Author Topic: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...  (Read 112312 times)

Offline Swatch

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COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« on: 04/29/2009 06:44 pm »
Ok, so sorry bout the baseball reference, but it seemed appropriate...

COTS D - Commercial Human Spaceflight to get at least $80m

NASA and the White House have agreed for the first time to release money to the human spaceflight option in its Commercial Orbital Transportation Services, or COTS program.

Under an agreement hammered out with the White House, NASA announced today on Capitol Hill that it will provide the COTS program with $150 million of the $400 million for human exploration given to NASA under President Barack Obama's stimulus plan.

continued at link below...

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_space_thewritestuff/2009/04/cots-d-commericial-human-spaceflight-to-get-150m.html

My Take:

Looks like $80m for a flight demo with ~$70m additional possible.  This combines for a drop in the pan relative to the $250m CxP gets out of it, but it helps and is the right direction at least.  Sadly, as it says in the article, "The $250 million for Constellation is unlikely to help speed up the program, which is already about $2 billion over budget, according to NASA documents."

The part I like is the $42m for a docking system... maybe a standardized, low-cost docking system can come out of it.

Also I wonder how much this says about a possible uneasiness with the current direction of CxP.

Commercial spaceflight enthusiasts... Enjoy!
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 06:49 pm by Swatch »
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Offline NUAETIUS

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #1 on: 04/29/2009 07:23 pm »
Under an agreement hammered out with the White House, NASA announced today on Capitol Hill that it will provide the COTS program with $150 million of the $400 million for human exploration given to NASA under President Barack Obama's stimulus plan.

150 Million?  Just for reference COTS awards to date.

Rocketplane Kistler $207 million
SpaceX  $278 million
Orbital Sciences Corporation $170million

As designated at this point the 150 million will be split up this way

crewed launch demo $80 million
new docking system to the international space station $42 million
cargo transportation demo $20 million
miscellaneous aspects of the COTS program $8 million

I hate to look a gift horse in the mouth, but could someone enlighten me on how this would work? 

Of this 150 million that has been set aside, how much would actually be awarded to the COTS D bidders? 

Would Nasa be the one to develop the "new docking system" or would that be bid out to a contractor?

It looks like only 80 Million at most would be available to be bid out to COTS D bidders.  If that is the case then SpaceX would get 40 and (Hopefully) Orbital would get the other 40 million.  Is that enough money to design, test, and manufacture a new LAS?
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 07:24 pm by NUAETIUS »
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Offline Patchouli

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #2 on: 04/29/2009 07:42 pm »


It looks like only 80 Million at most would be available to be bid out to COTS D bidders.  If that is the case then SpaceX would get 40 and (Hopefully) Orbital would get the other 40 million.  Is that enough money to design, test, and manufacture a new LAS?


Does COTS-D still require a maximum of seven crew?

Also keep in mind an OSC vehicle competing for COTS-D can't be like Gemini.
It needs a transfer tunnel,WCS, and be able to carry people within the 95% height percentile.
Not sure if they can get a COTS-D vehicle unless given more then 40M.

As for a docking system a CBM or LIDS/APAS seem like the only viable options.
Making a new one from scratch is going to cost far too much and they have to use what ISS has anyway.
Leaving an adapter that is incompatible with other vehicles on one of the CBMs would disrupt ISS operations for Spacex and JAXA.
As for an LAS they could use a cut down version of Orion's to save on R&D.
Since Oribal is already building Orion's LAS this actually would be one of the cheaper parts for their COTS-D vehicle since a lot of R&D is already paid for.

