XCOR and the Lynx rocket

[sdsds]

Can someone list off the predictions of year by year?

Here's one:

Greason, February, 2011: "Will fly when it is safe to fly."

I'd be surprised if you found very many statements, earlier or later than that, which were much different.

[manboy]

Can someone list off the predictions of year by year?

This is the press release from when Lynx was first announced.

http://xcor.com/press/2008/08-03-26_Lynx_suborbital_vehicle.html

For years the initial test flight was always two years away.

[QuantumG]

Can someone list off the predictions of year by year?

This is the press release from when Lynx was first announced.

http://xcor.com/press/2008/08-03-26_Lynx_suborbital_vehicle.html

For years the initial test flight was always two years away.

Welcome to the reality of shoestring development. If ya think you can do better, feel free to max out your own credit cards. That's literally what XCOR has been running on for years.

[Robert Thompson]

Does anyone know the annual budget for VG and XCOR?

[manboy]

Can someone list off the predictions of year by year?

Here's one:

Greason, February, 2011: "Will fly when it is safe to fly."

I'd be surprised if you found very many statements, earlier or later than that, which were much different.

Greason and representatives from XCOR Aerospace have listed timelines many occasions. Slips kept occurring so often that I eventually lost interest in the project.

March 2008 - "XCOR Aerospace Suborbital Vehicle to Fly Within Two Years"

February 2010 - "The Mark I is expected to begin flight test in early 2011."

Feburary 2011 - "work is coming along nicely on building the first test flight vehicle which the company hopes to fly by the end of the year."

April 2011 - "Early next year, we will make the first sub-orbital flight, after which the final development will speed up tremendously. According to our schedule, we will be ready for commercial take-off by the end of 2013."

August 2011 -

August 2012 - "The first test flights could begin as early as the end of this year."

September 2013 - "We're now working toward a rollout in late 2013 or, more likely, early next year."

Currently XCOR is planning on doing their initial test flights this winter. Personally I'm curbing my enthusiasm until I see something actually take off.

Can someone list off the predictions of year by year?

This is the press release from when Lynx was first announced.

http://xcor.com/press/2008/08-03-26_Lynx_suborbital_vehicle.html

For years the initial test flight was always two years away.

Welcome to the reality of shoestring development. If ya think you can do better, feel free to max out your own credit cards. That's literally what XCOR has been running on for years.

Maybe you should tell Greason that.

[Robotbeat]

I don't get the impatience here, unless you're a paying customer. They're trying to do something that hasn't really been done before, i.e. regular suborbital manned spaceflight for a price that even a (sufficiently motivated) middle class person could afford. They're kind of in a race with Virgin Galactic, who many thought was so far ahead for many years that XCOR's effort was laughable (although I think XCOR's concept of operations is definitely superior). Both companies have faced the inevitable sort of delays you get in this industry, but both are still above water and it seems likely to me that at least one will succeed.

Sit back from the keyboard, relax, and revel in the thought that this is even happening at all and not just some scifi fantasy. Jeff Greason has often said "It'll be ready when it's ready" when asked by persistent reporters. If people ask them when they're expecting to do whatever, I don't think it is dishonest if they say what their internal predictions are. Railing against them for being off in their estimate is pointless. QuantumG is right: if you're not actively doing something to make the future happen, then you have no right to complain about delays.

[QuantumG]

It seems to be taking so long, I've not been too sure why they wanted to develop so many engines with different fuels.  If you are a small biz, wouldn't a one fuel strategy be a little more affordable/take less time? 

Either way the engine demos have been superb.  Any flight is sure to be all over the front page news.

It's work for hire. They have to pay the bills.

[TrevorMonty]

They had a large cash injection recently which should speed things up. Last I heard they had all the bits to put the first vehicle together and were hoping to start testing by Christmas. Testing will start with taxiing under power then build up to flights, so don't expect to much to start with. There will most likely be the usual problems found while testing which add delays. Hopefully nothing that sends them back to the drawing board.

[a_langwich]

The original statement was that XCOR was four years behind their own predictions, and indeed the link http://xcor.com/press/2008/08-03-26_Lynx_suborbital_vehicle.html, issued by XCOR, does say two years after 2008.

What I don't get is why the fawning over Jeff Greason and XCOR and the animosity toward Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic.  You take it personally when someone suggests XCOR made wrong predictions, and assume some grave insult has been dealt to Greason, when over on the Space Ship Two thread someone says Branson has excessive ego--which IS a direct personal attack--and a dozen posts chime in agreeing, without a shred of evidence given or asked (and undoubtedly without an iota of personal knowledge from anyone involved).  There's a double standard here.

Above, statements like "cut some slack, what they are doing is hard" and "what right do you have to be impatient, unless you are a paying customer"  and "he's doing instead of waiting, what are you doing?" apply equally in both cases, but they'll get thrown out in a heartbeat here, and only show up after dozens and dozens of posts in the Space Ship Two thread (and it was probably me saying it).   

