XCOR and the Lynx rocket

[Jim Davis]

The official story is that they left to pursue other interests, but I wonder if they were forced out.

It's hard to see this in any other light. "Left to pursue other interests" is corporate speak for "we fired the chumps".

I certainly wish Greason, DeLong, and Jackson all the best.

[Elmar Moelzer]

Wow, this is dire news, indeed. I think the company is done. Whenever investors take over from founders, it usually is the end. What does a wallstreet guy know about rockets (or anything else for that matter)?
Best wishes to Greason and the others that left! Hope to see more interesting work from you soon! I guess, I wont be hoping for anything from Xcor now.

[savuporo]

Wow, this is dire news, indeed. I think the company is done. Whenever investors take over from founders, it usually is the end. What does a wallstreet guy know about rockets (or anything else for that matter)?
Best wishes to Greason and the others.

The majority investors in XCOR are not 'wallstreet guys'. I think this change might actually be for the better. Greason's team was probably good early on to get the thing bootstrapped, but to move into operations it is entirely possible that the new team will actually do better.

[Elmar Moelzer]

The majority investors in XCOR are not 'wallstreet guys'. I think this change might actually be for the better. Greason's team was probably good early on to get the thing bootstrapped, but to move into operations it is entirely possible that the new team will actually do better.

So, who are they, then? And I have yet to see a company that got better after the founders left it.

[jongoff]

The official story is that they left to pursue other interests, but I wonder if they were forced out.

It's hard to see this in any other light. "Left to pursue other interests" is corporate speak for "we fired the chumps".

I certainly wish Greason, DeLong, and Jackson all the best.

I don't know for sure, but agree that's definitely what it looks like. You always hear about stories where investors decide to sack the existing team and replace them with their own picks, but it hits closer to home when it's people you know.

~Jon

[jongoff]

Wow, this is dire news, indeed. I think the company is done. Whenever investors take over from founders, it usually is the end. What does a wallstreet guy know about rockets (or anything else for that matter)?
Best wishes to Greason and the others that left! Hope to see more interesting work from you soon! I guess, I wont be hoping for anything from Xcor now.

I wouldn't write XCOR off entirely, even if I can't help but think their odds of making it to flight have decreased somewhat. XCOR has grown a ton since when it was started (up to ~100 employees from what I've heard), and it very well might be the case that new management might be better at the transition to operations. It could also be a huge mistake. Only time will tell, but I've got enough friends still at XCOR that I'll be hoping for their success, even if at the same time I'm sad to see Jeff, Dan, and Aleta shown the door of their own startup.

~Jon

[savuporo]

The majority investors in XCOR are not 'wallstreet guys'. I think this change might actually be for the better. Greason's team was probably good early on to get the thing bootstrapped, but to move into operations it is entirely possible that the new team will actually do better.

So, who are they, then? And I have yet to see a company that got better after the founders left it.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/05/27/xcor-raises-142-million-investment-capital-led-dutch-investors/

That's ~15 Million from the dutch partner. The new board members they got after that are mostly with European software - well, finance software  - and telecom industry backgrounds.

This year,
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/05/22/xcor-receives-funding-chinese-venture-capital-firm/
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/05/26/report-haiyin-capital-invested-5-million-xcor/

That's another ~5M - but these are more of your 'fund manager' types. Definitely not Wall Street though.

[Elmar Moelzer]

The majority investors in XCOR are not 'wallstreet guys'. I think this change might actually be for the better. Greason's team was probably good early on to get the thing bootstrapped, but to move into operations it is entirely possible that the new team will actually do better.

So, who are they, then? And I have yet to see a company that got better after the founders left it.

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/05/27/xcor-raises-142-million-investment-capital-led-dutch-investors/

That's ~15 Million from the dutch partner. The new board members they got after that are mostly with European software - well, finance software  - and telecom industry backgrounds.

This year,
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/05/22/xcor-receives-funding-chinese-venture-capital-firm/
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/05/26/report-haiyin-capital-invested-5-million-xcor/

That's another ~5M - but these are more of your 'fund manager' types. Definitely not Wall Street though.

Well, that is the types I meant. All the same type... Of course none of them know anything about rockets.
So my point remains.
Of course there is always the chance that I am wrong and I really hope that I am.

