Virgin Galactic and SpaceShipTwo Master Thread (1)

[mlorrey]

So no flights into space before 2011.

Maybe after all of the bravado and the harsh criticism of government programs, they're finally learning that even modest goals, like building a stunt plane that can hit Mach 3 briefly before coasting to the arbitrary boundary of space and falling back to Earth, aren't so easy to achieve!

I don't believe the Scaled Composites/Virgin Galactic project is really as modest as that. It's not just a "stunt plane". Here is a non exhaustive list of some of their project goals (off the top of my head, so not a rigorous list).
 - design of a sub-orbital plane, capable of going beyond the Karman (100km) line. (no other such craft currently exists).
 - use of a novel, "care-free" re-entry system
 - captive carry to 50,000 feet by a purpose-built high altitude plane.
 - bring 8 people (6 passengers + 2 pilots) to over 100 km
 - allow passengers to experience weightlessness
 - create logistical and physical infrastructure to allow for a profitable business
 - get certified by the FAA, and in doing so pave the way for other private space companies

I feel that the building of a space tourism infrastructure (e.g. Spaceport America) and the testing of new regulations along with the FAA are the most important aspects of this and similar projects. The next main hurdle is the maintaining of a stable space tourism market!

Yes, one thing the NewSpace skeptics love to retort is that X-15 outperformed SS1. In ultimate speed it did, but not altitude, and X-15 never went max speed on the same flight it went for max altitude.

Secondly, the effort of Tier 1 is more akin to developing BOTH the X-15 AND the B-52. Note that NASA didn't spend money on building a custom captive carry mothership. They got a free ride on that. Rutan didn't.

[vt_hokie]

Yup, and Rutan started designing it in the early 1990's, so he took quite a while getting the design right the first time. Five years for SS2/WK2 is pretty reasonable. There are regular civil aircraft that take longer to get to market than that.

And yet we're supposed to believe that scrapping Constellation in favor of unproven commercial providers will decrease the manned spaceflight gap?  I don't buy the argument that we'll have even a manned Dragon, let alone something like DreamChaser, in less time than it would take to develop even just a civil aircraft.

[vt_hokie]

So all X-15 pilots including Michael J. Adams were just stuntmen, by your categorization ?

I would say that because they were performing their "stunts" in the name of research, rather than an expensive amusement park ride, they were not simply stuntmen.

[Robotbeat]

Yup, and Rutan started designing it in the early 1990's, so he took quite a while getting the design right the first time. Five years for SS2/WK2 is pretty reasonable. There are regular civil aircraft that take longer to get to market than that.

And yet we're supposed to believe that scrapping Constellation in favor of unproven commercial providers will decrease the manned spaceflight gap?  I don't buy the argument that we'll have even a manned Dragon, let alone something like DreamChaser, in less time than it would take to develop even just a civil aircraft.

Dragon has been in development for many, many years now, and I think SpaceX may have even bought the design from someone else (who would've done extensive design work on it, as well). The first unmanned COTS demo Dragon is already mostly finished and will most likely fly before the end of the year (SpaceX says Flight 2 will fly within maybe 10 weeks after Flight 1, which is currently set for May 23rd, so even with the standard SpaceX multiplier of 2.4x, we're still looking at before the end of 2010)... this is the one with TPS that will be testing (among other things) the capsule recovery systems, something rather important for a manned spacecraft (and something only very few spacecraft are capable of, and the only recoverable spacecraft within an order of magnitude of Dragon's size are ALL manned).

[Diagoras]

So all X-15 pilots including Michael J. Adams were just stuntmen, by your categorization ?

I would say that because they were performing their "stunts" in the name of research, rather than an expensive amusement park ride, they were not simply stuntmen.

Hmm, that sounds familiar...

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no practical value."

Not to mention that Virgin Galactic and other suborbital flight providers see research as their key market driver, both private and public. Tourism was how they acquired investment and sold the idea initially - new market opportunities are opening up now that they've gotten their first toehold.

But nah, I don't see why we should get behind these new-fangled "aero-planes." After all, they're only useful for the wealthy and barn-storming daredevils! 

[kkattula]

Yup, and Rutan started designing it in the early 1990's, so he took quite a while getting the design right the first time. Five years for SS2/WK2 is pretty reasonable. There are regular civil aircraft that take longer to get to market than that.