Their biggest problem by far is the performance of Taurus II and trying to find more for COTS-D.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 07:59 pm by Patchouli »

Offline libs0n

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #3 on: 04/29/2009 07:52 pm »
My interpretation of this, and this is just conjecture, would be that it would entail an unmanned demo, and due to the size of the amount we're talking about, only SpaceX would be in the position to win these awards.  The demo would be of this modified Dragon with the new docking system and other things, perhaps with the cargo transport demo occurring on the same mission.  I have in my head the idea of something akin to a crash test dummy on board to record data on the crew experience through ascent docking and reentry, but that's just an imaginative thought.  Remaining elements for actual crew delivery, like a LAS and ground infrastructure, would occur only after more money is to be allocated under COTS D, if ever.  Put that way, I'm not upset about the paltry size of the award; this just being a stone on the road to an eventual operational system, and a means to establish credibility for that further funding.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 07:55 pm by libs0n »

Offline bad_astra

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #4 on: 04/29/2009 07:57 pm »
CBM won't be viable for COTS-D, at least not as a lifeboat option. There are other viable COTS-D proposals out there, but its hard to imagine anyone else wanting to take a bid at it for 80 mil.
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #5 on: 04/29/2009 08:07 pm »
CBM won't be viable for COTS-D, at least not as a lifeboat option. There are other viable COTS-D proposals out there, but its hard to imagine anyone else wanting to take a bid at it for 80 mil.

$80m could pay for yet another study from one of the big boys.
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #6 on: 04/29/2009 08:10 pm »
"While acting NASA administrator Chris Scolese told Congress today that the $80 million for a "crewed launch demo" is not technically COTS D"

Hum, what the H*** does that mean any way? Maybe we are talking about a program from LM/Boeing for EELV adaptation of the Orion.

Could they put a Orion simulator on a Delta IVH or Atlas 5xx and shoot it off a'la Ares I-X for $80 million?
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 08:15 pm by Norm Hartnett »
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline William Barton

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #7 on: 04/29/2009 08:18 pm »
I would expect the $42mln for the docking system would be for actual hardware relating to the existing docking system, rather than development of a new one. SpaceX (and whoever) would get hardware and manuals, and maybe the loan of a technician familiar with it. $80mln might be enough for them to complete the "mannable" features of Dragon, but I can't see the LAS coming out of that money. Maybe an unmanned launch and recover with some animal cargo aboard to show it can work. At which point money for the LAS would be forthcoming. WAGs, of course.

Offline libs0n

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #8 on: 04/29/2009 09:49 pm »
The cargo Dragon is berthed with the robotic arm, so one would imagine that the new docking system proposed would consist of something like the LIDS docking interface and an automated maneuvering and docking system to the station for the Dragon.  SpaceX had a video of a proposed manned mission that featured a docking to a Pressurized Mating Adapter, rather than a berthing, so this method would presumably be what they plan for in their manned version.  The cargo demonstration of this award could perhaps consist of a LIDS to APAS adapter being brought along the crew demo, which would likely take place in a post-shuttle era.

$50 million for the docking system and "other" would leave $100 million for the crew and cargo demo, which is in line with the per flight cost of a Falcon 9/Dragon in the CRS awards.

edit: screen caps from said vid showing docking location and interface.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 10:04 pm by libs0n »

Offline robertross

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #9 on: 04/29/2009 09:54 pm »
Nice to see something. Can't beleive it's so small an investment. Crazy.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #10 on: 04/29/2009 10:01 pm »
CBM won't be viable for COTS-D, at least not as a lifeboat option. There are other viable COTS-D proposals out there, but its hard to imagine anyone else wanting to take a bid at it for 80 mil.

$80m could pay for yet another study from one of the big boys.

T/space if they are still around probably would.

But really this does show COTS-D needs extra funding and COTS it'sself so far has been a pretty good deal.

I mentioned the CBM and LIDS but it occurred to me the Russian docking system might be more desirable from a mass standpoint.
I know it's narrow and is not androgynous but it's tested, light weight and probably very cheap to manufacture.

Soyuz is a very lightweight vehicle when you really think about it esp considering it's ancient underpinnings.

