Space Tourism Wannabes

[Danderman]

During the 1990's, there was an explosion of commercial space start-ups, initiated by the telecoms-in-space boomlet, Most of these companies were wiped out by the 2000 dot com crash There were several that promised commercial space tourism Real Soon, and some even sold "tickets". Among these were Advent/Mayflower, Zegrahm Space and others that I can't remember. What was notable was that the claims got more fantastic right after the dot com crash.

Now, we have a bunch of new companies claiming that they will launch people into space Real Soon Now. Virgin Galactic heads the list, principally due to their current and past activity, they seem to be on schedule for either commercial operations or bust.

The other companies, not so much.

Today, Steven Bennett is claiming that he will be launching tourists in 2013, and there are a bunch of other wannabes making similar claims. Do you think that these companies are really just a few years away from sending passengers into space?

 

[Spiff]

I usually look at the proposed startup schedules, multiply the 'time before first flight' by at least two, and then I'm quite happy to find if they manage to hold 'my' schedule.

So far only spacex and virgin galactic come close. Which I consider progress over previous efforts.


Sorry for my irony.

[jongoff]

Danderman,
I hadn't heard the news about Bennett.  Do you have a link? [Edit: Sorry, that's the Starchaser guy, right?  I had heard about that somewhere]

As to who will actually make it?  I think at least Virgin and XCOR have a reasonable shot.  Virgin actually has enough money that they should at least have a chance at technical success/failure.  Most of the 90s startups never even got that far.  XCOR doesn't have as much money, but I respect what they've done so far, and think they have a pretty good shot.

As for the others?  Who knows.

~Jon

[Danderman]

Some people may consider that the term "wannabe" is a bit perjorative, but I simply mean it in the sense that these companies are start-ups without a lot of capital. There is some possibility that one of the wannabes may actually get to revenue and therefore surprise the world.

[Danderman]

Danderman,
I hadn't heard the news about Bennett.  Do you have a link? [Edit: Sorry, that's the Starchaser guy, right?  I had heard about that somewhere]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/2229605/Steve-Bennett-to-run-space-flights-by-2013.html

[bad_astra]

Past the well funded Virgin and Blue Origin, I think XCOR has a fair shot. Armadillo maybe, if they chose to go that route, but I think they'll find more profitable business.  ARCA, if they'd stay focused on Stabilo and not the Google Lundoggle.

[MichaelF]

It's really a matter of two questions:

1.)  Can such a business model turn a profit?

and

2.)  How deep is the revenue pool (i.e. how many such businesses can the demand/cost ratio support)?

[Smoothie]

I think Sub-Orbital Space tourism (Spaceflight to nowhere I have heard it called) will only end up being a very small part of the market.  I have read about the idea of "Point-to-Point" space travel.  There is (was?) the V-prize for instance.  If you can send someone from Virginia to Paris or Dubai or New Deli or Sydney Australia or Tokyo in an hour then you may eventually have a much bigger market.  This may be the eventual direction Virgin wants to go.  I know Planet Space has talked about it and I think Benson Aerospace did too.  It might also be a good (Better?) market for cargo.

Of course the ultimate will be the capability to take people to orbit.  At least that how I feel anyway.  Once you get to orbit you're half way to anywhere.

[mr.columbus]

I think Sub-Orbital Space tourism (Spaceflight to nowhere I have heard it called) will only end up being a very small part of the market.  I have read about the idea of "Point-to-Point" space travel.  There is (was?) the V-prize for instance.  If you can send someone from Virginia to Paris or Dubai or New Deli or Sydney Australia or Tokyo in an hour then you may eventually have a much bigger market.  This may be the eventual direction Virgin wants to go.  I know Planet Space has talked about it and I think Benson Aerospace did too.  It might also be a good (Better?) market for cargo.

Of course the ultimate will be the capability to take people to orbit.  At least that how I feel anyway.  Once you get to orbit you're half way to anywhere.

Sub-orbital intercontinental flights need nearly as much energy as an orbital flight. Sub-orbital up-and-down joyrides nead only a tiny fraction of the energy required for an orbital flight. In essence, it doesn't really matter if you want to go from Virgin's SpaceShipTwo to an orbital spacecraft or to a sub-orbital crafts capable of point-to-point intercontinental flights.

[khallow]

I think Sub-Orbital Space tourism (Spaceflight to nowhere I have heard it called) will only end up being a very small part of the market.  I have read about the idea of "Point-to-Point" space travel.  There is (was?) the V-prize for instance.  If you can send someone from Virginia to Paris or Dubai or New Deli or Sydney Australia or Tokyo in an hour then you may eventually have a much bigger market.  This may be the eventual direction Virgin wants to go.  I know Planet Space has talked about it and I think Benson Aerospace did too.  It might also be a good (Better?) market for cargo.

Of course the ultimate will be the capability to take people to orbit.  At least that how I feel anyway.  Once you get to orbit you're half way to anywhere.

Sub-orbital intercontinental flights need nearly as much energy as an orbital flight. Sub-orbital up-and-down joyrides nead only a tiny fraction of the energy required for an orbital flight. In essence, it doesn't really matter if you want to go from Virgin's SpaceShipTwo to an orbital spacecraft or to a sub-orbital crafts capable of point-to-point intercontinental flights.

That's not a useful observation. From what I understand, intercontinental flight in atmosphere also needs a similar amount of energy to a suborbital intercontinental flight.

[Oberon_Command]

This is probably a silly idea, but what about equipping a SS2-type craft with SRBs? Obviously WK2 wouldn't be able to lift it as easily, but assume you had an upgraded White Knight aircraft to launch it. Could such a craft have at least point-to-point, cross-country capability (as opposed to intercontinental capability)?

[Danderman]

This is probably a silly idea, but what about equipping a SS2-type craft with SRBs? Obviously WK2 wouldn't be able to lift it as easily, but assume you had an upgraded White Knight aircraft to launch it. Could such a craft have at least point-to-point, cross-country capability (as opposed to intercontinental capability)?

SRBs big enough to make a difference would be far too heavy for WK2 to lift. Ground launch with SRBs would be a different story, but probably not safe enough for space tourists.

[Oberon_Command]

What about liquid strapons? Or would those result in even worse safety issues?

[Eerie]

That's not a useful observation. From what I understand, intercontinental flight in atmosphere also needs a similar amount of energy to a suborbital intercontinental flight.

Ye, right, because all this LIFT will magically remain above the
atmosphere, too.

Reality to khallow: there is a reason planes have wings.

[Danderman]

What about liquid strapons? Or would those result in even worse safety issues?

Probably not cost effective. Since VG is a private company, unless you are willing to pay the additional costs of your suggestions, none of this is likely to happen.