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#20
by
rdale
on 21 May, 2009 22:54
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Satellite loops tell us what happened in the past - they are not predicting the future...
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#21
by
DeanG1967
on 21 May, 2009 22:55
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#22
by
rdale
on 21 May, 2009 22:55
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Satellite loops tell us what happened - that's not a forecast of what's going to happen...
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#23
by
DeanG1967
on 21 May, 2009 23:01
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I disagree. The low center is West Southwest of the Cape. Track is East North East and pulling moisture with it. While looking at the loop is past...it does very much tell with some certainty the future.
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#24
by
rdale
on 21 May, 2009 23:21
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It's part of the input I use into making my forecast, but it certainly isn't something that would make me say the weekend is a complete washout.
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#25
by
Paul Adams
on 22 May, 2009 07:17
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Looking at Edwards for Sat and Sunday, the forecast is for windy weather, up around 20 knots.
Perhaps we will see a White Sands landing againafter all these years!
Pure speculation of course!
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#26
by
marshallsplace
on 22 May, 2009 07:31
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FWIW here's a satellite snap over Florida:
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#27
by
MKremer
on 22 May, 2009 08:03
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Melbourne long range. Rain is still generating well offshore and all headed NW.
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#28
by
Analyst
on 22 May, 2009 08:28
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Perhaps we will see a White Sands landing againafter all these years!
Let us hope we don't.
Analyst
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#29
by
shuttlefanatic
on 22 May, 2009 08:51
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What a mess. Latest SMG forecast followed by slightly worse aviation TAFs. I know it costs time and money, but I'm betting on a road trip to Edwards for me early Saturday morning.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
302 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 22 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/22/09
TIME: 1402Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - FRIDAY 05/22/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
KSC FEW020 BKN040 BKN120 7 10012P19
TSRA WI 30NM
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
KSC FEW020 BKN040 BKN120 7 10012P19
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT150 BKN250 7 23010P17
AFT 17Z WIND 23016P23
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN100 7 21007P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS/XWIND
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SATURDAY 05/23/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 SCT070 BKN150 7 13010P16
CHC SHRA/TSRA WI 30NM CHC BKN070
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23009P15
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23012P20
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN120 7 23005P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
KTTS 220808Z 08008G17KT 030V140 7SM FEW009 BKN018CB OVC040 22/22 A2993 RMK CB E AND DSNT N-DSNT E-DSNT SE MOV NW
KTTS 2202/2302 12012G20KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 BKN050 OVC250 510005 QNH2995INS
BECMG 2206/2207 12015G25KT 8000 -SHRA BR SCT015 BKN025CB OVC055 QNH2992INS
TEMPO 2207/2210 11015G25KT 6000 -SHRA BR VCTS SCT015 BKN020CB OVC055 QNH2996INS
TEMPO 2210/2215 11018G28KT 4800 -TSRA SCT015 BKN020CB OVC050
BECMG 2214/2215 11015G25KT 8000 -SHRA BR VCTS FEW015 SCT025CB BKN070 OVC150 QNH2993INS T26/2219Z T21/2209Z
KEDW 220755Z 21012KT 30SM FEW250 18/04 A2986 RMK AO2A SLP069 T01790036 403230152
KEDW 2202/2302 22020G25KT 9999 FEW060 520009 QNH2980INS
BECMG 2203/2204 22012G18KT 9999 FEW060 510009 QNH2983INS
BECMG 2205/2206 22012KT 9999 SKC QNH2985INS
BECMG 2217/2218 24012G18KT 9999 FEW060 FEW150 QNH2986INS
BECMG 2221/2222 24020G30KT 9999 FEW060 FEW150 520009 QNH2979INS T32/2222Z T16/2213Z
KHMN 220755Z AUTO 06003KT 10SM SCT044 OVC080 17/12 A3001 RMK AO2 DZB0705E0716 SLP093 P0000 T01730118 $
KHMN 2205/2303 20009KT 9999 OVC100 QNH2992INS
BECMG 2218/2219 18015G25KT 9999 VCTS BKN070CB BKN120 BKN200 520009 QNH2980INS
TEMPO 2219/2301 VRB25G35KT 8000 -TSRA 530009
BECMG 2302/2303 17012G18KT 9999 -SHRA SCT050 BKN080 BKN120 BKN200 QNH2985INS T26/2222Z T17/2212Z 220518 AUTOMATED SENSOR METWATCH 2206 TIL 2214
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#30
by
psloss
on 22 May, 2009 10:12
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Looking at Edwards for Sat and Sunday, the forecast is for windy weather, up around 20 knots.
