Author Topic: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...  (Read 112310 times)

Offline Jim

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #220 on: 01/22/2010 09:05 pm »
It may be practical in the long run to move Spacex operations abroad and just build launchers in the United States, California. There may be advantages to moving operations somewhere else.

Why?  it mostly supporting the US gov't.  Also what advantages?  none.  Also there would be ITAR issues.  Further more, if it did move, it couldn't launch US Gov't payloads if it wasn't a US operator.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2010 09:09 pm by Jim »

Offline yg1968

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #221 on: 01/24/2010 03:51 am »
This Orlando Sentinel article of a couple of weeks ago states that Obama intends to fund commercial crew with an amount of $3B over 4 years:

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_space_thewritestuff/2010/01/commercial-space-could-add-1700-florida-jobs-but-numbers-may-be-high.html 

Quote
Obama administration officials and aerospace industry executives say that the White House is considering investing up to $3 billion in commercial space over four years as part of a revamping of the agency’s current human space exploration plans.

The employment figures are based on a survey of several companies, including United Launch Alliance (a joint venture of The Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp.), Sierra Nevada Corporation, SpaceX and “others that have all built space hardware and are potential participants in a competitive Commercial Crew Program, which would feature multiple winners including both smaller and larger aerospace companies.”
« Last Edit: 01/24/2010 04:03 am by yg1968 »

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #222 on: 01/24/2010 06:51 pm »
This is as good as place as any.

The US Government is at a cross roads.  There are many talented, AND FRUSTRATED, engineers and scientists who are upset with where space flight in the United States is going.

It won't be long until countries that want a HSF program start hiring these kids out of college or with minimal experience and then develop indigenous programs in said country.  Moreover, this will become more and more appealing as third world countries will want nuclear powered spacecraft.  They will do things the US Government cannot stomach.

It is sad really.  It isn't all gloom and doom, it is a reality check for NASA and the government.  Who would have thought Ares I would be axed?  Who would have thought DIRECT would have ever been given serious consideration?  Who would have thought a republican would have won in Massachusetts?

It is up to the US government to allow commercial spaceflight, otherwise, someone else will allow it and we will become the way of the Roman empire. 
You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

Online docmordrid

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #223 on: 01/25/2010 04:31 am »
^^---- what he said!
DM

Offline Serafeim

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #224 on: 01/25/2010 09:58 am »
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704375604575023530543103488.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond

Quote
  White House Decides to Outsource NASA Work

   

I really hope thats true....give Elon  the money to build fast the escape tower,and ofcourse scrap Ares I....
I think the above obama desicion is a mark for the Ares I...I think this rovket has no meaning to exist if goverment gives extra boost to musk to build las tower...

Offline yg1968

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #225 on: 01/25/2010 01:53 pm »
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704375604575023530543103488.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsSecond

Quote
  White House Decides to Outsource NASA Work

   

I really hope thats true....give Elon  the money to build fast the escape tower,and ofcourse scrap Ares I....
I think the above obama desicion is a mark for the Ares I...I think this rovket has no meaning to exist if goverment gives extra boost to musk to build las tower...

Only $200M for commercial crew for FY 2011 according to that article.

Quote
Under the White House proposal, the agency's top-line budget is expected to stay close to the $18.7 billion in the current fiscal year. Only a small portion—roughly $200 million—is likely to be slated for the initial phase of opening up NASA's manned space exploration program to private firms. However, that initiative is expected to cost a least $3.5 billion—and potentially much more—over the next five years.
« Last Edit: 01/25/2010 01:54 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Jim

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #226 on: 01/25/2010 01:58 pm »

Only $200M for commercial crew for FY 2011 according to that article.


That is a lot for the first year

Offline ugordan

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #227 on: 01/25/2010 02:13 pm »
Amazing how quickly one goes from just hoping there is a commercial crew program at all to saying it "only" got $200 M...  ::)

Offline yg1968

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #228 on: 01/25/2010 02:37 pm »
My concern is that commercial crew will only be funded if there is enough money for the HLV. In other words, if there isn't enough money because of budget cuts, commercial crew might not get funded. But if you guys says it's a lot, I will take your word for it.
« Last Edit: 01/25/2010 02:42 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Jim

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #229 on: 01/25/2010 02:43 pm »
My concern is that commercial crew will only be funded if there is enough money for the HLV. In other words, if there isn't enough money because of budget cuts, it might not get funded. But if you guys says it's a lot, I will take your word for it.

It can't be spent right away.   It will take some time to determining the contracting method and putting together an RFP.  And then there is the selection process.  Once on "contract", the first tasks and payments aren't going to be big.

Offline notsorandom

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #230 on: 01/25/2010 06:37 pm »
For the first year $200 million is quite a bit. Orbital Sciences Corporation got $175 million and SpaceX got $278 million total in COTS. What those companies have done with their COTS money so far has been impressive. It will be interesting to see how this new funding gets split up and who gets it.

Offline Jim

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #231 on: 01/25/2010 06:44 pm »
For the first year $200 million is quite a bit. Orbital Sciences Corporation got $175 million and SpaceX got $278 million total in COTS.

They didn't get it all at once or within a span of one year

Offline Marsbug

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #232 on: 01/25/2010 07:32 pm »
Does this stand much chance of getting past congress? If congress kills this and the white house won't/can't fund the POR....? I hope that question isn't too political for this thread.
'We came in peace, for all Mankind' Consider that phrase and all it implies.

