Author Topic: STS-119: Landing Weather (Read 24279 times)

psloss · « **on:** 03/26/2009 06:51 pm »

Looks like this could be a short thread; SMG out with Saturday forecasts today:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0

Quote

000
NOUS54 KWNJ 261222
OAVJSC

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
800 AM CDT THURSDAY MARCH 26 2009

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-119

EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 03/28/09
TIME: 1739Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - SATURDAY 03/28/09

SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT050 7 17013P21

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 06006P09

NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SKC 7 27003P05

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE

Sunday doesn't look so hot, but hopefully it doesn't get to that:

Quote

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SUNDAY 03/29/09

SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 7 26013P21
CHC BKN030 CHC TSRA WI 30NM

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT250 7 28015P22

NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SKC 7 22013P26

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... ANVIL/CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
EDW ... XWIND
NOR ... GUST

hygoex · « **Reply #1 on:** 03/27/2009 12:10 am »

With multiple runways at Edwards, why would crosswinds be an issue?

DaveS · « **Reply #2 on:** 03/27/2009 12:18 am »

Quote from: hygoex on 03/27/2009 12:10 am

With multiple runways at Edwards, why would crosswinds be an issue?

They only use one, the main concrete runway(22/04).

rdale · « **Reply #3 on:** 03/27/2009 12:07 pm »

There's a pretty powerful and widespread storm system moving through the southeast the next few days, I might keep a little more cloudiness in the KSC forecast than they do but still not to the point of causing a problem. Sunday is a no-go for FL.

psloss · « **Reply #4 on:** 03/27/2009 12:14 pm »

Latest from SMG:

Quote

000
NOUS54 KWNJ 271240
OAVJSC

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
800 AM CDT FRIDAY MARCH 27 2009

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-119

EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 03/28/09
TIME: 1738Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - SATURDAY 03/28/09

SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT050 SCT200 7 17013P21
SLGT CHC BKN050

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 06006P09

NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SKC 7 34003P05

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SUNDAY 03/29/09

SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 7 26013P21
CHC BKN030 CHC TSRA WI 30NM

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT250 7 26020P30

NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SKC 7 22013P26

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... ANVIL/CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
EDW ... XWIND
NOR ... GUST

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 27/2300Z

KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)

ORAM/WILEY/PROTON/HOOD

psloss · « **Reply #5 on:** 03/27/2009 12:18 pm »

The latest CONUS forecast sheet attached as a screencap; mostly redundant, but includes an early look at Monday...

rdale · « **Reply #6 on:** 03/27/2009 03:41 pm »

Looking at the new data and it might make sense to make sure Edwards is ready on Saturday... KSC could be a little worse than the official forecast on Saturday, and they definitely won't be landing in Florida (or apparently anywhere in the US) on Sunday.

DwightM · « **Reply #7 on:** 03/27/2009 03:50 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 03/27/2009 03:41 pm

Looking at the new data and it might make sense to make sure Edwards is ready on Saturday... KSC could be a little worse than the official forecast on Saturday, and they definitely won't be landing in Florida (or apparently anywhere in the US) on Sunday.

Yesterday they told the crew that EOM and EOM+1 would be KSC only (based on their current forecast). Plenty of time to change their minds, though.

psloss · « **Reply #8 on:** 03/27/2009 03:51 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 03/27/2009 03:41 pm

Looking at the new data and it might make sense to make sure Edwards is ready on Saturday... KSC could be a little worse than the official forecast on Saturday, and they definitely won't be landing in Florida (or apparently anywhere in the US) on Sunday.

Based on the call that even on Sunday, it would be KSC only, I'm assuming they can stay up beyond Sunday. Hopefully we'll get the official landing strategy outlook from Richard Jones later this afternoon.

DwightM · « **Reply #9 on:** 03/27/2009 04:51 pm »

Quote from: psloss on 03/27/2009 03:51 pm

Quote from: rdale on 03/27/2009 03:41 pm
Looking at the new data and it might make sense to make sure Edwards is ready on Saturday... KSC could be a little worse than the official forecast on Saturday, and they definitely won't be landing in Florida (or apparently anywhere in the US) on Sunday.
Based on the call that even on Sunday, it would be KSC only, I'm assuming they can stay up beyond Sunday. Hopefully we'll get the official landing strategy outlook from Richard Jones later this afternoon.

I believe one of the reasons for the late hatch closure was to preserve the cold samples for a possible EOM+3 (Tuesday).

