XCOR and the Lynx rocket

[Kansan52]

In the photos, the prototype seems to being built inside a tent. Would the best guess be to control the enviornment while bonding and other 'fumey' work?

The second picture clearly shows it's run out room. Of course, being a tent they could expand the room.

Sure seems starved for cash. They seem to have progressed further than Rocketplane (before that company became Rocketplane/Kistler) but it seems scary close to having the same fate.

[QuantumG]

Sure seems starved for cash. They seem to have progressed further than Rocketplane (before that company became Rocketplane/Kistler) but it seems scary close to having the same fate.

XCOR is more than cash starved.. they're hand to mouth. This is what "sustainable" looks like.. when Lynx starts pulling in revenue we'll see a different XCOR.

[meekGee]

Sure seems starved for cash. They seem to have progressed further than Rocketplane (before that company became Rocketplane/Kistler) but it seems scary close to having the same fate.

XCOR is more than cash starved.. they're hand to mouth. This is what "sustainable" looks like.. when Lynx starts pulling in revenue we'll see a different XCOR.

Yup.  XCOR's story is the polar opposite of VG.

Careful engineering, discipline, but no star power and no money pouring down from the sky.

There's really no excuse for VGs timeline.  But XCOR's is fully understandable, and admirable.

[simonbp]

It is to a large extent a side effect of XCOR's reliance on actively piloted systems. That worked great when they were flying kitplanes, but margins of safety required for a piloted suborbital vehicle are so much higher that Lynx Mk. I is turning into a money pit. If they had bit the bullet a few years ago and decided to focus on a half-scale, unpiloted Lynx, they'd be racking up the flight hours now and actually earning cash from flying experiments. Instead, they have a half-built hanger queen with no wings yet.

On the other side of the fence (literally, until XCOR finally vacates Mojave), Masten's focus on super-autonomous VTVL has allowed Xombie to become a world-class avionics test facility and the company to become cash-flow positive. It would be ironic (but perhaps not surprising) if the first XCOR engine to reach orbit is attached to a Masten launch vehicle...

[jongoff]

It is to a large extent a side effect of XCOR's reliance on actively piloted systems. That worked great when they were flying kitplanes, but margins of safety required for a piloted suborbital vehicle are so much higher that Lynx Mk. I is turning into a money pit. If they had bit the bullet a few years ago and decided to focus on a half-scale, unpiloted Lynx, they'd be racking up the flight hours now and actually earning cash from flying experiments. Instead, they have a half-built hanger queen with no wings yet.

On the other side of the fence (literally, until XCOR finally vacates Mojave), Masten's focus on super-autonomous VTVL has allowed Xombie to become a world-class avionics test facility and the company to become cash-flow positive. It would be ironic (but perhaps not surprising) if the first XCOR engine to reach orbit is attached to a Masten launch vehicle...

I'm not sure this is a fair characterization. Xombie is an awesome vehicle. It was fun building it, and it gives me a lot of pride that Masten is still flying it, and making a lot of money from flying it. But really, Xombie is only a little higher performance than EZ Rocket or X-Racer. Now, if Masten starts putting Xaero-B through it's paces this year, and can have better luck than Blue Origin on crashes, that might be something.

But I don't think one should write-off what XCOR is doing here. This is their first time doing something this complex, it's a lot more complex than anything Masten has done to-date, and I have a ton of respect for their organization. If I had to place my bets though, I think it'll take a lot of good luck on Masten's part or bad luck on XCOR's part for Masten to beat XCOR to a 60km+ capable vehicle.

Am I still a big fan of VTVL and my old company? Heck yeah. But I think some of this commentary on XCOR, making it sound like a floundering company living hand to mouth seems overly pessimistic for a company that's now up to almost 100 employees (5x what Masten is today), and has raised over $20M in investment money for their vehicle. Am I as optimistic at how soon they'll fly? Not really. But I don't have any doubts they will.

Not sure if that added anything,

~Jon

[TrevorMonty]

The $20m they raised last year is why they building Lynx now. The cash injection allowed XCOR to order all the parts and not worry about how they are going to pay next month's paychecks. If they can show solid progress I expect more money will become available if need be.

[sanman]

XCOR has crossed an assembly milestone in attaching strakes to the Lynx structure:

http://www.satnews.com/story.php?number=920569046&menu=1

The strakes make up a large portion of the Lynx aerodynamic shell. Each strake is partitioned into four independent fuel tanks that are pressurized during flight and supply kerosene to the Lynx engines. Each strake also houses a main landing gear assembly and two reaction control thrusters that the Lynx will use to make attitude adjustments while outside of the atmosphere.

Definition of strake:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strake_%28aeronautics%29

[Lars-J]

sanman, look back in the thread. That strake story was posted 3 days ago, which triggered the recent discussion about their progress (or lack thereof).

But I think some of this commentary on XCOR, making it sound like a floundering company living hand to mouth seems overly pessimistic for a company that's now up to almost 100 employees (5x what Masten is today), and has raised over $20M in investment money for their vehicle. Am I as optimistic at how soon they'll fly? Not really. But I don't have any doubts they will.

~Jon

Jon, but I distinctly recall that several sources (including you? apologies if I'm wrong) were dropping hints that we would see taxi test and an integrated airframe very soon. And this was months ago.

