What's Happening at Bigelow?

[Danderman]

The Sundancer concept took Galaxy's place as Bigelow decided to press with a human habitable design.  Sundancer is/was to have functioning ECLSS systems, and be habitable.
Once systems were proven in Sundancer, they would be upscaled to BA330 for commercial sale.

So, Sundancer is the Next Step. When is it supposed to fly?

The reason that I ask is that Bigelow is prone to big plans, but the actual reality tends to be mockups, subscale models, and buildings.

[pathfinder_01]

The Sundancer concept took Galaxy's place as Bigelow decided to press with a human habitable design.  Sundancer is/was to have functioning ECLSS systems, and be habitable.
Once systems were proven in Sundancer, they would be upscaled to BA330 for commercial sale.

So, Sundancer is the Next Step. When is it supposed to fly?

The reason that I ask is that Bigelow is prone to big plans, but the actual reality tends to be mockups, subscale models, and buildings.

2014 ATM

[Namechange User]

The Sundancer concept took Galaxy's place as Bigelow decided to press with a human habitable design.  Sundancer is/was to have functioning ECLSS systems, and be habitable.
Once systems were proven in Sundancer, they would be upscaled to BA330 for commercial sale.

So, Sundancer is the Next Step. When is it supposed to fly?

The reason that I ask is that Bigelow is prone to big plans, but the actual reality tends to be mockups, subscale models, and buildings.

Doesn't do much good to have real hardware on orbit if you can't get to it.  That's why Bigelow hinges on ISS success and why we are heading into perilous times.

[pathfinder_01]

Doesn't do much good to have real hardware on orbit if you can't get to it.  That's why Bigelow hinges on ISS success and why we are heading into perilous times.

He is hinged on commercail crew success. The ISS may be it's first destination but frankly until fy2010 NASA wasn't very helpful in terms of commercail crew(commercail cargo yes).

[Diagoras]

Dear God, that is awesome. I...words fail me.

That's just awesome.

It'll be awesome when and if it happens.

Oh? Do you know something I don't?

He knows Bigelow was talking about the future, and predictions are difficult, especially about the future. So the things Bigelow spoke of are not guaranteed to happen.

What part of that did you not know?

None. Glad to know I'm in the loop.

In other news, ice cream is delicious.

Yeah, I've got powerpoint fatigue, so I'm no longer impressed by any fanciful powerpoint depictions of ambitious spacecraft. Can't take much more. I want to see all these spacecraft which we've been hearing about so much flying and doing their jobs. Just got to wait, I guess. Soon, Dawn will arrive at Vesta, Dragon and Cygnus will be at ISS, MSL and Juno will launch towards Mars and Jupiter, Orion will launch (unmanned, at first), James Webb will launch, commercial crew will launch, Bigelow will launch (maybe).

That said, there are lots of missions which have been going on for years and that are still interesting, like Cassini, MER Opportunity, MRO, and ISS.

Ah, fair enough. I thought you might have spotted some news of delays or something that I hadn't. Bigelow has two pathfinder modules in orbit, are buying up factory space and beginning fabrication, and appears to have closed the business case to their satisfaction, so I'm fairly confident of their success. Still, it's good to live in the present rather than eternally yearn for a distant future.

[Namechange User]

Doesn't do much good to have real hardware on orbit if you can't get to it.  That's why Bigelow hinges on ISS success and why we are heading into perilous times.

He is hinged on commercail crew success. The ISS may be it's first destination but frankly until fy2010 NASA wasn't very helpful in terms of commercail crew(commercail cargo yes).

And commercial crew success is hinged directly to ISS success.  Don't attempt to confuse the facts because it suits your motives.  In fact, at this point it is all very much integrated. 

To look at it any other way, as some like to do, is a classic problem in order to place responsibility at someone else's feet.  An example of this is what you did above, your statment about NASA not being very "helpful", for no reason other than to say, it exactly what I'm talking about. 

[Danderman]

Doesn't do much good to have real hardware on orbit if you can't get to it.  That's why Bigelow hinges on ISS success and why we are heading into perilous times.

He is hinged on commercail crew success. The ISS may be it's first destination but frankly until fy2010 NASA wasn't very helpful in terms of commercail crew(commercail cargo yes).

And commercial crew success is hinged directly to ISS success.  Don't attempt to confuse the facts because it suits your motives.  In fact, at this point it is all very much integrated. 

To look at it any other way, as some like to do, is a classic problem in order to place responsibility at someone else's feet.  An example of this is what you did above, your statment about NASA not being very "helpful", for no reason other than to say, it exactly what I'm talking about. 

Forgetting for a moment the stuff about placing responsibility somewhere, it looks like Bigelow's effort is completely dependent on the commercial crew initiative resulting in availability of affordable and safe crew transport. This is what Bigelow has been saying for about ten years, so he is consistent.

The problem is that Bigelow's pronouncements imply that such crew transport will be available Real Soon Now. Or, to look at it another way, if Bigelow has been dependent on crew transport, what was the point of his announced plans of 2005 or so, when no crew transport was on the horizon? It kind of reminds me of plans to explore the moon for Helium-3, when nuclear fusion is still 15 years away.

[Space Junkie]

Ah, fair enough. I thought you might have spotted some news of delays or something that I hadn't. Bigelow has two pathfinder modules in orbit, are buying up factory space and beginning fabrication, and appears to have closed the business case to their satisfaction, so I'm fairly confident of their success. Still, it's good to live in the present rather than eternally yearn for a distant future.

Yes. Typical powerpoint rockets or spacecraft are entirely dependent on massive funding from someone else. Robert Bigelow has put hundreds of millions of his own dollars into this project.

