XCOR and the Lynx rocket

[Lars-J]

I am sure that they made plenty of mistakes and after the war, everyone is a better general.
I think that they got very far with very moderate levels of funding.

But... have they gotten very far? There hasn't been much to show yet. People who have connections to XCOR (professionally or through friends) always seem to say that are making a lot of progress, with something ready to show soon.

But as a distant observer, I have to admit that I'm not seeing it. Pictures of the hardware so far has hinted at a very slow process, with no completed Lynx anytime soon. So what am I missing here?

[TrevorMonty]

With XCOR finally building flight Lynx, I'm surprised they left. So many years of blood, sweat and tears to leave a few months before test flights start.

[jongoff]

With XCOR finally building flight Lynx, I'm surprised they left. So many years of blood, sweat and tears to leave a few months before test flights start.

I'm not so confident they're only "a few months before test flights start". The latest pictures still didn't have the wings on it. With the slow pace of progress recently, I'm wondering if it'll be in the air (even with runway hops) before the end of next year, unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong, but I've been consistently overoptimistic about their progress so far. I'm still supportive, just putting more caution into my cautiously optimistic.

~Jon

[yg1968]

An update from October:

[Lars-J]

Charles Lurio ( https://twitter.com/TheLurioReport ) tweeted some answers from Greason about his departure:

(1/X) Much news this week on Jeff Greason & XCOR as well as hopes for new "Agile Aero, Inc." E.g. To ques. "Why did you leave XCOR?" Ans..

(2/X) Greason:"Jay Gibson reorg'd such that I no longer managed Lynx, & efforts to pursue next-gen. projects [in] XCOR didn’t find footing."

(3/X) Greason: "[My passion] to contribute to the successful development of space... is as strong as ever, so that’s where I’m headed."

Neither XCOR nor Jeff Greason look great coming out of this, IMO.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Neither XCOR nor Jeff Greason look great coming out of this, IMO.

It is consistent though with the view the CEO expressed in the October video, ie they have to get flying. After all these years, I can't argue with that. BOs successful test flight just reinforces its importance IMHO.

[Elmar Moelzer]

Neither XCOR nor Jeff Greason look great coming out of this, IMO.

It is consistent though with the view the CEO expressed in the October video, ie they have to get flying. After all these years, I can't argue with that. BOs successful test flight just reinforces its importance IMHO.

Cant compare XCOR to Blue. Two very different companies, with very different funding patterns. Irregular and relatively low funding streams mean slower development than regular and relatively high funding streams. And yet it took Blue what? 15 years to get to this point?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Funding models are irrelevant from a customer's point of view. The BO test is significant because they've successfully been to space and thus have significantly more credibility that they will succeed and in the not too distant future.

Granted that in terms of customer experience they are closer to VG than XCOR (probably on price too). But XCOR have been months from finishing Lynx construction for years now. Customer confidence matters.

[Lars-J]

SpaceNews has a new article on this development by Jeff Foust: http://spacenews.com/xcor-co-founders-establish-new-company/

[QuantumG]

The BO test is significant because they've successfully been to space and thus have significantly more credibility that they will succeed and in the not too distant future.

It's 2004 all over again.

[tobi453]

The BO test is significant because they've successfully been to space and thus have significantly more credibility that they will succeed and in the not too distant future.

It's 2004 all over again.

Not yet. They have to repeat it two times and then put it in a museum.

[Gliderflyer]

Another article on Agile Aero:  http://www.geekwire.com/2015/xcor-aerospace-founders-launch-new-startup-agile-aero-for-frontier/

[jongoff]

The BO test is significant because they've successfully been to space and thus have significantly more credibility that they will succeed and in the not too distant future.

It's 2004 all over again.

Not yet. They have to repeat it two times and then put it in a museum.

Pretty sure that never happened.  AFAIK the only thing Blue has in a museum is a little jet engine thing that they played with really early in company history.  I believe that only flew once, but its been a while since I visited the exhibit.

QuantumG and tobi were aluding to how SS1 was suppose to have changed everything with it's X-prize flights in 2004, where they flew three times and then retired to a museum. Unlike SS1 though, I think that New Shepherd is scaled properly so they can actually put it into operational service if it flies reliably enough. SS1 was always too much of a stunt plane for useful operational service. I'm not expecting the suborbital rocket nerd rapture to hit now, but I think the industry is about to become a lot more real (finally).

~Jon

[sdsds]

I imagine the early Lynx passengers would have felt safer had Greason remained in control of Lynx development and test.

[Lars-J]

I imagine the early Lynx passengers would have felt safer had Greason remained in control of Lynx development and test.

Yes, but only for as long as the legend of Jeff "saint" Greason lives on. But at this point, Lynx is not ready. And it won't fly for a while. So when/if it does succeed, it will be *in spite* of Greason, not because of him.

[savuporo]

Yes, but only for as long as the legend of Jeff "saint" Greason lives on.

What "legend" are you referring to ?

[Lars-J]

Yes, but only for as long as the legend of Jeff "saint" Greason lives on.

What "legend" are you referring to ?

The legend of his infallibility, how the man can do no wrong?  Just see the comment section on the SpaceNews article, it is in full force there, explaining how this is great for Greason and XCOR.

[savuporo]

Yes, but only for as long as the legend of Jeff "saint" Greason lives on.

What "legend" are you referring to ?

The legend of his infallibility, how the man can do no wrong?  Just see the comment section on the SpaceNews article, it is in full force there, explaining how this is great for Greason and XCOR.

I don't see any legends. I see people questioning the logic of not accomplishing much and then launching a new venture based on the non-accomplishments. I see people wishing the man well in a new venture - i do, too.
I see completely clueless comments about 'building an orbital RLV'. No, you don't do that with three people without billions of dollars in the bank, especially given the track record. Oh, and no, 'orbital rockets are now easy' is still as clueless as it ever was, but then that's just internet and comments.

[HMXHMX]

So uhhhm, last news report I thought Brian Binnie was supposed to have left VG to be at XCOR.  But his LinkedIn page says maybe not.  I never understood why they wanted to try so many propellants with their engines. 

I always thought XCOR engines were intended to get a vehicle like Spaceship One to a higher performance liquid engine. 

The business case just seemed to stall when Branson formed VG.  The Blue Origin demo last week was likely enough that XCOR has appeared to investors that they have fallen deeply behind in the space tourism game.

Keep an eye out for Agile Aero pilots (figuratively of course).

Brian left Scaled for XCOR, not VG.

[Lars-J]

An update from October:

Wow, I did not get around to watching this video until now. But watching it, it definitely helps explain the schism that appears to have driven a wedge between the new management and some of the founders. A conflict between "we got to fly and be profitable" vs "we need to keep tweaking the design" perhaps...