EDIT: some post references (which were nowhere near as specific as I recalled, but still)..
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19033.msg1060504#msg1060504 (2 yrs ago)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19033.msg1166050#msg1166050 (by parabolic arc)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=19033.msg1181134#msg1181134 (1+ year ago, cockpit delivered, argued by XCOR to be a pacing item)

Were the sources wrong or did they exaggerate? Because there seems to be some amount of "re-calibrating" expectations in the last few days. From "XCOR flying any time soon now" to "XCOR doing great just staying in business".

It could be way off base - but that is certainly my impression.

[QuantumG]

Were the sources wrong or did they exaggerate?

No.. there was an unforeseen delay on the wings.

there seems to be some amount of "re-calibrating" expectations in the last few days. From "XCOR flying any time soon now" to "XCOR doing great just staying in business".

I can't speak for Jon, but it's always been my position that XCOR is a business that Jeff keeps above water by sheer force of will and when they fly it should be recognized as not just miraculous, but also inspirational too. Consider that they started this business with nothing but a bunch of hungry mouths to feed and the limits of their credit cards.

[sanman]

Way back - 13 years ago, almost to the week - I remember posting some article about Corona Discharge Ignition. I'd always wondered if Mr Greason found it useful enough to use in one of his engines:

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!search/corona$20discharge$20ignition/sci.space.tech/LH8g_fpQq5g/dEmeq9Fvna0J

I was similarly wondering if it might even be useful for ULA's Integrated Vehicle Fluids engine.

[jongoff]

Jon, but I distinctly recall that several sources (including you? apologies if I'm wrong) were dropping hints that we would see taxi test and an integrated airframe very soon. And this was months ago.

Were the sources wrong or did they exaggerate? Because there seems to be some amount of "re-calibrating" expectations in the last few days. From "XCOR flying any time soon now" to "XCOR doing great just staying in business".

It could be way off base - but that is certainly my impression.

I wasn't trying to drop hints, just make a prediction. One that was obviously, in hindsight, way off. I'm not an XCOR investor, just a friend who gets tours ever few years when I make it out to Mojave. I really did think they were going to be flying last year--they had all the pieces out, I thought, and I didn't expect them to run into all the technical delays that they did. I don't think that XCOR is doing great just staying in business--they are making progress, just a heck of a lot slower than I had thought a few years ago. Some recalibrating of expectations on when they'll be flying is definitely in order--for instance, at this point I'm doubtful their first flight will be before Space Access next April.

Sorry if I made it sound like I had more of an inside track on how things were going there than I did.

~Jon

[Lars-J]

Sorry if I made it sound like I had more of an inside track on how things were going there than I did.

~Jon

Oh, no problem - looking back at your posts I clearly read more into them than what was actually there.

[jongoff]

I can't speak for Jon, but it's always been my position that XCOR is a business that Jeff keeps above water by sheer force of will and when they fly it should be recognized as not just miraculous, but also inspirational too. Consider that they started this business with nothing but a bunch of hungry mouths to feed and the limits of their credit cards.

I think they're doing a little better than that recently, but that was where they were at for a long time. But I agree that part of why I want to see XCOR successful is to show that you don't have to have a founder with net worth >$250M to have a shot of success. Showing that you can bootstrap an aerospace company far enough to be able to raise money then bring a non-trivial capability to market is important for getting more investment into the market.

I also have non-selfish reasons for wanting them to be successful (namely that I'm friends with many of the core team and want to see their hard work pay off).

~Jon

[Robotbeat]

My selfish reason for wanting them to succeed is that their mode of operations (should they succeed in beginning operations) probably has the best chance of getting cost-per-passenger-to-Karman-Line down to around the ~$10k/person range eventually, a level that I could probably muster up enough money for when I retire (without losing the trust of my wife).

[BrightLight]

One more piece of the Lynx build:

http://www.xcor.com/press/2015/15-06-09_XCOR_Selects_Matrix_Composites_to_Develop_Lynx_Chines.html

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/06/09/xcor-selects-matrix-corp-supply-lynx-chine-panels/

looking forward to seeing this bird at the Von Karman line!

[JazzFan]

That is one pretty bird. 

[manboy]

Sure seems starved for cash. They seem to have progressed further than Rocketplane (before that company became Rocketplane/Kistler) but it seems scary close to having the same fate.

XCOR is more than cash starved.. they're hand to mouth. This is what "sustainable" looks like.. when Lynx starts pulling in revenue we'll see a different XCOR.

Yup.  XCOR's story is the polar opposite of VG.

Careful engineering, discipline, but no star power and no money pouring down from the sky.

There's really no excuse for VGs timeline.  But XCOR's is fully understandable, and admirable.

We have no way of knowing that.

[Katana]

New $5M from VC, no cash starvation now.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2015/05/26/chinese-venture-firm-haiyin-capital-is-investing-in-space-company-xcor/

[ChrisWilson68]

New $5M from VC, no cash starvation now.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2015/05/26/chinese-venture-firm-haiyin-capital-is-investing-in-space-company-xcor/

$5 million really isn't very much for a program to build a passenger ship going to space.  I wouldn't say it's enough to say there's no more cash starvation for Lynx.

[Star One]

New $5M from VC, no cash starvation now.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2015/05/26/chinese-venture-firm-haiyin-capital-is-investing-in-space-company-xcor/

$5 million really isn't very much for a program to build a passenger ship going to space.  I wouldn't say it's enough to say there's no more cash starvation for Lynx.

They seem to think it's an amount that will get them much closer to completion so hardly insignificant.