And yet we're supposed to believe that scrapping Constellation in favor of unproven commercial providers will decrease the manned spaceflight gap?  I don't buy the argument that we'll have even a manned Dragon, let alone something like DreamChaser, in less time than it would take to develop even just a civil aircraft.

These are the same 'unproven commercial providers' who brought us:

Mercury (2.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?
Gemini, (3.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?

Who launch billion dollar payloads on EELVs?

Who produced detailed proposals for OSP & CEV in the recent past?


Yep, better not rely on those guys...

[Garrett]

Virgin Galactic appoints first Chief Executive
http://www.virgin.com/travel/news/virgin-galactic-appoints-first-chief-executive

Snippet from article:

Virgin Galactic, the US based and regulated Space Tourism Company, is delighted to announce the appointment of George T. Whitesides as its first Chief Executive Officer. In this role, Whitesides will guide the business through its transition from a development project to a commercially operational business.

Whitesides joins Virgin Galactic from his recent role as Chief of Staff of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). At NASA, Whitesides was responsible for working to implement the NASA Administrator’s policy agenda and staffing decisions.

Wikipedia article on Mr. Whitesides: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_T._Whitesides

[jabe]

Looks like they did a captive carry test the other day
http://www.scaled.com/projects/whiteknighttwo_spaceshiptwo_test_summaries

[Garrett]

Looks like they did a captive carry test the other day
http://www.scaled.com/projects/whiteknighttwo_spaceshiptwo_test_summaries

Thanks for the update. I'll take the liberty of posting the test summary below:

Flight   WK2 Flight 27 / CC-02
Date:    16 May 10   Flight Time:    4.7 hr
Pilot:   Siebold   CoPilot:   Stucky
FTE:   Maisler

Objectives:
SS2 pressurization evaluation
SS2 electrical system evaluation
SS2 avionics performance evaluation
SS2 approaches
Post-Flight cold soaked systems testing

Results:
All objectives achieved. SS2 was pressurized and powered from the mothership in flight. Peak altitude was 51,000 ft which allowed for a long cold-soak to evaluate the robustness of the hardware. A simulated Spaceship decent/glide mission was made from altitude to high key. Several approaches followed for pilot training/proficiency.

Interesting about the simulated approaches. I don't really understand how they would go about doing that as I imagine that SS2 remained attached to WK2 at all times. Also, SS2 was powered by WK2, which I find curious. Unless this will be standard practice, maybe to reduce the size (i.e. weight) of the battery on SS2?

It looks like a major milestone. They reached 51,000 ft on a captive carry flight, which will be the altitude for launching SS2! Congrats to the Scaled team!

[vt_hokie]

These are the same 'unproven commercial providers' who brought us:

Mercury (2.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?
Gemini, (3.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?

Fair point, but it seems like we used to be able to do things quickly, and no longer can.  Heck, this country probably built the transcontinental railroad in less time than it would take to prepare an environmental impact statement for a 2 mile rail siding today!   

[kkattula]

These are the same 'unproven commercial providers' who brought us:

Mercury (2.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?
Gemini, (3.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?

Fair point, but it seems like we used to be able to do things quickly, and no longer can.  Heck, this country probably built the transcontinental railroad in less time than it would take to prepare an environmental impact statement for a 2 mile rail siding today!   

Also a fair point.  Maybe NASA should be employing cheap chinese labour like the transcontinental railroad did? 

More worrying, in recent decades NASA has quite a record of sourcing industry proposals, picking the wrong one, over-specing, under-funding and over-managing it, then canceling in controversial circumstances.

I blame the new 'sciences' of Project Management and Systems Engineering.  They're based on the assumption that one can replace talent and leadership with tightly controlled processes and standards. How's that working out do you think?

A few years ago, I used to say "The mission of NASA is to restrict human access to space." VSE and ESAS convinced me that was either wrong, or had changed. Constellation and now FY2011 are turning me around again.

At least Scaled & Virgin are trying something new. On a fairly limited budget, it's not surprising they've had delays and setbacks. But they're getting there.

[mlorrey]

Yup, and Rutan started designing it in the early 1990's, so he took quite a while getting the design right the first time. Five years for SS2/WK2 is pretty reasonable. There are regular civil aircraft that take longer to get to market than that.

