passenger aircraft. *sigh*

MrAnthonyDR · « **Reply #416 on:** 09/21/2011 08:46 am »

Slight update to the "facility to build a fleet of spaceships" story.

According to Universe Today, this facility is called the 'Final Assembly, Integration and Test Hangar (FAITH)'

"With FAITH in place, the required infrastructure is now in place to manufacture a fleet of SpaceShipTwo (SS2) sub-orbital spaceships as well as the WhiteKnightTwo (WK2) carrier aircraft. The facility has been sized to support construction of SS2 and WK2 with room to build two of each of these craft – at the same time."

Full Source Article
http://www.universetoday.com/89070/commercial-space-roundup/

Herb Schaltegger · « **Reply #417 on:** 09/21/2011 12:06 pm »

Quote from: Garrett on 09/21/2011 08:35 am

Now I'll probably waste the next hour or two trawling through the Internet to see how the FAA sets about certifying passenger aircraft. *sigh*

There's an entire set of very comprehensive Federal Air Regulation (FARs). Don't spend too much time, as these have been devised through experience, and over an entire century of aircraft development history. Most of that history, I'll add, has included commercial flight operations on a vastly larger scale than commercial spaceflight is likely to ever match. So, be very careful of drawing too many analogies.

Garrett · « **Reply #418 on:** 09/21/2011 01:27 pm »

Quote from: Herb Schaltegger on 09/21/2011 12:06 pm

Quote from: Garrett on 09/21/2011 08:35 am
Now I'll probably waste the next hour or two trawling through the Internet to see how the FAA sets about certifying passenger aircraft. *sigh*

There's an entire set of very comprehensive Federal Air Regulation (FARs). Don't spend too much time, as these have been devised through experience, and over an entire century of aircraft development history. Most of that history, I'll add, has included commercial flight operations on a vastly larger scale than commercial spaceflight is likely to ever match. So, be very careful of drawing too many analogies.

Thanks for those tips.
I suspect, however, that commercial spaceflight regulations will inherit the baggage of an entire century of commercial aircraft regulations, i.e. I doubt very much that the regulations will start from a clean sheet. So it may be possible, if that turns out to be the case, to draw quite a few analogies.

This looks to be going off-topic. Maybe there's already another thread discussing commercial spaceflight regulations?

Herb Schaltegger · « **Reply #419 on:** 09/21/2011 01:32 pm »

Quote from: Garrett on 09/21/2011 01:27 pm

Thanks for those tips.
I suspect, however, that commercial spaceflight regulations will inherit the baggage of an entire century of commercial aircraft regulations, i.e. I doubt very much that the regulations will start from a clean sheet. So it may be possible, if that turns out to be the case, to draw quite a few analogies.

This looks to be going off-topic. Maybe there's already another thread discussing commercial spaceflight regulations?

Well, in case you're bored . . .

http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/faa_regulations/commercial_space/#regulations