Edit: Per the presser the samples are good through EOM+2. There would be some degridation at EOM+3.

rdale · « **Reply #10 on:** 03/27/2009 07:14 pm »

Per the presser the EOM+3 is still good to go, so no reason to activate the other sites this weekend. Odds are that if first opportunity at KSC is no-go, then nothing gets better until Monday.

psloss · « **Reply #11 on:** 03/27/2009 07:16 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 03/27/2009 07:14 pm

Per the presser the EOM+3 is still good to go, so no reason to activate the other sites this weekend. Odds are that if first opportunity at KSC is no-go, then nothing gets better until Monday.

Yeah, Monday is the "pick-em" day as Richard Jones said; Tuesday would be for systems/contingencies...

rdale · « **Reply #12 on:** 03/28/2009 09:54 am »

There's a major severe weather event that's been sliding along the Gulf Coast overnight, that's expected to concentrate the thick clouds and showers to the north of KSC today.

However due in part to the strength of this storm, winds will ramp up pretty quickly into the afternoon. That's really the only concern I have, but that's pretty tough to forecast until the we get closer to noontime today. The NWS forecast at landing time says winds out of the south sustained at 19mph with gusts to 27mph, which thanks to the runway orientation would be close to (if not over) the crosswind limits. Patrick AFB has a similar outlook.

I'm not sure if SMG will update their presentation today, but here is Friday's: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/rtimages/smg/Landing_Wx.ppt

clongton · « **Reply #13 on:** 03/28/2009 10:19 am »

Quote from: psloss on 03/27/2009 03:51 pm

Quote from: rdale on 03/27/2009 03:41 pm
Looking at the new data and it might make sense to make sure Edwards is ready on Saturday... KSC could be a little worse than the official forecast on Saturday, and they definitely won't be landing in Florida (or apparently anywhere in the US) on Sunday.
Based on the call that even on Sunday, it would be KSC only, I'm assuming they can stay up beyond Sunday. Hopefully we'll get the official landing strategy outlook from Richard Jones later this afternoon.

Due to early station departure to accommodate Soyuz, Discovery has sufficient consumables to allow an on-orbit stay thru Thursday. Not sure about the down mass condition however.

Hopefully the weather system to the north stays far enough away that Fla remains viable for today. I plan to be at KSC for the landing and would hate to leave without Discovery being home.

psloss · « **Reply #14 on:** 03/28/2009 01:15 pm »

Quote from: clongton on 03/28/2009 10:19 am

Due to early station departure to accommodate Soyuz, Discovery has sufficient consumables to allow an on-orbit stay thru Thursday. Not sure about the down mass condition however.

Not a biggie, but thought I heard it was Tuesday, based on LiOH.

psloss · « **Reply #15 on:** 03/28/2009 01:16 pm »

Forecast from earlier in the morning from SMG:

Quote

000
NOUS54 KWNJ 281129
OAVJSC

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
630 AM CDT SATURDAY MARCH 28 2009

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-119

EXPECTED LANDING DATE: 03/28/09
TIME: 1738Z
SITE: KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM - SATURDAY 03/28/09

SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
FIRST OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT040 BKN200 7 17015P23
SLGT CHC BKN040

SECOND OPPORTUNITY
KSC SCT050 SCT100 BKN200 7 15016P25
SLGT CHC BKN050

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SKC 7 06006P09

NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR SKC 7 33005P08

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... CIG
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE

U.S. LANDING SITES - EOM+1 - SUNDAY 03/29/09

SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC SCT030 BKN080 7 26013P21
CHC BKN030 CHC TSRA WI 30NM

EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE CA
EDW SCT250 7 26020P30

NORTHRUP STRIP...WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR NM
NOR BKN250 7 22013P26

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... ANVIL/CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
EDW ... XWIND
NOR ... GUST

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED

KSC...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
ICAO ID IS KTTS
EDW...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
ICAO ID IS KEDW
NOR...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)

ORAM/WILEY/PROTON/HOOD

Ronsmytheiii · « **Reply #16 on:** 03/28/2009 01:36 pm »

rdale · « **Reply #17 on:** 03/28/2009 01:44 pm »

Winds at the landing site are currently from the south at 20mph with gusts recorded to 33mph, new forecast from PAFB expects even higher gusts after noon.

johng · « **Reply #18 on:** 03/28/2009 01:44 pm »

A) What's CIG?

B) What's the gust limit? Online weather reports show gusts over 30 mph now.

psloss · « **Reply #19 on:** 03/28/2009 01:47 pm »

Quote from: johng on 03/28/2009 01:44 pm

A) What's CIG?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/fcstint.htm

Quote

Following the forecast section, flight rule violations are
highlighted on a station by station basis.
Violations Include: CIG = Ceiling
SHRA = Rain Showers
TSRA = Thunderstorms
XWIND = Crosswinds

On the gust limits, Rob knows that well, but there's also a general weather guideline here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/wxcrit.htm

Quote

2. Peak winds may not exceed the average wind speed by more than 10 knots.