And yet we're supposed to believe that scrapping Constellation in favor of unproven commercial providers will decrease the manned spaceflight gap?  I don't buy the argument that we'll have even a manned Dragon, let alone something like DreamChaser, in less time than it would take to develop even just a civil aircraft.

Keep changing the subject?

[mlorrey]

These are the same 'unproven commercial providers' who brought us:

Mercury (2.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?
Gemini, (3.5 years from contract to first manned flight)?

Fair point, but it seems like we used to be able to do things quickly, and no longer can.  Heck, this country probably built the transcontinental railroad in less time than it would take to prepare an environmental impact statement for a 2 mile rail siding today!   

Also a fair point.  Maybe NASA should be employing cheap chinese labour like the transcontinental railroad did? 

More worrying, in recent decades NASA has quite a record of sourcing industry proposals, picking the wrong one, over-specing, under-funding and over-managing it, then canceling in controversial circumstances.

I blame the new 'sciences' of Project Management and Systems Engineering.  They're based on the assumption that one can replace talent and leadership with tightly controlled processes and standards. How's that working out do you think?

A few years ago, I used to say "The mission of NASA is to restrict human access to space." VSE and ESAS convinced me that was either wrong, or had changed. Constellation and now FY2011 are turning me around again.

At least Scaled & Virgin are trying something new. On a fairly limited budget, it's not surprising they've had delays and setbacks. But they're getting there.

The contractors back in the day were still run by their founders and had pride in performance first and foremost and knew that profit followed. Todays big aerospace conglomerates suffer from the same short term max-profit-for-least-performance mantra that is afflicting the rest of American business.

The executives today at those companies serve their shareholders under employment contracts with performance clauses that their corporations refuse to accept in dealing with their government customer. They insist on cost-plus contracts that encourage budget overruns and underperformance, and guarantees against business failure but no reciprocal guarantees by the contractors to perform.

Obama's plan at least is helping to rebalance the acquisition process to put the risk back on the business and not on the government.

[Garrett]

...
A few years ago, I used to say "The mission of NASA is to restrict human access to space." VSE and ESAS convinced me that was either wrong, or had changed. Constellation and now FY2011 are turning me around again.
...

I'd have to completely disagree with that comment. VSE's goal was to get NASA astronauts to the Moon, Mars and beyond. It did not have as its goal to provide human access to space, i.e. in the sense of getting the rest of us off the Earth (if that's what your comment was about). There's a subtle, yet fundamentally important, difference in the two aims.
By the way, Constellation, VSE and ESAS are all synonymous with one another, so you should probably try to avoid talking about them as if they are separate.

FY2011 is much more geared towards getting the rest of us up to space. It's all about changing the procurement process, so that NASA buys a service to space and not a rocket to space. That's probably over simplifying things, but it's not too far off. In practice, NASA will still not be concerned with providing access to space for non NASA astronauts, but the new modus operandi (if it comes to pass) will, in my opinion, be a better architecture for achieving that goal in the long term.

All the above is way off topic, so apologies to the moderators.

Back to Virgin Galactic. Their aim is to provide a joy-ride beyond the Earth's atmosphere. But what a joy-ride! And the legislative and infrastructural challenges involved will hopefully lay down the foundation for pushing out the frontiers for the rest of us. I predict (or I hope) that eventually, maybe in 40 to 50 years (hopefully less!), the gap between the likes of Scaled/Virgin Galactic and SpaceX will be very small, much the same as happened with the gap between mobile telephones, PC's, laptops and personal organisers.
--End of Rant--

[savuporo]

By the way, Constellation, VSE and ESAS are all synonymous with one another, so you should probably try to avoid talking about them as if they are separate.

They absolutely are not synonymous. But this discussion does not belong in this thread.

[zaitcev]

And yet we're supposed to believe that scrapping Constellation in favor of unproven commercial providers will decrease the manned spaceflight gap?  I don't buy the argument that we'll have even a manned Dragon, let alone something like DreamChaser, in less time than it would take to develop even just a civil aircraft.