I get that people like Jeff Greason's honest, straightforward approach.  I like it too.  It's the way I want to conduct business.  But it's also fair to say Branson's enthusiastic vision-casting predictions, and his past history of delivering on said predictions sooner or later, are a part of why Virgin Galactic can raise the funds that XCOR has lacked.  In fact, the XCOR subsidiaries in Europe and China which are busily signing up customers, are likely making glowing (non-contractual) predictions much like Branson.  (See the April 2011 link above, which was a Branson-like prediction made by a person in sales for XCOR.)  People will take shot after shot at Branson for his lack of technical expertise, but you won't hear a whisper against Greason for his lack of fundraising and financial expertise.  People only talk in this thread about XCOR's engines, which are its one bright spot, while they only talk about Space Ship Two's engine, which is its one struggle.  Truth is, without an airframe and flight tests, there's no evidence XCOR has closed the design performance either, and Greason may know that--"turn out to be complicated"--but people have assumed everything would be wonderful if he had the money.

[Chris Bergin]

Yeah, thread trimmed. The edited above is pretty fair and the END to that conversation (don't test me on that).

I have to say it's incredibly boring to have to deal with posts that I see as an attempt to kill a thread. My patience for such on a Monday morning is borderline at best.

[parabolicarc]

I have no idea what was edited/deleted, so I'm taking a shot in the dark here on a Monday morning....

If you ask XCOR about the delays, they'll tell you that they got hit by the Great Recession after announcing Lynx in 2008. They were in survival mode and unable to raise money and make much progress on the vehicle for about two years.

They will also tell you the more recent predictions were optimistic. Taking longer to get the elements of the ship designed, manufactured and assembled. It is what it is. XCOR are assembling the first Lynx as we speak in the hangar in Mojave, so things are moving forward.

XCOR has generally not made as many predictions as Virgin Galactic. And I think when they do, they genuinely believe what they're saying. They have been significantly off on all that, which they have no trouble admitting.

With Branson and Attenborough in particular, they've said a lot of things over the years. And I know that their statements have often been at odds with realities on the ground here in Mojave. I knew it, and I'm not even working on the program. Whether they are ill informed and genuinely believe what they're saying or they were merely spinning, I don't know. If they're ill informed, they have a problem with their folks in Mojave not giving them honest assessments. After a decade, you'd think someone would have done something about that.

As long as the discussion is focused on missed deadlines, the larger issues are ignored. To get Branson into space by February or March is a very rushed flight test program. Is that safe? Nobody I talk to thinks so. They believe it's crazy.

[Robert Thompson]

I used every prediction of date, implicit or explicit, as a separate data point. I get XCOR converging to air early second half 2014. They'll have to make more year-out predictions to move that forward.

Whoever said 2008 financial crisis, thank you. That explains more than most.

Edit: Disclosure: My full investment in XCOR is one black polo with XCOR logo that hangs in my closet and I do not recall the last time I wore. But I think Greason is the Ben Franklin of New Space. Someone else might be Jefferson.

[corrodedNut]

Andy Sullivan hits hole in one on KLM Open ... and her prize is a trip to space!

Andy Sullivan is on the moon after he landed his hole in one at the KLM Open space travel.

The English accomplished the feat in the 163-yard 15th hole on Sunday, and hit shot into contention at -12 in the Netherlands. It is the first time such an award has been featured in a golf tournament. A life-size model of the spacecraft (a Lynx Mark I) which will be in orbit Sillivan shown next to the 15th green.

When asked if he was going to make the trip, Sullivan said, "I'm still not sure, I'll see what he says the lady!"

The 28-year-old is in the 216th place in the world and has never won a European Tour title.

Sullivan pushed the ball two shots behind leader Paul Casey, but the prospect of the rocket launch may be playing on his mind more.

"With this award we want to create awareness among the public that space is now also accessible for everyone," said Michiel Mol XCOR space expeditions, who have offered the prize worth around 100,000.

'Travel to space can be made from the end of 2015 already have 300 reservations.'

[a_langwich]

I have no idea what was edited/deleted, so I'm taking a shot in the dark here on a Monday morning....

If you ask XCOR about the delays, they'll tell you that they got hit by the Great Recession after announcing Lynx in 2008. They were in survival mode and unable to raise money and make much progress on the vehicle for about two years.

Yes, and the same recession affected VG, too.  In addition, they had the matter of lobbying for, designing, and building a spaceport, which they successfully accomplished.  And an explosion that killed three employees and injured three others.

My point wasn't that delays were unreasonable, it was that XCOR's delays are "it is what it is" and VG's delays become "more incompetence at VG, another embarrassment for that idiot Branson."

They will also tell you the more recent predictions were optimistic. Taking longer to get the elements of the ship designed, manufactured and assembled. It is what it is. XCOR are assembling the first Lynx as we speak in the hangar in Mojave, so things are moving forward.

Yes, after you've passed a deadline it's pretty easy to admit the prediction was optimistic. 

XCOR has generally not made as many predictions as Virgin Galactic. And I think when they do, they genuinely believe what they're saying. They have been significantly off on all that, which they have no trouble admitting.

