Author Topic: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast  (Read 14378 times)

Offline Orbiter

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #20 on: 05/29/2008 10:07 PM »
Untrue, the launch is October 8th correct? And after 2005's Hurricane Season..
Early October is still considered Prime conditions for Hurricanes, on the decreasing side.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, Falcon 9 CRS-9, Falcon 9 JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, Falcon 9 SES-11, Falcon Heavy Demo, Falcon 9 Es'hail-2.

Offline cb6785

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #21 on: 05/29/2008 10:16 PM »
STS-125 is currently October 8th and STS-126 November 10th
You know, if I’d had a seat you wouldn’t still see me in this thing. - Chuck Yeager

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Carsten Banach

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #22 on: 05/30/2008 03:50 AM »
95% chance of good weather for Saturday at KSC from what I'm seeing now... Just a token possibility of a shower somewhere in the vicinity giving some high clouds, but I have a hard time seeing that happen.
« Last Edit: 05/30/2008 03:51 AM by rdale »

Offline TALsite

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #23 on: 05/30/2008 07:52 AM »

Zaragoza looks unusable due to clouds and a chance of storms...

Hi all,
Greetings from Zaragoza…

We have a rainy May.  Good news for our planet, but bad days for flying Shuttles.

NOW Looking from my window:
we have a sunny day but the sky is becoming more and more cloudy.

In the image we saw predictions from the AEMET-Spain website.
First column shows:
Sky appearance
Rain possibilities % 
Snow presence in XX meters  (NOT INTERESTING)
Max. Temperature - Celsius  (NOT INTERESTING)
Min. - Celsius  (NOT INTERESTING)
Wind direction
Wind velocity (in kilometers/hour)
Max Ultra-Violet index (NOT INTERESTING)

Moron looks only a few better…


Offline DaveS

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #24 on: 05/30/2008 11:48 AM »
L-1 day OPS forecast for STS-124/1J:
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #25 on: 05/30/2008 02:15 PM »
SMG's abort landing forecasts -- all good except 2 out of 3 TAL's (FMI fine)

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      2102Z
                DATE:      05/31/08

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030                         7              12010P17


 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT020 BKN050 BKN100           7              10007P13
      CHC TSRA WI 20NM

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  SCT030 SCT070 BKN120           7              22009P15
      SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20NM

 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  SCT060 BKN120 OVC200           7              10007P13


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 NOR  SKC                            7              18006P11


 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 06/01/08 01Z TO 06/01/08 02Z
 EDW  SKC     

Offline cb6785

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #26 on: 05/30/2008 03:35 PM »
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

Todays forecast:

Saturday: - Major concern: Anvils
              -20% chance of weather prohibiting launch
              -0% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Sunday: - Major concern: Anvils
            -30% chance of weather prohibiting launch
            -5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Monday: - Major concern: Thunderstorms
            -60% chance of weather prohibiting launch
            -5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking
You know, if I’d had a seat you wouldn’t still see me in this thing. - Chuck Yeager

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Carsten Banach

Offline Orbiter

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #27 on: 05/30/2008 11:10 PM »
Possible Tropical Cyclone forming the the Atlantic, the remains of Alma crossed over.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, Falcon 9 CRS-9, Falcon 9 JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, Falcon 9 SES-11, Falcon Heavy Demo, Falcon 9 Es'hail-2.

Offline hobson911

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #28 on: 05/30/2008 11:54 PM »
The area that you are talking about is actually in the western Caribbean or near the Gulf of Belize. I do not think there is any worry as this system will move over the Yucatan Peninsula over the next couple days. rdale can shed a little light on this.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #29 on: 05/31/2008 12:55 AM »
I'm not much of a tropical guy - so I'll let the experts handle. No impact on launch.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF BELIZE.  DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA.  NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATELAMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO.  FUTURE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON
THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #30 on: 05/31/2008 03:27 AM »
98.36% chance of favorable weather at KSC for launch... Sunday looks fine now too - stormy weather not starting until Monday.

Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #31 on: 05/31/2008 03:38 AM »
EXCELLENT!!!  Thanks rdale!  I've been following your launch forcasts for over a year now and they've been spot on.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #32 on: 05/31/2008 04:54 AM »
Well, Apparently the system in the Caribbean has gained a closed Circulation now from Surface reports, and winds, and convection, but close to land. Its just a sign even a Day before a Space Shuttle Launch, a system can form. Watch the tropics closely this year.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, Falcon 9 CRS-9, Falcon 9 JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R, Falcon 9 SES-11, Falcon Heavy Demo, Falcon 9 Es'hail-2.

Offline MKremer

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #33 on: 05/31/2008 05:49 AM »
Well, Apparently the system in the Caribbean has gained a closed Circulation now from Surface reports, and winds, and convection, but close to land. Its just a sign even a Day before a Space Shuttle Launch, a system can form. Watch the tropics closely this year.

Tropical systems may be bubbling up a bit more than usual this year, but that doesn't mean the KSC region of FL is in any more danger than usual. (Location and tracking of any formed storm is what's important, rather than how many are predicted beforehand.)

This current disturbance is nothing to worry about as far as affecting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The latest computer model tracks: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200890_model.html

Offline astrobrian

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #34 on: 05/31/2008 07:51 AM »
98.36% chance of favorable weather at KSC for launch... Sunday looks fine now too - stormy weather not starting until Monday.
Could you be more precise in your estimates sir, those number are far too vague  ;D ::) ;)

Offline rfoshaug

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #35 on: 05/31/2008 09:28 AM »
98.36% chance of favorable weather at KSC for launch... Sunday looks fine now too - stormy weather not starting until Monday.

Wow, that's a very accurate estimate of the inaccuracies involved in weather prediction. :)

It looks really good then! :) Thanks for all the updates, rdale and everyone!!

Offline cb6785

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #36 on: 05/31/2008 11:21 AM »
Launch day's forecast:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

Today: - Major concern: Anvils
           -20% chance of weather prohibiting launch
           -0% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Sunday: - Major concern: Anvils
            -30% chance of weather prohibiting launch
            -5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Monday: - Major concern: Thunderstorms
            -60% chance of weather prohibiting launch
            -5% chance of weather prohibiting tanking

Nothing's changed from yesterday. :)
You know, if I’d had a seat you wouldn’t still see me in this thing. - Chuck Yeager

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Carsten Banach

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #37 on: 05/31/2008 03:50 PM »
Orbiter - to make it clear - the current system (tropical or not) has no impact on today's launch.

TAL: Rain at Zaragoza and forecast to continue. Good at Moron but forecast to worsen. Good at Istres and forecast to remain good.

Couple of raindrops developing west of the SLF, no concern as the sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon. No wind at all through about 45000ft, so unless a BIG storm develops west of Daytona Beach, anvils shouldn't be an issue.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #38 on: 05/31/2008 05:40 PM »
Weak showers popping west of SLF still and moving west... Zaragoza has had rain all morning, now throwing thunder in. Moron partly cloudy and now forecast to stay good, Istres sunny but chance of a thunderstorm in the area later.

Offline siegfriedcqb

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Re: STS-124: Launch Weather Forecast
« Reply #39 on: 05/31/2008 07:12 PM »

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