>Implying that Dragon and DreamChaser are the commercial providers that replace Constellation.
I'm sick of this lie. SICK OF IT.
The replacement for Constellation is Orion-lite on Atlas V/Delta IV - NOT DRAGON.
-- Pete

[bad_astra]

I'm sick of this lie. SICK OF IT.
The replacement for Constellation is Orion-lite on Atlas V/Delta IV - NOT DRAGON.
-- Pete

Despite your illness, I should point out that the replacement for Cx at this point is whatever we end up getting, and experience seems to be limiting my expectations a little more every week.

I do think it most likely that the two vehicles closest to being America's next human space vechicle are Dragon or Orion Lite. Neither are replacements for Cx as it was envisioned and neither have any bearing on a VG discussion, unless they have REALLY bumped up a timetable for Tier 3.

[Chandonn]

Reminder that this is an updates thread for Virgin Galactic.  It is not a discussion thread for Cx/Dragon/Cygnus/Orion.

[Spiff]

Can't seem to find this posted in this thread yet. Maybe I missed it, if so. Apologies. Here goes:

http://www.virgingalactic.com/news/item/virgin-galactic-appoints-its-first-chief-executive/

Virgin Galactic, the US based and regulated Space Tourism Company, is delighted to announce the appointment of George T. Whitesides as its first Chief Executive Officer.

Virgin Galactic, the US based and regulated Space Tourism Company, is delighted to announce the appointment of George T. Whitesides as its first Chief Executive Officer. In this role, Whitesides will guide the business through its transition from a development project to a commercially operational business.

Whitesides joins Virgin Galactic from his recent role as Chief of Staff of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). At NASA, Whitesides was responsible for working to implement the NASA Administrator’s policy agenda and staffing decisions.

Prior to his role as NASA Chief of Staff, Whitesides served as a member of the NASA Presidential Transition Team, Executive Director of the National Space Society, and Chair of the Reusable Launch Vehicle Working Group of the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee. Whitesides’ earlier career experience in the aerospace industry took place at Orbital Sciences Corporation, Blastoff Corporation and the Zero Gravity Corporation. A licensed private pilot and certified parabolic flight coach, Whitesides is a graduate of Cambridge and Princeton Universities and a former Fulbright Scholar.

Welcoming Whitesides, Virgin Galactic President, Will Whitehorn, said: ‘We are delighted that George has agreed to become our first Chief Executive to guide the Galactic project as it transitions into a fully fledged operating business. George brings with him a wealth of experience in space business, policy and regulation. He joins Virgin Galactic at a momentous moment in the development of the company. Test flying of the first SpaceshipTwo (VSS Enterprise) has commenced and our future home at Spaceport America in New Mexico is at an advanced stage of construction. In addition our commercial team has accepted over $65m worth of reservations from 335 future astronauts and the Company is holding deposits of over $45 million.”

Commenting on his appointment, George Whitesides added: “I am honored to be given the opportunity to lead this historic business which will open the experience of space travel to people around the world. There is much to achieve at Virgin Galactic over the coming years as the company moves from the extensive test flying program and FAA licensing process into commercial operation of frequent spaceflights from our new home at Spaceport America in New Mexico. There is a great team at Virgin Galactic and I’m greatly looking forward to growing the business and establishing operations at the Spaceport.”

Virgin Galactic has developed the WhiteKnightTwo and SpaceShipTwo air launched space system over the past six years using technology developed by Scaled Composites based on the X Prize winning SpaceShipOne which was piloted twice into space in October 2004 and now hangs in the Smithsonian Institute in Washington DC. The recently developed SpaceShipTwo is capable of carrying eight people into space. The finished vehicle was officially named VSS Enterprise by Governors Richardson and Schwarzenegger at an unveiling ceremony on the 7th December 2009 before commencing test flights which are now under way in Mojave CA.

Virgin Galactic is the first space company in the world to have developed a network of over 100 accredited sales agents now accepting deposits from participants in 42 countries. Over 50% of Virgin Galactic’s current customers are from the United States.

[Garrett]

Can't seem to find this posted in this thread yet. Maybe I missed it, if so. Apologies. Here goes:

http://www.virgingalactic.com/news/item/virgin-galactic-appoints-its-first-chief-executive/

...
...

It was posted by me several posts back (on the previous page) 

Here's a recent interview with Sir Branson, though very little info regarding Virgin Galactic:
Virgin on space: Sir Richard Branson talks Florida, biofuels and intergalactic holidays
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1281646/Richard-Branson-exclusive-Virgin-boss-space-travel-biofuels.html