You are comparing XCOR's head engineer against VG's marketing team.  That's not a fair comparison.  Of course the engineer will be more loathe to issue predictions and more conservative in making them.  And XCOR hadn't sold tickets for a while, so it had considerably less pressure for the first part of the time frame, and indeed Greason probably never sells tickets.  One would hope the engineering side of a company would not be working the marketing/PR angle as hard as the marketing/PR side.  Somebody has to sell tickets, and to sell tickets people will want to know "when am I going to be able to fly" and after the sale "are we there yet?  are we there yet?  are we there yet?"

As long as the discussion is focused on missed deadlines, the larger issues are ignored. To get Branson into space by February or March is a very rushed flight test program. Is that safe? Nobody I talk to thinks so. They believe it's crazy.

Why do you think Branson is going into space by February or March?  Surely, given everything you've just said about Branson and predictions, Branson and Mojave mismatches, you can draw a different conclusion.  The most reasonable inference is NOT that Branson will fly when he says and thus the flight test program will be rushed, it's that Branson will once again miss a deadline and the flight test program will be safe and reasonable.  And if that's the case, isn't that the same story as last week, and the week before, going back at least a half decade?  So why is that "the larger issue"?  Isn't that most likely just another missed deadline?  Come on, the wide-eyed wonder that Branson would be wrong is wearing a bit thin.

I'll agree, Branson really should say "it will be ready when it's ready" to the public, and a whole lot of unprintable things and some deadlines to VG and Scaled in private, tied to pay and/or employment.  And he probably should find a chief engineer he can trust who can manage the program better, and have them ready, because it seems likely at this point that some people need a change of scenery.  And truth is, if VG and Scaled can't find a way to make their boss look a little bit better soon, there will be a lot of people getting a change of scenery.  Scaled might stagger on for a little while, but what successes has it had since Rutan retired?

Don't think XCOR wouldn't get hit by the fallout if Branson decided to pull his money out of suborbital.  If you are a fan of the suborbital space industry, you really should be rooting for VG as well as XCOR, lest there be a ".sub bust".  Conversely, if Branson does succeed, XCOR will benefit greatly from positive PR and positive perceptions of suborbital trip providers.  For Branson, as he probably knows, all the delays and mispredictions will be forgotten by the public if he successfully gets the product going, in the same way all of Hubble's cost overruns and delays have been forgotten, and the way JWST's likely will too, once it is launched.

Back to the semi-present, when XCOR finally finishes the first Lynx in the hangar in Mojave, then they can roll it out and be where VG was five years ago.  You may suppose they'll have an easier time of it in flight testing, but that's just a supposition.  These vehicles really are pioneering very different flight profiles from anything done before, so it's reasonable to expect the unforeseen hiccups.

[QuantumG]

Yes, and the same recession affected VG, too.  In addition, they had the matter of lobbying for, designing, and building a spaceport, which they successfully accomplished.  And an explosion that killed three employees and injured three others.

My point wasn't that delays were unreasonable, it was that XCOR's delays are "it is what it is" and VG's delays become "more incompetence at VG, another embarrassment for that idiot Branson."

That's the difference between having hundreds of millions of dollars and a billionaire to draw from, vs operating on the founder's credit cards and the kindness of strangers.

I thought Chris shut down this line of discussion.

[Star One]

It seems that ten percent of the passengers who have signed up with Xcor are Chinese nationals.

Du Xiyong, vice-president of XCOR's exclusive booking agency in China, Dexo Travel, says his company was surprised by its success selling tickets on China's biggest e-commerce site, Taobao.

"Most people have never heard of private space flights," he says.

"We hoped to boost awareness in China via Taobao, which boasts tens of millions of users. We didn't expect to sell any tickets on the platform. But the results exceeded our expectations.

"Spaceflight isn't like buying a luxury brand car or visiting beaches to enjoy oneself. It's more like a challenge for one's mind and spirit."

http://www.space-travel.com/m/reports/Galactic_getaway_999.html

[Lars-J]

New(?) pictures of LYNX at SpaceRef: http://spaceref.biz/company/lynx-spacecraft-development-in-pictures.html

EDIT: these images show the 'Wing Strake' components built by FiberDyne: http://www.aero-news.net/getmorefromann.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=040f7855-abd6-45f9-a515-ceed142ca150

EDIT 2: I replaced the images with the full resolution ones from http://www.xcor.com/pressimages/ - the image names now indicate when the fuselage pictures were taken. (Aug 11 2014)

Image credit:  XCOR Aerospace / Mike Massee

[TrevorMonty]

Article says Lynx is coming together, but no mention of when flight testing will start. It is probably a good thing not to give timelines, VG do and are always having to change them.

[Vultur]

Image credit:  XCOR Aerospace / Mike Massee

Looks cool. Is this the first vehicle for the test flights?

[QuantumG]

Image credit:  XCOR Aerospace / Mike Massee

Looks cool. Is this the first vehicle for the test flights?

Yes, it's the only vehicle right now