XCOR and the Lynx rocket

[Lar]

I wonder what happens now with all the people who put down deposits to book flights on Lynx.  Does XCOR have the financial resources to pay them back?  Will they refuse refunds, claiming the program is still underway, just more slowly than before?  Will there be lawsuits?  Will that bankrupt XCOR?

Probably depends on what the deposit agreement says. It probably says something like  "this is a risky venture, it's possible that you will not be able to redeem the deposit, you take all the risk of that and we don't owe refunds under any circumstances" in legalese....

[jongoff]

I wonder what happens now with all the people who put down deposits to book flights on Lynx.  Does XCOR have the financial resources to pay them back?  Will they refuse refunds, claiming the program is still underway, just more slowly than before?  Will there be lawsuits?  Will that bankrupt XCOR?

Probably depends on what the deposit agreement says. It probably says something like  "this is a risky venture, it's possible that you will not be able to redeem the deposit, you take all the risk of that and we don't owe refunds under any circumstances" in legalese....

A lot also depends on how XCOR handled those deposits. I wouldn't be surprised if they had both a non-refundable portion that was rolled into the business, and a refundable portion that was held in some sort of escrow, specifically in-case they needed to refund passengers.

~Jon

[ChrisWilson68]

I wonder what happens now with all the people who put down deposits to book flights on Lynx.  Does XCOR have the financial resources to pay them back?  Will they refuse refunds, claiming the program is still underway, just more slowly than before?  Will there be lawsuits?  Will that bankrupt XCOR?

Probably depends on what the deposit agreement says. It probably says something like  "this is a risky venture, it's possible that you will not be able to redeem the deposit, you take all the risk of that and we don't owe refunds under any circumstances" in legalese....

The thing is, in the U.S. legal system there are limits to how much protection a company can get by having customers sign away their rights.  If a company takes customer money in return for a service and then doesn't provide that service, it doesn't really matter what the customer has signed, the courts are very likely to force the company to refund the money, at the least.

If the company goes completely bankrupt, that's one thing.  Or if a company is still seen to be making its best effort to provide the service it promised, then it might be hard to force them to give a refund.  But in the case of XCOR you have a company that is still a going concern that has chosen to stop spending most of its resources on the program that would provide the services already paid for and instead put the resources into other projects.  If a court is convinced the company accepted money to provide a service it is no longer making a good-faith effort to provide, I think they'll be forced to provide full refunds.

[parabolicarc]

I always thought the Rocketplane project with a modified Learjet was the way to get up and going fast. Well there still are a lot Learjets sitting around and XCOR  has a great engine so...

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=c22c3ab9-32bc-4c3d-8d0a-58f6a9fd040e

Not really. From what I've heard, once the engineers started running the numbers, they found modifying a Lear jet wouldn't work very well.

[Donosauro]

Well that looks like suborbital contenders Virgin Galactic, XCOR, Armadillo Aerospace, and Kistler are all pretty much down the drain, are there any serious suborbital hopefuls left?

Kistler was orbital.

[QuantumG]

Kistler was orbital.

Rocketplane Kistler was first one and then the other.

Also, the Benson Space Company was going to do suborbital with the Dream Chaser.

[TruthIsStranger]

It's unfortunate.

VG has a great plane but a problematic engine. Lynx has a great engine but a problematic plane. I am not sure which one is better.

It would be great to know your sources for that statement. Has XCOR ever provided a video of a full Lynx mission duration burn with one, let alone the four planned chambers? Isn't the foursome 15K lb thrust class? Hasn't VG shown video of full duration with a 60K lb thrust motor?

[manboy]

Could be worse, at least XCOR has a revenue source.

[ChrisWilson68]

Could be worse, at least XCOR has a revenue source.

Do you mean the ACES engine for ULA?  They're one of three contenders to provide an upper-stage engine that won't fly until 2023 at the earliest.  Their two competitors are well-funded.

It's something, but not a lot to base an entire company on.

[Rocket Science]

I always thought the Rocketplane project with a modified Learjet was the way to get up and going fast. Well there still are a lot Learjets sitting around and XCOR  has a great engine so...

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=c22c3ab9-32bc-4c3d-8d0a-58f6a9fd040e

Not really. From what I've heard, once the engineers started running the numbers, they found modifying a Lear jet wouldn't work very well.

Which numbers, economic or performance?

[TrevorMonty]

Jeff Foust has series of tweets about this.

They are concentrating they resources on LOX/LH engine development, for ULA I'm guessing.
Lynx is on back burner (mothballed more likely).

[parabolicarc]

I always thought the Rocketplane project with a modified Learjet was the way to get up and going fast. Well there still are a lot Learjets sitting around and XCOR  has a great engine so...

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=c22c3ab9-32bc-4c3d-8d0a-58f6a9fd040e

Not really. From what I've heard, once the engineers started running the numbers, they found modifying a Lear jet wouldn't work very well.

Which numbers, economic or performance?

Performance. Re-entry. Would need mods. Stuff like that.

[Rocket Science]

I always thought the Rocketplane project with a modified Learjet was the way to get up and going fast. Well there still are a lot Learjets sitting around and XCOR  has a great engine so...

http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?do=main.textpost&id=c22c3ab9-32bc-4c3d-8d0a-58f6a9fd040e

Not really. From what I've heard, once the engineers started running the numbers, they found modifying a Lear jet wouldn't work very well.

