What's Happening at Bigelow?

[ChefPat]

Not necessarily, because it also requires much more propellant, even if the capsule's heat shield had to be replaced everytime, which is not a given. It would be more comfortable and safer to travel back and forth in a BA-330, but not more cost efficient I think.

The Aft Propulsion Bus is refuelable with water. If used as a Cycler between EML-1 & LEO it wouldn't even take much of that. The Capsule could come along for the ride.

[docmordrid]

Bigelow has also talked about using large scale prop buses - much larger than the standard ones for his stations

[Cherokee43v6]

Don't worry about transportation of crew to the station, if money is available, Soyuz is available.

I would disagree with this statement. 

Soyuz is available ONLY if Bigelow wants the extra expense of constant reboosts to maintain orbit.  The ISS is at the orbit it is (instead of higher where it wouldn't have to reboost nearly as often) because the Soyuz runs out of usable capacity above that altitude.

Also, would the Russians have the resources to ramp up production of the Soyuz sufficiently to support two stations?

[joek]

Don't worry about transportation of crew to the station, if money is available, Soyuz is available.

I really don't see how Soyuz would work for Bigelow.  The ledger has a couple positives but a large number of negatives...

Russia will undoubtedly require a Russian pilot for Soyuz, and that pilot would need to stay on station until return.  The two passengers will also require many months of training in Russia (IIRC 6-18mo? including having to learn Russian).  That is likely to put a damper on paying passengers and station occupancy rates.

Mr. B has said the BA-330 nominal crew size is 6, that they want to rotate the crew every 90 days, and thus they'll need at least 4 crew flights per year per module, or 24 seats per module per year.  (And the obvious implication is that he's assuming a vehicle capacity of 6 people/flight.)  While he's never revealed what the minimum occupancy rate or revenue is for break-even, a reasonable assumption is that his initial operating margins aren't huge and that he needs to maximize paying station occupants.

To achieve full station occupancy using Soyuz would mean at least 2x the number of flights (8/yr) vs. CST-100 or Dragon Crew (4/yr).  Given that 1/3 of the station occupants are Russian pilots; that Russia is extremely unlikely to pay (or barter) for slots on a Bigelow station; and that Bigelow would likely have to pay for those Russian pilot's time and their on station support (e.g., consumables) for the duration.  Much higher costs for a 1/3 reduction in revenue?  That doesn't sound like a recipe for success.

To achieve full paying station occupancy they could put 2 empty Soyuz lifeboats up there to eliminate the need for the pilots to stay on station (assuming a non-Russian pilot is allowed in an emergency).  But that would require an additional 1/3 more flights for a total of 12/yr (2 paying station occupants per Soyuz) for full station occupancy.  It would also incur significant inventory costs (2 Soyuz sitting up there idle at any given time) and occupy 2 docking ports (not sure if number of ports may be an issue).

Soyuz doesn't appear to make sense for Bigelow unless the per seat passenger cost comes *way* down and Russia can support significantly increased Soyuz flight rates.  Even as one-shot to get some people on a Bigelow station sooner rather than later, Soyuz makes little or no sense.  Bigelow isn't likely to launch anything until he has sufficient paying customers.  And he isn't likely to sign many customers without a sustainable (reliable and affordable) transportation system.

Then there's cargo.  I can't find any mention of cargo requirements by Bigelow.  Assuming 6 people/flight, none of the CCDev vehicles are likely to have much cargo capacity, so there must be some need for separate cargo flights.  With three passengers, how much cargo can Soyuz carry?

[manboy]

It would also incur significant inventory costs (2 Soyuz sitting up there idle at any given time) and occupy 2 docking ports (not sure if number of ports may be an issue).

Not to mention Soyuz would require a unique docking port.

[Jason1701]

With three passengers, how much cargo can Soyuz carry?

Tens of kilos. Even less to Bigelow's low inclination and (AFAIK) relatively high altitude.

To the list of negatives, I'd add a tremendous ITAR headache for a US company (Bigelow) to work with, integrate, and launch Russian docking hardware.

[kkattula]

Note:  Soyuz has been taking tourists to the ISS for quite a while now, but has apparently never factored into Bigelow's plans. Probably for the above reasons.

They've always said they needed an American commercial people transporter.  Preferably two of them.

[manboy]

Note:  Soyuz has been taking tourists to the ISS for quite a while now, but has apparently never factored into Bigelow's plans. Probably for the above reasons.

They've always said they needed an American commercial people transporter.  Preferably two of them.

Not true.

"Two years ago I felt comfortable because of conversations that we had with the Russians that we could buy all the Soyuz [spacecraft] we want. In the last two years things have changed dramatically," Bigelow said. NASA's desperate need for the Soyuz following the Columbia accident, Bigelow said, has led to the United States government to pay what no private sector company can afford to pay.

