Author Topic: STS-119 Launch Weather (Read 9940 times)

rdale · « **on:** 03/07/2009 12:02 pm »

This is one of those rare cases where we really don't need a weather thread, but as we've already seen the posts in the main thread get bumped down pretty quick so people can miss them. Here we go...

Launch Weather Links: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070606-012.pdf

Spaceflight Meteorology Group: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC

National Weather Service: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Titusville&state=FL&site=MLB&textField1=28.5888&textField2=-80.8202&e=0

NWS Forecast Discsussion: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB

In the big picture, high pressure off the Atlantic is keeping the weather quiet, warm, and dry for KSC. The high will get even closer to FL over the weekend, ensuring that nothing changes. It looks like maybe towards the end of next week there will be a change in the overall pattern, but that should happen after the 11th and it really doesn't look like a big shift in weather conditions for now.

So we'll go with 10% chance of weather prohibiting launch.

rdale · « **Reply #1 on:** 03/09/2009 11:31 am »

I can't ever recall such a "no concern for weather" launch forecast in a LONG time... TAL sites and AOA with absolutely nothing happening other than some high clouds at the worst.

NOUS54 KWNJ 091058
OAVJSC

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX 77058
600 AM CDT MONDAY MARCH 09 2009

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-119

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 0120Z
DATE: 03/12/09

RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
KSC FEW030 7 13007P11

TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
ZZA SKC 7 28006P08

MORON...SPAIN
MRN SKC 7 08004P06

ISTRES...FRANCE
FMI SCT250 7 35013P19

ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
KSC FEW030 7 13007P11

PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 03/12/09 06Z TO 03/12/09 07Z
EDW BKN180 7 22004P07

FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
KSC ... NONE
EDW ... NONE
NOR ... NONE
ZZA ... NONE
MRN ... NONE
FMI ... NONE

rdale · « **Reply #2 on:** 03/11/2009 02:59 pm »

How does 0% chance of weather violations sound? Beautiful evening in store, all TAL sites looking good and forecast good.

Lee Jay · « **Reply #3 on:** 03/11/2009 03:01 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 03/11/2009 02:59 pm

How does 0% chance of weather violations sound?

Let's hope the technical side remains as good as the weather prediction.

cb6785 · « **Reply #4 on:** 03/11/2009 03:07 pm »

Looks reaaaaally great weatherwise

rdale · « **Reply #5 on:** 03/11/2009 09:37 pm »

Little more chance of a shower threat towards Sunday/Monday, but by Florida standards those dates still look very good weatherwise.

psloss · « **Reply #6 on:** 03/11/2009 09:40 pm »

Quote from: rdale on 03/11/2009 09:37 pm

Little more chance of a shower threat towards Sunday/Monday, but by Florida standards those dates still look very good weatherwise.

Think I'd rather have you busy here than seeing hardware issues, Rob.

Seems like in recent memory it's one or the other...

AstroRJY · « **Reply #7 on:** 03/12/2009 03:00 am »

Has anyone noticed the launch times for Sunday and Monday? Sunday- 7:43 p.m., only about a dozen minutes after sunset. Monday- 7:21 p.m. just a handful of minutes BEFORE sunset, which is about 7:30 p.m. there right now. Would make for very interesting lighting conditions at launch if the weather is favorable. STS-117 launched late in the evening in 2007 but it was a good 40 minutes before sunset, not this close.

punkboi · « **Reply #8 on:** 03/12/2009 03:18 am »

Quote from: rdale on 03/11/2009 09:37 pm

Little more chance of a shower threat towards Sunday/Monday, but by Florida standards those dates still look very good weatherwise.

*Circles 'April 7' on my calendar for the eventual launch of STS-119*

Thanks for the heads-up about March 15 and 16, rdale

Andrewwski · « **Reply #9 on:** 03/12/2009 07:30 pm »

April 8 or 9 would be better.