[HMXHMX]

What Jeff Greason and Dan DeLong are apparently doing next: http://agile.aero

[kch]

What Jeff Greason and Dan DeLong are apparently doing next: http://agile.aero

Sounds promising!  Intriguing logo ...

[Elmar Moelzer]

What Jeff Greason and Dan DeLong are apparently doing next: http://agile.aero

Best of luck to them!

[Jim Davis]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

[docmordrid]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

Different flight regime, horizontal, and no deep pockets billionaire writing checks.

[TrevorMonty]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

Different flight regime, horizontal, and no deep pockets billionaire writing checks.

Even with deep pockets its not easy, taken Blue Origin 15yrs to do it and Virgin are still trying.

[Lars-J]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

Careful.... There are many members of the "church of Jeff Greason" around here. The man can do no wrong. 

[Rocket Science]

What Jeff Greason and Dan DeLong are apparently doing next: http://agile.aero

Sounds promising!  Intriguing logo ...

Indeed... Looks like a version of Shuttle II...

[jongoff]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

Different flight regime, horizontal, and no deep pockets billionaire writing checks.

Even with deep pockets its not easy, taken Blue Origin 15yrs to do it and Virgin are still trying.

Yeah, XCOR's delays and issues are less surprising with their relative level of funding compared to Blue Origin (<1/20th) and Virgin (<1/10th). I still get the feeling that they probably made their fair share of mistakes that made things worse though.

~Jon

[jongoff]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

Careful.... There are many members of the "church of Jeff Greason" around here. The man can do no wrong. 

I may be a member of "The Church of Greason", but that doesn't mean I believe in Greasonal Infallibility. :-)

I'll be the first to admit that while I'm a huge Jeff Greason fan, Jim's question was the first one that popped into my mind as well--if they really have the secrets to fast development of flight vehicles, why was Lynx development so painfully slow?

We don't really know a lot about the inner workings and challenges of XCOR. There may be explanations for why Lynx is running so late, and why Jeff, Dan, and Aleta were all let go that completely absolve them of all mistakes, but those seem only somewhat likely. I really like the three of them, and think they're really talented, but my guess is they probably have a list of lessons learned, mistakes made, etc. that directly led to where we are today. I hope at some point we can get more insight into what they think went wrong (and a few other perspectives as well because objectivity is so hard in situations like this), and what lessons we ought to draw.

I'm not saying that to diss them in any way. Having run a bootstrapped aerospace company now for five years, it's mind blowing how much harder it really is than it seems looking from the outside. I just guess a lot of why I'm so personally curious is that I feel like what I'm trying to do at Altius in some ways parallels what XCOR has tried to do--bootstrap off of contract R&D to get enough experience, clout, and IP to be able to raise the funds to go after bigger projects--and I'd like to make sure I don't step in the same...mud piles.

~Jon

[Elmar Moelzer]

But the integrated vehicles are still developed with older, slower methods.   Agile Aero intends to bring modern rapid prototyping to complete vehicles, for space launch, for hypersonic air vehicles, and for innovative aircraft.

A cynic might wonder why the fine folks at Agile Aero couldn't manage this while at XCOR.

Different flight regime, horizontal, and no deep pockets billionaire writing checks.

Even with deep pockets its not easy, taken Blue Origin 15yrs to do it and Virgin are still trying.

Yeah, XCOR's delays and issues are less surprising with their relative level of funding compared to Blue Origin (<1/20th) and Virgin (<1/10th). I still get the feeling that they probably made their fair share of mistakes that made things worse though.

~Jon

I am sure that they made plenty of mistakes and after the war, everyone is a better general.
I think that they got very far with very moderate levels of funding.

[jongoff]

Yeah, XCOR's delays and issues are less surprising with their relative level of funding compared to Blue Origin (<1/20th) and Virgin (<1/10th). I still get the feeling that they probably made their fair share of mistakes that made things worse though.

I am sure that they made plenty of mistakes and after the war, everyone is a better general.
I think that they got very far with very moderate levels of funding.

And I wouldn't count XCOR as being "done" quite yet. As someone else pointed out somewhere, Masten had a management shakeup 2-3yrs ago (after I left), and is actually doing really well at the moment. Like I did for Rotary Rocket, I'm going to give the team still at XCOR, and Jeff, Dan, and Aleta the benefit of the doubt, and see where things go from here.

~Jon