The RDS could be a way for OSC to get a COTS-D entry based off Cygnus without having to request money for a new upper stage.
That and letting them enter a three place vehicle maybe something with a shuttlecock/discoverer shaped reentry vehicle.
Still I wonder how much work would it take to put a Centaur on Taurus II such an upgrade probably would put it on equal ground with F9.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2009 10:14 pm by Patchouli »

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #11 on: 04/30/2009 01:25 am »
Hopefully they will allow companies to use existing rockets (ie some company simply does spacecraft design while ULA concentrates on manrating an LV)  not sure that Lockheed or Boeing would make such a craft, perhaps spacecraft designers like Space Systems/Loral would design the spacecraft (or perhaps Orbital could launch a manned derivative of Cygnus on an EELV)  My point is that the competition should not seek to develop a new LV, instead it should foster US commercial manned spacecraft development.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2009 01:26 am by Ronsmytheiii »

Offline libs0n

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #12 on: 04/30/2009 07:02 pm »
Crew Rescue Vehicle functionality.  Either the demo itself, or an acquisition after the demo.

Offline mlorrey

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #13 on: 05/04/2009 04:03 am »

T/space if they are still around probably would.

But really this does show COTS-D needs extra funding and COTS it'sself so far has been a pretty good deal.

I mentioned the CBM and LIDS but it occurred to me the Russian docking system might be more desirable from a mass standpoint.
I know it's narrow and is not androgynous but it's tested, light weight and probably very cheap to manufacture.

Soyuz is a very lightweight vehicle when you really think about it esp considering it's ancient underpinnings.



The big public brouha is the idea of paying more money to the russians, or even the chinese, when millions of american workers are being laid off. Getting an American solution would definitely help the Obama administration eliminate a major political liability.

From what I've seen the Dragon is designed to use the old Universal docking mechanism but they have stated they are able to use whatever docking mechanism a customer requires:

http://www.spacexpla.net/blog/?cat=12
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Offline yg1968

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #14 on: 05/09/2009 10:28 pm »
Here's Scolese's explanation of the $150 million for commercial crew (which isn't part of COTS-D):

Quote
SCHIFF:
    Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
    Administrator, Dr. Weiler, great to see you both. Thank you for the outstanding work that you do, and all of your team.
    I wanted to ask you about the COTS program. Over the last three years, NASA has developed the Commercial Orbital Transportation System to provide commercial cargo and crew flights to international space station. In December, NASA awarded contracts to two companies, Orbital Sciences and Space X, for ISS re-supply missions.
    The first flights are expected in late 2010 or early 2011. Before those flights, it's hard to declare the program a success. But at this point, it's hard to see how it could be going any better.
    I want to congratulate NASA for having the foresight to launch the COTS program. I've been out to Space X and I was incredibly impressed with what they're doing.
    And I was there after their second unsuccessful launch, where they were quite confident they diagnosed the correctly. And, sure enough, on the third launch, they showed that they had, and it's very exciting.
    There's another stage of the COTS program -- Capability D -- which involves developing commercial crew delivery. As we approach shuttle retirement, Capability D could offer our only domestic method of delivering astronauts to the ISS.
    This subcommittee has consistently supported that capability, as has the authorizing committee. My understanding is that the crew capability could be demonstrated two years after approval.
    In the stimulus bill, Congress provided an additional $150 million for commercial crew and cargo. So I'm interested to know if NASA has taken any steps toward activating the Capability D option, or if there are any impediments to that.
    And does NASA believe that exercising the option would allow for cheaper ISS crew flights during the 2010 to 2015 window?

SCOLESE:
    The Capability D, we certainly -- in the budget, we did provide $150 million of stimulus funds for looking at the crew and enhancing cargo.
    About 70 million of that funding is to go off and address issues that are broadly related to crew capability, for anybody that would be providing a crew capability.
    It's looking at the -- what we need to do for attaching a vehicle and detaching a vehicle from the station, we need to provide some interfaces for that. So we're looking at that.
    We have activities to work with people and to better define human rating requirements that would be needed to put crew into space. The <Aerospace> Safety Advisory Panel had some concerns about our human rating requirements as currently written, so this is to go off and clarify those and make them clear to anybody that wants to fly a crew.
    And then we have about $80 million.
    (CROSSTALK)

SCHIFF:
    It sounds like bongos in here. Is that the sound system or do you have a musical accompaniment at NASA now?