Offline robertross

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #233 on: 01/25/2010 08:08 pm »
Does this stand much chance of getting past congress? If congress kills this and the white house won't/can't fund the POR....? I hope that question isn't too political for this thread.

Well someone will have to pass something. Without shuttle, you are sort of tied: Commercial or Soyuz. You pick. ISS needs something more than promises.

Of course there's the HLV, but that would (and should) be considered a non-optimized, 'need only' basis.


Offline MrTim

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #234 on: 01/25/2010 09:02 pm »
Does this stand much chance of getting past congress? If congress kills this and the white house won't/can't fund the POR....? I hope that question isn't too political for this thread.
Mini civics lesson follows (because you asked and because this stuff keeps being asked... I'll keep it short and let's not discuss the details as that would drag the thread off-topic into the Twilight Zone of beltway politics... )

1. For something to become law in the U.S. it must be written-up as a bill in congress, the bill must pass (with exact same text) in both the house and the senate (by simple >50% majority) and then must be signed into law by the President.

2. Sometimes the house and senate each pass different bills on the same subject... when this happens, they must go to reconciliation (meeting between house and senate to agree on a unified compromise bill) the result of such a compromise then goes back to both bodies for a vote (see item #1)

3. In the senate only, there is a procedure whereby a senator can tie something up for an essentially unlimited time (the founders intended the senate to be able to cool-off things that might be attempted with too much haste by the house) this is called a filibuster. A filibuster can be broken by a super-majority vote of 60/100ths of the senate.

4. If both the house and senate pass a bill but the president either vetoes it, or does a "pocket veto" (refuses to sign it by just ignoring it, stuffing it into his pocket) the house and senate can vote to override his veto. This is tough to do, for reasons not important here... mix of numbers and politics.

5. The house and senate have many things under consideration, so they have created committees to work on various subjects. The Chairperson of each house committee, and the majority of committee members are from the party that holds the majority in the house, likewise for the the senate. Committee chairpersons have a great deal of power because the majority backs them up, they set schedules, pick witnesses, etc. The committees spend more time on their particular subjects than the rest of congress, so people not on a particular committee will often depend on committee members to tell them which way they should vote on related issues.

Hopefully, this will enlighten the curious as to where that "60 vote" magic comes from, why the election in MA was important, and why it is so hard to predict NASA's future when the President is not actively driving it as JFK and LBJ did.

Perhaps a separate thread somewhere could be setup to explain U.S. govt as related to spaceflight, and keep keep a reference set of data on historical budget/party in white house/parties in congress etc. Not partisan rants, just cold explanations and historical facts for common reference... would be interesting to see similar threads for ESA and Russia...

back to space talk...  ;)

Offline notsorandom

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #235 on: 01/25/2010 09:50 pm »
They didn't get it all at once or within a span of one year
Exactly! The COTS money was parsed out over a few years. So $200 million represents quite an initial investment and as Jim said its a lot for the first year.

I'm sure we all remember that Rocketplane Kistler was originally selected as one of the two contractors. NASA spent something like $32 million on them. They couldn't meet their goals so their contract was canceled and the money given to Orbital Sciences. Although few specifics have come out about this new plan I'm sure that the government will pursue a similar strategy to COTS and make funding contingent on progress rather then awarding a lump sum all at once.

Offline Antares

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #236 on: 01/28/2010 03:30 am »
2. Sometimes the house and senate each pass different bills on the same subject... when this happens, they must go to reconciliation (meeting between house and senate to agree on a unified compromise bill) the result of such a compromise then goes back to both bodies for a vote (see item #1)

4. If both the house and senate pass a bill but the president either vetoes it, or does a "pocket veto" (refuses to sign it by just ignoring it, stuffing it into his pocket) the house and senate can vote to override his veto.

You mean "conference" or "conference committee" not reconciliation.  The latter refers only to budget bills.

Pocket veto only works within 10 days of a Congressional recess.  Otherwise the bill becomes law.

Sorry it's OT, but the post needed correction.
« Last Edit: 01/28/2010 03:30 am by Antares »
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline yg1968

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #237 on: 02/01/2010 04:35 pm »
Quote
Through an open competition, NASA has awarded Space Act
Agreements to:
Blue Origin of Kent, Washington;
The Boeing Company of Houston, Texas;
Paragon Space Development Corporation of Tucson, Arizona;
Sierra Nevada Corporation of Louisville, Colorado; and
United Launch Alliance of Centennial, Colorado,
for the development of crew concepts, technology demonstrations, and investigations for future commercial support of human spaceflight.

We will be discussing these awards in more detail, and introducing you to the space pioneers behind them tomorrow at our event at the National Press Club.

Page 6:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/420994main_2011_Budget_Administrator_Remarks.pdf

« Last Edit: 02/01/2010 04:40 pm by yg1968 »

Offline mr. mark

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #238 on: 02/01/2010 05:30 pm »
Does this mean that spacex gets no funding for human spaceflight?

Offline ugordan

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #239 on: 02/01/2010 05:32 pm »
It means - if I understand this - that SpaceX already has a Space Act Agreement. Plus, this is $50 million, while SpaceX already has a $1.6 billion cargo contract.

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