The forecast is for winds almost right down the runway, which would be acceptable.
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#31
by
psloss
on 22 May, 2009 10:35
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What a mess. Latest SMG forecast followed by slightly worse aviation TAFs. I know it costs time and money, but I'm betting on a road trip to Edwards for me early Saturday morning.
Depending on how long they're willing to wait on orbit, you might want to keep Sunday open, too.
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#32
by
rdale
on 22 May, 2009 11:23
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Just go home and enjoy your Friday - there's nothing to see here today
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#33
by
ItsyAndy
on 22 May, 2009 11:54
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As rdale said :-) Wave off for today, and not considering EDW. Guess they still hope for the weekend at KSC.
Ciao!
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#34
by
shuttlefanatic
on 23 May, 2009 06:17
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Aviation TAFs don't bode well for KSC today... Winds look ok for Rwy 15, but ceiling, rain, and lightning violate landing criteria.
EDW is windy but forecast well within headwind limits until later in the day.
KTTS 230600Z 12009G19KT 080V150 8SM FEW018 FEW060 SCT080 BKN150 OVC270 22/22 A2997 RMK OCNL LTGIC DSNT NE-DSNT SE CB DSNT NE-DSNT SE MOV NW
KTTS 2302/2402 12010KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 FEW040 BKN150 QNH2996INS
TEMPO 2303/2307 13010G20KT 8000 -SHRA BR VCTS SCT012 BKN025CB OVC070
BECMG 2310/2311 14010G15KT 9000 -SHRA BR VCTS FEW012 BKN025CB OVC070 QNH2998INS
TEMPO 2313/2318 14015G22KT 6000 -TSRA SCT012 OVC025CB
BECMG 2321/2322 12010G15KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT040 BKN150 QNH2997INS T26/2318Z T21/2310Z
KEDW 230555Z 22013KT 30SM FEW150 19/03 A2989 RMK AO2A SLP082 T01880032 10294 20188 52012
KEDW 2302/2402 23025G30KT 9999 FEW040 FEW150 520009 QNH2981INS
BECMG 2302/2303 23015G22KT 9999 FEW050 FEW150 QNH2986INS
BECMG 2306/2307 22009KT 9999 FEW150 QNH2993INS
BECMG 2318/2319 23010G15KT 9999 SCT150 QNH2983INS
BECMG 2321/2322 24020G25KT 9999 SCT150 520009 QNH2980INS T32/2322Z T14/2311Z LAST NO AMDS AFT 2308 NEXT 2610
KHMN 230555Z AUTO 19003KT 10SM OVC120 13/12 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP126 60008 T01340123 10193 20134 53002 $
KHMN 2215/2311 24009KT 9999 OVC030 QNH2998INS
BECMG 2216/2217 20010G15KT 9999 OVC030 QNH2993INS
BECMG 2220/2221 18015G25KT 9999 VCTS BKN090CB QNH2990INS
TEMPO 2300/2304 6000 -TSRA OVC120CB
BECMG 2303/2304 13009KT 9999 NSW FEW070 QNH2996INS T22/2221Z T14/2308Z 221522 LAST NO AMDS AFT 2215 NEXT 2311
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#35
by
psloss
on 23 May, 2009 10:18
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The SMG forecast from a few hours back:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0The biggest change I see is for the Sunday KSC forecast, which looks worse (i.e., doesn't improve much from recent conditions).
