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STS-125: Launch Weather
by
rdale
on 04 May, 2009 19:07
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#1
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 04 May, 2009 19:14
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What about Moron, Spain... our only TAL site? Is it too early for a first look at that site?
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#2
by
rdale
on 04 May, 2009 19:21
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#3
by
robertross
on 04 May, 2009 22:46
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AWEsome. Thanks!
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#4
by
rdale
on 07 May, 2009 03:17
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Can't find any reason for concern still in the weatherworld... High pressure overhead, light winds, and HOT temps. I still can't rule out a little shower popping up, but the first half of the week looks very dry to me. USAF has a 30% chance of rain Monday afternoon with a 20% chance of lightning, but even that seems too high for me to agree with.
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#5
by
rdale
on 08 May, 2009 13:34
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Morning check looks good - nothing really changes for my Monday outlook. USAF dropped their rain chance from 30 to 20% so that shouldn't be a concern. The only thing might be a little more cloudiness as a result of the sea breeze, but it's not something they could wait out.
SMG has a chance of showers at Moron, but no other forecasting source has that threat (and again that's not something I have the slightest clue about so I won't add my thoughts.)
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#6
by
orbiterfan
on 08 May, 2009 14:59
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Will the forecasted weather conditions cause the launch noise to be loud or muted?
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#7
by
mixologist07
on 08 May, 2009 18:54
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it's hard to say; the biggest things that will affect sound are temperature and humidity. the more dense the air, the better the sound will travel, but it's not a huge difference either way.
the more important thing is wind. STS-123 was very calm, and the sound was unbelievable from the press site; STS-124 was fairly windy, and the sound was a less loud
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#8
by
rdale
on 09 May, 2009 13:32
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Still good at KSC, and SMG has reduced the rain threat at Moron to "slight chance of shower" vs "chance of shower" yesterday.
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#9
by
SgtBulldog
on 09 May, 2009 23:12
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What kind of weather in Spain would cause a scrub? Cumulus clouds over the landing site?
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#10
by
rdale
on 09 May, 2009 23:14
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CONTINGENCY FLIGHT RULES
Weather criteria for an emergency landing must be considered along with launch criteria since the possibility exists for a Return To Launch Site abort (RTLS), landings at the Trans-Oceanic Abort Landing Sites (TAL), the Abort Once Around (AOA) sites and the first day Primary Landing Site (PLS). These forecasts are prepared by the NOAA National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group in Houston and briefed by them to the astronauts, Flight Director and Mission Management Team. All criteria refer to observed and forecast weather conditions except for the first day PLS which is forecast weather only.
* For RTLS with redundant Microwave Landing System (MLS) capability and a weather reconnaissance aircraft, cloud coverage 4/8 or less below 5,000 feet and a visibility of 4 statute miles or greater are required. For AOA and PLS sites, cloud coverage 4/8 or less below 8,000 feet and a visibility of 5 statute miles or greater is required. For TAL sites, cloud coverage 4/8 or less below 5,000 feet and a visibility of 5 statute miles or greater are required.
* For landing on a hard surface runway without redundant Microwave Landing System (MLS) capability all sites require a ceiling not less than 10,000 feet and a visibility of at least 7 statute miles. Landing at night on a lake bed runway may occur if the ceiling is not lower than 15,000 feet and the visibility is 7 miles or greater with at least non-redundant MLS capability .
* For the RTLS site and TAL sites, no thunderstorms, lightning, or precipitation within 20 nautical miles of the runway, or within 10 nautical miles of the final approach path extending outward to 30 nautical miles from the end of the runway.
* An RTLS rule exception may be made for light precipitation within 20 nautical miles of the runway if the specific criteria listed below are met:
a.) The tops of the clouds containing precipitation do not extend into temperature regions colder than 41 (F.); they have not been colder than 14 (F. ) within 2.5 hours prior to launch; the radar reflectivity is less than 30 dbz at all levels within and below the clouds.
b.) Precipitation covers less than 10% of the area within 20 nautical miles of the runway, or multiple heading alignment circles are clear of showers.
c.) The movement of the showers is observed to be consistent and no additional convective development is forecast.
d.) Touchdown/rollout criteria and associated navigational aids meet the specified prelaunch go/no go requirements.
If showers exceed either parameter of part a.) above, an RTLS landing may still occur if a 2 nautical mile vertical clearance can be maintained from the top of any shower within 10 nautical miles of the approach paths.
* For RTLS and TAL sites, no detached opaque thunderstorm anvils less than three hours old within 15 nautical miles of the runway, or within 5 nautical miles of the final approach path extending outward to 30 nautical miles from the end of the runway.
* For AOA and PLS sites, no thunderstorms, lightning or precipitation within 30 nautical miles of the runway, or within 20 nautical miles of the final approach path extending to 30 nautical miles from the end of the runway.
* For RTLS and the TAL sites, no detached opaque thunderstorm anvil cloud less than 3 hours old within 15 nautical miles of the runway or within 5 nautical miles of the final approach path extending outward to 30 nautical miles from the end of the runway.
* For AOA and PLS sites, no detached opaque thunderstorm anvil cloud less than 3 hours old within 20 nautical miles of the runway or within 10 nautical miles of the final approach path extending to 30 nautical miles from the end of the runway.