Also, he's in his mid sixties and not getting any younger. I would never accuse Musk or Bezos or Carmack of slacking (far from it), but Bigelow can't afford to be quite as patient as they can.

Granted, the project is dependent on commercial crew and the BA2100 requires a super heavy. Still, I don't think this should be put in the same powerpoint category as say Skylon.

[manboy]

Here's the presentation that went with that slideshow.

Robert Bigelow’s Keynote Address at the 2011 ISDC Governors’ Gala
http://moonandback.com/2011/06/02/robert-bigelows-keynote-address-at-the-2011-isdc-governors-gala/

[Danderman]

Granted, the project is dependent on commercial crew and the BA2100 requires a super heavy. Still, I don't think this should be put in the same powerpoint category as say Skylon.

Correct. Anyone who puts something into orbit gets points.

On the other hand, I can't see the business case for Bigelow closing, but he has made a lot more $$ than I have, so one must be open minded about these things.

[clongton]

ESA will be continually planning to fly human crew, Russia is having a hard enough time building enough Soyuz for the ISS and it will be some time before Orion flys. I doubt the Chinese will even want to go to a Bigelow station. That leaves Commercial crew; CST-1000, Dragon and Dreamchaser. All three will likely go there. And, lest we forget, the Indians are formulating their own plans for crewed spacecraft. Unlike the ESA (and NASA/Russia), they have a history of following thru on their plans and not studying them for decades. So I think an Indian spacecraft will visit as well, probably before Orion. They may even lease a BA-330 for their own. Don't look for Orion to go to a Bigelow station any time soon. SLS will be having shakedown launches for the rest of the decade to LEO/ISS and the only existing LV that can lift it to LEO is the D-IV Heavy, which cannot be human rated at this time. Atlas-V Heavy can handle Orion but it has never flown.

[ChefPat]

Link


New construction update. That's going to be one BIG factory. I can't wait to see the first Sundancer or BA-330 pop out the end of it.

[simonbp]

At least they're thinking ahead more than SpaceX; the first F9 first stage required some "building modifications" to get out of the old El Segundo factory...

[kevin-rf]

At least they're thinking ahead more than SpaceX; the first F9 first stage required some "building modifications" to get out of the old El Segundo factory...

You act like that is bad thing. When I was in college, I did a few coops at kodak, it was quite common for them to remove walls for new equipment. Of course there was the indecent where they took out the wrong second floor wall flattening a pickup truck in the process...

[beancounter]

Granted, the project is dependent on commercial crew and the BA2100 requires a super heavy. Still, I don't think this should be put in the same powerpoint category as say Skylon.

Correct. Anyone who puts something into orbit gets points.

On the other hand, I can't see the business case for Bigelow closing, but he has made a lot more $$ than I have, so one must be open minded about these things.

I recall Bigelow saying in an interview, something like ' sometimes you've got to have a little faith that things will work out'.  He didn't say his business case had closed, just that it was close enough for the 'faith' bit to be sufficient for him to continue to build and expand his company.
Guess that was also how he decided intially that he could spend half a billion dollars of his own money on this venture.  That's the key, it's his money, it's his call.

[ChefPat]

Cosmic Landlord

This article has a bunch of inaccuracies in the beginning, but overall is a good article concerning the business case for Bigelow.

[Blackjax]

I just got done listening to this and following along with the slides.

http://hobbyspace.com/nucleus/?itemid=30055

They explicitly talk about propulsion of human modules.  Some of the pictures look suspiciously 'Bigelow Inflatable'.  Given that Bigelow is already working with Boeing on their CCDev entry, I have to wonder if there is also discussion of using their tech in a Bigelow Spaceship (as opposed to a Station).   It'd be pretty cool if he offered something like this:

http://cbboff.org/UCBoulderCourse/documents/LunarCyclerPaper.pdf

in addition to a LEO station.

[go4mars]

Here's the presentation that went with that slideshow.

Robert Bigelow’s Keynote Address at the 2011 ISDC Governors’ Gala
http://moonandback.com/2011/06/02/robert-bigelows-keynote-address-at-the-2011-isdc-governors-gala/

Anyone know if it is on youtube? Thank.

When I click it I get this message: 

"The dreaded 404 error page!
I am sorry, but somehow, inspite of our best efforts, you managed to find a dead link.

Or perhaps you typed in a URL incorrectly.

Try searching for something, or going to the front page of the site"

[docmordrid]

This one?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?nomobile=1&v=fb0z_zRHHBE

[sprocket]

Dear God, that is awesome. I...words fail me.

That's just awesome.

It'll be awesome when and if it happens.

Oh? Do you know something I don't?

He knows Bigelow was talking about the future, and predictions are difficult, especially about the future. So the things Bigelow spoke of are not guaranteed to happen.

What part of that did you not know?

None. Glad to know I'm in the loop.

In other news, ice cream is delicious.

Yeah, I've got powerpoint fatigue, so I'm no longer impressed by any fanciful powerpoint depictions of ambitious spacecraft. Can't take much more. I want to see all these spacecraft which we've been hearing about so much flying and doing their jobs. Just got to wait, I guess. Soon, Dawn will arrive at Vesta, Dragon and Cygnus will be at ISS, MSL and Juno will launch towards Mars and Jupiter, Orion will launch (unmanned, at first), James Webb will launch, commercial crew will launch, Bigelow will launch (maybe).

That said, there are lots of missions which have been going on for years and that are still interesting, like Cassini, MER Opportunity, MRO, and ISS.

Ah, fair enough. I thought you might have spotted some news of delays or something that I hadn't. Bigelow has two pathfinder modules in orbit, are buying up factory space and beginning fabrication, and appears to have closed the business case to their satisfaction, so I'm fairly confident of their success. Still, it's good to live in the present rather than eternally yearn for a distant future.