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
217 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 23 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/23/09
TIME: 1317Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SATURDAY 05/23/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT020 BKN040 BKN120 7 12008P14
TSRA WI 30NM
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT025 BKN045 BKN120 7 13010P16
TSRA WI 30NM
THIRD OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT025 SCT050 BKN120 7 13010P16
TSRA WI 30NM CHC BKN050
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23009P15
SECOND OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23009P15
THIRD OPPORTUNITY
EDW FEW250 7 23012P20
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT060 BKN120 7 23005P10
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+2 - SUNDAY 05/24/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT025 BKN050 BKN150 7 11010P16
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 23009P15
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT120 SCT250 7 29005P09
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... ANVIL/LIGHTNING/PRECIP
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#36
by
shuttlefanatic
on 23 May, 2009 13:43
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Latest SMG update that covers Sunday and Monday. I know NASA likes to "keep options open" and run things down to the wire, but I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday... and that's really pushing to the limit.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
800 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 23 2009
LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-125
EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 05/24/09
TIME: 1411Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+2 - SUNDAY 05/24/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT025 BKN050 BKN150 7 11010P16
TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 20007P12
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SCT120 SCT250 7 29005P09
SLGT CHC TSRA WI 30NM
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG/LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... ANVIL/LIGHTNING/PRECIP
U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+3 - MONDAY 05/25/09
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT035 BKN150 7 15007P12
CHC TSRA WI 30NM
EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 20007P12
NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR FEW250 7 30005P09
FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... LIGHTNING/PRECIP/TS
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
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#37
by
rdale
on 23 May, 2009 13:54
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I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday
Expectation? No. But much better look to Sun/Mon weather at KSC than today? Certainly.
Edwards is completely beautiful the next two days, so there should be no concern about getting her down when needed.
I really am surprised about all the posts from people worried about the shuttle being up there an extra day or two. It really isn't that big of a deal, and I don't understand why the worry...
I will be off on vacation for the holiday so will let psloss take over from here.
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#38
by
stockman
on 23 May, 2009 13:59
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I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday
I really am surprised about all the posts from people worried about the shuttle being up there an extra day or two. It really isn't that big of a deal, and I don't understand why the worry...
I am shaking my head at this too today. Way too much worry about an extra day especially around the mmod risks... This has been way overblown... I would expect it from main stream media to overblow this but quite frankly it is almost a non issue... I was very surpised to read the comments by people on this forum being so concerned.. (note I am not saying it is NOT an issue... its just one that has been there forever anyway but only recently has been grabbed in the main stream as something that is supposed to be an extreme risk.... its the same risk it has always been)... I say enjoy the extra day in orbit... Wish I was so "inconvenienced" as the astronauts are.... lol..
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#39
by
shuttlefanatic
on 23 May, 2009 14:23
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I don't see where there's a significant expectation for a KSC landing until Monday
I really am surprised about all the posts from people worried about the shuttle being up there an extra day or two. It really isn't that big of a deal, and I don't understand why the worry...
I am shaking my head at this too today. Way too much worry about an extra day especially around the mmod risks... This has been way overblown... I would expect it from main stream media to overblow this but quite frankly it is almost a non issue... I was very surpised to read the comments by people on this forum being so concerned.. (note I am not saying it is NOT an issue... its just one that has been there forever anyway but only recently has been grabbed in the main stream as something that is supposed to be an extreme risk.... its the same risk it has always been)... I say enjoy the extra day in orbit... Wish I was so "inconvenienced" as the astronauts are.... lol..
I know this is drifting a bit OT for this thread, but I'll explain my initial comment - It's backed mostly by frustration over the entirely selfish desire to get a clear decision for an EDW landing so I can get up there to see it
As an aviator myself, I've often put off weather "go/no-go" decisions until the last reasonable moment, so I totally understand the thinking here.
Having said that, Atlantis is in the position of needing to get down at some point, as opposed waiting to go up. There are risks, however slight, to staying up, but the question in my mind is what the cost-benefit is to wait until Monday (as the current mindset seems to suggest) vs. landing at EDW Friday because KSC looked crummy for the duration. It's been variously quoted that an EDW landing costs as much as $2M and delays processing flow by a week. If in fact things do get pushed until Monday, landing will have been delayed by 3 days, plus ground crew costs (what's the cost delta for a day of MCC ops?), and it's possible they'll wind up at EDW anyway.
I'm done now and will keep editorializing out of future weather posts
As an aviator myself, I've often put off weather "go/no-go" decisions until the last reasonable moment, so I totally understand the thinking here.