* The RTLS crosswind component may not exceed 15 knots. If the astronaut flying weather reconnaissance in the Shuttle Training Aircraft executes the approach and considers the landing conditions to be acceptable, this limit may be increased to 17 knots. For the TAL, AOA and PLS sites there is a night-time crosswind limit of 12 knots.
* Headwind: not to exceed 25 knots.
* Tailwind: not to exceed 10 knots average, 15 knots peak.
* Turbulence: conditions must be less than or equal to moderate intensity.
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#11
by
SgtBulldog
on 09 May, 2009 23:22
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Wow, thanks!
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#12
by
bigboy_99
on 10 May, 2009 13:33
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Weather has been updated!! There is now a 90% chance of good weather for launch. Only concern is cumulus clouds in the area. Lets pray they stay out of the area!!
Here is the link to the updated forecast from Patrick AFB.
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#13
by
psloss
on 10 May, 2009 13:44
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#14
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2009 10:14
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#15
by
elmarko
on 11 May, 2009 10:17
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Slight concern for showers at Moron? What about other things? Clouds/wind? How likely is a TAL-related scrub today (this is going to decide whether I go home early for the launch...)
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#16
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2009 10:26
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Slight concern for showers at Moron? What about other things? Clouds/wind? How likely is a TAL-related scrub today (this is going to decide whether I go home early for the launch...)
That's the only concern noted in the link; the current forecast is:
MORON...SPAIN
MRN SCT035 BKN250 7 26009P14
SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20 NM
Check back later on (closer to T-0), but given the circumstances, this weather forecast still seems favorable.
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#17
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 11:10
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#18
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 11:22
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#19
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2009 11:47
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SMG out with updated forecast; no significant changes.
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#20
by
toram
on 11 May, 2009 12:41
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Regarding the weather flight rules for TAL -- Yesterday's post was a bit dated and I didn't find anything more recent on a public NASA site.
Ceilings must be greater than 5000'
Visibility greater than 5 miles
Crosswind limits are 15 kts (no change for night time)
Headwind limit is 25kt
Tailwind limit is 10 kt for the average and 15 kt on the peak.
No showers within 20 nautical miles but there are some may be allowed under certain conditions if the tops are not colder than -20 deg C (similar to RTLS rainshower rules).
Nice loop of clouds for Europe is here
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/VIS006/BW/CENTRALEUROPE/index.htmI always enjoy this thread
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#21
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 13:01
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Clouds decreasing at Moron... Scattered at 3400ft and 4600ft, winds from the WSW at 14mph. The higher clouds had been Broken for the past few hours.
LEMO 111300Z 25012KT 200V300 9999 SCT034 SCT046 23/15 Q1013 NOSIG
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#22
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 13:37
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The USAF forecast for Monon has added a chance of a rain shower, but ends that threat at 18Z.
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#23
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2009 14:21
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#24
by
mooora
on 11 May, 2009 15:23
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#25
by
Chris Bergin
on 11 May, 2009 15:28
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Nice and sunny here.... just saying
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#26
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 16:05
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Still green at Moron: LEMO 111600Z 24013KT 190V280 9999 SCT037 SCT056 22/15 Q1013 NOSIG
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#27
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 11 May, 2009 16:13
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Nice and sunny here.... just saying
And here at Kennedy!
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#28
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 16:58
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STA reports no cumulus clouds really building up around the area but nothing of concern. They checked out the area around the brush fire and the smoke isn't moving towards area. They flew over the cloud right over the pad but it didn't have any moisture.
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#29
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:02
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STA says clouds near pad continue to dissipate.
Moron continues to improve.
LEMO 111700Z 23011KT 200V270 9999 FEW031 SCT042 22/15 Q1013
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#30
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:10
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STA says everything south of 39B is pretty clear, they are climbing up a little higher and headed towards the north side to investigate those clouds.
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#31
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:18
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NASA947 says it doesn't appear the sea breeze has set up, the clouds which were north are settling to the south. They are headed into them to determine tops / bases.
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#32
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 11 May, 2009 17:20
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Wow. It sure looks like the sea breeze front. But then again, looks can be deceiving. Thanks for the update Rdale
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#33
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:22
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#34
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:30
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For the radar / photog team: Wind speed of 10.9kts at 114 degrees. Deviation of 12 degrees, lapse rate of -1.99*C.
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#35
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:31
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Some clouds extend in a band from west of pad over to LCC, he's headed north to check those clouds out.
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#36
by
psloss
on 11 May, 2009 17:33
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Just looking at the local radar, the smoke from the fire well north of the area that he was talking about is pretty visible on that.
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#37
by
ChrisGebhardt
on 11 May, 2009 17:36
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Pretty good looking cloud overhead a few minutes ago. Appears to be tracking south.
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#38
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:43
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STA says 33 might be the better choice although he hasn't done dives.
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#39
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:44
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Temps near if not above 90 across KSC...
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#40
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:46
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Clouds overhead have retreated about 1/4mi north, looks to him as if it's dissipating too.
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#41
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:51
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Cloud overhead of LCC still has moisture in it, but appears to be dwindling. However it's within 5mi radius.
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#42
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:51
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Tops on clouds 8mi north of pad are 17000ft, but it's not really moving. STA taking a drive up that way.
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#43
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 17:53
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Cloud still appears to be dissipating overhead.
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#44
by
rdale
on 11 May, 2009 18:58
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Stationary thunderstorm has popped up near MLB, showers developing to the northwest as well, all along the sea breeze it looks like.