Ford Mustang · « **Reply #10 on:** 03/12/2009 07:37 pm »

Quote from: AstroRJY on 03/12/2009 03:00 am

Has anyone noticed the launch times for Sunday and Monday? Sunday- 7:43 p.m., only about a dozen minutes after sunset. Monday- 7:21 p.m. just a handful of minutes BEFORE sunset, which is about 7:30 p.m. there right now. Would make for very interesting lighting conditions at launch if the weather is favorable. STS-117 launched late in the evening in 2007 but it was a good 40 minutes before sunset, not this close.

Was watching NASA TV last night, and the sky was dark blue with a bit of orange over the horizon at the expected launch time, so it will be one beautiful launch for sure.

rdale · « **Reply #11 on:** 03/12/2009 08:59 pm »

Sunday launch has a pretty good forecast overall, slight worry about low clouds for a RTLS, but no precip - and good TAL sites.

rllacey · « **Reply #12 on:** 03/13/2009 02:31 pm »

rdale: Have you ever thought about posting your weather updates to twitter? I'd love to receive your reports as SMS messages while I'm down at the cape.

AstroRJY · « **Reply #13 on:** 03/14/2009 01:44 am »

Quote from: Ford Mustang on 03/12/2009 07:37 pm

Quote from: AstroRJY on 03/12/2009 03:00 am
Has anyone noticed the launch times for Sunday and Monday? Sunday- 7:43 p.m., only about a dozen minutes after sunset. Monday- 7:21 p.m. just a handful of minutes BEFORE sunset, which is about 7:30 p.m. there right now. Would make for very interesting lighting conditions at launch if the weather is favorable. STS-117 launched late in the evening in 2007 but it was a good 40 minutes before sunset, not this close.

Looks like the sun will be dropping below the horizon just as they pick up the count at T-minus 9. Should be very interesting lightshow if the conditions are right, wonder if it will light up the contrail in rosy colors as it gets higher; a la STS-92 in 2000.

Was watching NASA TV last night, and the sky was dark blue with a bit of orange over the horizon at the expected launch time, so it will be one beautiful launch for sure.

bkellysky · « **Reply #14 on:** 03/15/2009 11:52 am »

This could be a great sight for those of us downrange, if the clouds part. I remember a launch during east coast twilight when the shuttle was easy to see from reflected sunlight, as well as the main engines.

Forecasts for along the eastern seaboard of the US tonight are for cloudy skies, with some partly cloudy north of New Jersey.

bkellysky · « **Reply #15 on:** 03/15/2009 11:56 am »

The Canadian Clear Sky Chart clears New York City out by 5pm, but the National Weather Service has us at 50 percent cloud cover, with 60% to our south and 20% or less to our north and east.
See attached grabs from the National Weather Service Graphical Forecast.

bob kelly

Orbiter · « **Reply #16 on:** 03/15/2009 12:00 pm »

Quote from: AstroRJY on 03/12/2009 03:00 am

Has anyone noticed the launch times for Sunday and Monday? Sunday- 7:43 p.m., only about a dozen minutes after sunset. Monday- 7:21 p.m. just a handful of minutes BEFORE sunset, which is about 7:30 p.m. there right now. Would make for very interesting lighting conditions at launch if the weather is favorable. STS-117 launched late in the evening in 2007 but it was a good 40 minutes before sunset, not this close.

STS-117 Launched at 7:38 PM EDT, STS-119 will launch at 7:32 PM EDT, but will be darker than STS-117.

rdale · « **Reply #17 on:** 03/15/2009 03:48 pm »

A beautiful launch weather outlook... Light breeze, temps already at 80, and a few clouds. Only the smallest threat of more clouds than they want, but I'd guess unless the cloud deck REALLY violates any criteria -- we're good to go!

rdale · « **Reply #18 on:** 03/15/2009 06:49 pm »

Both TAL Spain sites are absolutely flawless, little windy at Istres - and nothing should be changing through launch time.

TTS reporting a few clouds at 4,500ft and a few at 30,000ft. That shouldn't be too much different this evening either, winds a bit gusty at times but nothing out of limits (and that should subside towards sunset.)

rdale · « **Reply #19 on:** 03/15/2009 07:39 pm »

Latest ob from TTS still gusting to 18kts, but it is very infrequent and still 1kt below the limit. I don't expect it to be a constraint.