SCOLESE:
    I don't think I have musical accompaniment, sir.

SCHIFF:
    Is that in the room? I'm sorry. I don't know how to follow that up.

CULBERSON (?):
    This is NASA.
    (LAUGHTER)

SCOLESE:
    And then we have additional resources, the balance of it, to accelerate cargo flights and to go off and solicit initially as a request for information -- information on how commercial crew could be done.
    Fundamentally, the plan that we see going forward is to logically proceed from cargo, which will be difficult in and of itself to achieve, to a crew escape capability to ultimately bringing crew up to the space station.
    So that's basically our plan in overview, and that's what the $150 million in the funding that you saw and in the operating plan yesterday that it will initiate. And that's in addition to, as you pointed out already, the commercial cargo portion of it.


Quote
MOLLOHAN:
    Just clarification of the question that Mr. Schiff asked on the COTS-D. You've got -- your spending plan is $150 million for commercial crew and cargo.
    Our information -- it was $80 million that'd be available for commercial development of crew concepts and technology demonstrations and investigations. And all that sure sounds like COTS-D, and what you described sounded like COTS-D.
    But in the conversations with our staff, your staff assured us, the representative -- that wasn't COTS-D. So how -- could you clarify that?

SCOLESE:
    I think we used -- unfortunately, we used COTS-D as a shorthand for commercial crew. COTS-D really is an option that was out there in the early Space Act Agreement to talk about human space flight. And there's only one organization that bid to that.
    So shorthand, we call it COTS-D but it really is not COTS-D. And if I misspoke, I'm sorry.

MOLLOHAN:
    No, no, you didn't misspeak. It just sounded like COTS-D.
    OK. What's the difference?

SCOLESE:
    The difference is we're not going off doing what we originally described as COTS-D. And when I get done here, maybe Doug can add a little more...


http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/datasets/house-cjs-nasa-hearing-on-april-29-2/versions/1.txt

« Last Edit: 05/09/2009 11:37 pm by yg1968 »

Offline rpspeck

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #15 on: 05/13/2009 05:13 pm »
So $80 Million (COTS D) buys < 1.6 seats with the new Russian "Opportunity Pricing" ($51M each) for the Soyuz.

Perhaps NASA will want to buy more than 2 seats, for flight to the ISS, in 5 ++++  years?

I hope this proves to resemble being “a little bit pregnant”: the new president seems to forced the door open for COTS Human Transport funding, and this will make the next steps easier - assuming Elon comes through with results !

Offline ChuckC

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #16 on: 05/13/2009 05:51 pm »
This is good news indeed. It means that if space X can get its dragon up and flying safely that we could seek a privately owned and operated manned space craft fly before Orion get off the ground.

Since the Dragon is ultimately intended to be manned and designed with manned flight in mind as a result the extra development cost to a manned Dragon are relatively small.

Offline jongoff

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #17 on: 05/13/2009 07:06 pm »
I really hope that they can get enough money to do COTS-D (or its equivalent) in a way that can fund several competitors, and not just SpaceX.  I like SpaceX.  They have a good team.  But even good teams can fail.  Also, the last thing we want is to have only one commercial provider for manned spaceflight.  You really want two or three providers to keep each other honest.

~Jon

Offline Swatch

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #18 on: 05/13/2009 11:17 pm »
You really want two or three providers to keep each other honest.

 ;D

Its amazing how many people DON'T understand this very important part of capitalism!

Bravo Jon!
« Last Edit: 05/13/2009 11:18 pm by Swatch »
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Offline Antares

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Re: COTS D in the On-Deck Circle...
« Reply #19 on: 05/14/2009 12:25 am »
What if there is a minimum cost of supporting any provider and the government can't afford 2x or 3x that number?  Then what?
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

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