Which numbers, economic or performance?

Performance. Re-entry. Would need mods. Stuff like that.

Thanks for the reply. What I had in mind would have began with their basic idea but would have taken a few steps further by the use of a wing glove leading edge extension such as what NASA used on the F-16XL
XCOR XR-5M15 LOX / Methane Rocket Engine (possibly with more chambers "twin pack ala X-15")
RCS as was used on the NF-104A
TPS where required.
re-engine to turbofan.
conformal fuel tanks.
This would all depend on which model Lear your started with...

[Space Ghost 1962]

Could be worse, at least XCOR has a revenue source.

Do you mean the ACES engine for ULA?  They're one of three contenders to provide an upper-stage engine that won't fly until 2023 at the earliest.  Their two competitors are well-funded.

It's something, but not a lot to base an entire company on.

It is enough to recoup investments from. Takes a smaller team. Other potential customers/acquirers. Product has significant advantages over rivals.

And other firms have focused on just engines before.

As to the other two competitors, one is really not much of a competitor by choice, and the other has too much on its plate at the moment - easily distracted. Excellent time to go "heads down" to win on a single product and broaden domestic sales to 3-4 not 1.

Nothing is ever certain til it is.

[Robotbeat]

XCOR does have synergy with the integrated fluids of ACES, so that might make sense.

[ChrisWilson68]

Could be worse, at least XCOR has a revenue source.

Do you mean the ACES engine for ULA?  They're one of three contenders to provide an upper-stage engine that won't fly until 2023 at the earliest.  Their two competitors are well-funded.

It's something, but not a lot to base an entire company on.

It is enough to recoup investments from.

Is it?  Maybe, maybe not.  I don't think we have the evidence to decide that.

Even if long-term it would be enough to recoup the investment in developing that engine, the engine won't fly until 2023 at the earliest.  There's no guarantee ULA will ever even fly Vulcan Centaur, let alone move on to Vulcan ACES.  There's no guarantee XCOR will win the contract even if Vulcan ACES flies.  And -- it flies in 2023 at the earliest.  The development program won't last that long.  I can see that maybe they're getting some development funds from ULA and the Air Force, but I don't see how that can last them until it flies in 2023.

I think at best ACES buys them some time to look for other streams of revenue.

Takes a smaller team. Other potential customers/acquirers. Product has significant advantages over rivals.

They might have some advantages, but they also have some major disadvantages.  Blue Origin is already the first choice of ULA for their first stage Vulcan Engine.  It's less of a risk to ULA to depend on a single supplier for both engines than to depend on two suppliers.  And Blue Origin has financial stability.  Big companies don't like to become dependent on small companies that might go under.  Particularly after this round of layoffs, ULA might be skittish about making their launcher depend on a company that might not make it.  And ARJ has a long-standing supplier relationship with ULA, and is more diverse and financial-stable.  All big disadvantages for XCOR.

And other firms have focused on just engines before.

As to the other two competitors, one is really not much of a competitor by choice, and the other has too much on its plate at the moment - easily distracted.

I don't buy that.  Lots of companies do far more than that and have no problem executing on it.

Excellent time to go "heads down" to win on a single product and broaden domestic sales to 3-4 not 1.

I don't see an easy path to broaden sales.  Who else besides ULA is going to buy a hydrogen engine?

Nothing is ever certain til it is.

Sure, but that doesn't mean we can't usefully peg some things as riskier than others.

[Space Ghost 1962]

XCOR's engine is a better fit for certain customers requirements than other hydrolox engines.

XCOR's engine team has a more singular focus than its rivals.

XCOR's capex is in effect tired of waiting for ATK's seemingly impossible to produce wings ... can't do Lynx w/o them ...

[Archibald]

So who is the winner in the end ? Blue Origin !

The other day I did a quick "Blue Origin" search across The Space Review (which was created by Jeff Foust  in 2003-2004)

Well, B.O was in stealth mode for 10 years at least.
Noone really cared about them.
Their COTS and CCDEv bids seemed pathetic and NASA ranked them pretty low.
Meanwhile on the manned suborbital race no-one would have betted a cent on them, not with VG and XCOR aparently making good progresses.
Then B.O hit rock bottom in 2011 when one of their test vehicles blew up in flight.
And the final nail in the coffin was that they build a capsule, the horror when compared to Rocketplane, VG or XCOR sexy space planes.

Then all of sudden in April 2015 they come out of nowhere and near the end of the year even managed the luxury  to beat SpaceX at the great game of recovering a rocket stage (admitedly, not the same performance envelope, but I don't think History will matter)

My kudos to Jeff Bezos. He managed to trump all the suborbital amazing peoples for a good decade. Talk about hare and turtle story.

[ChrisWilson68]

XCOR's capex is in effect tired of waiting for ATK's seemingly impossible to produce wings ... can't do Lynx w/o them ...

I believe there was information suggesting the wings hadn't been delivered yet because XCOR couldn't pay for them.

[parabolicarc]

XCOR's capex is in effect tired of waiting for ATK's seemingly impossible to produce wings ... can't do Lynx w/o them ...

I believe there was information suggesting the wings hadn't been delivered yet because XCOR couldn't pay for them.

One wing had been built as of last month. XCOR needed to pay for the production and delivery of the other wing.