NASA, he noted, has no choice "They've got to have the Soyuz and it's going to get worse once the space shuttle stops flying," Bigelow said. The last thing a private company can do, Bigelow said, is go compete head-to-head with NASA to buy Soyuz spacecraft. "We can't afford that so we have to find something indigenous. And of course the Chinese eventually will have their Shenzhou [piloted spacecraft] being offered to the private sector. But that's not going to be for a while."

http://www.space.com/517-exclusive-rules-set-50-million-america-space-prize.html

[ChefPat]

If a BA-330 weighs in at 23 metric tons & a FH can put 53 metric tons into LEO, how much water would fit into a BA-330 in stowed configuration & hauled up to orbit in the intitial launch?
How much would a 2.5" water blanket on the inside of a BA-330 weigh?

[douglas100]

Another problem about using Soyuz with Bigelow is orbital inclination. I believe Bigelow has talked about using a 40 degree inclination orbit. If that's the case then Soyuz cannot reach the Bigelow station from Baikonur. It would have to launch from Kourou causing extra complexity and cost.

[Lars_J]

If a BA-330 weighs in at 23 metric tons & a FH can put 53 metric tons into LEO, how much water would fit into a BA-330 in stowed configuration & hauled up to orbit in the intitial launch?
How much would a 2.5" water blanket on the inside of a BA-330 weigh?

The volume and mass of water is easy to calculate. 1 cubic meter weighs roughly 1 metric ton if I remember my schools stuff right.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

If a BA-330 weighs in at 23 metric tons & a FH can put 53 metric tons into LEO, how much water would fit into a BA-330 in stowed configuration & hauled up to orbit in the intitial launch?
How much would a 2.5" water blanket on the inside of a BA-330 weigh?

The volume and mass of water is easy to calculate. 1 cubic meter weighs roughly 1 metric ton if I remember my schools stuff right.

Or about 13-14MT of water.

(6.7m dia *PI *10m length *2.5in*2.54cm/in /100cm/m -> 13.4m3 * 100*100*100m3/cm3*1g/cm3*1kg/1000g*1MT/1000kg)

[ChefPat]

Another problem about using Soyuz with Bigelow is orbital inclination. I believe Bigelow has talked about using a 40 degree inclination orbit. If that's the case then Soyuz cannot reach the Bigelow station from Baikonur. It would have to launch from Kourou causing extra complexity and cost.

While I can't find it now, I distinctly remember Bigelow stating that the operational altitude for Alpha would be 350 miles.
I did find a Wiki reference to the Sundancer altitude as 288 miles.
Can Soyuz get to those altitudes?

[ChefPat]

If a BA-330 weighs in at 23 metric tons & a FH can put 53 metric tons into LEO, how much water would fit into a BA-330 in stowed configuration & hauled up to orbit in the intitial launch?
How much would a 2.5" water blanket on the inside of a BA-330 weigh?

The volume and mass of water is easy to calculate. 1 cubic meter weighs roughly 1 metric ton if I remember my schools stuff right.

Or about 13-14MT of water.

(6.7m dia *PI *10m length *2.5in*2.54cm/in /100cm/m -> 13.4m3 * 100*100*100m3/cm3*1g/cm3*1kg/1000g*1MT/1000kg)

The potential is there then to haul quite a bit more than is needed for shielding. This could be used in the refuelable Forward Propulsion.

[Jason1701]

Pat, I thought the 330 was 20 tons. Do you have a source for the 23? The website doesn't say.

[ChefPat]

Pat, I thought the 330 was 20 tons. Do you have a source for the 23? The website doesn't say.

Wiki, BA-330 Page
Mass Between 20,000 kg and 23,000 kg

[douglas100]

While I can't find it now, I distinctly remember Bigelow stating that the operational altitude for Alpha would be 350 miles.
I did find a Wiki reference to the Sundancer altitude as 288 miles.
Can Soyuz get to those altitudes?

Don't know. It might be pushing the propellant margins to operate  at these altitudes. Launching from Kourou would enable a Soyuz to carry more propellant than from Baikonur, but whether the tanks would have to be enlarged for this I don't know either. Bottom line is that it looks unlikely at the moment that Soyuz will be flying to a Bigelow station.

But of course, if Bigelow puts his modules into a an orbit at about the same altitude and inclination as the ISS then all that could change...

[Jason1701]

While I can't find it now, I distinctly remember Bigelow stating that the operational altitude for Alpha would be 350 miles.
I did find a Wiki reference to the Sundancer altitude as 288 miles.
Can Soyuz get to those altitudes?

Don't know. It might be pushing the propellant margins to operate  at these altitudes. Launching from Kourou would enable a Soyuz to carry more propellant than from Baikonur, but whether the tanks would have to be enlarged for this I don't know either. Bottom line is that it looks unlikely at the moment that Soyuz will be flying to a Bigelow station.

But of course, if Bigelow puts his modules into a an orbit at about the same altitude and inclination as the ISS then all that could change...

Kourou does not have Soyuz spacecraft facilities, nor do I know of any plans to add them. If they did, we'd probably see a repeat of the huge delays the Soyuz rocket is experiencing from there.

[douglas100]

While I can't find it now, I distinctly remember Bigelow stating that the
Kourou does not have Soyuz spacecraft facilities, nor do I know of any plans to add them. If they did, we'd probably see a repeat of the huge delays the Soyuz rocket is experiencing from there.

That's true. I was writing hypothetically.

[ChefPat]

I'm curious if a Laguna Madre, Texas site would give Bigelow any advantages?